Reese Kaplan -- Dead Man Walking or MOTY?

I participate in a couple of ongoing text exchanges with Mets fans.  On the one not related to this site, there was an interesting question posed recently that really caught me somewhat off guard.  Here’s the hypothetical…going into July it seemed as if Mickey Callaway might not even make it until the end of the season.  Speculation was already rampant about Joe Girardi, Buck Showalter and others who might be available as mid-season replacements.

Now with the advent of the winning streak fueled by a lot of offense from Michael Conforto and Amed Rosario while Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso have cooled off a bit, what is his future?  Then came the bombshell question.  If the Mets somehow pulled off a miraculous run into the post-season, would Mickey be a serious candidate for Manager of the Year?  

Personally, I think the unheralded Mike Shildt of the Cardinals who sports a combined record as interim skipper in 2018 and full time manager in 2019 of 68-44, keeping the Cards in 1^st place should get the nod.  However, it’s not as crazy a question as it would have been a month ago. In fact, who’d have even asked that question with a straight face? 

Clearly, when Mickey assumed the helm he seemed in over his head and his early managerial mistakes with lineups, double switches and other aspects of the game we take for granted made it seem like the out-of-the-box thinking by the Wilpons in hiring him was more likely because missing the box meant he came at a bargain price.  He was inked to a three-year deal worth approximately $850K per season which would put him in the lowest quintile of managers in the majors, though interestingly ahead of the Braves’ Brian Snitker, the Red Sox’ Alex Cora and the Phillies’ Gabe Kapler.  Still, compared to the $6 million per year Joe Maddon, Bruce Bochy and Mike Scioscia get, that’s chump change.

What was truly puzzling to most Mets fans was the lackluster effort from his staff.  He was brought here as a pitching guru, yet many of his hurlers were struggling mightily.  The first shoe dropped when BVW suggested to Dave Eiland he might want to consider employment elsewhere.  Most were interpreting that to mean Mickey Callaway’s ice had gotten even thinner.  He was the next one at risk of breaking through and drowning.

When they then announced the new blood being brought in to help the staff was 82 year old Phil Regan who was a contemporary of Sandy Koufax, the media and fans had an LOLmets field day. 

Well, it may appear that BVW is having the last laugh as the pitching line since Regan’s arrival has been pretty terrific.  The club ERA including bullpen meltdowns is still a very respectable 3.89 ERA with 317 strikeouts in 303 IP.  They are 18-15 over that stretch and boast a better than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio.  Wow, throw strikes, get better results…what a concept!

So now let’s get back to the question at hand.  If the Mets continue their winning ways, how much credit does Mickey deserve, how much does Phil Regan deserve and, shockingly, how much does Brodie Van Wagenen deserve?  It’s amazing what a winning streak does for people’s attitudes.  More importantly, since he was not hired by BVW, does he survive to fulfill the third year of his contract?

Mack – Transactions,Harol Gonzalez, Andres Gimenez, Wagner Lagrange, Matt Cleveland, Jaison Vilera

Wednesday, July 31st  -

The Mets current rotation (deGrom, Stroman, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz) ERA since the all-star break:  1.52

C Ali Sanchez promoted from AA-Binghamton to AAA-Syracuse

A-Columbia…

      Transferred RP Connor O’Neil to A+ St. Lucie

      Released OF Taylor Lane

      Activated RP Colin Holderman from the IL

AAA-Syracuse…

      Placed C Colton Plaia on the IL

AA-Binghamton…

      Activates C Austin Bossart

            From Jason Vargas deal

Kudos –

AAA-Syracuse – RP Harol Gonzalez: 1-IP, 0-R, K

Interesting… both he and Chris Flexen are 

relieving now at the AAA level. Are these two future members of the Mets pen?

AA-Binghamton – SS Andres Gimenez: 2-2, 2-R, 6^th HR, .249

His power seems to be developing and, let’s remember… he his playing at a level where the average age is 2 years older than him.

A+ St. Lucie – LF Wagner Lagrange – 3-4, 3-R, RBI, ,409

I had Wagner as a red start prospect for parts of last season and I am giving it back to him now. He’s the best outfield prospect we have until Freddy Valdez is ready 5 years from now.

A – Columbia – RP Alec Kisena: 5-IP, 0-R, 6-K

Low-A Brooklyn – SP Matt Cleveland: 4.2-IP, 0-R, 8-K, 3.48

            Who is Matt Cleveland, you ask?

The 21/yr. old Matt was a 12^th round pick in the 2016 draft, out of Windsor HS (CT). Frankly, he has trudged around since turning pro until the last 4 starts (2-ER in 21.1-IP).

