Mike's Mets - The Mets Are Still Searching for Stability

 

Is this man's hiring imminent?

By Mike Steffanos

The Mets' decision to let go of key personnel might be a sign that a President of Baseball Operations hiring is imminent, but it also signals that there is still a long way to go for organizational stability.

While the Mets were idle on Thursday, news came out that the club had fired several folks in their organization, including some who held high-ranking director roles. Among them were Kevin Howard, the Director of Player Development; Director of Pro Player Evaluation Jeff Lebow; Director of Performance Jim Cavallini; and Director of Baseball Development Bryan Hayes. I guess it's no surprise that heads were going to roll as the Mets wrap up possibly the most disappointing season in team history. That's quite an achievement, given how many hugely disappointing seasons Mets fans have lived through.

The implications of these pink slips are quite obvious. Rumors continue to circulate concerning former Brewers head David Stearns taking over baseball operations for the Metropolitans. One interesting nugget that I came across was this from Peter Gammons on Friday (Hat tip to Mark Healey  for the retweet)

As several organizational changes hit the Mets yesterday, the feeling with those remaining is the new President of Baseball Operations will be named within two weeks.

— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) September 1, 2023

I know Gammons still has excellent sources around the game. Still, I find it hard to believe that famously prickly Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, who reportedly has no love lost for Steve Cohen, would let Stearns out of his contract early. While Stearns stepped down from his PBO role with Milwaukee last October, he remains in an advisory role with the team throughout his contract. That reportedly is through the end of this season. The Brewers are currently in first place in the NL Central and will likely make the playoffs. And sure, some owners might just let a guy who's leaving anyway depart a bit early, but Attanasio doesn't seem to be that kind of guy.

Of course, you can't overlook the possibility that there will be a PBO named within two weeks who is not David Stearns. The Mets in the Cohen era leak less copiously than they did under previous ownership. Still, it seems unlikely that the Mets would be having significant negotiations with anyone to run baseball ops, and nothing leaked about it. Whether it's Stearns or someone else, I'll believe someone is hired once there is an official press conference announcement.

Firing directors of important departments allows an incoming PBO to place his own stamp on the organization. This season was quite a failure, but I couldn't tell you how much blame any of the reported firings deserved. But I doubt that this was about individual performance as much as just letting a new guy have the people he wants working for him.

The biggest name was Kevin Howard, who was hired as the Mets' Director of Player Development in January 2021. Assuming that the hiring was by Jared Porter, Howard served under three separate GMs in his relatively short tenure. He also infamously bounced into an assistant hitting coach role in May 2021 when the Mets fired Chili Davis and Tom Slater, then back into the Player Development position after the season. A year isn't enough to judge Howard's work. He's just serving in a role where an incoming head of baseball ops will likely want his own person.

According to reporting, Lebow and Hayes had both been with the Mets for 13 years. Cavallini had 5 years with the organization. I never enjoy seeing anyone lose a job, much less folks who have held those positions for over a decade. One thing I noticed about all of the departures whose names were reported: they all predate Billy Eppler's arrival in November 2021. There is speculation that Eppler might already be taking some direction from Stearns on what positions he would personally wish to fill.

There is constant turnover in MLB organizations. People are let go for performance issues or move on to other jobs inside and outside baseball. But we've seen an awful lot of churn in the Mets organization since Cohen took over in November 2020. Given Cohen's ambitions for the club, the amount of folks going in and out of the org is understandable. And it certainly isn't shocking that an incoming PBO would want his people there. But I also believe that it's become crucial that Steve Cohen makes sure he has the right person running the show, whether it's David Stearns or someone else.

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Tom Brennan - Home Run Machine

Pete Alonso is Our Reigning HR Machine (He Does Smile!)

But This Isn’t About Him (Mostly)

Pete Did Homer Twice Last Night, Now at 41 and 100! Wow.

But this article is (mostly) about DJ Stewart.

DJ had a lousy April in AAA Syracuse. Washed up? Nope.

From May 1 until his call up, he hit 14 HRs in 150 at bats. Nice.

As a Met, through Saturday, he hit 10 more in 94 at bats. Very nice.

Do the arithmetic…24 HRs in 244 at bats.

One every 10 at bats. VERY, VERY NICE.

My definition of Home Run Machine.

Career in MLB, DJ has 36 HRs, 94 RBIs in 625 at bats, which would make for a very nice full season.

By comparison, former Met Kirk Nieuwenhuis had the same career average and 31 HRs and 117 RBIs, but in 56% (373) more career (978) at bats.

DJ is superior, clearly.

DJ…and Pete…

I like Home Run Machines.

How about you?

That’s it for today, folks.

Go deep, and stay deep, my friends.

Well…before I go…back to Pete…

We wonder at times if Pete will stay, if he loves NYM.

How much the team loves him.

