Reese Kaplan -- AL West Trade Targets (Part 4 of 6)

Houston Astros

The high flying Houston Astros are getting pretty good production in most areas of the lineup.  The only disappointments are Carlos Beltran who at age 40 may have reached the end of the road.  As a full time DH he’s hit 3 HRs, driven in 12 and is batting .254.  That’s not much return on a $16 million investment (though it’s still far superior to the nearly as-rich Curtis Granderson).  The starting pitching is anchored by Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers, Jr.  Charlie Morton is doing an average level of performance.  After that it’s ugly.  In the bullpen closer Ken Giles is mirroring his season from a year ago with a somewhat unimpressive 4.11 ERA.  Young Michael Feliz has been brilliant and steady Will Harris is turning in another solid year.  Surprisingly Luke Gregerson who owns a career ERA under 3.00 is pitching to a 6.89 this year.  Teams at the top rarely want to tinker with success, but it’s possible they would want someone like Lucas Duda to provide more than what Beltran has been giving them.  Alex Bregman isn’t setting the world afire and Neil Walker would be a huge upgrade but no one is likely going to want to take on his $17.2 million salary unless you picked up some in return.  Would you do a Neil Walker for Luke Gregerson and a top prospect?  The Astros are so full of quality young starters in their lineup that there have to be some folks blocked in the minors. 

Los Angeles Angels

After Mike Trout, there’s not a lot there.  Albert Pujols is driving in runs but only hitting .232. Yunel Escobar at 3rd base is hitting .272/5/17.  It’s pretty dismal after that.  Every one of the starting pitchers is above 4.00 except Tyler Skaggs eking under at 3.99.  Converted starter Bud Norris is doing a reasonable Dennis Eckersley impression in his first year as a closer.  Jose Alvarez has been pretty much unhittable in a setup role.  Former Met farmhand Yusmeiro Petit is having a fine season with hitters just managing to deliver a .202 BAA.  Journeyman David Hernandez has been even better with batters managing to do .156 against him.  Rounding out the supporting cast is right hander Blake Parker who’s pitching to his career norms.  The left handed Jose Alvarez is probably the best bet assuming they do not want to lose their closer who is only earning $1.75 million.  Surprisingly the Angels are hovering around .500, though trailing the division leading Astros by 8 games already.  

Texas Rangers

The usually slugging Rangers are hovering around the .500 mark with some surprising production from their lineup (both good and bad).  Shortstop Elvis Andrus is demonstrating that last year’s .302 AVG was not a fluke.  Catcher Jonathan Lucroy seems to be a bit under what they had hoped to get.  They have received power from Roughned Odor at 2B and Joey Gallo at 3B, but both are hovering around the Mendoza line.  Mike Napoli is well below it at .165.  Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Gomez and Nomar Mazara are all playing at replacement level.  What’s kept them alive has been what thus far has been the best rotation in baseball – Cole Hamels, Andrew Cashner, Yu Darvish, A.J. Griffin and Martin Perez are all under 4.00 with only Perez significantly over 3.00.  Last year 30 year old rookie Matt Bush turned in a fine season after wrestling his demons that delayed the start to his big league career.  He’s picked right up where he left off with a 1.32 ERA.  Lefty Alex Claudio is now in his fourth season for the Rangers and owns a career ERA of 2.78.  Young Jose LeClerc pitched to a 1.80 ERA in a dozen games as a rookie last year and is doing it again with a 2.31 thus far.  Former Met strikeout specialist Dario Alvarez is still walking too many people, but you can’t argue with a 2.79 ERA and 55 punch outs in 41 IP.   Alex Claudio seems like the prize here and with such a strong supporting case you might be able to talk the Rangers into parting with him.  What do they need?  Well, Neil Walker or Lucas Duda or Wilmer Flores would provide superior DH production or corner infield production. 