Rookie-Kingsport – RP Josh Hejka: 1-IP, 0-R, 0.00

GCL – RP Robert Colina: 5-IP, 0-R, 3-K, 2.10

DSL-2 – RP Martin Rodriguez: 4.2-IP, 0-R, K

Thursday, August 1^st –

RHP Jaison Vilera was promoted from A-Columbia to A+ St. Lucie.

The 22-year old Venezuelan had an all-star year in 2017 for the GCL-Mets (11-G, 8-ST, 3-1, 1.88, 0.96) and in 2018 for Brooklyn (13-ST, 5-2, 1.83, 0.98), but he had a rough ride so far this season in Columbia (6-G, 5-ST, 1-3, 9.00, 1.92).Very wild this year, with 30-BB in 61.1 combined innings pitched for the Fireflies, Brooklyn, St. Lucie, and Binghamton.

Ley’s hope he takes a step back now and start over with this promotion.

      Kudos –

            AAA-Syracuse – RP Matt Blackham: 1.1-IP, 0-R, 0.00

            AA-Binghamton – RP Blake Taylor: 2.1-IP, 0-R, 2-K

            A-Columbia – SS Ronny Mauricio: 1-2, R, RBI, .284

            Low-A Brooklyn – RP Hunter Parsons: 2-IP, 0-R, K

Rookie-Kingsport – SS Sebastian Espino: 3-4, 3-R, 2^nd HR, 4-RBI

            DSL-2 – SP Alan Ramirez – 6-IP, 0-R, 3-K, 3.41

                  First year pro, born in July 1999.

OPEN THREAD - J.D. Davis

So, the Mets have this guy that is 26/yrs.old, plays third base, both corner outfield positions, does little wrong and hits around .300 from both lefties and righties.

So...

Here's the question...

Where would J.D. Davis best fit as an every day player?

No Fun Writing About Chevy Vegas and Ford Pintos

Back in the early 1970s, I almost bought a brand new Chevy Vega for $2,300.  Including tax.  Yep, you read that right.  What a beauty.

Cheap indeed...but even at $2,300, I would not have gotten my money's worth. 

It was a crappy rust bucket of a car that would have fallen apart in no time.  

Wikipedia described it as follows:

The Vega received praise and awards at its introduction, including 1971 Motor Trend Car of the Year. 

Subsequently the car became widely known for a range of problems related to its engineering, reliability, safety, propensity to rust, and engine durability. 

Imagine being the Car and Driver magazine writer assigned to do a review on the Vega...."I became a journalist for this?"

One good Vega point, though...theft protection.  At a time where as many as 100,000 cars were stolen annually in the 5 boroughs of NYC, who'd want to steal a Vega? 

Even with the doors unlocked and keys in the ignition? Uhh, nobody, that's who.

How about the fabulous Ford Pinto? Similar cheap junk, but with exploding gas tank problems to boot.  Cheap...crappy.  

Enter the much more reliable Toyota Corolla, stage right, to steal huge market share from Chevy and Ford.

Writing about the Mets is often like writing about the Chevy Vega.  Hard to be positive. 

"Well, that Vega right there?  It usually starts, so it's mostly reliable, is normally faster than walking, and the rust should not start showing for at least 18 months.  So how many Vegas do you want?"

Yes, sometimes, it is equally hard to write about our Mets.  They are NY's baseball Vega or Pinto, your choice.

Nothing like writing about that beautiful Lamborghini in the Bronx, that much I can tell you.

Reese Kaplan -- Making Sense of Doing Less Than Expected

I happen to own some land in the country of Panama where I’d planned to retire.  Recently there were a few developments that had me reconsidering that option.  The local government decided to expand the nearby national park and thus demand that private property in the area adhere to the same ecosystem constraints.  That made building rather difficult.  Then there was a bit of a mudslide that eroded some of the hillside.  Consequently I considered selling the property.  I was not forced to do so and would probably only agree to relinquish it if someone met what I felt was a fair asking price.

On Wednesday morning Mack asked me in a comment after my article what I thought the Mets would do between then and the afternoon’s trading deadline.  I volunteered that I felt they would do nothing, and, like a broken clock, it was one of two times that day I was right about something.  Despite all the speculation, haranguing and hoopla after the Marcus Stroman and Jason Vargas deals, my gut simply told me that what you see is what you is what you get. 

