2015 Prospect List - #29 – RHSP Michael Fulmer

My rankings is solely subjective and based on nothing more than what is in my head at time I’m writing this. I’ve followed the Mets minor league players for many years and I feel I can recognize talent at various levels of their development. What I have failed at is how to determine when this talent seems to diminish. It’s amazing how many first round picks never make it in this game.
I’m old school, so you won’t seem much SABR-discussion here, I do research and, when I find a good quote or two, I’ll add them to my analysis, but, like I said in the beginning of this post, most of this us subjective.
Let’s get started.

# 29  – RHSP Michael Fulmer

21-years old – 6-3, 200 – R/R – 1st Round pick in 2011

No college – Deer Creek H S (OK)

2011 – GCL – 4-G, 10.13, 2.44, 5.1-IP, 10-K

2012 – Savannah – 21-ST, 2.74, 1.20, 108.1-IP, 101-K

2013 – GCL/St. Lucie – 9-ST, 3.33, 1.13, 46-IP, 42-K

2014 – St. Lucie/B-Mets – 20-ST, 4.38, 1.54, 98.2-IP, 87-K


He came out of high school with a heralded low 90s fastball and a verbal commitment to Arkansas that very few thought he would break. Baseball America had him ranked at the 45th player in the draft. Additionally, Keith Law said he had one of the best curve balls in the draft.

Everything went great, at first, in the 2012 season, where he headed up the Savannah rotation. But then the injuries set in.

First, it was a torn meniscus, which he further injured in the spring of 2013. This was followed by a bicep tendinitis and right shoulder strain that shut him down for the remainder of the season.

He also went under the knife to remove a bone spur from his pitching elbow.


Outlook –

If it wasn’t for the fact that he seems to always be injured, Fulmer would easily be in my Top 15 list of Mets prospects. I’ve seen him pitch a number of times and he has major league talent.

The Mets need to take him out of future rotations and turn this kid into a reliever and, in 2015, limit him to around 30 innings at the AA level. He’s only going to be 22 next season and he lines up perfectly as a member of the Mets pen.

There is a tremendous amount of talent here but the Mets need to realize that Fulmer is probably best suited in 2015 (at least the early months) for the St. Lucie pen. He can rise to Binghamton from there.

I don't see him being trade bait like Fuller. His injury history probably cost him that option.

The Morning Report – 1-4 – 2015 Goals

Happy New Year, everyone.

Many of the beat writer and bloggers are putting together articles on what the Mets need to do in 2015 to, at least, make it to the playoffs. It’s embarrassing, but that seems to be the extent of what our goals should be this year.

I think the Mets can get there, but it’s going to have to take some important changes within the makeup of this team and how they both operate and play the game.

Some thoughts and goals:

Win The Majority of Your Division Games

The lion share of games played come against teams in the NL East (Philadelphia, Atlanta, Washington, and Miami). You can’t even get to .500 unless you get the job done here.

Stop Being Embarrassed By Washington

You can’t lose almost every game you play to the team you’re trying to catch in your own division. At best, you have to walk away here with 50% of the games in your win column.

Play to Your Strength - Pitching  

Everybody in baseball know that the Mets are going to deliver quality starters from one to five… and frankly, the Mets shouldn’t rush to get rid of the next two starters that didn’t make the opening day rotation. Most of your games are going to won by quality starts, decent relief, and timely hitting. That’s the team you root for. My thoughts on the seven starters lead to the next area.

Have A Plan For When The Injuries Come

Let’s not be naive. There will be Mets injuries. And, there’s a good chance they will come from the same position they have in the past, starting pitching. That sixth and seventh starter (right now) on opening day project to be Rafael Montero and Dillon Gee and the team will still have to make room for Noah Syndergaard sometime later on this year. These are very positive problems and, with a little creativity, can produce a minimum of seven of your pitchers on your 25-man, all year.

Manage Matt Harvey Effectively

Harvey is a special guy. He’s capable of producing 15 wins even on a limited inning schedule. There’s been enough time and enough written about what he needs to do this year and it seems even he has bought into the plan that is better for his career. It doesn’t matter in 2015 if Harvey will stay a Met down the road. What matters first is he sets the table for the next four Mets starters. This rotation has the potential to never let their opponent come up for air, and this team will stall quickly without him at the helm of the ship.