Seems the answer is yes, he wants to stay, as he amazingly just reached 40+ for the 3rd time in 4 full seasons. 187 career HRs, 480 RBIs, in 2,435 at bats. That’s not Ron Swoboda, folks. 

Ronny had 73 HRs and 344 RBIs in 2,581 at bats. Nice, and some incredibly key hits, but not Pete.

On the Mets site today, Pete waxes wonderment:

“It’s kind of wild to think about,” Alonso said. 

“Honestly, it’s kind of just happened so far. It seems like just yesterday I was in my rookie season. This is my fifth year. I mean, time flies. 

“It means a lot. This place has been extremely special to me. New York has treated me so incredibly well. … It’s been really awesome so far, and it’s a blessing for sure.”

Reese Kaplan -- Baseball Isn't Always About Awards

As the season winds down for non contending teams sometimes the focus shifts from wins and losses for the team into more individual performance metrics that matter more to players than you might think.  Most of us sit here and watch guys in their 20s starting off with a salary over $600K per year and think what a great way that is to start a career, but like anyone in a regular job making that kind of money there's no guarantee it will last forever nor that it will be spent and invested wisely.

Consequently, the first major milestone for ballplayers to achieve is a full ten years of service time.  You'd be surprised how many ballplayers never made it to that kind of playing duration.  On the Mets when the season began there were several, including pitchers Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Carlos Carrasco and Adam Ottavino.  Outfielder Starling Marte would also be on that list but most of the rest of the roster despite being considered an older team would not.  

At the decade mark in major league baseball you are entitled to long term health care and other benefits that come as a reward for the longevity as an athlete.  In the case of players with five consecutive years with one club who cross that ten year anniversary they also get the right to veto any trades to other teams that don't appeal to them.  However, it is the sheer magnitude of the effort and the rarity that a full 90% of major leaguers never cross that threshold.  

A little known benefit for eight years of service time is known as a Gold Card, a special form of ID that entitles the holder and his guest to free tickets to any baseball game at any time in any of the 30 major league ballparks.  I guess in the business world it's kind of like getting permission to use the company gym or a key to the executive washroom.  It's not a necessity nor is it critical to one's survival for the rest of your life, but it's a nice perk to get having been a steady ballplayer.

One of the rarest metrics for offensive ballplayers is the appearance in 160 of a 162 game schedule.  There are some healthy and steady players who make a play for that standard year after year, but occasionally it's under a literal handful of baseball professionals who can achieve that steady lineup presence.  Take catchers out of the mix immediately as their defensive effort requires much more physical effort than the other offensive positions.  Still, injuries, slumps and simple exhaustion often have the manager removing one of his steady regulars from playing day after day after day.  

On the pitching side of the ledger there's the increasingly rare 200 innings mark.  Think about how we grew up praising 20 game winners.  They almost never happen anymore.  The proliferation of bullpen usage has removed the number of games in which a starter has gone more than five innings and can entrust someone else for the last inning or two both to preserve a victory and to aggregate the number of innings pitched overall.  Yes, the normally healthy pitchers like Tom Seaver and nowadays Max Scherzer were good for racking up far more than 200 innings, but it's becoming a rarity.

Another odd metric to watch is one familiar to Mets fans, the 100 strikeout relief pitcher.  Last season Edwin Diaz stood alone with this achievement, but other high level relievers who fan quite a few and remain healthy have done so as well.  For a pitcher who gets into say 50 games per season, you're looking at that effort resulting in an average of two strikeouts per game.  If you're a one-inning pitcher, that's asking quite a lot.  

What are some of your favorite (and more obscure) baseball performance metrics?  Let's not go with the number of home runs, RBIs, batting average, stolen bases, wins, losses, saves, no hitters or strikeouts.  What oddball achievements have you tipping your cap to someone?  Is it a player who logs time at 8 (or even 9) positions on the field?  Is it first game home runs by rookies?  Is it something even more inventive to track? 

Tom Brennan - Mark, Ronny, DJ, Stanley, Kevin, Paul, and Jordan

I'm Always on the Lookout for Strong Performers

Mark Vientos made an error, but otherwise had a stellar night…a walk, Single, HR, and deep line out. Maybe this is it for him, finally. Maybe Ronny is inspiring him.

Ronny had 2 more hits, and a steal, and is now 4 for 7.

DJ Stewart is the second coming of the Bambino, hitting his 10th.

Stanley Consuegra started out his Brooklyn season with little extra base hit production.

Now, he is absolutely hitting them in Ruthian fashion! With 14 homers since the start of July.

Kevin Parada’s smile came back - he cracked a 3 run shot in a 3-0 Binghamton win.

Finally, Paul Gervase  scuffled just a bit when he was promoted to AA. 

BUT THE LAST 3 OUTINGS?