Seattle Mariners

This club is sporting one of the better lineups in baseball these days.  While Danny Valencia and Kyle Seager at the corners are having subpar seasons, they’re getting great contributions from household names like Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano and Jean Segura, as well as lesser known players like Mitch Hanigan, Guillermo Heredia and Ben Gamel.  Newcomer Jarrod Dyson is a bit of a disappointment, hitting just .215 but contributing double digits in stolen bases.  Catching is weak as Mike Zunino never seemed to live up to his advance billing and Carlos Ruiz is hitting just .135 at age 38.  For a team with Felix Hernandez, Yovani Gallardo and Hisashi Iwakuma, you’d be very surprised to learn the top starter has been James Paxton who thus far is 3-0 with a 1.43 ERA and just a .190 BAA.  Closer Edwin Diaz appears to have fallen prey to the dreaded sophomore jinx.  Tony Zych has notched one save.  Quality relievers include Nick Vincent, James Pazos and veteran Mark Rzepczynski.  Of this group, I’d like to see the Mets make a run at James Pazos or Tony Zych and possibly offer up Travis d’Arnaud in return.  It’s a low risk move for the Mariners considering how little production they’re getting out of the catcher position.  

Oakland Athletics

1st baseman Yonder Alonso leads the team’s offense with .283/12/29 but then it gets pretty ugly pretty quickly.  Khris Davis has provided 11 HRs but is hitting just .220.  DH Ryan Healy and 3rd baseman Trevor Plouffe have each provided 6 HRs but not much else.  Big right hander Andrew Triggs is having an All-Star type of season.  Jesse Hahn has also pitched quite well thus far.  Sonny Gray started the season on the DL with a strained lat (sound familiar, Mets fans?) and thus far has started just 3 games.  Kendall Graveman is pitching to his 5th starter career norms and big lefty Sean Manaea has been terrible.  Santiago Casilla had been given closing duties off his stellar Giants’ career but he was recently replaced by Ryan Madson after pitching to an ERA over 5.00.  Madson  may have an 0-3 record but he has a 1.98 ERA and the Athletics think he may be the better option going forward.  Lefty Daniel Coulombe is off to a decent start, but nothing in his past suggests it is sustainable.  Oakland has been known to make some head scratching trades over the years, including dumping younger players seemingly too early.  They will likely entertain offers for Alonso, selling high in his free agent walk year, but it seems his production is an outlier and not better than what the Mets have in Lucas Duda or may have in Dom Smith.  I don’t see any trade possibilities here.

   

FLASH - SP - Tyler Pill

The Mets have purchased the contract of pitcher Tyler Pill.

He will join the team in Pittsburgh.

No announcement yet on who he will replace on the 25-man.

Tom Brennan - FAST AND NOT FURIOUS

Tom Brennan - FAST AND NOT FURIOUS

One guy has stolen 16 of 18, the other 11 of 13 and the season is only about a quarter complete.  THAT'S FAST! Vin Diesel refused to drag race against them - even without them using a car!

But one of those 2 guy is hitting .204 and one is hitting .213.  They are certainly not giving the baseballs a FURIOUS beating.

My guess is that CHAMP STUART would edge out PATRICK BIONDI in a foot race, given his grade 80 speed.

But sadly, neither can really hit well enough, and as the old adage says, "you can't steal first."

The 24 year old, 6'0", 185 lb. Stuart's problem has always been far too many strikeouts. 

It seemed progress was being made by Champ, and as recently as May 2, Champ was hitting .258 for the AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies. 

But his last 7 games?    Doozies: 28 at bats, 2 hits, 16 Ks.

Despite his blistering speed, Champ has hit just .225 in 1,322 career at bats, with 503 Ks, a nasty K rate.  In the past 2 years, he's played 142 games and fanned 207 times. 

Sadly, a guy who's stolen 117 of 134 in his career just can't seem to fix the K flaw.  It would seem the path to major league success for Champ would be cutting the strikeouts in half, at a minimum...easier said than done.  Well, he has 3 1/2 more months this year to figure something out. 

I suppose there would be no rush to cut him in 2018, either, to give him more time to drastically improve his contact rate.  But without major improvement, a dead end. 

Biondi, small at 5'8", 170, and a former 9th rounder in 2013, is already 26, and in 29 games this year has just one extra base hit (a homer, one of just 6 he has hit since 2013). 

He had a decent year last year with St Lucie (.271/.352/.332)  and has stolen 75 of 95 in the last 231 games since 2015. 