Give David Wright Some Room To Bounce Back

David Wright is as special to this team in 2015 as Harvey is. He’s the Captain and the team just can’t get this job done without him being productive. Last year, he went 535-AB, .269/.320/.374/694, 8-HR, 63-RBI which was the lowest home run total in his major league career. Still, some people in baseball would kill for this stat line. I don’t think we will ever see again the 25+ home run/100+ RBI seasons he put together from 2005-2010, but he can do better than he did last season. He has to produce 15-HR/75-RBI, and probably with the new home field dimensions, could push that to 20 home runs. Start him off slowly in camp. Bury him deep inside the 2-7 slots in the lineup. You don’t have to keep this guy batting third out of some loyalty to him. He would be much more effective for the team in the 5 or 6 slot. But lastly, keep him healthy.

Build A Feared 2-7 Lineup 

Juan Lagares will probably hit first, followed by Daniel Murphy. Then, you have to bat, in whatever particular order you work out, Michael Cuddyer, Lucas Duda, David Wright, Curtis Granderson, and Travis d’Arnaud. Six of these guys have the potential to hit 20 home runs each. It’s not Murder’s Row, but opponent pitching is going to have to find a couple of these guys to pitch to and not try and work around. You will win more baseball games with six 20+ home run hitters.

Make The Bullpen Electric

Come up with some nasty name here. Let these guys pound their chest and put fear into their opponents before they even throw a single pitch. This kind of rotation talent, followed by this kind of relief velocity, will win you more games.

Get Out Of The Gate Early

The 2015 Mets just can’t afford to start this season off going in the wrong direction. The fans will turn on them, the beat press will rip Terry Collins apart, and, once again, the season could be over at the all-star break. This is going to take pinpoint direction by TC. Sure, you can lose two games in a row. Even three, but never, never, never four.

Win The Series

I’ve said this for years… you win every series, you win your league by 10+ games. A series win is your mentality in this game and a series tie (if you are playing four games) is a ‘push’ and is to be tolerated at best. You’re not going to win every series, but this always should be your goal.

We need Granderson, d’Arnaud, Flores, Cuddyer and Duda to have a great season 

(pick two) 

I’m not getting greedy here. If the pitching goes well, and Wright returns to form, I just need two more of these guys to turn out a 25-30 home run, 75-90 runs batted in season. The others can hit .230 if they’d like. Murphy is going to hit .280 and Lagares probably will match him. This will create runners on base for the 3-7 hitters to get these guys home. My starters will average under three runs per seven innings thrown and my pen will shut down the opponent 90% of the time. This, my friends, is a playoff team.

2015 Prospect List - #30 – RHSP Logan Taylor

My rankings is solely subjective and based on nothing more than what is in my head at time I’m writing this. I’ve followed the Mets minor league players for many years and I feel I can recognize talent at various levels of their development. What I have failed at is how to determine when this talent seems to diminish. It’s amazing how many first round picks never make it in this game. 

I’m old school, so you won’t seem much SABR-discussion here, I do research and, when I find a good quote or two, I’ll add them to my analysis, but, like I said in the beginning of this post, most of this us subjective.

Let’s get started.

# 30  –

RHSP Logan Taylor -  23-years old – R/R – 11^th round draft pick in 2012

                                    Sophomore – Eastern Oklahoma State College – 6-5, 230

                                    2012 – Brooklyn – 13-G, 0.93, 0.67, 19.1-IP, 19-K

                                    2013 – Savannah – 7-ST, 2.67, 1.22, 30.1-IP, 35-K

                                    2014 – GCL – 3-ST, 1.13, 1.00, 16-IP, 16-K

                                                Savannah – 8-ST, 2.77, 1.13, 48.2-IP, 39-K

Taylor was ranked by Baseball America as the 312^th player overall eligible for the draft, which translated as a 10^th round pick. He had an incredible stat line in his last year of college ball: 83-IP, 120-K, 43-BB, 1.84, 1.07.

He came out of high school with an 88-90 fastball, with a good downward angle. He’s now self-reports that he throws a low-to-mid 90s fastball, upper 70s-low 80s curve, and changeup in the low 80s. He also relies heavily on his cutter.

Was ranked 3^rd in the nation for strikeouts for a JUCO pitcher.

