8/30/20

Mets Lineup Game 2 Mets Vs. Yankees









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Tom Brennan - SUBTERRANEAN STATS OF SUBS, A CITIFIELD TRADITION

CAN'T ANYBODY HERE HIT THAT BALL?

I never cease to be amazed at how some guys (focusing my article today on so-called hitters) that the Mets bring in as back up players just totally CRATER.

Last year, it was Keon Broxton doing a total swan dive, along with a host of others.

Heck, last year, Keon, Aaron Altherr, Ruben Tejada, Jed Lowrie, and Sam Haggerty combined to go 11 for 100 (.110)  with 47 Ks.  Good grief.

The year before, in 2018, Jose Lobaton, Jack Reinheimer, Phil Evans, Matt den Dekker, Ty Kelly, and Kevin Kaczmarski combined to go 16 for 133 (.120) with 44 Ks.  Good grief.

Heck, in World Series 2015, the Mets had Mayberry, Recker, Monell, Muno and Young going 40 for 273 (.146) and Nieuwenhuis, Ceciliani and Herrera somewhat better but still going 55 for 264 (.208).  Good grief.

This year, in the "utter inability to get hits" category, we get Billy Hamilton and Brian Dozier.

Through Saturday, the two, as Mets were 3 for 37 with a couple of walks.  Good grief.

Pitchers hit better. Jake deGrom is career .189 in 350 at bats.

Dearly departed Zack Wheeler was 23 for 113 (.205) the past two seasons.

So how the heck do guys who are supposed to be actual major league hitters get brought in by the Mets year after year and demonstrate gosh-awful hitting ability, less than or equal to most pitchers, not just Jake and Zack mentioned above?

I mean, really?  How can these guys hit so incredibly poorly?  

Why can't the Mets find scrubby dudes that almost always can at a minimum hit .200?

I mean, add all the numbers of the bumbling hitters from 2015, 2018, 2019, and 2020 above, excluding Jake and Zack, of course, and you get 125 for 807.

That's .154.  Seems almost impossible to be that bad.  But that bad they have been. 

Those guys couldn't hit in little league. Purely subterranean.





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Mets Game 1 Lineup Mets Vs. Yankees









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Mack - 2021 Draft Targets: Mason Black, Noah Cardenas, Tyler Black, Josh Baez, Michael Morales

 


Good morning.

 

I have been guilty early saying that I questioned the degree of talent there is in this draft.

 

So, I reached out to one of my draft buddies... Patrick Ebert, founder of The Grind Baseball. I asked Pat what he thought about the talent level in this draft and he minced no words:

 

"Thanks Mack. Considering there are all the players that normally would be eligible plus the college players coming back instantly makes it more loaded than usual. Throw in an expected loaded JUCO class and the prep players and we could be looking at a historic year for talent.

 

Check out Pat here: 

t https://twitter.com/PatrickEbert44/status/1298029693741015041?s=20


 

               Mason Black

 

    P   20/yrs. old   6-3   210   LeHigh 

 

Blake had a breakout performance at the 2019 Cape Cod classic. Started in their CCBL all-star game. 

Three-pitch mix includes a 92-95 fastball, slider, and change. Fastball comes in as above average, but other two pitches don’t. 

He has to develop better secondary pitches to make it to the pros. 

2020 limited college stats:  4-starts, 1-2, 3.68, 1.14, 22-IP, 29-K 


Mack projection:  Pitchers like Mason really needed 2020 to be a normal year so they could have showed improved numbers and cause movement in their draft status. Now, it’s all a crap shoot. 

Consensus is he is a lower 100 prospect. I have him a little lower than that (rounds 3/4) or maybe he should go back to school for his senior year. 

-  -  -  - 


                       Noah Cardenas  

                                            C   20/yrs. old   6-1   185   UCLA 


Cardenas is a very athletic behind the plate. Contact orientated swing with an inside out righthanded swing. Freshman All American in 2019. Poor showing in the Cape League. 

