Observations from Mack - The Mets Outlook

Good morning.

I’m having such a hard time getting this post started. Do I talk about the five game winning streak? Do I talk about the latest fold against the Cubs? Do I pump this team up? Or do I just tell the truth and tell you what I think?

I’ll go with truth.

What I’m not going to do is rant that Ronny Mauricio should be playing in Queens, or that Daniel Vogelbach should retire, buy a guitar, and change his name to Dan Fogelberg. Also, not play Mark Vientos all this time or quote some of the low batting averaged from the so-called big stars on this team. No, I’ll leave that to the other writers, you, and your Mets friends on places like Facebook or Twitter.

For me, it starts, and ends with pitching.

And continuing with all the things I’m not going to do here, I’m not going write about the age of the starters, the pitchers traded, or the injuries incurred. Every team has pitching injuries, even big teams like the Braves and Yankees, but they don’t seem to be having little problems posting win-loss records that qualify them for the playoffs.

I don’t want to look back at what already has happened this season, but this division is being led by a team that looks like it will easily post up a 100+ win season. Teams that do this don’t have fan bases that are excited that “after one more bad outing, we can replace Cookie with Joey”.

The Mets, simply put, do not have enough talent in both their starters and pen, to reach the playoffs this season. Finished. Done. Over and out. Kaput.

I will step out and focus on one area though. No teams gets to or goes deep in the playoffs without three decent starters. We all know that the only problem that Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer has is their age-related injury potention… well, that and Max’s Vitalis problem… but the Mets needed Kodai Senga to become a positive factor this year in the rotation. He hasn’t. The league has quickly realized that if you don’t swing when he dishes up the forkball, it’s going to wind up in the dirt before it gets to the catcher and the ump will call it correctly as a ball. Looks like a strike when it starts. Ends going down under.

So, they had a good outing from Cookie, both Joey Lucchese and David Peterson are pitching well  in Syracuse, and Tylor Megill is turning out decent SP5 numbers. Enough? Hell no.

We know that Lucchese has never really pitched well at the major league level, and Peterson seems to have forgotten how to. One good Carrasco outing doesn’t make  a season.

I look at this rotation and see two old guys that probably only produce their worse outings going forward in the range of six innings pitched with three runs given up (oops). And Megill will do just fine in the SP5 slot. This is the good news.

The secret of where this team goes in the future lies in the SP3 and SP4 slots, especially after they play their last game today against “easy” competition for quite awhile.

And, by the way, how did that playing against easy competition work out?

And I haven’t even written here about a limited talented pen that is already overworked and hitting the wall.

Beginning Tuesday, the Mets play 3x Phils, 3x Toronto, 3x Braves, 3x Pirates, 2x Yankees 3x Cardinals, 3x Astros, 3x Phils, 3x Brewers, and end the month of June with three games against the Giants.

This current team can barely stay above .500 against easy teams and now this smacks you in the head.

There are some things they can do…

In my opinion:

-Senga’s fork is consistently ending out of the zone. Batters have figured that out and are working their at-bat towards a walk. Walks are good (just ask Vogy), but only if you get the rest of the batters out. Is the American baseball causing his pitches to dive down too much? A simple solution here would be to teach Kodai to start these pitches out shoulder high so then still end of out of the zone but just below the box.

-Prematurely move Mike Vasil to AAA-Syracuse. Sure, it’s a little early, but he does have eight starts for the B-Mets. Movement usually begins in the 10 starts range. He was pulled early last outing but I really don’t see an issue here. In wartime, poorly trained troops are very often sent to the front to continue their training in case the war ready line begins thinning out. Well, this is a war and the Mets may need this guy in a pinch.

-Get Jose Quintana on a steady rehab to get back by mid-June. Maybe he can help here.

-Complete the conversion of bats needed to create more 6+ runs per game results. Promote Ronny Mauricio and put him on second. Move the Mets’ best hitter, Jeff McNeil to full time left. Make Mark Vientos your full time DH facing both right and left-handed pitching. And keep Brett Baty on third and Francisco Alvarez behind the plate as regulars (and get Alvy out of that 9^th at-bat slot and move him beind the Polar Bear).

-And get those under-producing bats out of the lineup. Make them utility players, DFA them, trade them, send them down, or release them. I really don’t care, but it would sure help if you could trade for one decent reliever for one or all of them.

-Memorial Day begins the “win the series” plan. This especially works against teams you play in your own division. Trust me. You win your series, you win it all.

Will this make the Mets a playoff team?  