Taylor was a quick sign with the Mets and went immediately to the Brooklyn 2012 pen due to the excess amount of starters on the team (Gabriel Ynoa, Luis Mateo, Hansel Robles, Luis Cessa, Rainy Lara, Julian Hilario). He absolutely dominated there though he only pitched in 13 games.

Taylor got back to being a starter in 2013 with Savannah, but finished the season on injured reserve with a serious nagging injuries. Scouts had warned team early on that his stress filled delivery would get the best of him some day.

Same thing is 2014… great results but only 11 starts in the season.

Projection – Taylor will pitch 2015 as a 24-year old so there really isn’t much time left for him to develop. He has a 3-year minor league ERA/WHIP of 2.21/1.06, but he’s only pitched in 31-games, 18-starts.

The Mets need to push him (at least) to St. Lucie, where he would be if he didn’t have any DL stints last season. I actually would go further and start him with Binghamton, where guys like Cessa and Mateo are on paper to pitch.

The Mets have a glut of talented mid-range pitching prospects and they need to separate the good ones from the great ones.  

Like many of the Mets mid-ranged pitching prospects in this age range, he may find quickly that hos baseball future will be on another team.

Reese Kaplan - Working the Clutch

Recently I got into a somewhat animated conversation with some fellow fans over the controversial subject of clutch hitting.  It’s detractors are many and for some valid reasons, too. 

For example, supposed Player A comes to bat with a 4-5 day during which he lines four solid bases-empty hits and the one time someone is on base in front of him he drives the ball to the wall where it is caught. 

In Player B’s 1^st AB he hits a dribbler up the middle that the 2^nd baseman bobbles and he winds up safe. The official scorer rules it a hit and with the runner on third in motion on contact it happens to drive in a run.   In Player B’s next four times up, he takes the Golden Sombrero, helping the opposing pitchers increase their K totals.

Now to the clutch-hitting advocates, Player B is more valuable to the team than is Player A because he happened to drive in a run on a lucky bounce, a defensive miscue and by luck of the draw had a runner on third when it happened.  To the people on the other side of the fence, Player A is more valuable because he had four hits and drove the ball hard the one time he had a man on base but it happened to get caught on the warning track.  The truth, as often is the case, probably resides somewhere between these opposite ends of the spectrum. 

Since the hitter cannot control how many runners are on base when he strides to the batter’s box, nor whether or not the baserunner(s) is in scoring position, looking at RBIs doesn’t necessarily seem to be a good way to quantify clutch hitting.  Batting average that spikes noticeably in that situation, however, might have some validity, as you could conclude that the player bears down more when the game is on the line. 

Towards that end I thought it would be fun to take a look at how various Mets hitters did in the ultimate high pressure situation – runners in scoring position with 2 men out – and see who fared as the most clutch batters you’d like to have in that particular situation.  While some names are expected, there did turn out to be some surprises, too.  For purposes of this exercise I arbitrarily chose 10 ABs as the minimum number of plate appearances so as to exclude the occasional pinch hitter or the relief pitcher who bats 1.000 for the season in his only clutch appearance (a hat tip to Jeurys Familia):

Matt den Dekker

While he was a latecomer to steady play in the Mets lineup, the slick fielding den Dekker managed to ring up 15 such ABs and hit .333 with a .467 Slugging Percentage and an .800 OPS. 

Lucas Duda

Not surprisingly, the Mets leader in HRs and RBIs came up big in these pressure situations.  He hit .318 but what really popped out was his .614 Slugging Percentage and 1.145 OPS.  That looks like the guy you really want up there when a run is needed.

Ruben Tejada

Yes, the man I deride with the nickname Honus, he of the 2013/2014 combined average of just .223, came up big in these pressure situations.  He posted a .304/.391/.858 slash line.  Way to go, little guy!

Juan Lagares

The man known more for his glove and his arm than for his bat, Juan Lagares nonetheless performed above his season norm with a .298/.383/.710.  Perhaps it bodes well for his continued offensive development.

Bobby Abreu

Though his career was long and impressive, Bobby Abreu’s short stint as a Met was anything but.  Still, in this ultimate clutch situation he responded with a .294/.353/.721.  The perception was he did better as a starter than as a pinch hitter, but maybe his specialization was even narrower – only when an RBI was needed. 

The rest of the Mets lineup performed at or below their seasonal averages in these situations.  The bench quartet of Anthony Recker, Eric Young, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Eric Campbell all performed well below the Mendoza line.  Joining them was last year’s starting right fielder and starter in the Queens outfield for the next three years, Curtis Granderson.   His .167/.236/.486 suggests he is the last regular from the lineup you’d want to see at the plate when a run is needed most.

