Tom Brennan: Lincecum/Tong, and McLean/Pedro: The Early Parallels; And Mitch Voit

 

Maybe the great Pedro Martinez will be a better career comp, than Tim Lincecum, for our very own Jonah Tong - or for Nolan (Ryan) McLean

One can dream, right?

Pedro and our very own Nolan McLean? One can dream, right?  That one might well be a stretch. Pedro was a freak. McLean, at 6’2”, 215, is bigger and stronger.

Lincecum and Tong? One can dream, right?  Man, it’s early, but I actually hope Tong’s career will be superior to that of Tim’s. 

Lincecum did win those 2 Cy Young’s, no small feat, but he ended up “just” 110-89, 3.74, which is good but not great, and Tim debuted when he was 250 days older than Tong, giving Jonah a bit of a head start. Similar styles. Tong is 2 inches taller, an advantage. I hope Tong has a superior career.

Why? He’s a 16 year old freak.  That’s why.  

He’s 22?  Nah. That’s a typo.  He’s 16.

First Rounder Mitch Voit - So Far

What is the difference between being a 38th overall, first round pick, and an early second round pick?  

Not much.  The first actual second rounder was pick # 44.

As of Saturday, Mitch Voit was on the Temporary Inactive list, and hitting just .186, with only 2 doubles and 9 walks in 80 plate appearances.  11 for 11 in steals aside, overall, not an impressive debut so far…but he is just 20, and starting out directly in the FSL because the FCL season had already (prematurely?) ended, instead of debuting in the easier FCL, is a difficult challenge.

He has a lot of hard work ahead, to be ready in 2026 to prove that he was a good 38th overall pick. He is listed as the Mets’ 9th overall prospect, with 50 grade power, and a projected debut of 2028. I’d say, based on early results, 2029 is more likely.

The top 30 list at #prospect # 7 has AJ Ewing debuting in 2028, too. 

That to me is way off.  I can see him as a late 2026 Mets call up, or a 2027 full year Mets player. 

After all, he is already hitting .386 in AA, over his first 16 games there. And having a sensational overall year.

I forgot this, too: 

AJ was selected with the 2023 compensation pick the Mets received for losing Jacob deGrom to free agency, so I am glad Jake moved south.

PITCHING SHAKE UP NEEDED

This was written before the Detroit game on Labor Day, on which game I will not comment, because today is Labor Day, and I am taking the rest of Monday off to barbecue and whatnot. The LABOR is up to the well-paid Mets today.  

I wrote these three points in a reply to Reese’s Monday AM article - thoughts?

1) While Mets tried to baby their pitchers, here are Mets ERAs over last 30 days:

STARTERS
Frank M. 9.00
Peterson 7.56
Manaea 7.13
K. Senga 6.18

RELIEVERS
Helsley 10.38
Stanek 12.86

That, frankly, is unbelievable.

So, I have ZERO PROBLEM moving Sproat and Megill into the rotation, and giving 2 of the horror shows a demotion to the pen (or towards the back of the pen). The season is slipping away. ENTIRELY. DO OVER THE MELTED DOWN PITCHING STAFF. Do it, starting today.

I’d be OK with leaving Manaea in the rotation, and putting Holmes in the pen, and going with a rotation of Tong, McLean, Sproat, Megill, and Manaea. Or switch the latter with Shaky Peterson.

Roll the friggin’ dice. The entire staff was 4.97 in August. Without the superlative innings of McLean and Tong, was the rest 6.00? Probably. The entire staff, in August, aside from McLean and Tong, was 7-17. While the Mets had one of baseball’s best offenses in August. 

Stearns, make the changes I suggest. The season hangs in the balance. The cited veterans have FAILED.

AND…

2) You know who else deserves a call up? RJ Gordon. 

While only in AA, last night, RJ was superlative again. 5 innings, 1 run, 3 hits, 9 Ks. He is 11-2 this year. In August, 4-0, 2.08 in 6 starts. 

Radical? Yes. But worth considering.