But without power (a career .316 slug %), it would seem his path to the big leagues would really require a minimum 50 point boost to his career .253 average, even for a guy who has stolen 116 career bases with a 75% success rate. 

 And, at age 26, time is "running" short in his quest to make that sort of a quantum hitting leap.

Sad to see such speed seemingly not being enough for either to get them over the hump that few prospects manage to make it over.  I hope they prove me wrong.

BEFORE I GO:

The Mets' pitching has been a mess....case in point, the throw-away loss to lowly San Diego after having an early 5-1 lead.  DILLON GEE. meanwhile, stymied the Las Vegas 51's on Wednesday, allowing just 2 hits over 6 shutout IP, fanning 9.  It represented his second straight excellent start and 6th in his 9 starts for the Round Rock PCL affiliate of the Rangers.  

At some point, Wheeler will hit his very low innings limit, and Thor may or may not be back by then.  So shoring up the pitching is a worthwhile idea before the season slips away.  I know Gee was not treated well in his departure from the Mets, but I would think he'd prefer Queens to Arkansas.  So, unless the Mets feel that AA's PJ Conlon (7 brilliant shutout innings Wednesday night) is a viable near-term addition for the big league club, I would explore a deal for Dillon.

ROSTER MOVES - Binghamton

Please note the following transactions involving the Binghamton Rumble Ponies.

May 25:

• INF Asdrubal Cabrera completed his Major League rehab assignment with Binghamton (AA)
• INF Jio Mier placed on Disabled List
• INF Gustavo Nunez transferred from Brooklyn (SS-A) to Binghamton (AA)

Tom Brennan - METS SPOTLIGHT: PAT MAZEIKA

Tom Brennan - METS SPOTLIGHT: PAT MAZEIKA

I wanted to highlight someone whose name I misspelled so many times that a frustrated (and rightly so) Macks Mets reader finally called me out on it - mea culpa.

But how I spell it is not consequential, really.  How he hits, however is very consequential.

This Patrick dude spelled Mazeika has put up the equivalent of a full 162 game season's with of plate appearances in his career, and what does he have to show for it?  

MMM MMM GOOD, THAT'S WHAT:

602 AB, .332, 54 2B, 15 HR, 115 RBI, 79 K, .431 OB%.  

Dag nab, that is GOOD. No Vegas inflated #s.

And the good news?  This year as a 23 year old in St Lucie is BETTER than his career numbers: 

.343, 32 RBIs and 6 of his 15 career homers in just 38 games, and 32 RBI through May 21.  A lefty hitter who has fanned just twice in 40 plate appearances vs. lefties this year.  And 24 for 57 (.421) with runners on base.  And just 14 Ks in over 150 plate appearances this year.

Something must be wrong, correct?  He's too small, right?  Nope, he's 6'3". 210.  No speed?  Not sure how you hit 54 doubles and steal 4 of 4 in you are slow.     

Well, OK, he has only thrown out 29% of baserunners this season, although his 7 career errors in 101 games as a catcher certainly are not bad for a guy refining his skills as a backstop.  And his zero errors in 23 games as a first baseman are one sign that he could catch, split time between the two spots, or become a full time 1B.

It sure seems he is a top 3 hitter in this minor league system right now.   And could well be a top 3 hitter on the Mets by 2019 or 2020.

So do like me: please learn to spell his name, because you'll be seeing a lot of it. M-A-Z-E-I-K-A.

Mack’s Morning Report – 5-25 – Seth Romero, Robert Gsellman, Gavin Cecchini, Patrick Mazeika

Good morning.

Seth Romero –

It’s no big secret that Seth Romero is one the most talented pitchers eligible for June’s draft. The 6-3, 220-LB lefty had a 2015 freshman stat line of 1.94 ERA in 83 innings with a 92/22 K/BB, which was followed up in 2016 with 2.29 ERA in 94 innings with a 113/28 K/BB. His fastball early on averaged at around 93 and topped off at 95.

It’s also no big secret that he has been thrown off the University of Houston baseball team recently for repeated violations of the team policies. His first suspension was in February 2016 for “conduct detrimental to the team”. Then, this April, he was suspended again for “a violation of university and athletic department policy”. The Houston AD said “at this time, it is important for Seth to focus primarily on his academic and personal life”. Ironically, Romero was leading D1 baseball at the time of his suspension with 76-Ks in 44.1-IP.