  

So what do you think of the whole concept of clutch hitting?  How would you measure it if you feel it’s worth tracking at all?

The Morning Report – 1-3 – Lucas Duda, Courtney Hawkins, Michael Gettys, Carlos Alvarez, Wilmer Flores

Anthony DiComo[i] wrote his ’10 Questions’ the Mets have to answer in 2015. Or some reason, everyone ties these kind of articles/posts to the first of the year. I probably will do one too, but mine will be closer to opening day.

One of his questions was:

Is Lucas Duda for real? - Sandy Alderson made the right choice when he kept Duda around last summer, trading Ike Davis to the Pirates. Now, Duda must prove that the 30 home runs he hit last year was not a fluke. Particularly if Granderson and Wright continue to struggle, the Mets will need Duda to serve as a consistent power source in the middle of their lineup. He is confident and ready, fresh off an All-Star tour of Japan. But pitchers will be keying on Duda this summer, forcing him to adapt.

Mack – Yes, Duda will have to learn to adapt, but I don’t think the Mets are going to give him much opportunity against right handed pitching. Past that, he needs to keep the sweet swing he has contained and just try to guess corrently whether it’s a curve or a fast ball. His natural power alone,  plus 350-400 at bats, will get him to 30 home runs again .

My man Courtney[ii]…

. About 16 months ago, I wrote this 3,000-word-plus diatribe about Courtney Hawkins, attempting to make sense of how a 2012 mid-first-round pick could collapse from a .284/.324/.480 line in his post-draft 2012 season (complete with reaching High-A at age 18) to an abysmal .178/.249/.384 mark in 2013 (complete with ghastly 37.6% strikeout rate).

For some, those numbers were grounds for Hawkins’ dismissal as a prospect; for others, his youth and level made that immediate, severe pessimism seem a bit over-the-top and premature; he did manage to slug nineteen homers in 103 games in the midst of all that whiffing, at least. The thought of this latter group was that Hawkins would repeat High-A in 2014 as a 20-year-old and that the tools that made him a first-round pick would again surface as he grew into the level.

 Michael Gettys[iii], CF Video: Gettys is one of the most electrifying prospects in the minors. He has plus plus bat speed, running speed and arm strength to go with above average raw power and defensive ability; he has also hit 95 mph with an above average curveball on the mound. Gettys was very easy to identify as a top prep prospect but he slipped to the 2nd round last summer because of his struggles with the bat. The bat speed gives him big margin for error, but Gettys has had trouble identifying spin at times, though it appears to be influenced by him pressing and guessing from draft year pressure, rather than a struggle with a true vision/identification issue.

Mack – Hawkins and Gettys were just two of the many players I loved at various draft days. I’m linking to these articles since we once again are a little short on Mets suff today.

Mack’s Mets regulars will be familiar with my almost obsession with Hawkins up to the 2012 draft. I actually got an email from Courtney the week before, blasting me, for what he was told, negative comments I was saying about him on the blog. He said he had receieved that information, on Twitter, from other Mets bloggers. We cleared that up.

Gettys was the 51^st overall pick in the 2014 draft and may turn out to be the steal of the day. He hit .310 in rookie ball last year, in 213 at-bats, as an 18-year old.

A great story[iv] –

Dominican Republic — Much has changed for the player who helped transform the way baseball teams operate in this country. Carlos Alvarez is 29 and maybe 30 pounds heavier than his early years as a top Washington Nationals prospect. He is no longer in the organization whose fate he changed when his false identity and true age were discovered in 2009.

Alvarez — known then as Esmailyn “Smiley” Gonzalez — still believes he has a future in baseball but it isn’t promising. He spent this past year playing for the Freseros de San Quintin in the Liga Norte de Mexico, a lower-level professional league, before returning to his native Dominican Republic to play winter baseball for the Tigres del Licey.

Our daily Flores story –

I think Wilmer Flores can provide value beyond Matt Carpenter next year contingent on his BABIP rebounding or if we are looking beyond runs produced (R+RBI-HR). Flores makes a little less contact, but has much more power potential. If we double Carpenter’s 2012 season, he basically averaged 11 homers and 3 stolen bases with a .305 batting average with an inflated .353 BABIP and .166 ISO for 2012 and 2013. Last year, Carpenter regressed back to a .318 BABIP and .103 ISO.