Well, only if some teams come back to earth like the Pirates seem to be doing right now. Let’s project that the Braves, Dodgers, and Brewers win their divisions. My guess is Arizona is a lock for Wild Card #1. That leaves two more between the Pirates, the Mets, the Giants, the Marlins, the Padres, and the Phillies.

It can happen. 

I don’t believe it will, but I welcome the Mets proving me wrong. 

Tom Brennan - No Room for What Might Be Vogelbach's Best Role on Today's MLB Rosters

Rusty Staub was a Grand Orange Indeed as a Pinch Hitter

Two fondly remembered lumbering Mets lefties, Rusty Staub and Ed Kranepool, combined for 190 career pinch hits back when teams many times had room on their rosters for a pinch hitting specialist, a role Vogelbach could fill, except there is no room on today’s rosters for those (or for 3rd string catchers). 

Back in the day, 15 roster hitters, 10 roster pitchers.  Nowadays, 13 roster hitters, 13 roster pitchers.

Fat, slow former Tiger Gates Brown was just such a PH specialist.

Brown holds the AL record for the most pinch-hit at bats in a career, with 414. In his career, Brown collected 107 pinch hits including 16 pinch homers - both AL career records.

But, alas, when teams only have 13 hitter roster spots, because of no starting pitcher outing length, rather than 15 hitter roster spots, there is no room for a "Daniel Vogelbach, pinch hitting specialist" role in baseball.

Lacking pinch hitting specialists can be painful, though.  Last year, as the Mets won 101 games, the Mets were 12 for 83 in pinch hitting, with 1 HR and 10 RBIs, disgraceful output indeed.  

Atlanta, surprisingly, was just 9 for 40 in pinch hitting with 2 RBIs in 2022 (data source: Baseball Reference).  

The average team was 20 for 93 with 2 HRs and 13 RBIs when pinch hitting in 2022.  Not good.  

Ed Kranepool in one Mets season was a superb 17 for 35 as a pinch hitter, by comparison.  Rusty and Gates were also both real tough in that role.  Baseball doesn't embrace rusty gates today, however.

Clearly, that specialization does not exist today. Another loss for baseball in today's game.

OF COURSE…THERE’S THIS FLAW…

After Vogie’s fanning looking for the 15th time, I saw that Jose Reyes tweeted this:

“I’m not sure if Vogey understands this concept but you have to SWING THE BAT to hit the ball…”

Meanwhile, PITCHER Harris Brodey is for real….

The converted OF to reliever in Brooklyn has fanned 13 in 7 innings over his last 3 outings in his inaugural pro pitching season, while walking just 2. Wow. 2.65 ERA too.  

He might be a top 10 pitcher in the Mets minors. He is the anti-Ankiel. 

Brodey might end up reminding us of a shortstop who once upon a time converted into a Mets two time Cy Young winner, whose name eludes me, but I seem to remember it rhymes with ache and break. Help me out here, people.

METS’ KIDS VS. MARGINAL VETS

6 Mets’ vets hitting like Mutts provide our 4 lads (Alvarez, Baty, Vientos and Mauricio) quite the opportunity to enhance the Mets’ offense.

The combo of Escobar, Pham, Canha, Guillorme, Vogelbach and Nido have produced 112 hits in 527 at bats (.212) with just 21 doubles, 12 HRs and 51 RBIs.  If one guy did all that, he’d retire or be released.

An easy bar to clear.

The 3 kids, Alvy, Baty, and Vienty, are a combined 54 for 218 (.249), with 9 doubles, 10 HRs, and 29 RBIs. 

An upgrade. Bar cleared.

And you say Vientos is just 2 for 15? Well, Alvarez started out 1 for 15, but has been sensational since. Solution?

Play all 3, and call up # 4.

HOME COOKING

Mets have played 31 on the road (15-16) and just 21 at home (12-9). A big plus, hopefully, going forward. 60 left at home vs. just 50 remaining games on the road. Time for some HOME COOKING, MA.

Reese Kaplan -- How to Solve the Mets DH Problem In-House

When the Designated Hitter (DH) role was implemented back in 1973 everyone was up in arms about this structural change in the lineups and the fact that an extra hitter would now take the place of the pitcher coming for his turn at the plate.  No one knew what to expect nor how it would be best utilized, but quickly it became apparent that a hitter with limited defensive skills could better serve a team doing that one thing he did best while minimizing the damage he would cause while in the field.  