The final hammer fell when UH kicked Romero off the team earlier this month. The school cited ‘an undisclosed event’. Sources said he had a fistfight during batting practice before Houston was to play Rice.

His complete Houston 3-year stats were 47-appearances, 28-starts, 2.43, 226.1-IP, 290-K, 70-BB.

I bring up Romero because it’s just about guaranteed that he will still be on the board when the Mets #20 pick comes up. Take away all the bullshit and he would have been a definite top ten pick and possibly the second lefty taken behind Louisville’s Brandon McKay. Now, who knows? You pass on him and you most definitely lose a future start in this sport. You draft him, and he goes back to school at some junior college so he can stat up and come back next year for an earlier pick in the draft and a higher $$ slot.

Tough call, but you pass on this guy and you may be making a big mistake.

Fangraphs reviewed a list of 2016 rookies they wrote about last year –

          

Robert Gsellman, RHP, Mets: The Mets have struggled with injuries early on in 2017 but rather than step up, Gsellman has taken a step back. He’s producing lots of ground balls but he’s still allowing too many homers (five) and he’s not missing many bats (28 Ks) through his first 36.2 innings. He’s been peppered for 52 hits already and his ERA is north of 7.00. The bullpen might be a better place for him right now.

          

Gavin Cecchini, SS, Mets: Known mostly as a good-glove, decent-hit player coming into pro ball, Cecchini hasn’t done much to disprove that scouting report. However, he’s moved through the minors well and is at triple-A as a 23-year-old. And he’s already had a taste of the majors. Asdrubal Cabrera is hurt and Jose Reyes is struggling to hit so Cecchini might get a chance to play a little as the year progresses — especially if Cabrera struggles to stay healthy (or becomes trade bait) and the Mets continue to fall out of the playoff picture.

                       Mack – I have two thoughts here:

1.     I hope we didn’t give up too early on Gsellman as a starter

2.     I would give Cecchini the second base job after the all-star break

MLB.com had an interesting article on Patrick Mazeika –

If Mazeika can polish his catching skills, his prospect ranking with the Mets -- No. 26 right now -- could rise dramatically. His Major League potential at the plate isn't questioned.

The left-handed hitter batted .354 in 2015 for Kingsport in the Rookie Appalachian League, then .305 last season with Columbia in the Class A South Atlantic League. Mazeika got a late start at Columbia, though, because of an elbow injury -- and his arm was already fringy in the view of scouts.

"I've been working hard to catch up with my defense," Mazeika said. "My arm is coming along, and I think I'm getting a little bit better at everything."

Mack – No one loves Mazeika’s bat more than I do, but I still believe his ticket to the majors will be at first base. Still, it doesn’t hurt to try and improve behind the plate.

A great story last week on Corey Oswalt and P.J. Conlon

Casey Wentworth - Time For Changes Man

Being bored, I have thought about what direction perhaps these NY Mets to take now even though it is still early in the 2017 season. I find this important to suggest now

because...this is not working here and it may be a larger hole in the ship than we had prior thought. Rephrased, it cannot hurt!

There appear to be a few obvious things holding this team back, some large and then some smaller in scope.

I think as a whole, this organization (as well as its many fans) were all thinking that this "could be our year" and that the many necessary pieces of the puzzle to attain this 

lofty dream were in fact in-place to make a run. Like every NY Mets season though, the injuries interrupted this dream, as we have again seen. It is this organization's re-occurring nightmare that hampers each and every single season. It has gone on too long here and must be reeled back in.

Think about it a moment. How many NY Mets players appearing in the recent WBC are now out with injuries, some of which are serious? You have a team in these NY Mets that has traditionally battled injury year to year. Then several key Met players extend their own season by playing in the WBC prior to the start of the 2017 MLB seasn and are at current watching the games from their respective home television, injured and unable to play. Does this make any sense to anyone? Does the WBC matter this much?

Here, is what I am leaning towards wanting to see happen here now. (It is only my opinion.)

