Reese Kaplan -- Could Jay Bruce Have a Mets Future?

While many people routinely take potshots at Sandy Alderson for a variety of reasons, he’s actually had a few defenders emerge from the woodwork regarding the whole Jay Bruce situation.  These folks are all pretty much trumpeting the same tune – that Bruce is in a contract year prior to free agency and will likely have extra motivation to do well, you can’t just dump a 30 HR hitter for a bag of balls, and Michael Conforto has not yet done in the majors what Bruce has done for many years.

It’s an interesting conundrum and certainly not the worst problem in the world to have – too many left handed power hitters.  With Bruce, Curtis Granderson and Lucas Duda, the Mets have a triumvirate of 30 HR hitters who, if healthy, could actually propel them out of the lower tiers of run production in the National League.  All three are playing the final years of their contracts before becoming free agents, so it occurred to me to try to ascertain what they might be worth when that time rolls around.

Bruce is probably the easiest one to figure out.  There’s an excellent comp in Baltimore’s Mark Trumbo.  He just re-upped with the Orioles for 3 years and $37.5 million, an average of $12.5 million per year.  For reference, Bruce is making $13 million right now, so that’s right on track with what you’d expect to pay.  How close are they offensively?  Well, the soon-to-be-31 Trumbo averages 34 HRs, 99 RBIs and .251 with 163 Ks.  He provides an OBP of .303, SLG of .473 and OPS of .776.  His one year younger mirror image doppelganger provides 31 HRs, 94 RBIs and a .248 AVG with 158 Ks.  He provides an OBP of .318, SLG of .467 and OPS of .785.  Consequently a 3 year $37.5 to $39 million contract would seem to be what he’s reasonably worth.

Now the question becomes would the Mets be interested?  In Trumbo’s favor he could play 1B or the OF.  He’s spent almost equal amounts of time in both positions whereas Bruce is exclusively an outfielder with just 3 games at 1B.  However, left handed bats are often more difficult to obtain than right handed, so that tips the scales in Bruce’s favor a bit.  Call it a wash.  That brings us back to the question of whether or not he fits on the Mets?

Well, if you assume Curtis Granderson is a goner given his age, declining production and big price tag, then there is an opening in the OF for sure.  Whether or not Conforto could become a passable CFer is anyone’s guess at this point but Jay Bruce’s best position is probably DH.  They paid Granderson more to play RF than what we’re projecting here for Bruce and with Trumbo’s deal as a yardstick they might be able to shave off that 4^th year. 

Of course, a lot depends on what they intend to do at the 1B position as well.  In many ways Lucas Duda is a clone of Bruce and Trumbo – high power, high strikeouts, low batting average but at a lower price point.  He has had that back injury and will be watched like a hawk during 2017.  With Dom Smith working his way rapidly through the farm system, the Mets might be inclined to let him walk away, particularly if he has a subpar year due to poor production or injury.  Right now at $7.25 million for a 30 HR bat he’s a bargain but come 2018 he’ll be looking to cash in.  Would you bring him back?

  

Duda averages .246/26/81 with 144 Ks over a 162 game period.  His other metrics are actually a bit better than Trumbo or Bruce – OBP of .343 SLG of .449 and OPS of .792.  He’s had some injuries (most notably the back surgery in 2016).  A not perfect but adequate comp would be Kendrys Morales who spent much of his career at 1B before turning into a DH.  He averages .273/25/92 over 162 games.  He’s a switch hitter but older at 34.  He just recently signed a 3 year deal with Toronto for $33 million.  I’m thinking on that basis Duda is probably looking at about $27 to 30 million for 3 years. 

Personally I think you either have to extend Duda before the season ends or let him walk away.  You don’t want to get into the Neil Walker QO debacle again.  Extending him seems unlikely as it would block Dom Smith who would provide theoretically a higher batting average and better defense though lesser power.  More importantly to the bean counters, he would cost minimum wage whereas Duda would be in the $10 million or so range. 

My feeling is that the OF pipeline for the Mets is fairly thin.  Obviously Yoenis Cespedes is a fixture in LF.  Whether or not they feel Conforto can play CF is the issue.  It’s the reason I think they’ll send him to Las Vegas to play CF every day, more than to prove he can hit.  If he shows he’s capable of being adequate at the position then it opens up mid-year trade possibilities of Granderson.  If not, then it may be Bruce who they let walk at year end if Conforto’s bat looks solid but the CF play is not.  With at minimum Granderson’s and Duda’s money coming off the books, that’s $22 million – more than enough to absorb Bruce and have plenty left over for pitchers’ salary increases.  Remember, Bruce was not as bad as he looked in August and probably not as good as he looked in the final weeks of September.  The reality is that he’s pretty darned good with the bat, though…and if you want that then you have to pay for it.  

***Separate issue*** Many are applauding loudly for the Mets' 11th hour successes inking Fernando Salas and Jerry Blevins to return to the club.  Don't get me wrong.  Those pitchers are fine additions and shore up a projected-to-be leaky bullpen.  It's what should have been done.  Whether those pitchers are the right ones is a subject of some debate, but you're certainly not going to be hurt by offering those contracts.

The problem is that the club is once again exercising its philosophy of maintaining the status quo.  Both of these pitchers (like Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker) were here last year.  The list of players who have departed (other than Bartolo Colon) likely won't be missed.  The issue is that the club is treading water instead of attempting to move forward.  Had you won the World Series then not changing a thing could perhaps be justified.  We all know they eked into the playoffs and were out after a single game.  You'd think that suggests there is room for improvement.

Celebrate the return of two fine pitchers but don't let up on demanding more.