As a New Yorker, the first standout DH in my memory was Ron Blomberg.  The man could certainly hit the ball and finished his injury-shortened career with a lifetime .293 batting average while exhibiting decent power and run production.  Since he was not well regarded as a first baseman or outfielder the DH role seemed tailor made for his abilities.  He was a platoon DH getting about half-time usage in the lineup and he truly made the most of it while opening folks eyes to the fact that a younger man really could assume a hitting-only role while becoming a functional asset to the team.

So, if by definition the DH position was created to generate more offense and excitement into the game, why have the New York Mets not quite understood the history and purpose of the role?  I won't bore you with the laundry list of DH failures the Mets have inserted into DH-duty, but none of them will make you forget Harold Baines, David Ortiz, Edgar Martinez nor Frank Thomas.

Obviously despite a Friday 10-run outburst the Mets offense is not using all of its cylinders on a regular basis and sacrificing 4 ABs per game by failing to assign a potent hitter to the role simply exacerbates the struggle to score runs.  

Many folks have wondered aloud about whether the Mets would use Mark Vientos in this role since 1st and 3rd are already occupied by Pete Alonso and Brett Baty.  Some people advocated using Eduardo Escobar who has power but his extended slumps since wearing a Mets uniform make many fans quiver between hostility and nausea at that suggestion.  One thing nearly everyone agrees upon is that neither Daniel Vogelbach nor Tommy Pham aka VogelPham are the answer.  

With the return of defensive whiz Tomas Nido in place of the past-his-prime Gary Sanchez, it would appear that Francisco Alvarez may not relinquish his number one role as the catcher of the future but could be thrust into that DH role when projected starting catcher Omar Narvaez returns.  In effect it means trading off VogelPham for Narvaez in terms of offense.  I don't see that this change would be a quantum leap forward in terms of improvement.  

If you're continuing to look past Mark Vientos then there is another DH candidate looming who has major defensive problem -- Ronny Mauricio.  This infielder already has 11 errors in the first two months of the season but it's not impacting his ability to swing the bat nor run the bases.  In 2022 for Binghamton he hit 26 home runs, drove in 89 and stole 20 bases.  He's off to an even better start this year with 7 HRs, 33 RBIs, 9 SBs and a .351 batting average.  

So if Jeff McNeil is going to play second base, he can't play there.  If Francisco Lindor is going to play shortstop he can't play there.  So what about making a 22 year old designated hitter who doesn't bring costly fielding into the equation anymore?  Then you are trading VogelPham for Mauricio straight up in the lineup.  Mauricio is a switch hitter so he could play every day or simply platoon the DH position with Mark Vientos.  Either of these two approaches should increase the potential for scoring runs and hitting the ball over the wall, something neither Vogelbach nor Pham have been doing in 2023.

If the Braves can bring up young talent and have them play with positive results, why do the Mets place artificial roadblocks on players' careers at the expense of poorly performing veterans?

Mike's Mets - Rise and Fall

 

By Mike Steffanos

For my own sake, I'm just refusing to react to every peak or dip in the New York Mets' season.

There have been a handful of times in my life when things are going so well that I wish I had some mechanism to freeze things exactly where they were. Not a permanent suspension of time, of course. Just a long enough period of stasis where I could truly enjoy the place I found myself without having to wonder when the inevitable moment of returning to reality would come. Because, no matter what, something will always come along and knock you back off the pedestal of good fortune. But the knowledge that nothing good goes on forever is also why I've learned to not fast-forward recklessly past a terrific moment in anticipation of the tantalizing possibility of another one.

In Ancient Rome, when a general won a great victory, he was given a "triumph" upon his return to the great city: an ostentatious parade through the streets. In reality, the purpose was more to impress upon the citizens of Rome the greatness of their empire than to celebrate the achievements of one particular man. In fact, to try to ensure that the conquering general didn't get too full of himself, a slave was given an important task:

...behind the victorious general in the chariot stood a slave, holding a golden crown over his head, and whispering to him throughout the procession, "Remember you are mortal" in the ears of the victorious generals as they were paraded through the streets, reminding him that he is a man even when he is triumphing.

I doubt many long-time Mets fans would need any reminder that the team they root for is populated by mortals. The scars of the Wilpon years are just too fresh for that. But still, there was a heady moment this winter when the Mets reached an agreement with Carlos Correa that almost anything seemed possible. Even I, who should understand the perils of giving in to magical thinking about this ball club all too well after watching Lucy yank that football away over and over for five decades, allowed myself to contemplate a glorious future for the Mets, full of non-stop triumphs. The voice of that slave was momentarily drowned out by the magic of finally having an owner who seemed absolutely all-in on bringing a winner back to Queens. I allowed myself to get a bit giddy, although I fully understood that not everything that happens over a baseball offseason works out quite how I hope.