AND…

3) Stunning….i look at the box scores from Saturday night, and Mike Vasil gets the save in a 3-2 win over the Yanks. Vasil in NINETY INNINGS is 5-3, 2.50 ERA, with 3 saves. What does that say about Mets pitcher development?  

- How does he struggle for 2 seasons in Mets AAA, and then do THAT?

Blade Tidwell meanwhile is doing very well in the PCL for the Giants. 

He will probably replicate Vasil in 2026.

SOTO TO THE RESCUE ON SUNDAY

Manaea stunk it up again.  Juan Soto to the rescue!

Grand slam, 2 run triple, and another 2 walks…oh, my!

This Soto fella is pretty good, huh? Hottest hitter in the NL over the past few months.

Luis Torrens, too, is finally hitting in some better luck. 

Last 7 games?  8 for 21, TEN RBIs! 3-3, 2 RBIs, and a sacrifice yesterday.

The guy, Alvarez, with 2 damaged hands?  His last 2 rehab games, 1 for 9, 6 Ks.  Don’t rush it, Torrens is raking..

SEPTEMBER CALL UPS

No Sproat or Megill….yet:

The Mets have added Luisangel Acuña and Justin Hagenman to their active roster.  Teams are permitted to carry one additional pitcher and position player for September through the end of the regular season.

The Great Larry Hagman - A Star Who Played for Dallas

- Hagenman?  I was hoping they’d call up Larry Hagman instead.  Oh, well…

John From Albany: 10 Years Ago - Mets Tops Phils behind Tejada's Inside the Park HR, 9/2/2015

NY Daily News Back Page, 9/3/2015

 

2015, the last year the Mets made the World Series.  This daily post will detail the game by game journey to the Fall Classic.  Click here for More Mets History and Calendar Classics.

Year: 2015; Game #133; Wednesday;  Sep 2, NYM 9  Vs. PHI; 4; boxscore;   WP: Harvey; LP: Nola; Time: 02:53; NIGHT; Attendance: 32,464; Record: 74-59; Standings: 1; Games up/behind: up 6.5; W;

Curtis Granderson RF: 1 for 5; 1 run; 1 K; Yoenis Céspedes CF-LF: 3 for 5; HR; 1 run; 1 RBI; Daniel Murphy 1B: 1 for 2; 2B; 1 run; 1 RBI; Michael Cuddyer 1B: 0 for 3; 2 Ks; David Wright 3B: 2 for 4; 2 runs; 1 walk; 1 K; Michael Conforto LF: 2 for 4; HR; 1 run; 2 RBIs; Eric Young Jr. PR: 0 for 0; CS; Juan Lagares CF: 0 for 0; Travis d'Arnaud C: 3 for 4; 2·2B; Kelly Johnson 2B: 2 for 3; 2B,SB,IW; 2 runs; 1 RBI; 1 walk; Rubén Tejada SS: 2 for 4; HR; 1 run; 4 RBIs; Matt Harvey P: 0 for 3; 2 Ks; Juan Uribe PH: 0 for 1; 1 K; Matt Harvey, W (12-7): 6.1 innings; 4 runs; 4 ERs; 9 hits; 1 HR; 1 walk; 9 Ks; Sean Gilmartin, H (2): 0.2 inning; no runs; 1 hit; Tyler Clippard: 1 inning; no runs; Addison Reed: 1 inning; no runs; 

Mets slug 3 homers, including an inside the park homer by Ruben Tejada as they jump out to a 6-0 lead after 3.  Matt Harvey goes 6.1 innings leaving early due to dehydration.

ESPN.com: Tejada has inside-the-park HR; Harvey, Mets top Phillies 9-4. "Ruben Tejada hit an inside-the-park homer and drove in four runs to back Harvey as the Mets returned to their winning ways against the Philadelphia Phillies with a 9-4 victory."