4.1 innings, one hit, no runs, 11 Ks. ELEVEN!  

Come on now!  90 Ks in 54 innings. Dang!

No, really finally…

Jordan Geber fired 6 shutout innings for Binghamton last night in his AA debut. AWESOME!

Tom Brennan - Your Division Greatly Matters

IT MATTERS…EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULDN'T 

The Mets are in the Braves world, and for perhaps the next few years, will find it extremely difficult to be more than Wild Card contenders.

Cleveland a few days ago had barely the better win-loss record than the Mets, playing an easier schedule.

They, like the Mets, were buried in the Wild Card race.

BUT…in their weak division, they had still Avery good chance of winning their division.

Hence, while the Mets detonated their hugely expensive roster due to no hope of a division win and little hope of a wild card slot, the Guardians went “waiver-wild” and secured the services of Lucas Hiolito, Matt Moore, and Reynaldo Lopez, in the real hope of sneaking into the playoffs.

Yes, which division you are in can greatly matter.

Which is why I want the Mets out of the same division as Atlanta.

Remember…the Devil Went Down to Georgia…and he plays in the NL East.

 

Of course, the Guardians passed on an old hometown hero…Carlos Carrasco.  Gee, I wonder why.

Tom Brennan - “How Fast Was I Going, Officer?”

 

Officer: I pulled you over for excess velocity.

Ronny Mauricio: Huh?

Officer: I clocked you at 117.

Mauricio: That was my line drive speed, sir. I’m legally allowed to operate a bat in that fashion.

Officer: Well, I’ll let you off with a warning this time.

Ronny Mo, besides his 117 MPH bolt in his debut, also had another hit, and flashed some fine Corinthian leather.

Nice debut.

In AA, the resurgent Dom Hamel pitched 6 gem innings, fanning 11.

JT Schwartz? He had 3 more hits (and 2 more RBIs) to raise his average to .301. The Quiet Hitting Machine.

Interestingly, too, in his last 30 games, Daniel Vogelbach has averaged a HR every 10 times up, which is fine, but has no doubles in that span. Doubling David Wright he is not.

Reese Kaplan -- Waivers, DFA and Late Season Starting Pitchers

Today is time for a lesson in the arcane baseball rules and how they correspond to the Mets' team decision about their roster made earlier this week.  

Definition:  Irrevocable Waivers:

A club can place a currently rostered player on a status of irrevocable waivers for a brief period of time (typically three days) during which a claiming team must pay the remaining salary due to that individual.  Should a player pass through a reverse order in the standings claim from any of the other 29 teams eligible to make a claim, the team for which he plays can simply allow him to revert to the club with his status as a player unchanged, or they could DFA him for the purposes of giving him a release while still paying his contractual salary while any claiming team only pays the prorated major league minimum.

Why the dictionary definition exercise?  Well, on Tuesday this week the Mets chose to classify one Carlos Carrasco after his most recent embarrassing start as someone on this irrevocable waivers list.  His story is a remarkable one, having survived major personal health issues and returning to the Mets for a commendable 2022 season during which he notched a 3.97 ERA while starting about 2/3s of the games for a full season.  That kind of quality was what they had hoped to get in his final contract year after picking up his option, but it was not to be.  His ERA at 6.80 is the league's worst and there's nothing to suggest the club would think to retain him at a rather high price for a return in the 2024 season, instead allowing him to leave as a free agent.  To put him on waivers, think of it as a lower level equivalent of paying down the Justin Verlander, David Robertson and Max Scherzer salaries to indicate that they are not part of the future plans for the Mets ballclub.

No one is dissatisfied with Carrasco as an individual but unfortunately he is not there to be a nice guy or a good teammate.  He's paid to win ballgames or at least keeping his team eligible to win games by minimizing the number of runs scored by the opposition.  He's not doing that now and hasn't been doing it throughout this forgettable 2023 season, so having him depart via waivers or DFA would enable the Mets to take an extended look at another pitcher for the remainder of the season to help log performance data while planning for the 2024 roster.

Who should replace Carrasco?  Well, the obvious choices are the folks already on the 40-man roster with starting pitcher credentials.  Denyi Reyes is already back and slated to pitch on Wednesday earlier this week to help ease the innings load on regularly scheduled (and highly valuable) starter Kodai Senga.  Reyes has not distinguished himself but at age 26 the possibility though slim does exist that he could still find the answer and become a credible major leaguer.

Behind him you have the soft tossing Jose Butto who has shown competence in the minor leagues but not so much at the next level.  He's young enough that you want to get a better read on his abilities and more importantly he's already on the 40-man roster so moving him back and forth between Syracuse and Queens is easy to do.

The missing piece in the prospective replacement scenario is Joey Lucchesi who is no longer a kid but has pitched competently for the Mets and is a middle of the road starter prior during his time with the Padres.  He's worth a longer look as he's established he can pitch in the major leagues whereas neither Reyes nor Butto have done so.