Well, the Correa saga reminded us that "pending a physical" is much more than just an insignificant asterisk. But it also served to shake me out of my momentary flirtation with euphoria. The Mets had added plenty to their roster over the winter. When it began, I wondered if the organization might choose to take a step back and spend the 2023 season trying to integrate their rookies and position themselves for a future playoff push. After all, the costs of rebuilding the Mets into a genuine contender seemed to be ridiculously high.

There proved to be little need to worry. Steve Cohen demonstrated to Mets fans that he meant business — and then some. Even without Carlos Correa, the 2023 Mets would be a legit contender, although much would depend on the health and performance of aging stars. But there were certainly plenty of chances for things to go sideways, and that's how it played out over the first quarter of a season.

To finish reading this article on Mike's Mets, please click here.

Tom Brennan - Where, Oh Where, is the Mets Minors Hitting?

Mr. Braveheart politely asks: 

"WHAT ARE WE, MEN? SLUGGERS? OR SLUGGARDS?"

I look at stuff like the the offense in the minors from time to time. 

Don't you?  Well, DON'T YOU?

Whether you do or don't, here is the 50,000 foot view (thru Wednesday):

Brooklyn?

Last in average (.215) by nearly 10 points.

Last in OPS (.639 vs. next worst team's .675).

Last in HRs (21).

Second to last in runs scored by 1 run with 164 runs.   (Greenville 246 runs, 2 more per game.)

Of course, they hit in Hitters' Hell in Brooklyn, which is a clear factor in hitter woes, but while doing better on the road, are not excelling there either.

Also, 8 hitters are below the fabled Mendoza Line.  Those 8 are 83 for 491 (.169).  

Note to those Brooklyn hitters: the Mets will never call up High A hitters who hit below .200. Do better. 

St Lucie? 

Last in average (.212).

Second to last in OBP (.317).

One point away from a tie for worst OPS (.644).

Last in runs (161); next worst team 171.  

 - Clearwater at 251, 2 more per game.

Adrian Hernandez, a former $1.5 million bonus baby and now 22 years old, is hitting 6 for 41 (.146), and just 20 for 149 from 2021 thru 2023.  Too many such non-hitters, and the Mets dumped another former bonus baby, Greg Guerrero, this past off season for extreme inability to hit.  Not every bonus baby can be an Alvarez or Mauricio, I suppose.

8 Lucie hitters with 10 or more ABs are under .200.  Combined, they are 59 for 381 (.154), so they are 46 points below the Mendoza Line.

Note to those St Lucie hitters: the Mets will never call up Low A hitters who hit below .200. Do better.

Binghamton?

2nd to last in average at .220.

2nd to last in OPS with .688.

9th of 12 in runs (181).

10th of 12 in HRs with 33.

These low rankings, despite having arguably the Eastern League's hottest hitter in Matt Rudick, who is barely 2nd (to Henry Davis) in OPS and leading the league by a wide margin in OBP, and Jose Peroza, who is producing the 5th highest RBI-per-game rate in the league. The rest of the team collectively is hitting exactly .200. 

7 Binghamton hitters are hitting below .200, totaling 93 for 530 (.175). 

Note to all other Binghamton hitters besides Rudick and Peroza: the Mets will never call up AA hitters who hit below .200. Do better.

Syracuse?

A weird one to evaluate because the team is an amalgamation of rookie hitters who were smoking until 3 were called up, and several reasonably productive AAAA veterans.  That said:

14th of 20 in average.

6th of 20 in HRs.

10th of 20 in scoring.

Helped, of course, by sizzling Ronny Mauricio, the remaining minors-imprisoned prospect of the "prospect quartet".  R Mo is ahead by 6 doubles with 22; 3rd in average at .351; 11th in RBIs with 33 (Mark Vientos had 37 RBIs and 13 HRs in 38 AAA games when called up to sit on the Mets' bench and observe).  Rumblings that R Mo May soon be called up are beginning, BTW. Amen to that.

And Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez (the first 2 "Quartet Call Ups") combined for 7 HRs in 51 at bats before their call ups. (Both hit great in the Mets’ 10-1, cookie-resplendent win last night over the Shlubs

BTW, 6 Syracuse hitters are hitting below .200 (56 for 343, .163).

Note to those Syracuse hitters: the Mets will never call up AAA hitters who hit below .200. Do better.

So, overall, a familiar annual hitting refrain emanates:

Why (with a few very notable exceptions) do the Mets' minors hitters hit so poorly?  Why are so many sluggards, not sluggers?

Bad drafting?  Bad coaching?  Bad parks?  All three? Something else?