NY Post: "On a night Matt Harvey suffered from dehydration and weakness and slogged through 6¹/₃ innings in the Mets’ 9-4 victory over the Phillies, there was concern about Murphy, who departed in the fourth inning with what the team called “mild discomfort” in his left quadriceps." Note: Murphy would only miss two games returning to the Mets on September 6th as a pinch hitter against the Marlins, returning full time against the nationals on September 7th.  

Nationals win 4-3 over the Cards to stay 6.5 games behind the Mets.

NL East Standings 9/2/2015

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA	pythW-L%
NYM	74	59	.556	--	550	496	.547
WSN	67	65	.508	6.5	564	536	.523
MIA	55	79	.410	19.5	499	552	.454
ATL	54	79	.406	20.0	479	629	.378
PHI	53	81	.396	21.5	520	683	.378

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/2/2015.

ANGRY MIKE - J.P. ARENCIBIA: Have the Mets found the “Mr. Miyagi” of Hitting Coaches?

ANGRY MIKE

Enough can’t be said about the tremendous job Syracuse Mets hitting coach / bench coach J.P. Arencibia has done during his tenure. 3 years hardly resembles a Bobby Bowden (F.S.U.) or “Coach K” (Duke) type tenure in terms of length, but Arencibia has had a profound impact on the Mets ability to build a sustainable winner. Arencibia, like other minor league managers and coaches play an integral role in shaping their franchise’s current trajectory and future outlook. 

Arencibia is our Mr. Miyagi…

The responsibility of developing MLB prospects is becoming increasingly important because of the tremendous financial investments allocated to prospects entering the professional ranks. 

Bryce Harper - Nationals

2010 Draft | #1 Overall Pick | $9.9M MLB contract | $6.25M Bonus

Manny Machado

2010 Draft | #3 Overall Pick | $5.25M Bonus

Eli Willits - Nationals

2025 Draft | #1 Overall Pick | $8.2M Bonus 

Ethan Holliday - Rockies 

2025 Draft | #4 Overall Pick | $9.0M Bonus

MLB is in the embryonic stage of a paradigm shift, as teams have no choice but to prioritize the development of homegrown players due to the market values for free agents increasing exponentially each year. Arencibia’s ability to positively impact a prospect’s development suggests Steve Cohen would be wise to make sure Arencibia is locked up for the foreseeable future, with consideration of him eventually taking over as the Mets hitting coach. 

I’d like to personally nominate J.P. Arencibia for the Mets Hitting Coach.

Arencibia was recently tasked with assisting Francisco Alvarez rediscover the swing that earned him a 70-grade scouting grade for power and made him the #1 Overall ranked prospect for the MLB. Arencibia’s career as catcher also made him the ideal candidate to also help Alvarez cleanup his fundamentals on defense.

Unlike our current hitting coaches at the MLB level, Arencibia insisted on having Alvarez build on his foundation, rather than trying to overhaul everything. Arencibia lauded Alvarez’ coming in ready to work, improve as much as he can, so he could rejoin his teammates for a potential pennant race and deep postseason run. 

The results were instantaneous and the magnitude of Alvarez’ improvement was nothing short of biblical. Alvarez began murdering balls to all fields, exhibited a relaxed, confident approach during each at-bat. Alvarez’ began pummeling homers by harnessing his elite bat speed, instead of trying to swing out of his shoes. Alvarez’ was back to hitting balls with authority to RF or CF, by waiting on pitches and letting them travel deeper into the zone. The results were mind-blowing, as he began to put up video game numbers, homering almost on a daily basis. With his defense also showing marked improving, Alvarez’ stint with Syracuse was quite brief, and prior to his unfortunate injury, he looked like one of the best hitters on the Mets.

Alvarez Statistics - AAA Stint: June 28th - July 20th:

ALVAREZ STATS SINCE PROMOTION:

THAT WAS DURING A STRETCH OF 16 GAMES.

11 HOMERS IN 16 GAMES.

When Alvarez returned to the Mets, he continued to hit like the budding young superstar Mets fans were clamoring for ALL BLOODY SEASON.

