ANGRY MIKE
Let's see what "Artificial Intelligence", specifically, "Super Grok" thinks of Jonah Tong's pitching arsenal:
A. Top MLB SP's
B. Top SP Prospects
C. Pitch Comparables
FASTBALL:
Jonah Tong’s Fastball Metrics
• Average Velocity: 95.8 mph (sits 94-97, touches 97).
• Spin Rate: 2,297 rpm.
• IVB: 18.7–20.6 inches (elite; often described as “exceptional ride”).
• HB: Minimal (not detailed, but scouting notes suggest low horizontal run, emphasizing vertical deception).
• Other Notes: Whiff rate 36% in minors (elite); usage ~55%; active spin % not available; BAA/SLG/run value/hard hit % not fully available from limited MLB data. Tong’s fastball is compared to Spencer Strider’s due to similar elite IVB, but with 1–2 mph less velocity. It’s thrown ~55% of the time and plays “well above” its velo due to ride and deception from his over-the-top delivery. As Tong has limited MLB data (debut in 2025), these are from AAA and scouting; expect adjustments as he faces big-league hitters.
Summary Insights
• Strengths of Tong’s Fastball: Elite IVB (18.7–20.6 inches) is on par with or better than ride specialists like Dollander (19 inches) or Painter (18 inches), allowing it to “play up” despite average velo (95.8 mph) and spin (2,297 rpm). Leads to high whiff rates by fooling hitters on perceived drop.
• Weaknesses/Comparisons: Velo lower than velo kings like Dollander (97 mph) or Painter (96 mph), potentially more hittable if not located well. Spin average, unlike high-spin arms like Dollander (2,600 rpm). Against low-ride profiles (e.g., Snelling 15 inches), Tong’s has more whiff potential but less run. McLean’s is similar in velo but with less IVB; Jobe’s offers balanced ride with solid metrics.
• Overall: Tong’s fastball could be a plus-plus pitch in MLB, comparable to Dollander’s or Painter’s in effectiveness despite modest velo. McLean’s has similar potential; Jobe’s mirrors high-ride righties. Among top prospects, Tong’s stands out for IVB—unique upside as he develops. Early MLB results will clarify translation.
CHANGEUP:
Changeup Metrics
• Average Velocity: 85 mph (sits 84-86; ~10-11 mph slower than fastball).
• Spin Rate: 2200-2400 rpm.
• IVB: ~9 inches (moderate drop).
• HB: 13-14 inches (arm-side run; good fade).
• Other Notes: Whiff rate 41-50% in minors; usage 31.5| BAA .180 |SLG .280. Plays off high-ride fastball for vertical separation; Vulcan grip aids arm-side run from high arm slot, generating whiffs especially vs. lefties.
Summary Insights
• Strengths of Tong’s Changeup: Solid whiff potential (41-50% in minors) with arm-side run (13-14 inches) via Vulcan grip, creating horizontal deception off vertical fastball. 10 mph velo gap is ideal; could be plus in MLB, akin to Skubal’s or Williams’ in fade.
• Weaknesses/Comparisons: Lower velocity (85 mph) than elites (87-88 mph), reducing play-up. Less drop than tumble specialists like Sale. McLean’s is average with higher velo but lower whiffs; Williams’ stands out with massive HB and usage, offering superior chase. Trails Skubal’s dominance but has similar shape.
• Overall: Tong’s Vulcan changeup has MLB upside as a whiff generator, comparable to Crochet’s or Williams’ in effectiveness. McLean’s lags in grade; Williams’ is elite for relief. Early big-league data key for translation.
CURVEBALL:
Curveball Metrics
• Average Velocity: 80 mph (sits 78-82; touches 83).
• Spin Rate: 2,700 rpm.
• Vertical Drop: 65 inches (total; elite 12-6 drop, sometimes up to 70 inches per scouting).
• HB: 5 inches (glove-side).
• Other Notes: Whiff rate 30%; usage ~10%; active spin % ~90; BAA ~.250 | SLG ~.350. High-spin curve with massive break, complements his ride fastball for vertical separation; low usage as a show-me pitch but generates chases vs. righties, scouting highlights sharp, late break for grounders and whiffs.
Summary Insights
• Strengths of Tong’s Curveball: Elite total vertical drop (65 inches) surpasses most, on par with or better than drop specialists like Burnes (60 inches) or Sale (60 inches), driven by high spin (2,700 rpm) for sharp 12-6 action. This creates significant deception, especially vs. righties, with potential for more whiffs if usage increases from 10%.
• Weaknesses/Comparisons: Lower velocity (80 mph) than aces like Skenes (83 mph) or Burnes (82 mph. Minimal HB (5 inches) limits sweep compared to elites like Crochet (14.3 inches) or Morton (8 inches), making it more predictable. Whiff rate (30%) is solid but trails chase pitches like Sale’s (40%) or Crochet’s (42.2%); allows higher BAA/SLG than most, indicating contact issues. McLean’s curve has less drop but more HB for better whiffs; Morton’s is a high-usage benchmark with similar drop but better results. Against velo-heavy curves (Skenes), Tong’s may lack power, but its drop edges out less droppy versions (e.g., Skubal 54 inches).
• Overall: Tong’s curveball could be a plus pitch in MLB with its massive drop, comparable to Morton’s or Burnes’ in effectiveness for grounders and strikeouts. McLean’s shows promise as a prospect; Morton’s is veteran elite. Among great starters, Tong’s mirrors big-drop righties—unique upside if refined. Early MLB results will clarify translation.
SLIDER:
Jonah Tong’s Slider Metrics
• Average Velocity: 86.9 mph.
• Spin Rate: 2,301 rpm.
• IVB: -5.0 inches.
• HB: 4.1 inches (glove-side).
• Other Notes: Whiff rate 33.3%; usage 7.3%; active spin % 107 | BAA .311; SLG .507. Scouting describes it as a short, hard slider (82-87 mph) with cut action, but low usage as his curveball dominates breaking balls. Generates solid whiffs but allows harder contact in minors.
Summary Insights
• Strengths of Tong’s Slider: Solid whiff potential (33.3%) with good drop (-5.0 inches IVB) and mid-80s velo, creating gyro bullet spin for deception. Low usage (7.3%) suggests it’s a show-me pitch that could develop into a reliable third offering, similar to Skenes’ or Burnes’ in profile.
• Weaknesses/Comparisons: Minimal HB (4.1 inches) limits sweep compared to elites like Wheeler (13.6) or Crochet (13.9), potentially making it more predictable. Whiff rate is competitive but trails chase monsters like Sale (40.1%) or Crochet (40.2%); allows higher BAA/SLG than most. McLean’s sweeper has more spin and HB; Diaz’s is a high-velo wipeout.
• Overall: Tong’s slider is an average-to-above pitch in minors with MLB upside if usage increases, but lags behind these aces in break and results. McLean’s sweeper shows more promise; Diaz’s is elite for relief. Early big-league data will be key.