Steamer projects Flores for a .145 ISO and .270 BABIP. I [v]will not call this Flores’ floor, but I will say that he has a much higher ceiling based on his BABIP potential. While he lacks speed (like Carpenter), a BABIP closer to his minor league average of .315 would mean a batting average closer to .275. While defensive shifts could limit his full BABIP potential, his batted ball spray looks healthy enough, and he already has a 20+% line drive rate in the majors.-

(Mets trade P Noah Syndergaard, C Kevin Plawecki, P Gabriel Ynoa, and 1B Jayce Boyd to Colorado for SS Troy Tulowitzki) -  

---

[i] http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/104296694/goals-for-2015-bring-10-questions-for-mets

[ii] http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/courtney-hawkins-are-2014s-improvements-enough/

[iii] http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-san-diego-padres/

[iv] http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/former-nats-prospect-whose-deception-brought-down-the-teams-dominican-operation-is-still-chasing-his-dream/2015/01/01/655c19a4-9069-11e4-a412-4b735edc7175_story.html

[v] http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/wilmer-flores-just-you-wait/

Ernest Dove - The Curious Case of Mets Shortstop Prospect Wilfredo Tovar.

  Hey, its a new year.  But, hey, it's still only January, so we are still stuck in baseball offseason.  And, since we have enjoyed so much talking about shortstop, why not talk about the young man that nobody is talking about.  One Wilfredo Tovar.
  For the past couple of seasons, the Mets and their fans have struggled through Tejada hitting .200 and Wilmer apparently still being Wilmer the 'non' shortstop option at shortstop. And, with Mack's Mets favorite Matt Reynolds still being stuck in the drawer of team controlled-not 40 man needed-maybe next year land, along with Gavin 'don't call me a bust' Cecchini still not being old enough or ready enough to make that picture clear, we remain without any other options. So, the Mets have been linked to everybody under the sun who has every played the position in their career (yeah I read a quick blurb about Ben Zobrist too).
  Meanwhile, there apparently remains the forgotten, 23 year old 'prospect' in the Mets organization who has spent these same past couple of seasons locked onto the teams 40 man roster.  However, since 2012, we seemingly have no idea what is going on with Mr. Tovar. I used his random photo of the young man mainly because that's exactly where he's pretty much been since 2012...... Binghamton.
  He's had a couple September call ups the past two years (yeah, again, dude's been on the 40 man roster this whole time).  Can't really tell much from 22 plate appearances, unless you consider only 3 Ks to be a cool side-note or something.
  Otherwise, he's pretty much the guy toiling his craft down in the AA ball level.  He's seemingly been passed over for two years while the Mets see what they have in Matt Reynolds, and also try to reinvent good old Wilmer back into the position in both the AAA and eventually the major league level.
  Then, as we entered into the 2014 offseason, all we could talk about was shortstop, especially after the Cuddyer signing and the bring'em-all-in approach to lefty reliever competition. Yet, somewhere along the way, Wilmer remained on the team, with random nonchalant quotes from front office about basically not seeing it as a total disaster with him giving it a shot again. And, the Mets apparently showed complete willingness to hold onto Tejada, despite all the (minor) drama for 2 years about work ethic, strive for greatness, etc. etc. in his approach to the game.
  Sooooooo uhhhhhh what's up with Wilfredo?  He's pretty much coming off his best statistical season of his minor league career (which was shortened due to injuries). His BA, OBP, SLG and OPS were all higher then his career averages in his overall 6 year minor league career. However, again, we are talking about a young man who keeps playing at the same AA level, so we can obviously argue that it helped.
  So, throwing out those numbers, what do we have?  An above average defensive SHORTSTOP who doesn't strike a lot, is young, and isn't eligible for free agency until the next decade.  Yet, here we are in January 2015 still ending up at this point scraping the bottom of the barrel in the free agency and trade market (and even a recent DFA Dodgers shortstop whose known for being all glove, no bat and owed like $20mil anyway).
  Am I missing something?  I'm no talent evaluator.  I know pretty much nothing about Tovar. Never seen em take an at bat other then in random September games when I'm already angry about another losing season and not paying him enough attention. But yet he remains on the 40 man roster.  Sure, organizations need players at every position, blah blah blah.  But we are talking about an organization that filled its minor league rosters with guys as old as 32 years old at their AA level teams last year, so there should be no fear of needing Tovar at any team on any of the lower level rosters.
  As we enter into 2015, I believe its finally come to where we can't keep shoving Wilmer back in AAA, so at this point the only shortstop who would take away at bats from Tovar in Vegas isssssss wait for it........ good old Matt Reynolds, whom the Mets can simply leave there until September, get a looksy, and then figure out if they want him on the 40 man then. 
  So, what to do with Mr. Wilfredo Tovar?  I assume he will certainly not embarrass himself in the field if put there on the Mets come April 2015.  But the organization seems content to go with Wilmer and Tejada.  Or field offers in which they would probably end up shifting Wilmer around, or maybe just maybe finally giving Tejada is walking papers (I actually like Tejada, but the organization has taken their stand with him by letting out these strange public remarks about work ethic, etc).
  What happens now?  He's still only 23 years old, so I assume they can shove him back at AA ball, where he can man short, or I guess play some more 2B if that Cecchini kid gets his chance at the make or break level.  But, all in all, something should be done here. I mean, we've got Mets brass, writers, bloggers and fans clamoring for old, unproven, becoming washed up, and/or coming off injury type guys to fill a position in which the player in said position could easily (and stereotypically) bat 8th anyway.
  Well here we go, let's try and light up the comment score board for me with this one.  What the heck are we doing here?