Edward G. Robinson asked it this way:

"I pose the questions, see, you're the experts, see, so what are your answers?"

Before I go, for the 4 teams above, those teams have a total of 29 hitters below .200. 

Those 29 sub-.200s are hitting a combined 291 for 1,745 (.166). 

Those teams have 5,467 combined at bats, so the sub-.200 hitters comprise 32% of those total at bats. 

Remarkable.  At least, I find it remarkable.   

A few other regulars, I thought I would mention, are barely above .200.  A hit or two less for those guys, and it would not have been 32%, it would have been closer to 40%.

Reese Kaplan -- A Starting Pitcher Who Can Make or Break the Mets

Despite the bad start in Chicago, as the Mets are lately still winning more than they are losing, a lot of the focus has been on the hitting.  Some folks seem to have awakened lately with surprise contributions like Eduardo Escobar, Francisco Alvarez and even Mark Canha.  Still, the offense is in need of a major boost if the club is going to be serious about contending.

Recently the double dip by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander indicated what the club can do if they get the pitching that had been envisioned all along.  Granted, Tylor Megill is not coming off a great start and Carlos Carrasco is hoping to recover from his first start of the season.

The one player who may be the make or break for the Mets starting rotation is Japanese import Kodai Senga.  We have seen what he is capable of doing when he’s on top of his game and we’ve also experienced wildness that has been a fairly chronic condition.  In his Cubs start he made life difficult for himself by granting free passes that resulted in runs.

However, look at how he handled the edges of the zone in his 5th inning and you can envision that after his North American growing pains are over he can be a magician on the mound.  He threw some of the nastiest sliders I’ve seen in a very long time and if he can get the ball either over the plate or appearing as if it will be in the strike zone, then those bases on balls should tone down while his strikeout numbers rise.

Although he holds a huge place in Mets history though not always in the hearts of the fans, he reminds me somewhat of John Franco.  Hear me out.  Forget the lefty/righty disparity.  What clicked in my head is how Franco got batters out.  He would throw pitches all around the zone but often not across the plate.  The end result was having batters taking bad swings by misjudging the motion of his pitches and this Hall of Fame caliber reliever finished his career with a 2.89 ERA, 424 saves and 90 wins out of the bullpen.  

He threw what I liked to call the illusion of a strike and I can foresee Kodai Senga doing something very similar.  Once he masters getting near the strike zone but not smack down the middle of it then he will be a very dangerous pitcher who hopefully will be a major cog in the Mets rotation for several years.

Envision for a minute what the club would be like with a revamped Kodai Senga, Scherzer, Verlander, the better of either Carrasco or Megill and the disabled but quality pitching Jose Quintana in the starting rotation.  If you were giving up under 4 runs per game from the starting rotation consistently then the suspect offense might just be enough as it is.  

Not to throw a bucket of water on this highlighted cause for celebration, but remember the ages of your top two starting pitchers.  It may be that the club is going to have to reach into its lower minors or free agency or make trades because pitchers at or over 40 are usually not long term options (particularly when they are earning over $40 million each for what might be declining health or ability).

The Mack Report - Daniel Murphy, Pete Alonso, Buck Showalter, Tyler Stuart, Power Ratings

 The Mack Report - Daniel Murphy, Pete Alonso, Buck Showalter, Tyler Stuart, Power Ratings 

 

                                                        (PC - Mack)

NJ.com - Why is ex-Mets star — who earned $90M — still playing minor-league ball at 38? - 

Why — at 38, after making roughly $90 million during his major-league career, earning a degree in business management, and with four kids at home — is Daniel Murphy schlepping around the East Coast as a minor-leaguer while fans point and say, “Hey, didn’t he used to be ...?” 

The former Mets infielder, a three-time All-Star who retired with a .296 career average, says it’s because he’s become part historian, part mad scientist — discovering a new love for the game by studying its past while being energized by the physics of reinventing his swing. 

Mack - I put up a picture of Daniel that I took at spring training, the year that he was told to learn to become a starting second baseman. Up to then, his defense at that position was sub-par. 

I caught him on a back field working with one coach who continued, over and over, to send out grounders to him there. This went on for well into 30 minutes,

 

                                            (PC - Brad Penner)

Matt Musico - Mets’ Pete Alonso: premier power hitter and … professional air humper? - 

This is also the exact kind of thing that will be received in two different ways. It will endear him to the Mets fanbase that much more, along with making fans of other teams despise him even more. And you know what, that’s fine. We don’t want Pete going anywhere else anyways. 

