2024 Prospect - LHP - Hunter Elliott

 

Hunter Elliott 

LHP          Ole Miss         @elliotthunter10 

2022 Ole Miss stat line - 20-G, 12-ST, 5-3, 2.70, 80-IP, 102-K 

 

11-2-22 - 2024 MLB DRAFT - TOP 50 COLLEGE PROSPECTS 

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/1/15/2023-mlb-draft-prospects-fn7a2-afbw9?s=03  

25 LHP

Hunter Elliott

Ole Miss

Elliott is another crafty lefty with four usable pitches and a ton of deceptive qualities. Elliott can flirt with the low-90s, usually settling in a tick under that, but the heat plays up a bit with solid late hop from a tough angle. Elliott's best secondary is a legitimate double-plus changeup with immense fading action, falling off the table. 

It's been murder on righty bats. He's got a big, slurvy breaking ball that he uses against lefties, as well as a fringier slider that can tunnel off the fastball at its best. Elliott projects a back of the rotation southpaw unless the fastball ticks up a notch.

UPDATED RESEARCH - 2023 Draft Prospect - RHP - Garrett Baumann

 

Garrett Baumann

 

RHP        Hagerty HS  (FL)

 

10-19-22 - https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/1/15/2023-mlb-draft-prospects-fx4td?s=03 - 

66 RHP

Garrett Baumann

Hagerty HS

Baumann is a huge, imposing righty with a darting, sinking fastball into the mid-90s, up to 97 that he works to both sides of the plate. Baumann offers and slider, curveball and changeup, all of which flash average or better, the changeup being his best weapon presently. 

It's pretty impressive body control and athleticism from a kid his size with some throwing Andrew Painter comparisons on him. Baumann will need to continue to show he can consistently throw strikes, as well as develop a better breaking ball as he develops and moves up the ladder.

 

7-26-22 - 2023 MLB DRAFT - TOP 100 HIGH SCHOOL PROSPECTS - 

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/1/15/2023-mlb-draft-prospects-38awn  

45 RHP

Garrett Baumann

Hagerty HS, Hagerty, FL

Baumann is a huge, imposing righty with a darting fastball into the mid-90s that he works to both sides of the plate. Baumann offers and slider, curveball and changeup, all of which flash average or better. 

It's pretty impressive body control and athleticism from a kid his size with some throwing Andrew Painter comparisons on him. Baumann will need to continue to show he can consistently throw strikes as he develops and moves up the ladder.

 All the 2023 Draft Prospects in the Mack’s Mets database can be viewed by going to www.macksmets.blogspot.com and clicking on 2023 DRAFT PROSPECT DATABASE found on the top, left of the front page of the site.

Tom Brennan - Fangraphs Mets Bullpen Projections May Surprise You

THE PEN CAN BE MIGHTIER THAN THE SWORD!

Mets' Bullpen? 

It seems very depleted.  

But...is it, actually?

First and foremost, what have we already got?  

What's on the clubhouse shelves right now?

Let's look at Fangraphs, who projects what 2023 could look like for guys on the roster.

A) IN-HOUSE:

Edwin Diaz - 64 IP, 38.9% K rate, 8.6% BB rate, 2.45 ERA.

Drew Smith - 63 IP, 25.1% K rate, 8.8% BB rate, 3.91 ERA.

Stephen Nogosek - 60  IP, 23.4% K rate, 8.6% BB rate, 4.12 ERA.

B) Rookies and Recent Adds:

Bryce Montes de Oca - Fangraphs appears to foresee big things from Bryce in 2023.  As in 62 games, 62 innings, 28.4% K rate, 12.3% BB rate, and a 3.59 ERA.  Listed as a 70 FB, 60 slider, and just 35 Command.

Eric Orze - MiLB.com

Eric Orze: 36 IP, 23.9% K rate, 8.3% BB rate, 3.86 ERA.  Rated at a max of 50 FB, 50 slider, a strong 60 splitter, 55 command. In the high minors in 2022, 4-3, 4.83 ERA, 69 Ks in 50 IP, including a bad April.

Stephen Ridings, picked up by the Mets?  46 IP, 27.3% K rate, 8.4% BB rate, 3.43 ERA.  70 FB, 55 slider, 45 command. Similar size and velocity to de Oca.