Majoring on the Minors - Top 30 Prospects - Michael Conforto - Vol 2: Tom Brennan

MAJORING ON THE MINORS – MY TOP 30 PROSPECTS: VOL. 2 – Tom Brennan

As noted in my first “Top Prospects” article, I am doing it a bit differently than other Prospect Prognosticators. Mine are in 2 groups:

·       A top 20 list of guys who are closing in on the big leagues.  Guys who could help us in the near future or be trade bait.

·       A top 10 list of lower minors guys who likely won’t show up until 2017 or later.

In my top 10 list of down-the-road Mets prospects, there are those guys I really think at least 5 could be impact major leaguers.  Months ago, I referred to these lower minors guys as Guppies, furiously swimming upstream towards that big pond in Flushing, Queens, which has been more of a swamp in recent years.

My Top 5 from that group are my GUPPY SQUADRON LEADERS. 

For this group, I started with my #1 guy and go to #10. 

In my first article, Vol. 1, I picked Marcos Molina as my # 1 Guppy Squadron Leader # 1.  Who is # 2?

MICHAEL CONFORTO

I applauded the choice of Mr. Conforto in the first round of the June 2014 draft.  I badly wanted a hitter, because the Mets' record of drafting dynamic hitters in their history has been...well, less than dynamic.  And far too many Mets teams (some recent) have stunk up the joint offensively.  And because the Mets minor league system has arguably been the most flush with pitchers of any franchise in baseball, a hitter made tons of sense. 

Nonetheless, I recently read that Aaron Nola, the 2014 draft's #7 pick, might be in the Phil's rotation for most of 2015.  At the end of the 2013 season, with the jam up of teams jockeying for draft slots, I advocated for the Mets to compete in game # 162 with just its rookies, no veterans, to maximize the odds of losing that last game. 

Had they lost that one, the Mets get the 7th slot, and perhaps pick Aaron Nola.  While the Mets system is flush with pitchers, another top line starter like Nola would have made trading off stud prospect pitching for a top notch, ready to go offensive stud far less guilt-panged. 

But enough what ifs.  We got the 6 ’1”, 210 lefty slugger Conforto, who still appears to be an excellent pick.  I see in him a solid outfielder who should hit for average, display moderate power, and be valuable in terms of run production.   Solid defensively too, even if he is not a speed burner. 

In the seasons ahead, based on his .331/.403/.448 output in Brooklyn, I foresee him bypassing Savannah and starting out in St Lucie in 2015, having just turned 22.  

Conforto will in my opinion split 2015 between Lucie and Bingo and hit .300 with 30 doubles and 20 homers. 

·       On to 2016, I can see an early start in AA and most of the season in AAA putting up similar #'s. 

·       Then a late season call up to the Mets. Where he will: 

·       Help us win the 2016 pennant with a key hit or 2.  And be the:

·       Opening day left fielder in 2017. 