Right now there’s a lot of teeth gnashing and BVW bashing over the fact that Mssrs. Syndergaard, Wheeler, Diaz, Ramos, Frazier and Lagares are still part of the Mets active roster.  There are a lot of ways to spin it, but the one I feel makes the most sense is probably close to the reality of what happened.  Over the past several years we have seen the great devaluation of expiring contracts with rental players (Aroldis Chapman notwithstanding) rarely bringing back anyone of note.  Remember, Brodie Van Wagenen got this gig by selling the owners on the idea that the team could compete in 2019 for the post-season.  Until recently, it appeared that the emperor had no clothes, but then a funny thing happened on the way to the forum.  The Mets started winning.  Right now they’re on a six-game winning streak and have won 7 of their last 8. 

In many Asian cultures the idea of saving face is a woven deeply into the cultural fabric.  Apparently BVW’s new outfit is made of just such cloth and he was given the opportunity to do that as a result of this well-timed hot streak.  Rather than give away a Todd Frazier for the proverbial bag o’ balls (or sub-Mendoza 26 year old AA catcher), he was now able to enjoy the luxury of being in the driver’s seat when it came to trade offers.  He was not forced simply to dump salary (as apologists for his predecessors claim during the fire sales of 2017 and 2018).  He was in the proverbial catbird seat with a starting rotation that had been upgraded through the substitution of All Star Marcus Stroman in place of the mostly good in 2019 but awful in 2018 Jason Vargas.  The whole five aces scenario we’ve heard about for many years could possibly even rear its powerful head for once with both Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom turning in 11 K performances to go along with Steven Matz throwing his best game of the season.  Brodie was having his Panama moment…try to improve but if nothing looked dramatically better, what you’ve got is still pretty damned good. 

Now I was one of the folks firmly in the “trade Wheeler” camp since I can’t see them going the $18 million Qualifying Offer route after having been burned once with that gamble when Neil Walker took them up on their foolish generosity.  However, keeping Zack Wheeler gives you the opportunity to see if he has indeed turned a corner once again after his recent injury, and opens up an exclusive negotiating window to extend his contract prior to him hitting free agency.  In fact, in a way you’ve shown some love to Wheeler by NOT trading him away a’la Jeurys Familia.  Yes, you could always re-sign him after the season’s end, but maybe the faith you’ve shown in him signals that he is indeed valued by the organization. 

Even beleaguered reliever Edwin Diaz who, according to backup catcher Tomas Nido, was “pitching scared” looked as if the weight of the world was off his shoulders Wednesday night.  Yes, he did give up a solo home run to diminutive centerfielder Leury Garcia after striking out the first two batters in the 9^th, but he recovered quickly and struck out Ryan Goins as well to put it in the books.  You can’t teach that kind of stuff and now that he knows he’s not on the trading block, perhaps we will finally get to see the pitcher who set records in Seattle last year.

There’s not much that can be done about Robinson Cano or Jeurys Familia.  They are what they are and you’re stuck with them for the long haul.  However, you’re no longer required to showcase others.  One can also hope that the insistence on playing the mediocre Todd Frazier with the expiring contract over at third base will cease and instead relegate him to the bench or late inning defensive replacement in order to see more of the surprisingly productive J.D. Davis.  Let’s hope it’s not a Terry Collins-esque run of playing Jose Reyes who would not be a part of the future at the expensive of a younger player who will be.  One can also hope that Juan Lagares has seen his last start as a Met. 

Yes, things had a way of unfolding not quite the way anyone expected, but rather than blast BVW who might otherwise have made a “shake things up” trade for the sake of doing something, he stuck to his guns asking high prices for his assets and when equitable offers were not made, his fallback position was to keep playing winning baseball with the addition of an All-Star pitcher.  That’s not bad at all. 

Rumble Ponies Game Notes#108: Rumble Ponies (21-22, 56-51) vs. Erie SeaWolves (30-11, 61-46) - 6:35PM

BINGHAMTON RUMBLE PONIES (21-22, 56-51), 2nd Eastern Division (New York Mets)		ERIE SEAWOLVES (30-11, 61-46), 1st  Western Division (Detroit Tigers)
	Thursday, August 1, 2019 • 6:35 PM NYSEG Stadium • Binghamton, NY RHP Mickey Jannis  (5-2, 3.82 ERA) vs. RHP Anthony Castro (4-2, 4.22 ERA)

TONIGHT: The Binghamton Rumble Ponies wrap up their four-game series with the Erie Seawolves at NYSEG Stadium. This is the final meeting of the two teams this season.

LAST TIME OUT: The Rumble Ponies and the SeaWolves split their doubleheader Wednesday with the Ponies, winning game one 6-3 and the Wolves taking game two 3-0. In game one, Andres Gimenez started the scoring with a solo homer in the second. The Ponies then batted around in the fourth and scored five runs off Casey Mize to take control of the game. The Wolves scored all three of their runs in the seventh. Kevin Smith earned the win with six scoreless innings. In game two, Erie scored all three of its runs in the second off Joseph Shaw. The Ponies were limited the three hits and left the bases loaded twice. Drew Carlton earned the win with 2.1 scoreless innings of relief.

TOFFEY DRIVES IN TWO: As part of the Ponies’ five-run fourth inning in game one, Will Toffey drilled a two-run double to left. He raised his RBI total to 24 on the season. Toffey finished the game 2-2 with two RBI, two doubles and a run scored.

GIMENEZ VS. ERIE: Andres Gimenez went 2-2 in game one Wednesday with a solo homer and a double. He is now hitting .422 (19-45) with five RBI, five doubles and three home runs in 14 games against the SeaWolves. Seven of his team-high 21 stolen bases have come against Erie.

  

CECCHINI HITS IN BOTH GAMES OF DH: Gavin Cecchini was the only Rumble Pony to get a hit in both games of yesterday’s doubleheader. He went 1-3 with an RBI in game one and 1-4 in game two. Cecchini has gotten a hit in six of the last seven games and 10 of the last 12. He has nine RBI over the last 12 games.

ZANGHI SHUTS DOWN ERIE: RHP Joe Zanghi threw 3.2 no-hit innings of relief in game two Wednesday. It was his longest outing of the season as he struck out three and issued just one walk. He faced the minimum in all three innings he started.

KRIZAN’S SCORCHING JULY: Jason Krizan hit .333 for the month, which was second best in the Eastern League behind Altoona’s Jared Oliva, who hit .388. Krizan also tallied 12 doubles, which is tied for the most in the league. He won EL Player of the Week for July 15-21.

FINAL GAME OF HOMESTAND: The Ponies are playing the final game of an eight-game homestand. So far, they are they are 4-3 after taking three of four from Bowie and dropping two of the first three to Erie.

COMING UP: The Rumble Ponies begin a short three-game road trip in Akron, playing the RubberDucks Friday night at 7:05PM. RHP Tommy Wilson takes the mound against lefty Tanner Tully.

OPEN THREAD - Jeurys Familia

The return of former stud closer, Jeurys Familia, just hasn't worked out. He's suffering from something called 'Bennet Lesion'

A Bennett lesion is a bone spur at the posterior glenoid that is often seen in baseball players and usually asymtomatic; however, it sometimes becomes painful, but the mechansism of throwing pain is still unknown.

Got that?

So... here's the question...

Should they shut down Jeurys Familia for the remainder of this year and deal with his Bennet Lesion?

Mack – Transactions,

Sunday, July 28^th –

The Mets traded SPs Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods-Ricardson to Toronto, in return for ace starter Marcus Stoman

Syracuse…

     

      RHP Eric Hanhold was promoted from AA-Binghamton

      RHP Walker Lockett returned to AAA-Syracuse

      OF Aaron Altherr was sent to the MLB-Mets

      RHSP Corey Oswalt was placed on the 7-day IL    

Binghamton –

      RP Yeizo Campos promoted from A+ St. Lucie

            1.10-ERA in 20-appearances for Lucy,

Kudos –

      AAA-Syracuse – RP Chris Flexen: 2.2-IP, 0-R, K

      AA-Binghamton – RP Adonis Uceta – 2-IP, 0-R, 2-K, 1.81

      A+ St. Lucie – RP Darwin Ramos: 1.2-IP, 0-R, 2-K, 0.58

      A-Columbia – 1B Chase Chambers: 3-4, RBI

      Low-A Brooklyn – SP Collin Holderman: 3-IP, 0-R, 4-K, 1.80

      Rookie – Kingsport – 3B Brett Baty: 2-4, 2-R, 3^rd HR, 3-RBI

      GCL - SP Matthew Allan: 1-IP,0-R, 2-K, 0.00

Monday, July 29^th –

      The Mets traded SP Jason Vargas to Philadelphia for AA catcher Austin Bossart

            Makes little sense to me. The best you can get for your second best starter down the stretch is a ‘bullpen catcher’?

      Kudos –

      AAA-Syracuse – IF Arismendy Alcantata: 3-4, R, .309

      A-Columbia – RP Willy Tavares: 2-IP, 0-R, 2-K 

      DSL-1 – SP Williams Valencia: 5-IP, 0-R, 3-K

      DSL-2 – RP Eiker Huizi: 4.1-IP,0-R, 5-K

Tuesday, July 30^th –

AA-Binghamton 3B, Quinn Brodey, reactivated off of the temp-IL list

AA-Binghamton returns OF Jacob Zanon to A+ St. Lucie

OF Chandler Avant was sent to A-Columbia frol Low-A Brooklyn

RP Pedro Marinez assigned FROM A+ St. Lucie to DSL-1

      ???