In a perfect world, I would’ve liked to have seen him sign a contract extension prior to Opening Day. But either way, it’s coming, and the man is going to get a truckload of cash thanks to his importance to the Mets. 

Mack - Look. With Alonso, you get what you get. He is pure spontaneous emotion and adrenaline, 99% of the time being positive. He’s the heart of the Mets. Period. 

Ken Rosenthal - MLB Manager Status Check — How comfortable is each skipper’s future? - 

Buck Showalter, Mets: Yes, he was NL Manager of the Year just last season, but before the Mets’ current five-game winning streak, with every victory by one run, Showalter did not necessarily appear secure. Such is life for the manager of the most expensive team in major-league history, under an owner whose level of patience likely does not match his desire to win. 

While Showalter, who turns 67 on Tuesday, is under contract through next season, Steve Cohen figures to make significant changes if the season ends badly. The recent performances of the Baby Mets helped revitalize the club, but so much depends upon Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, both of whom pitched brilliantly in Sunday’s doubleheader sweep of the Guardians. 

Mack - I believe that Buck is secure as the Mets manager, whether they succeed or fail. It’s not his fault that this year’s pitchers went south. He didn’t trade or sign them, nor did he cause them any injuries. 

I believe this will be his last managerial job and he will manage the Mets until he chooses to retire,

 

Eric Samulski - Mets pitcher Tyler Stuart emerging for Brooklyn Cyclones in 2023 - 

The right-hander stands an imposing 6’9” and 250-pounds and, as is often the case with pitchers of that size, finding repeatable mechanics had been an issue for him in his young career. Getting all those long and hulking levers to move the right way on 80+ pitches a night can be a truly difficult task. However, the Mets clearly have been working with him on it, and the progress is showing. 

Mack - It’s my belief the Mets have a winner here. 

Wanna stand in against a 6-9 pitcher throwing 99?  Come on. I dare ya. 

Right now, he has a small blister/cracked nail situation going on on one of his pitching hand’s fingers, but it’s my belief, at max, he will miss only one start. 

Look for Stuart to finish the season with the B-Mets. 

 

Zach Buchanan, Nick Groke and Stephen Nesbitt -MLB Power Rankings - 

14. New York Mets

Record: 25-23

Last Power Ranking: 18 

I can say with a certain degree of confidence that, when healthy, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander will deliver good results for the Mets. I will say no such thing, however, about a handful of veterans currently populating the Mets’ lineup and bench. 

To oversimplify here, let’s say that if league-average OPS in 2023 is .728 (which it is) then residing in the .600s or below is a real bummer. And that’s where Eduardo Escobar (.685), Luis Guillorme (.591) and three of four outfielders — Starling Marte (.620), Mark Canha (.666), Tommy Pham (.664) — all reside. 

That’s not even counting those with fewer than 20 games played this season. For Steve Cohen and the Mets, the quickest path to first place is to get those bats back on track. Marte had three hits Sunday to bounce his batting average from a career-low .231 to still-a-career-low .245, and he also homered and hosed a former teammate from right field, so maybe he, like the Mets, is coming around. — SN 

Mack - Don’t care about this. 

How about who is leading with the most wins?

Paul Articulates - An extra cookie

The Mets have certainly had their struggles this year with the starting rotation, from the Quintana and Verlander injuries to the inability to keep Max on a regular five day schedule.  But today’s post is going to focus on one player in particular – Carlos Carrasco.

Carrasco was part of the huge trade the Mets made with Cleveland in January 2021 that brought Francisco Lindor to New York.  Although Carlos was not the highlight of the trade, Carrasco was thought to be a big benefit, as he added a very experienced arm to the Mets rotation, bringing 88 career wins, a 3.77 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP to the team.  This is not SP1 material, but he slotted as a better-than-average back end of the rotation guy.

Since coming to the Mets, Carrasco has not been able to produce those kinds of numbers.  He did have a promising beginning to the 2022 season, posting a 10-4 record before the all-star break, but he then digressed over the second half.  Over the past two full seasons plus the beginning of this year, he has gone 16-14 with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP.  These are not the kind of statistics you would look for in a starting pitcher regardless of slot.  

He is 36 years old, which is typically a time when pitchers are in decline and the Mets knew that when they acquired him.  This year, however has been particularly alarming as he has been prone to very shaky starts.  His first inning ERA this year is 13.50.  That means that the team is almost always coming from behind during his starts.

With the return of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander to the regular rotation (fingers crossed) and a healthy Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill behind them, the SP5 slot would normally be filled by the best available starter.  David Peterson could have held that role but he has had a very troubling start and is currently in Syracuse trying to rework himself.  