Resurrecting Alvarez’ career is going to be one of the most important accomplishments on Arencibia’s resume because of the immediate short-term and long-term impact it will have on the Mets becoming successful.

If Arencibia was to ever declare war, the “House of Angry Mike” would stand with him, not only because of how he helped Alvarez quickly resurrect his career, but the other highly talented youngsters listed below: 

MARK VIENTOS: 2023-2024:

Vientos credited Carlos Beltran and J.D. Martinez for helping him make adjustments at the MLB level during the 2024 season, but during his time at Syracuse, Vientos improved his plate discipline, maintained his power numbers, instituting a more selective approach that led to him developing into a more complete hitter. Like he did with Alvarez, Arencibia excelled at keeping Vientos focused on developing on the field and embraced his role of helping these young kids stay positive and focused while they waited for their opportunity at the Major League level.

BRETT BATY: 2023-2024: 

Baty is another uber-talented prospect, who was ranked as a Top 25 prospect in baseball in 2023. He broke out in 2022, but the Mets didn’t do him any favors promoting him to the majors after only short stint at AAA. After having trouble establishing himself at the MLB level, Baty had to re-invent himself at AAA. Under Arencibia’s tutelage, Baty began tapping into his 70-grade power, demolishing homers and driving the ball with authority to all fields.. Baty is another great example of a textbook “Arencibia resurrection”, much like how Alvarez and Vientos were able to fix issues that led to their struggles at the MLB level.

RONNY MAURICIO: 2023 & 2025

Mauricio’s lone AAA campaign in 2023 featured career highs across the board, despite facing the most advanced pitching he’s ever seen. He raised his batting average by almost 30 points, while also setting career highs in OBP, SLG, & OPS. He also lowered his K-rate significantly, without having to sacrificing power numbers. After returning from a prolonged I.L. stint that stretched over 1.5 years, Arencibia oversaw Mauricio’s rehab campaign, where he began murdering AAA pitching and quickly reestablished himself as the prodigious talent the Mets knew they had before the unfortunate knee injury.

Other notable prospects who’ve performed well under Arencibia’s guidance include Luisangel Acuna and Drew Gilbert. As well as these players have done, Arencibia’s most important mission still lies ahead. His ability to facilitate the development of our next wave of impact hitters is going to be the difference between the Mets developing into a sustainable winner or a continue to be an inconsistent franchise that simply doesn’t maximize the talent within system, while simultaneously spending record amounts with nothing to show for it. 

No pressure J.P., just keep doing what you do best, ALL OF METS NATION has your back and is counting on you…

Paul Articulates - Adjust or bust

The New York Mets offense is finally hitting its stride.  All year fans have looked at this lineup and developed great expectations for a team that could score runs in bunches.  But for most of the year, inexplicable multi-player slumps and some really untimely at-bats with runners in scoring position drove up the market for antacids in the greater New York area.

Suddenly, in series against NL East rivals Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Miami, that lineup has begun to hit in most of the games.  They have hit often, they have hit in the clutch, and they have hit throughout the lineup.

This would normally be great news and be associated with a triumphant article on how the Mets have gone on a huge winning streak, out-distancing their opponents in both the East and the wild card race.

It is not.  The Mets have seen lapses in both pitching and defense that have cost them winnable games in this race, and if they cannot right this ship going into September things will not end well.

How dire is the situation?  The two pitchers at the top of the rotation that would not only be expected to anchor a playoff race but also be the ones to pitch in a best-of-three series are both failing miserably.  Both Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea have not thrown a quality start since they have returned to the rotation from injury.  Here is a breakdown of what they have done since mid-July:

Manaea: 9 starts since July 13th, 41.1 innings pitched, 23 earned runs, 5.01 ERA

Senga: 8 starts since July 11th, 35 innings pitched, 21 earned runs, 22 walks, 5.40 ERA

David Peterson and Clay Holmes have fared better, but they are your middle of the rotation guys, not the top two that are needed to get critical wins, stop losing streaks, and lock up playoff series.  