Some folks will be clamoring for a promotion by the suddenly lethal arm of Mike Vasil, but to bring him to Citifield means bouncing someone from the 40-man roster and potentially losing a year of financial control for 5 weeks of pitching in a lost cause season.  Obvously people would like to see if he adapts to the next level but from a financial perspective in a losing season it doesn't make a lot of sense to rush his promotion. 

The last option would be to bring in someone from the outside who could indeed be helpful.  Just as Carrasco hit waivers this week, so too did Lucas Giolioto.  Now picking him up during a mediocre season at full salary would not be a shrewd move for a non-contender but waiting for a possible DFA might make sense to grab hold of him for another half dozen starts to see what he's got in his arm. 

There will be others finding themselves voluntarily unemployed before September 1st so some other names might surface of interest to the club.  Still, no matter who they use in Carrasco's place if he is indeed unclaimed and then DFA'd, the time is a bit overdue for this roster change to take place.  No one wishes Carrasco anything but continued baseball employment but he has nothing left to contribute to the Mets' future.  

Tom Brennan Joander Suarez

How About Joander Suarez? 

Why would I write about a guy with a 4.76 ERA for 2023? Well, Mr. Suarez made his AA debut last night, and it was a doozy 

He threw six no hit innings, walking one and fanning six. Throw out one weak start in his last four, and in the other three starts, 18 innings, just 4 , 4 walks, no runs, , and 22 strikeouts. 

If you ask me, Mr. Suarez has vaulted himself into the conversation of “who might a future Mets starter be?”

Why not Joander Suarez? 

If not a starter with the NY Mets at some point in 2024, why not a reliever?

124 Ks in 96 innings this year. 

And on fire lately. Why not?

Reese Kaplan -- Making his Orange and Blue Mets Debut...

September 1st is a significant day for many people.  The Labor Day holiday weekend is fast approaching.  School is about to start on the east coast (though some other parts of the country start in August).  Personally, it's an important reminder for me as my birthday is during the first week of the month, too.

For baseball under the new roster regulations adopted not too long ago the team can add players to the starting 26 up to 28 to take a look at some minor leaguers for the final month of the season to see how they look against major league pitching and hitting.  For the Mets there are several players who have had the Uber ride back and forth between the minors and the majors but it's the never-before-seen youngsters that generate the most curiosity.  

Pitcher Mike Vasil has been mentioned as a possible member of the starting rotation for 2024 and it would be good to see what he can do against hitters the quality that the Braves and other hot hitting teams can provide.  He is not on the 40-man roster yet so it's somewhat unlikely they would make the move to advance him unless they plan on moving someone off that list (such as shutting down Starling Marte and moving him to the 60-day IL).

However, it is the slugging, base stealing and .295 hitting Ronny Mauricio that gets fans and media types salivating.  He is already on the 40-man roster and as such it's been somewhat frustrating to see the team hesitate to promote him already since it's been clear since early June that they were not headed for October baseball.  Word filtered out that on this very day Mr. Mauricio gets to make his first trip as a player into Citifield.  

Before we anoint him as some savior for the team that way too often struggles to score runs, the first decision that needs to be made is where he's going to play.  He came up as a shortstop but Francisco Lindor has that job locked down for the foreseeable future.  

They've tried him in the outfield where, other than Brandon Nimmo, the team has struggled to flank him with offensive weapons.  Unfortunately, in his limited time out there he looks more like Todd Hundley in the outfield than he does like Todd Hollandsworth.  

So some of the folks in the front office felt his future could be in the infield and he's been tried for a handful of games at 3rd base where Brett Baty and Mark Vientos have both played with a bit less defensive (and offensive) polish than folks expected.  Putting him at the hot corner creates a bit of a crowd there without ready answers for Baty nor Vientos.

He has mostly played second base in the minors and it's likely that's where he will start playing his major league games.  With the emergence of DJ Stewart and Jeff McNeil's ability to play the outfield, moving Mauricio to partner on double plays with Lindor seems to make the most sense while reducing the crowd at third.  

DH is another possibility as he excites folks more for his bat than his glove.  Given his power, speed and batting average he would be an improvement on many of the poorer choices the Mets have auditioned there, but surprisingly Daniel Vogelbach has been on something of a roll lately with home run power.  Consequently benching him while being understandable is likely not the wisest move to make as they consider whether or not the big man will be a part of next year's team.

Regardless of where he winds up playing, a hot rookie appearance for the first time will give the long suffering fans something to generate interest and enthusiasm in an otherwise mind numbing season from most of the team.  Welcome to New York City, Ronny.  Remember that Rome wasn't built in a day and no one expects you to hit for the cycle in your very first game.