There are players we have counted on in past seasons that maybe (now) we really should not. Players like Granderson (age), Duda (injury propensity), Reyes (age and at times apparent lack of focus unless back playing shortstop. Although he is a decent utility player still.) And then too possibly Jay Bruce here as well. He isn't sustaining his really good start. 

Then, there are players that maybe should not ever be counted on as consistent Met starting players. We all know who these are here.

So, I'd like to put "out there" into ether space so to speak this starting field and suggest too the utility role ideas that I currently have. Note here also, that there are Las Vegas players I am liking and watching for here as well. Namely, Alberto Baldonado (lefty reliever who is coming on somewhat), Kevin McGowan (righty reliever with some success in Vegas in 2017 already), Travis Taijeron (coming on now with the power bat and hitting for average .297 BA) and of course SS Amed Rosario (.360 BA) and 1B Dominic Smith who have not slowed down yet offensively. So here goes, damn the torpedoes and fire away because this team needs a new hairdo and bowtie.

1B Dominic Smith, 2B Neil Walker, SS Amed Rosario, 3B Asdrubal Cabrera, LF Yoenis Cespedes (once well), CF Brandon Nimmo (coming on strong again at Las Vegas and just needs a bit more time down at Vegas to be ready for a call-up. Brandon had a double and a homerun last Vegas game.), RF Michael Conforto (next NY Mets Captain material for certain), 

C Good Luck Here. You are on your own with this position. My own suggestion is to add in a catcher from outside who can actually hit and also hit homeruns, if there is one out there that is. What about a trade for

At starting pitching...

Wilk is not it. Would actually prefer now even trying AA Rumbleponies' P.J. Conlon  (age 23 and a lefty starter with stats similar to a young Tommy Glavine's. Yes,

everyone in the Mets front office will probably freak-out totally (LOL) if they ever heard this suggestion. But to them each one, I might say this, "What do you have to lose here with this idea really?" Stephen Matz (remember him?) is starting to pitch now down a Binghamton and doing alright thus fay too. May need a few more weeks though there, not certain. Matt Harvey looks like he may not ever really be that same great starter that we once saw here after he arrived to Citi Field.This has to be frustrating for him. But here's the fix, Matt has to take serious now his apparent need to re-invent himself as a big league starter, by adding in a really good one more out-pitch to his arsenal. The "great ones" can do this and I believe that so can Matt

Harvey, if he wants to. Here's my rotation thoughts with Noah and Lugo still out injured...

SP: Jake deGrom, Zachary Wheeler, Stephen Matz (when ready), Matt Harvey, PJ Conlon, Kevin McGowan. Yes, Kevin McGowan (age 25) who recently spot started very nicely at Vegas.

Looks a lot like Robert Gsellman, who I might send down a spell to Las Vegas in order to get everything righted. They look a lot alike, so probably no one will even know the switch.

RP: Alberto Baldonado, Josh Edgin, Franisco Salas, Jerry Blevins, The Smoker, and when Addison Reed returns.

Utility Players:

INF TJ Riveria, INF Phillip Evans, OF Travis Taijeron (leads Vegas in homers and has a .297 BA at current there),

Trade thoughts: Bruce, Duda, Granderson, Lagares, Flores, d'Arnaud all for one catcher with power returned here (like Jonathon Lucroy for instance!)

Call ups: Smith, Rosario, Taijeron, McGowan, Baldonado

Send downs: Gsellman, Reynolds, Plawecki, Mr. Met

Promotions to AAA from Binhamton: Secrest, Taylor, Regnault

Promotions from AA to Mets: PJ Conlon (why not, you have absolutely nothing to lose.)

Tom Brennan - MINORS SPOTLIGHT: TYLER BASHLOR

Tom Brennan - MINORS SPOTLIGHT: TYLER BASHLOR

When it comes to future Mets relievers, putting up freaky-good numbers is an admirable qualification.   

After all, who wants mundane results like a 4.00 ERA with 7 K's per 9 when freaky numbers can be achieved.

Tyler Bashlor is doing freaky in St Lucie. Trust me.

At least, when I see a guy fan 27 in 15 innings, that's what I conclude.  Who does he think he is, Aroldis Chapman?

Bashlor has been especially freaky-good in his last 7 outings through Sunday, May 21:

6.2 scoreless IP, 15 Ks.