William Woods: Projection: 42 IP, 22.4% K rate, 9.7% BB rate, 4.18 ERA. Projected maxes: FB 60, slider 55, Change up 40, Command 40.

Denyi Reyes: Projection: 43 IP, 18.6% K rate, 5.8% BB rate, 4.43 ERA. 

Projected Reyes maxes: FB 50, slider 50, Change up 50, Command 60, but measured currently as about 8 points on average below that, so Reyes seems to have room to improve.

Eliezer Hernandez: Projected 133 IP, 23.5% K rate, 6.9% BB rate, 4.39 ERA, 60 FB, 50 slider, 50 change up, 55 command max.  Trevor Williams' replacement?

Jeff Brigham: Projected: 56 gms, 56 IP, 26.4% K, 9.4% BB, 4.00 ERA

If it played out like that for the 7 hurlers above, not so bad - but the last 7 new, unproven guys above, to me, equal too many unknowns for my comfort zone.  

Interestingly, the forgotten man, Joey Lucchesi, in Fangraphs is projected at 103 innings, 6-6, 4.23 ERA split between spot starts and relief which, if he can do that much, wouldn't be bad.

Solution?

Bring back “Adam Ant” Ottavino and possibly add lefty Andrew Chafin, then go from there.  

Do I hear an Amen, brother? 

In fact, I asked my brother Steve - besides the above 10 listed pen arms, plus Joey, he wants FIVE more bullpen arms added, including Adam and Andrew.  He's taking no chances.  

He's seen, as I have, that too many Mets innings each year are pitched by low-talent bottom feeders, less so in 2022 than in recent years. And in many seasons, a crappy pen has been a playoff-preventing phenomenon. 

101 wins was nice. Let's not regress. Killer pen, please. Not a crappy one.

The Wilpons used to cross their fingers - Steve Cohen needs to not go there. Buy a bushel of pens.

Reese Kaplan -- Using Those Math Class Skills After All

Let's try an experiment right now thinking about the process of running a baseball organization rather than the actual men who take the field and play the game.  

It's much easier for most of us to envision what a rotation containing Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom would be like, or how Brandon Nimmo or his unnamed replacement would better help win ballgames.  What's much less analyzed and evaluated are the duties of the business folks who prepare the club for its upcoming roster construction.

We've all grown weary of the words "analytics", "metrics" and "benchmarks."  We all don't generate nearly as much interest hearing the Mets have expanded their numerical analysis staff as we would about the up and coming prospect who just bashed his way into the record books.  

The thing is that for all that scouts and other baseball professionals do in evaluating both younger talent and established veterans, there always was a whole lot of luck and non-scientific variables involved in how successful or not that person will be.

Not too many of us think about the math that's overtaken the game.  Yes, we hear terms that weren't in the baseball lexicon of our youth like spin rate, launch angle, WHIP, OPS, WAR and batted ball exit velocity.  

As Little Leaguers we were more concerned with taking pitches that weren't in the strike zone, hitting the ball "where they ain't" fooling the baserunners with our defensive acting skills and making the thrown baseball accurate regardless of whether it is from a fielder or a pitcher.  

When I was a child I envisioned some of my own metrics for the game that caused my fellow schoolchildren to laugh at my pseudo intellect and my obsession with the game itself.  

I remember arguing vividly about the level of pitcher Tom Seaver was by factoring in things that others had never before considered such as the number of runs scored when he pitched, the percentage of games his team won with and without him on the mound, the ballpark playing characteristics that made it easier to pitch in New York than it was in more extreme architecture like Fenway or Wrigley, and how all of these variables could be put into new stats that could help ascertain really who was the best of the best.  

Fast forward many years to the Oakland A's and how in the silly dramatization of the pivotal book Moneyball in which performance analytics were introduced to folks outside of the Major Leagues for likely the very first time.  

If you didn't read the book but did partake in the film, remember when Jonah Hill as Peter Brand teamed up with Brad Pitt as Billy Beane to discuss things like OBP as pivotal to creating the opportunity for runs to score.  

Up until then it was more looking at pure statistical totals for things like RBIs rather than how the batters actually got the opportunity to drive runs home.  