Joey Lucchesi has shown some great promise, Jose Butto has had a few good call-up starts, Jose Quintana is possible for a late July return, and there are some good young arms working their way up through the minor league system.   So it seems that there are options for the Mets in the SP5 role if Cookie can’t regain his form.  However, what are the options for Carlos if he is not starting?

Option 1: Middle relief.  I don’t see this happening, as Carrasco’s biggest problem this year has been his first inning in the game.  If we are behind or trying to hold a slim lead after 5 innings it is not advisable to bring in someone with a 13.50 first-inning ERA to start the sixth.  I don’t believe he has ever held a middle reliever role, so his “get-ready” time may also be in question.

Option 2: Late relief.  Nope.  Same reason.

Option 3: Trade bait.  This is an option for anyone that doesn’t fit a role with the team, but in the case of a pitcher in decline with a $14M salary there is not much market out there.  The Mets would find it very difficult to get much return for a straight-up Carrasco trade, and would undoubtedly eat the rest of his salary if he was an add-on to a bigger trade.

Option 4: DFA.  This would be a cold, hard end to his baseball career, and my compassionate side doesn’t want to see this happen.  However, given the other three options above, this one makes the most sense in the baseball “business”.

So the hard reality is right in front of us.  If Carlos Carrasco cannot improve his performance as a starting pitcher with the Mets, there does not appear to be an alternative role with the team and the front office faces a difficult decision on what to do with an “extra cookie”.

Tom Brennan - June 5 Rocks; Parada Speed-Up? Mauricio Pace; Mets' Starter Length

What Real Mets Fan Doesn't Love the DSL? ("Duh…What's a DSL?")

First, though, last night, fiery little Marcus Stroman beat on the taller Mets.  

Why, one might ask, is the Mets' best hitter, Frankie Alvarez, not hitting clean up?

 - Alvarez had 2 of their 4 hits, his 6th HR, & both Mets RBIs in a 4-2 loss,   

Mighty Matt Rudick had his 7th HR, another hit & a walk last night. 

 - OBP .468. 

 - On base 12 times in his last 4 games. 

 - Slug % .582. 

 - OPS 1.050.

 - An unacknowledged hitting machine is Mighty Matty. 

 - Barry Bonds had a career .444 OBP and .607 slug %. OPS 1.051.

 - Don't dismiss Matt, even if he isn't Barry Bonds and instead is little, like Marcus.

Now on to my article du jour.

June 5 is Cinco de Juno.

It is also opening day in the dandy Dominican Summer League.

The Mets will have two (count 'em, two) teams: 

DSL Mets Blue, and DSL Mets Orange.

It should be a colorful season.  And hopefully very dandy for the players.

The Florida Complex League Mets start June 5 too!

Hopefully, not much that is complex, but much that is simply winning.

Three more teams to look for signs of hope in.

So please, mark your calendars and take your pom poms out of the closet.

Celebration time.

Hopefully, some of the 3 teams' players will be the next Francisco Alvarez or Ronny Mauricio.

JUST A THOUGHT INVOLVING ACCELERATED MINORS LEARNING:

I sometimes wonder...what would happen if you signed a kid like Kevin Parada and put him right in AAA?

Sure, he'd likely do poorly at the plate, jumping to far more talented pitchers than he faced in college.

But after, say, a few months, would he begin to hit AAA caliber?  

As Jamie Foxx said in the movie "Collateral" when thrust into an impossible situation and he realized that to survive, this had to be his approach:

"ADAPT, DARWIN, I CHING. WHATEVER MAN, WE GOTTA ROLL WITH IT".

So would Kevin Parada adapt, and accelerate his path to the bigs, or just fail by going too far, too fast? It would be fun to see it tried out in baseball. 

In football, and in hoops, guys go right from college to the NFL and NBA. I’m just suggesting college to AAA for your elite prospects.

MAURICIO PACE

Sometimes, when you ignore the static on your black and white TV set and simply DO adjust your dial, you see things with blinding clarity.  

The clarified subject today? DOUBLES.

Yeah, yeah, chicks dig homers, I know, but doubles are babe magnets, too.  

And Ronny Knows Doubles, my friends.

Dig this:

The MLB record for doubles in a season? 67.

Mauricio has 22 two baggers in 47 games.

At that pace over 162 games, that would be 76 doubles.

SEVENTY FRIGGIN' SIX.

So stop with the" But..But..But" stuff.

This dude is totally smoking. Totally ready. No buts about it.