Nice to think about....a guy who might hit .300 with 30 doubles and 20-25 dingers yearly for the Good Fellas in Queens.

That makes him my Guppy Squad Commander #2.  Next article: top lower minor prospect #3.

The Morning Report – 1-2 – Ryan Jackson,Ben Zobrist, Brad Miller, Sean Gilmartin, 2006 Prospects

Why does the baseball world seem to hate SS Ryan Jackson.

First, the 26-year old is traded last year from his original team (St. Louis) to San Diego. Now, so far this season he's went to the Dodgers, then the Royals and now DFA'd again.

That's what, four teams in one season and one off-season?

He was injured and on the DL for most of last season, but hit .278, for AAA-Memphis in 2013 (442 at-bats).




2B-SS-OF Ben Zobrist is on the trade blocks. He has one-year and $7.5mil left on his contract and could easily be the guy that Sandy Alderson has been waiting out for this off-season (I make no recommendation here… lately my boat’s been taking on too much water and I just throw these names out there for of you to discuss. I back them with cola, hard stats that I can’t fuck up) Scout rate his shortstop, second base, and corner defense somewhere from “adequate to exceptional” which should better than anything the 2015 Mets are throwing out there on either middle infield positions..

Zobrish is 33-years old and hit .272/.353/.395/748 for Tampa Bay last year in 570-at bats. Played all his ealy career at short and change over to second in 2009.

No big injuries to report here…

(Mack – one thing to remember here… Alderson is not too keen on trading for ballplayers that only have one year left on the books)

… Comment From Mike - Mets SS: Drew, Flores, Tejada or someone else? Do you think they could match up for Zobrist and play him at SS and shift him all over the place?

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Mets would definitely match up well for Zobrist, but I don’t think they’re interested in paying what it would cost to have Zobrist for one year. They’re trying to be in this for longer. Right now I’m assuming it’s Flores. Tulowitzki is the dream, but I just can’t see a trade getting agreed to before he gets back on a field and proves himself healthy

The trade earlier this week by Seattle that brought outfielder Seth Smith to their team sort of eliminates their previous plans to convert SS Brad Smith to a platooned outfielder which would allow them to also keep SS Chris Taylor in the lineup. Now, these plans seem out the door and Seattle is back to two starting shortstops for one position.

Comment From Howard - Many of my fellow Mets fans are optimistic of a playoff berth in 2015. I think they are insane and that best case, they’re an 84-win non playoff team. Who’s right?

Jeff Sullivan: Well, actual best case, the Mets stay healthy and add Troy Tulowitzki and they hold pretty close to the Nationals. I don’t think the Mets are a playoff team right now, but they’re close enough to the fourth and fifth-best teams in the NL that you might as well dream, right? There’s plenty of talent there…

What’s a Morning Report without a Tulo-mention?

Baseball America[i] -

The Mets have leaned heavily on their lefthanded relievers in recent years, overusing Pedro Feliciano, Tim Byrdak and then Scott Rice. So general manager Sandy Alderson is trying to collect spring-training options in order to find a complement to southpaw Josh Edgin for the 2015 bullpen. That includes Sean Gilmartin, the 28th overall pick in the 2011 draft by the Atlanta Braves out of Florida State. Gilmartin, who had been traded to the Minnesota Twins last offseason for Ryan Doumit, was selected by the Mets in the major league phase of the Rule 5 draft on Dec. 11 in San Diego, as the winter meetings concluded…

My 2006 pitching prospect post was not designed to be any kind of Debbie Downer. If it made anyone look like an amateur, it would be me.

We’re way ahead of that curve already. Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Jacob deGrom are not trying to work their way into the starting rotation. Hell, your SP3 is Rookie of the Year. You simply can’t do better than that.

Back then, I didn’t have much to ‘work with’ so I tried to make these guys sound as good as I could. I no longer have to do that. All we have to do is figure out who will start (Niese, Gee, Colon) before the next wave hits around June (Syndergaard, Matz).

I have been a proponent of Mets pitching for so long and I can’t tell you how much fun I’m going to have with this staff beginning next season.

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(Mets trade P Noah Syndergaard, C Kevin Plawecki, P Gabriel Ynoa, and 1B Jayce Boyd to Colorado for SS Troy Tulowitzki) -  

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[i] http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/gilmartin-find-part-mets-pen/

Happy New Year's Day

Mack's Mets will be closed today.