Now fast forward 20 years past that semi-fictitious analysis of the 2002 season (and please forget the Art Howe managerial stint that was later inflicted upon the Mets).  Instead, think about the lesser headlines about how the Mets are actively looking to improve the depth and breadth of their analytical personnel to help the club make more well informed decisions on personnel who will help the team win more frequently.  

While this analysis is certainly a valid and intellectually relevant way of contributing to the team's record in the standings, it's never 100% perfect.  Obviously there were hidden gem numbers behind the acquisitions for a reasonable price of Daniel Vogelbach and for an unreasonable one to bring in Darrin Ruf.  On paper they may have seemed like an aggregate platoon monster designated hitter, but the reality didn't work out as envisioned.  

So instead of abandoning this approach due to unforeseen performance problems, the front office doubled down to make this team and its ability to apply analytical theory greater and more proficient.  

Now no one came here to read about the factorials, standard deviations nor trends found by doing this seemingly dry poring over of the various available data, yet how do any other types of large businesses succeed in what they do when it takes more than low prices, convenient packaging or a clever TV commercial to entice customers to part with their money?  

The whole concept of artificial intelligence is often rooted in making decisions based upon mathematically valid equations rather than relying solely on a gut feeling for doing something.  

So, going into the next round of winter meetings, this exercise in baseball as a business is not just about figuring out who will sell more jerseys if signed, what players to trade who don't meet the new fangled performance metrics, and how to best utilize the coaching staff to help not just today but also for the future.  

It's less about finding the next Mike Trout as it is the supporting pieces around him that need to make it possible for the superstar to succeed.  

Notice that there are players in the Mets history who struggled in year one in uniform like Francisco Lindor, Carlos Beltran and others, but their talent helped them to adapt and persevere.  

The behind-the-scenes gurus are the ones trying to make that effort more plausible and faster by figuring out what it is that's needed for success on the field.  And that is going to take a lot more effort that choosing between an oft-injured player's demand for a multi-million dollar long term deal.  

2024 Prospect - RHP - Gage Ziehl

Gage Ziehl

RHP        Miami        @gage_z13      

2022 Miami stat line - 30-Apps, 2-2, 4.04, 35.2-IP, 52-K

11-2-22 - 2024 MLB DRAFT - TOP 50 COLLEGE PROSPECTS 

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/1/15/2023-mlb-draft-prospects-fn7a2-afbw9?s=03  

24 RHP

Gage Ziehl

Miami

Ziehl is a fastball-slider guy whose stuff has been ticking up since arriving on campus. The fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s, touching 96 with big hop and some armside run. Ziehl mixes in a hellish slider in the mid 80s with massive spin rates and ton of tilt. He'll mix in a changeup, though it lags behind his two primary weapons. Ziehl is a big, barrel-chested hurler whose future role is to-be-determined, but the arm talent is undeniable.

UPDATED RESEARCH - 2023 Draft Prospect - RHP - Christopher Morales

 

Christopher Morales 

RHP          Guaynilla (PR)

 

10-5-22 - Jupiter Uncommitted Gems: Part 2 - https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=21312&s=03 - 

Cristopher Morales, RHP, Guaynilla, P.R.

Class of 2023 | PG Rank: 391

FTB/Philadelphia Phillies ST 

Morales is an arm that schools, as well as pro scouts, will want to lay eyes on when he toes the rubber as the 6-foot-1, 160 pound right-hander proved to be a model of consistency through the summer season. While not physically imposing, Morales comes out attacking hitters with a heater that peak upwards of 93 mph this summer and typically pitches in the 88-91 mph range with a whippy arm action and a repeatable set of mechanics. Over the course of 47 innings this summer Morales struck out 50 to just 13 walks, maintaining a 1.50 ERA over that span and proved his stuff plays regardless the opposition.

 

All the 2023 Draft Prospects in the Mack’s Mets database can be viewed by going to www.macksmets.blogspot.com  and clicking on 2023 DRAFT PROSPECT DATABASE found on the top, left of the front page of the site. 

Mike's Mets - There Are Reasons Beyond Money to Be a New York Met

 

By Mike Steffanos

For years, the Mets had to overpay or settle for lesser free agents. