Mack, Amish appears to have power, but is limited in what position he can play, and strikes out a lot with a low batting average. Agbayani several years away from the majors.
I know nothing about Agbayani. Typical Stearns' choice... on IL most of this season
Amick was a big star at Clemson. Ran to Tennessee for NIL $. Became an even bigger bat. Plays both third and first. High K/9%. BA below .219. 23 HRs so far this season in AA ball
Read my post tomorrow on prospects traded for at the deadline. History is not on our side :-). So expectations should be low and you are buying lottery tickets when you trade someone you only control for 2 months on a team going nowhere. Minter is not the pitcher he was and is largely not available over 1+ years of service. We did fine for him. He will be back on the free agent market this offseason. We can always pursue him again if it makes any sense to do so. The opportunity costs of trading him are extremely low and we were rewarded more than fairly. Any other judgment depends on actual performance of the players going forward.
I think the most interesting thing to note about this trade and the Peterson trade is that in the first two we made we received Mathis and Amick -- both potential power bats who play 1st and 3rd. Look beyond the names and what you see is the recognition that we currently have very little on the farm at either of those positions. Before adding them, we had only Guzman as a real possibility and maybe Morel and Reimer. In other words, we were not time aligned at key infield positions. I am a fan of Voit's for several reasons, but we could use a 2B while he gets ready and even a bit more by the way of AA or AAA talent at the position until we see what we ultimately have in Pena and Asigen. Moreover, if Lindor gets moved in the offseason, Voit is our most likely SS replacement. So look for the Mets to be looking for infielders at AA in other trade packages. That's why I liked Adam Smith's packaging idea so much. It will be very interesting to see if the Mets trade Peralta to the Cubs and get Matt Shaw back as part of the return. That will be the final confirmation of what the Mets think about their upper tier infielders in the high minors.
The trade was very much expected. We will miss the lefty effectiveness of Minter, but as mentioned earlier we only had him for three more months anyways, so it is a benefit to trim salary and add talent to the minors.
Getting Agbayani is kinda like getting Acuna a few years earlier. If it wasn't for the last name, there would be no fanfare around him as a prospect. He will probably have helium if for no other reason than who his dad is. This trade is just OK. Minter was starting to look cooked again, and if getting rid of him now before he goes t*ts up nets two lottery tickets and saves $7M that's the definition of an OK trade. On to bigger things!
We've tried that before in Verlander and Scherzer without success. I think people generally miss a pretty straightforward point. At the deadline very few trades are made around the principle of known quality for known quality. If you want to purchase even a high probability prospect your trading partner sees themselves as giving up a sure fire major leaguer and you have to pay accordingly. These are players they have under control, and have very little evidence of their ceiling so they work from an uncontested, even if false, conception of the ceiling. You really have to pay to buy that kind of talent. you get virtually no discount for uncertainty. The seller's situation gives them every reason to have you, not them, bear the cost of uncertainty -- unless you overwhelm them. I am in favor of what I call a portfolio approach to the trade deadline. That means that is exactly what you do with some potential gets, and exactly the opposite of what you do with most. Here is an example. There was almost noting rational you could add to the Mintor trade to ensure that you get a near can't miss prospect. And that is because the TC only get Mintor for 2+ months period.
This is why Alvarez is our best trade pick. He is already a major leaguer and young and performing at a reasonable level in the majors. He is literally the only one you can trade of those you are willing to trade that gets you back a major league ready potential All Star performer/pros[ect and that is because you get the additional benefit of Alvarez being a catcher, among the hardest positionts so fill well. I don't think people know how to properly assess the relevant variables in these trades. The second best trade asset at the deadline is Weaver because he is already an established A + set up man this year and a potential closer next year. That's high level performance at teh major league level. Package him with a league average young but versatile major leaguer in Baty and you can get back a major league average solid performer, or a prospect who has that outcome as his floor. That' s how it works. Everything else is fair value lottery ticket swaps. Nothing more. Wake up to the reality. You want your future second baseman or shortstop from the Brewers, you have to give them their closer or catcher or outfielder of the future. You can't just add quantity. It doesn't work that way.. Period. If you value Tong as a potential starter, mid rotation or above, then you demand a position player in the minors who is likely to be the equivalent of CJ Abrams. or it makes no sense to make the trade. Period. so it turns out the only trades that make sense are ones that are not likely to be consequential for either team long term. It's so obvious from a rational choice point of view, yet most of the ink is spilt on discussions of trades that make no sense from the point of view of both parties. Stop already
20 comments:
To me, trading someone with two months to go in the season that is a free agent when the season is over can only be good.
If everyone you traded flops, you still save the remaining salary on the player traded.
Mack,
Amish appears to have power, but is limited in what position he can play, and strikes out a lot with a low batting average. Agbayani several years away from the majors.
I know nothing about Agbayani. Typical Stearns' choice... on IL most of this season
Amick was a big star at Clemson. Ran to Tennessee for NIL $. Became an even bigger bat. Plays both third and first. High K/9%. BA below .219. 23 HRs so far this season in AA ball
Mets aree chain weak at both third and first. For that reason alone, Amick is a good choice.
I would target him to one position and try to work with him to not become the next Ryan Clifford
Great team player. High energy.
Read my post tomorrow on prospects traded for at the deadline. History is not on our side :-). So expectations should be low and you are buying lottery tickets when you trade someone you only control for 2 months on a team going nowhere. Minter is not the pitcher he was and is largely not available over 1+ years of service. We did fine for him. He will be back on the free agent market this offseason. We can always pursue him again if it makes any sense to do so. The opportunity costs of trading him are extremely low and we were rewarded more than fairly. Any other judgment depends on actual performance of the players going forward.
Polanca and Robert are neck-and-neck.
I think the most interesting thing to note about this trade and the Peterson trade is that in the first two we made we received Mathis and Amick -- both potential power bats who play 1st and 3rd. Look beyond the names and what you see is the recognition that we currently have very little on the farm at either of those positions. Before adding them, we had only Guzman as a real possibility and maybe Morel and Reimer. In other words, we were not time aligned at key infield positions. I am a fan of Voit's for several reasons, but we could use a 2B while he gets ready and even a bit more by the way of AA or AAA talent at the position until we see what we ultimately have in Pena and Asigen.
Moreover, if Lindor gets moved in the offseason, Voit is our most likely SS replacement. So look for the Mets to be looking for infielders at AA in other trade packages. That's why I liked Adam Smith's packaging idea so much.
It will be very interesting to see if the Mets trade Peralta to the Cubs and get Matt Shaw back as part of the return. That will be the final confirmation of what the Mets think about their upper tier infielders in the high minors.
I agree. I wish the Mets traded two valuable guys, and not just Minter, to the Twins, and got a top 5 prospect.
Why would ANYONE want Polanco the Expensive Gimp?
As I have said, the weakest links in the chain are third and first
Polanco could get you a ticket to a Milli Vanilli concert
Back row, obstructed view
Agreed Mack. Hopefully they get a better return if they trade Holmes or Weaver.
Questionable defense, high K%, RH power bat who doesn’t walk a lot, who’s hitting .217 in AA at nearly 24 yrs old?
Guess we’d better hope that Benny’s kid turns into something.
The trade was very much expected. We will miss the lefty effectiveness of Minter, but as mentioned earlier we only had him for three more months anyways, so it is a benefit to trim salary and add talent to the minors.
Getting Agbayani is kinda like getting Acuna a few years earlier. If it wasn't for the last name, there would be no fanfare around him as a prospect. He will probably have helium if for no other reason than who his dad is. This trade is just OK. Minter was starting to look cooked again, and if getting rid of him now before he goes t*ts up nets two lottery tickets and saves $7M that's the definition of an OK trade. On to bigger things!
We should have paid the salaries to actually try to acquire real talent
We've tried that before in Verlander and Scherzer without success. I think people generally miss a pretty straightforward point. At the deadline very few trades are made around the principle of known quality for known quality. If you want to purchase even a high probability prospect your trading partner sees themselves as giving up a sure fire major leaguer and you have to pay accordingly. These are players they have under control, and have very little evidence of their ceiling so they work from an uncontested, even if false, conception of the ceiling. You really have to pay to buy that kind of talent. you get virtually no discount for uncertainty. The seller's situation gives them every reason to have you, not them, bear the cost of uncertainty -- unless you overwhelm them.
I am in favor of what I call a portfolio approach to the trade deadline. That means that is exactly what you do with some potential gets, and exactly the opposite of what you do with most. Here is an example. There was almost noting rational you could add to the Mintor trade to ensure that you get a near can't miss prospect. And that is because the TC only get Mintor for 2+ months period.
This is why Alvarez is our best trade pick. He is already a major leaguer and young and performing at a reasonable level in the majors. He is literally the only one you can trade of those you are willing to trade that gets you back a major league ready potential All Star performer/pros[ect and that is because you get the additional benefit of Alvarez being a catcher, among the hardest positionts so fill well.
I don't think people know how to properly assess the relevant variables in these trades.
The second best trade asset at the deadline is Weaver because he is already an established A + set up man this year and a potential closer next year. That's high level performance at teh major league level. Package him with a league average young but versatile major leaguer in Baty and you can get back a major league average solid performer, or a prospect who has that outcome as his floor. That' s how it works. Everything else is fair value lottery ticket swaps. Nothing more.
Wake up to the reality. You want your future second baseman or shortstop from the Brewers, you have to give them their closer or catcher or outfielder of the future. You can't just add quantity. It doesn't work that way.. Period. If you value Tong as a potential starter, mid rotation or above, then you demand a position player in the minors who is likely to be the equivalent of CJ Abrams. or it makes no sense to make the trade. Period. so it turns out the only trades that make sense are ones that are not likely to be consequential for either team long term. It's so obvious from a rational choice point of view, yet most of the ink is spilt on discussions of trades that make no sense from the point of view of both parties. Stop already
So, how do you explain Butto, Tidwell and Gilbert for Tylor Rogers?
Very little for a bit less
Post a Comment