2020 limited stat line:     38-AB, .237/.367/.289, 0-HR 

Mack Projection: 

This is another kid that needed a banner 2020 to help him in the draft. He is currently listed as a lower top 100 prosepct, whcih says a lot about the limited depth in this draft.

I would consider him in either the 4th or 5th round, but not earlier. 


                                                            -  -  -  - 


                Tyler Black  

                                2B   20/yrs. old   6-2   190   Wright State 

 

Black is the first second baseman we are featuring this year. 

He has been a starter since his freshman year. He is a very strong hitting infielder that was beginning to make the transfer to third this season. Has the skills to play multiple positions. But… he is a bat first prospect and not particularly known for his defense. 

.353/.469/.600 in his freshman year.  Good control. Barrels up. 

Limited 2020 stats:   13-G, 46-AB, .239/.340/.370 


Mack’s Observation: 

Black was having a miserable 2020 season before the season was shut down. Showed little or no power at all. 

Currently projected in the 80-90 pick range. 

I would pass unless he was still around on Day 3. 

                                                                -  -  - 


                Josh Baez  

                    RHP/1B   16/yrs. old   6-3   220   Dexter Southfield HS (MA) 


Incredible athlete for age with next level strength. With a bat, he’s a 60 raw power projected player though there is plenty of swing and miss potential here. His future in baseball is as a pitcher. 

Very raw talent. Already hits 97. 


Mack observation: 

Baez is the poster boy for high risk, high reward. The safe way is to draft him as a first baseman and work with him on his strikeouts. The dice throw is to develop his mound work which looks on the surface to have at least power relief potential. But, let’s remember… he’s only 16. 

I would assign two scouts and pitch a tent on his front lawn and follow him to every baseball field he goes to until draft day. 

Definitely 2nd round material and a steal in the 3rd.  


                                                                    -  -  -  -   


                    Michael Morales  

                    RHP   17 years old   6-0   180   East Pennsboro HS (FL)  

Morales is one of the top Pennsylvania prep players eligible for the next draft. A very smooth delivery on the mound. Over the top release. 

Fastball sits in the low 90s, plus heavy usage of his breaker. Crosscheckers report that there is plenty of room for increased velo as his frame fills out. 

Projected in the 80-90 pick range (second round). 


Mack observation: 

I try not to get excited about prep pitchers until I see the final results of their senior year. Now, with this year’s mess, we will never see what someone like Morales would have done in a normal year. 

Me? I probably would pass on prep players early in this draft and go with more established college players that have a longer track record for me to study. 

I would take a second look if he is still around on day three.

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Mack - 2021 Draft Targets: Adrian Del Castillo, Jadin Hill, Johnny Ray, Cal Conley, Cole Stilwell

 


 Draft Site  posted their second, updated mock draft on August 24th. This one still has Samford 1B Sonny DiChara as the Meys pick at 1.18. 

 

Prospects 365 posted their first mock draft and they had the Mets picking at 1.12:

 

Adrian Del Castillo  C  Miami 

College catchers are so valuable due largely to the scarcity of prep catchers who make the MLB, and Del Castillo’s advanced approach and offensive profile are a perfect indication of what a first round backstop typically looks like.

2020 stat line:  16-G, 53-AB, .358/.547 slug%, 2-HR, only 8-K

 

Mack observation:  Love the pick, but we are going to have to lose a lot of games this season to set up a chance to get this kid.

A definite top 15 pick.

 

https://www.fueledbysports.com/2021-mlb-mock-draft/ August 18th top 15 mock draft:


Pick

Team

Player

Pos

HT

WT

School

1

Baltimore Orioles

Kumar Rocker

RHP

6'5"

250

Vanderbilt

2

Kansas City Royals

Jack Leiter

RHP

6'1"

195

Vanderbilt

3

Miami Marlins

Luke Leto

SS

6'2"

190

Portage Central HS (MI)

4

Chicago White Sox

Colton Cowser

OF

6'3"

190

Sam Houston State

5

Detroit Tigers

Jud Fabian

OF

6'1"