Kudos –

AAA-Syracuse – RP Matt Blackham: 1-IP, 0-R, 0.00

     

      AA-Binghamton – RP Stephen Villines:  2-IP, 0-R, 1.15

        A+ St. Lucie – C Dan Rizzie: 4-4, R, 2-RBI

      A-Columbia – LF Jhoander Saez: 2-4, RBI, .292

Low-A Brooklyn –  RP Jared Biddy: 5^th game, 2-IP, 0-R, K, 0.00

      Rookie-Kingsport – RP Dan Goggin: 2.1-IP, 0-R, 2-K, 2.50

      GCL –  RP Jhonfran Escalona: 5-IP, 0-R, 5-K, 0.68

      DSL-1 – SP Kelvin Hernandez: 4-IP, 0-R, 5-K

      DSL-2 – RP Melvin Arteaga-IP:  3.1-IP, 0-R, 2-K

Mike Freire - An Alternative Look At The Stroman Trade

Good Morning, Mets' fans.

It has been a while since I contributed to this wonderful blog, due to a variety of "life circumstances" to include retiring from my job and relocating to a different part of the country.  Things are still a bit up in the air, but once things settle down, I would like to become a regular contributor once again. 

But, enough about my personal life, right?

Like most fans of this team, there are MANY reasons to take a step back and scratch your head.  If it isn't a poor personnel decision (the infamous Robinson Cano trade), it is inexplicable bad luck (David Wright's situation, or Yoenis Cespedes in general) or "out of character" poor performances (most of our new players, to include Edwin Diaz).  It would be easy to get frustrated and simply give up, "because Mets" (I guess that is how the kids theses days make statements, provided I used the term the right way).

Which brings us to the Mets' most recent player acquisition, the "prodigal son" Marcus Stroman.

On first blush, the fans and the local media were stunned that BVW put together the best trade package for one of the best arms available on the trade market.  After all, the team seems to be spinning it's wheels this year and isn't viewed as a realistic playoff contender (despite the muddled state of the NL Wild Card race).  So in "logical" fashion, the fan base and the local media followed up with a barrage a snarky, negative responses that included previous mistakes (Victor Zambrano) from past regimes.

The team was labeled as "clueless" and even the national media (ESPN) jumped in and took a few shots at the team (which appears to be in vogue for that network), despite the fact that the rest of BVW's plan has yet to be revealed.  It shouldn't be a surprise since that is how the general media operates these days, but it is still a bit offensive in my opinion.  After all, not two days later, another team that is viewed as "out of contention" (Cincinnati) made a similar trade (Trevor Bauer) and it has been lauded as "smart" and "forward thinking".  Or, imagine if the Yankees had picked up Stroman instead!  Cashman would have been labeled as a "genius" and it would have been an example of a team that isn't afraid to "go for it", etc.

Despite the deserved criticism for his other moves, I think BVW actually got this one right and he should be complimented on this trade.

As of this morning (07/31), the team has reeled off five wins in a row, which puts them five games back of a Wild Card position, with five teams ahead of them (that's a lot of fives).  They are 51-55 with 56 games left to play this year.  Are they a serious playoff contender?  Probably not, but you can't tell me (ever the optimist) that a continued hot streak wouldn't put them in position to challenge for a playoff spot.  The Nationals, Cubs and Phillies are all clustered at the top of the Wild Card standings and they are on pace to win approximately 86 games.

The Mets would have to go 35-21 down the stretch to give themselves a legitimate chance, which equates to a .625 winning percentage (or in other words, a 100 win pace for a full season).  Not likely, but not out of the question.  Barring any trades later today, they will have a starting rotation of DeGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman, Wheeler and Matz the rest of the way, which is formidable and more then capable of a stretch like that.

Removing my head from the clouds, this trade also makes sense for next year and it is the real reason why BVW should be praised.  Remember, the team will likely lose Wheeler and it already offloaded the "fiery" Vargas.  Again, barring any additional trades, next year's rotation would have been a bit light, so adding a valuable starter like Stroman now addresses that need a few months early and it is cost effective compared to a free agent signing.  Better still, it gives the team a full year to evaluate Stroman before he is due for a new contract, so it is a "try before you buy" scenario.

Look, I am as disgusted as anyone with how BVW's signature move (Cano trade) has panned out so far, but try not to let that alter your judgement on this deal.  It is a savvy, preemptive move that addresses this year AND next year, for the cost of two minor league pitchers who may or may not turn into what Stroman already is.