I'll go further on freaky-good:

Last 3 innings, 9 Ks.  

That's not just freaky-good, downright sick.

He's saved all 4 of his save chances in his 14 outings, and allowed runs in just 2 of those outings.

Tyler had a brief, rocky debut in 2013, then missed 2014 and 2015 with an arm injury.  Zach Wheeler said he felt Tyler's pain...or at least I imagine he would have, since they both are Charter Members of the Two Missed Years Club.

So Tyler's first real action therefore was in 2016.   

Mostly relieving in Columbia, he fanned 73 in 55.2 IP.  

So it is real, real clear that Bashlor is freaky-nasty.  I have a feeling he is going to head towards Queens mighty, mighty quickly.  Which should make us mighty, mighty happy.

After all, the Mets can use a 5'11", 195 righty fireballer like this 24 year old guy coming out of the pen.  

I read he touches 98, and maybe he'll put up triple digits for the Mets.  That would be freaky.  Freaky-good.

So if Bashlor continues to electrify, I hope the Mets move him up quickly.

Reese Kaplan -- NL East Trade Targets (Part 3 of 6)

Washington Nationals

There is a reason they’re in first place.  As a team they’re hitting over .280.  There’s not a real weak link anywhere except last year’s rookie sensation Trea Turner who is only at .248 thus far.  However, coupled with this offense is a standout starting rotation from 1-4 with auditions apparently still being held for the 5^th starter.  The bullpen was expected to be a weakness going into the season.  34 year old Matt Albers is having the best stint of his career and young Koda Glover is looking pretty solid.  After that it’s a crap shoot as they indulge in a closer by committee approach.  I can’t see the Mets and Nationals making major league player type deals that would help one another nor do I see a good match between them.  

Philadelphia Phillies

This team bears watching because they are getting below normal production from some regulars, including Maikel Franco, Osdubel Herrera, Freddy Galvis and Michael Saunders.  Yet despite their minimal contributions the Phillies find themselves in third place ahead of both the Marlins and the Braves (and just 1.5 behind the Mets).   Zack Eflin has contributed 5 excellent starts and Jeremy Hellickson is doing his usual credible job.  After that it’s been pretty dismal.  Veteran sinkerballer Pat Neshek is having an excellent season but the rest of the bullpen is not too impressive.  Given his age of 36 he might be available in some kind of deal.  

Atlanta Braves

They need a shortstop badly.  The incumbent is hitting .174.  All of the starting pitchers are over 4.00 ERA with Bartolo Colon over 7.00.  Jim Johnson doing a credible job as a closer.  2-3 others in setup roles doing alright but the last few relievers are awful.  You should inquire about relievers Jose Ramirez and Arodys Vizcaino.  If they are willing to cough up some payroll dollars, no one would be disappointed to see either R.A. Dickey or Bartolo Colon return to the Mets.  As a young club they probably are more interested in what the Mets have on the farm rather than their payroll dumps like Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker or Lucas Duda.  Despite his poor performance thus far you might be able to parlay Jose Reyes into something, too.  

Miami Marlins

They have one of the better young rosters in baseball, but all the hitting they can produce will be for naught until they address their pitching woes.  Right now Jose Ureña is the only man pitching to a sub 5.00 ERA and that’s through a total of just two starts.  Dan Straily, Wei-Yin Chen and Edinson Volquez have been mediocre at best.  Tom Koehler has been awful.   Other than closer A.J. Ramos, the bullpen has struggled.  I’d target Kyle Barraclough as someone who has turned in three credible seasons in the reliever role.  However, the one player on the Marlins for whom I would give up quite a bit is catcher J.T. Realmuto.  Unlike Travis d’Arnaud, he’s actually improved each year he’s been playing.  Last year he finished with a .303 average and is duplicating that thus far this year.  He may not have d’Arnaud’s power but what he does do is get on base.  More importantly, he stays on the field.  A trade package including d’Arnaud plus other parts (lower level quality pitching prospects such as P.J. Conlon plus some wildcards like Tyler Pill or Tommy Milone) might get it done.  That would solve the Mets catching woes for several years and add a high batting average to a mostly low batting average lineup.