180

Florida

6

San Diego Padres

Matt McLain

SS

5'10"

175

UCLA

7

Cincinnati Reds

Alex Binelas

3B

6'3"

210

Louisville

8

Texas Rangers

Braylon Bishop

OF

6'1"

180

Texarkana HS

9

Boston Red Sox

Adrian Del Castillo

C

5'11"

205

Miami

10

San Francisco Giants

Brady House

SS

6'3"

200

Winder-Barrow HS (GA)

11

Toronto Blue Jays

Ethan Wilson

OF

6'2"

205

South Alabama

12

New York Mets

Jaden Hill

RHP

6'4"

215

LSU

13

Colorado Rockies

Mike Vasil

RHP

6'4"

201

Virginia

14

Philadelphia Phillies

Izaac Pacheco

3B

6'4"

200

Friendswood HS (TX)

15

Los Angeles Angels

Mason Pelio

RHP

6'4"

215

Boston College

Mack observation:

  If the Mets keep playing lousy, they could be in position to pick this killer out of LSU. Electric righty with high-90s gas. + 70 slider and average change. Missed most of 2019 due to injuries. Some project him as high as 1.3.

2020 stat line:  4-G, 0-ST, 0.00, 0.54. 11.2-IP, 17-K

LSU had three other quality starters that lines up first, but I truly feel Hill’s future is as a starter.

-  -  -  - 

Johnny Ray    

RHP   6-2   220   TCU 

 

An interesting story tale… 

Ray attended 2018 attending Illinois State, but he was not a member of the baseball team. He switched schools in 2019 to John A, Logan College and eventually earned the honor of being ranked in the top 15 prospects in the state by Baseball America. 

And then came another transfer to TCU for the 2020 season… 4-starts, Friday starter, 1-1, 2.53, 21.1-IP, 21-K. Batters only produced a .181-BA against him.

 

Mack observation: 

What a great story. Only thing missing here is whether or not he can belt out ballads. 

Here’s another guy that has been robbed of the precious time he needed to prove he can become viable in this draft. I think he can, but, because of the high talent level this year, I just don’t see him going above the 5th round. That’s where I have him and I would gladly draft him there. 

-  -  -  - 

Cal Conley    

SS   5-10   180   Texas Tech 

 

Conley was a red-shirt freshman, that transferred to Texas Tech from Miami before the 2020 season. He was one of many players that left Miami after the 2018 season and had to sit out 2019 because of that. 

He was a stud in high school. Being ranked as the number tenth player to come out of a Ohio High School… .475, 2-HR, 22-RBI, 11-SB. 

So what happened in 2020?  18-GP, 70-AB, .371/.444/.643, 3-HR

 

Mack Observation - 

Scouts say that Conley is projected to stick as a shortstop, but I think he really hurt his future draft status by leaving Miami and having to sit out a full season. You then add this 2020 mess and he just hasn’t played enough baseball to be considered a day one pick. 

Lastly, it is not easy for an American shortstop to play up to the excellence that comes out of Latin America at this position. 

For all these reasons, I would pass here.

 

Cole Stilwell    

1B   6-0   200   Texas Tech 

 

TxTech - FRESHMAN SEASON (2019)
Started 32 of the 42 games he appeared, mostly used as a designated hitter against left-handed starters … recorded a batting average of .268 and an on-base percentage of .408 … tallied 50 total bases, including ten extra base hits in 123 plate appearances … posted a nine game hitting streak in 2019 that ranked as the fourth-longest on the team … in the field, Stilwell posted an error-free fielding percentage of 1.000 with 26 put outs and four assists … 

2020 Stat line:  17-G, 55-AB, .345/.500/.564, 14-BB, 2-HR

 

Mack observation - 

We look to first base prospects as individuals that can hit the ball consistently out of the park. Stilwell reminds me of the walk-first Brandon Nimmo. 

Like I have said in past observations, I believe in the ‘best player available’ approach to the draft, but, for certain positions like first, I am not going to ‘waste’ one of my early round picks on someone that plays the same position as two of our young stars.

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