Maybe Billy Eppler needs to adjust his dial just a little bit, too, like us.

Clarity is paramount. Especially when you've got a player heading for...

The Outer Limits.

DSL KEY SIGNINGS:

This info, from an article of mine a few months back, might be useful.

NY Mets ($5,284,000 total pool) - most of it spent on 4 players:

Daiverson Gutierrez, C, Venezuela (27th overall - $1.9 million bonus): a Mets' website article by a gentleman named Jesse Sanchez said the following about him and the next two players: Gutierrez can hit, and his above-average power potential is noteworthy. His power has drawn comparisons to Francisco Álvarez at the same age.  On defense, Gutierrez has a chance to have an above-average arm along with other emerging skills behind the plate. He has been praised for his plus makeup and his leadership skills. 

Anthony Baptist, OF, Dominican Republic (29th overall - $1.1 million bonus): For those of you who crave speed, Sanchez says this: Baptist is one of the fastest players in the class and also one of the most exciting. He is expected to start in center field and stay at the position as he develops, primarily because of his speed, but also because he has the potential to be an above-average defender. He can chase balls down in the outfield, and like all prospects his age, he is working on fine-tuning his routes and angles.  

The hope is that his speed -- he has been consistently clocked at 6.1 seconds in the 60-yard-timed run -- will also come into play on the bases and he can develop into a base-stealer in the future.

Christopher Larez, SS, Venezuela (43rd overall - $1.5 million bonus): Sanchez writes: He is one of the most polished shortstops in the class and has a chance to be a five-tool player at a premium position.  He already shows good bat-to-ball skills and has a chance to be a plus hitter in the future. There’s a chance he develops more power as he grows and his body matures. 

Defensively, his instincts are noteworthy, and he features all of the skills an emerging middle infielder needs to make his way through the Minor Leagues and eventually the big leagues.  

Daviel Hurtado, LHP, Cuba ($640,000 bonus) - I had read that the lefthander has a fastball up to 95 mph and a big curveball. Pretty HOT for a young hurler.

27 guys were signed in mid-January, and shown here in this article are the names of 20 of them:

Misael Lopez, LHP, Dominican Republic

 

Heriberto Rincon, OF, Dominican Republic

 

Enderson Asencio, OF, Dominican Republic

Julio Zaya, 3B, Dominican Republic

Derek Rodriguez, OF, Venezuela

Osiris Calvo, LHP, Dominican Republic

Wilmer Lugo, LHP, Venezuela

Henry Pizani, C, Venezuela

Jean Brito, RHP, Venezuela

Elwis Mijares, RHP, Venezuela

Jonathan Perez, OF, Venezuela

Leydeman Ruiz, SS, Venezuela

Keiver Garcia, SS, Venezuela

Jesus Anton, RHP, Venezuela

Misael Lopez, LHP, Dominican Republic

Vladi Gomez, SS, Dominican Republic

Brennan Thoughts: 

Most will never see the light of day in the major leagues, and perhaps most will never even make it to stateside minor league ball, but the annual cycle goes on and on and on.  Teams tend to spend the most money where they see the most potential, so I would imagine the top 3 especially, plus Hurtado, have good potential to climb to the major leagues in 4 to 6 years.  

Interesting, too, that almost all of the internationals come from VZ or the DR.  Guatemalans and Hondurans likely too soccer-focused.  Only baseball is a REAL sport, though.  Stop kicking balls and start hitting balls. I did also see that Baseball America apparently had Gutierrez higher, as # 20 and Larez higher,  as # 25, with Baptist also in their top 40.

Sanchez adds this, also informative: An international player is eligible to sign with a Major League team between Jan. 15 and Dec. 15. He must turn 16 before he signs and be 17 before Sept. 1 the following year -- in practical terms, that means players born between Sept. 1, 2005, and Aug. 31, 2006, will be eligible to sign in the upcoming signing period. Players have to be registered with MLB in advance in order to be eligible to sign.  Teams are allowed to trade international bonus pool money starting Jan. 15. 

LASTLY, IN THIS LENGTHY ARTICLE: 

METS STARTER LENGTH: 

In 1969, Mets' starters averaged 6.8 innings, while in 2023, until a few days ago, it was a mere 4.8 innings.  Brothers, this should not be so.  

It was good to see Max and Justin finally banging out some real innings last week, after Kodai the Friendly Ghost threw 6 brilliant innings in last week's start.  

More innings?  Ya gotta start somewhere, and this trio's last outings feel like the start of more Mets starter innings per start.    

Don't start in with me now - just start having a good day.  

And once you start your day, don't forget to relieve yourselves.