Newcomers Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong have given the Mets a spark with impressive starts, but realistically, neither rookie is going to get the call to start a playoff game.  The post-season fate of the Mets (both getting there and winning there) depends upon getting that top two right.

I used those words carefully – “getting them right”.  As exasperating as it is to watch game after game without a dominant start or even a deep quality start that saves the pen, it is not time to wish they were wearing another uniform.  We must remember that it was only a year ago that Sean Manaea was looking like he could become the ace of the staff.  Just about everyone said it was a high David Stearns priority to get him re-signed with the Mets.  And while we are on the topic of short memories, it was only three months ago that Kodai Senga was leading MLB in ERA and looking like the ace that was predicted in the off-season.

I don’t have access to the deep analytics or sensor data that the Mets do, so it would be foolish to speculate on what is happening with Senga’s pitches, but even the casual observer would be able to point to a greater amount of walks, a greater amount of hard hit fastballs, and a lower whiff rate during his appearances.  Usually this is something that the pitching coaches are on top of and adjustments are made in bullpen sessions between games.  The part that is harder to fix is confidence.  If a pitcher doesn’t have confidence in his ability to throw a pitch by the batter, it shows in both pitch selection and pitch location.  My guess is that the physical adjustments have  been made but the confidence hasn’t caught up.

With Sean Manaea, the problem may be even more elusive.  He is not having as much trouble locating pitches, as evidenced by his 53/8 K/BB ratio which is even better than last year and twice his career average.  But he is giving up many more hits and runs per inning since his return and that is a big factor in his ability to pitch deep into games.  

I am sure these issues are keeping Jeremy Hefner up at night, and I am hopeful for a solution soon.  September starts today and the Mets are in for a very tough road trip that could make or break their season.

Reese Kaplan -- Mets Enter Their 6th (and Perhaps Final) Chapter

Today is September 1st and the Mets have just this single month remaining of the 2025 regular season to prove whether or not they deserve to keep playing in October.  The last few series have been bittersweet with the offense finally showing itself, yet at the same time the pitching which has been less stellar than it has pretty much at any point in the season and has all of sudden gone into hiatus. 

Now the club has made some changes for the better.  First came the long overdue promotion of Nolan McLean who has shown himself capable of delivering as a starting pitcher now ready for his fourth trial after three very successful starts.

The somewhat more surprising promotion of Jonah Tong at just age 22 suggested that the Mets were indeed anxious to try to win some games rather than have their top minor league talents get more seasoning in AAA.  His first start was an odd one but after allowing some unearned runs it appeared as if Tong is as good as had been expected.

The bullpen changes have not been quite as dramatic.  After throwing fairly well for the Mets in his time in New York the club decided to demote lefty Jose Castillo and bring back fellow veteran reliever Chris Devenski.  While neither of these guys is what you would term a difference maker, it still demonstrates that rippling changes were being made to fortify the final roster prior to injury rehab call-ups. 

Photo by Herm Card

One player who did not make this final group is somewhat surprising in starting pitcher Brandon Sproat.  This young man has been a bit of a mixed bag in terms of his numbers as he hits that will he or won’t he plateau also at age 24 but his recent performance is hard to ignore.  Over his last 9 starts he has thrown to a 2.44 ERA and struck out better than one per inning pitched.  It makes you wonder why they felt he is better served upstate than in Queens.

For the remainder of the 2025 season it has been announced that the club will indeed deploy a six-man rotation.  Given the short starts by Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea and Clay Holmes it would seem a wise thing to do.  Everyone hopes this recent disastrous outing by David Peterson is a one-off anomaly but the big lefty’s ERA is now marching upwards at 3.61 and hopefully will get a corrective set of games to push it down closer to the 3.00 level where it has been most of the year.

Going into 2026 the club will have some interesting decisions to make.  Sean Manaea is indeed under contract.  So too is David Peterson.  Ditto Kodai Senga and Clay Holmes.  That is where it starts to get very interesting.  Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, Trevor Megill and a hopefully healthy Christian Scott are all starting pitchers who would be vying to take one of the named pitching slots every fifth day. 

For the rest of the year you’d better grow accustomed to a lot of bullpen innings from Edwin Diaz, Brooks Raley, Gregory Soto, Tyler Rogers, Ryan Helsley, Ryne Stanek and now apparently Chris Devenski.  If the relievers perform as they have prior to this season then they’re looking pretty formidable there.  Unfortunately, between burnout, pitch tipping and change of scenery struggles they are a great unknown which could make or break the quest for October baseball.  

John From Albany: 10 Years Ago - Phillies Pound Mets 14-8, 9/2/2015

NY Daily News, 9/2/2015

 

2015, the last year the Mets made the World Series.  This daily post will detail the game by game journey to the Fall Classic.  Click here for More Mets History and Calendar Classics.

Year: 2015; Game #132; Tuesday;  Sep 1, NYM 8  Vs. PHI; 14; boxscore;   WP: Gomez; LP: Niese; Time: 03:17; NIGHT; Attendance: 30,104; Record: 73-59; Standings: 1; Games up/behind: up 6.5; L; 

Curtis Granderson RF: 0 for 4; 1 RBI; Eric Young Jr. RF: 0 for 1; Yoenis Céspedes CF: 2 for 4; HR,3B; 2 runs; 2 RBIs; 2 Ks; Juan Uribe 2B: 0 for 1; Daniel Murphy 2B: 1 for 4; 1 RBI; Eric Campbell 3B: 1 for 1; 2B; 1 run; David Wright 3B: 2 for 4; 2B; 1 run; Juan Lagares PH: 1 for 1; Michael Conforto LF: 2 for 4; SF; 1 RBI; Michael Cuddyer 1B: 0 for 4; 1 run; 1 walk; 1 K; Travis d'Arnaud C: 1 for 2; 1 run; 1 RBI; 1 walk; Kevin Plawecki C: 0 for 0; 1 walk; Rubén Tejada SS: 1 for 3; 1 run; 1 K; Kirk Nieuwenhuis CF: 0 for 1; GDP; Jon Niese P: 0 for 1; 1 K; Kelly Johnson PH: 1 for 1; 1 run; 1 RBI; Wilmer Flores SS: 1 for 2; 1 RBI; Jon Niese, L (8-10): 5 innings; 6 runs; 6 ERs; 7 hits; 1 HR; 2 walks; 2 Ks; Bobby Parnell: 0 inning; 3 runs; 2 ERs; 2 walks; Eric O'Flaherty: 0 inning; 1 run; 1 ER; 1 walk; Carlos Torres: 1 inning; 4 runs; 3 ERs; 3 hits; 1 walk; Sean Gilmartin: 1 inning; no runs; 3 Ks; Addison Reed: 1 inning; no runs; 1 K; Erik Goeddel: 1 inning; no runs; 

NY Post: Mets start September with ugly blowout loss to Phillies. "The worst culprits of the evening came out of the bullpen in the sixth inning, especially Bobby Parnell. That’s when the Phillies sent 12 men to the plate, scored eight runs, six unearned, and gleefully accepted two throwing errors plus four walks in a 14-8 rout...Niese (8-10) was down 6-0 when he was lifted for a fifth-inning pinch hitter. Most of the damage inflicted on him came in the Phillies’ five-run third that featured a three-run homer by Darin Ruf (career-high six RBIs). Jeff Francoeur and Darnell Sweeney also had RBI hits in the third off Niese."

Darin Run has a career-high six RBIs.

Nationals lost once again to the Cardinals to keep the Mets up 6.5 games in 1st.

NL East Standings 9/1/2015

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA	pythW-L%
NYM	73	59	.553	--	541	492	.543
WSN	66	65	.504	6.5	560	533	.523
ATL	54	78	.409	19.0	476	622	.380
MIA	54	79	.406	19.5	492	549	.450
PHI	53	80	.398	20.5	516	674	.380

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/1/2015.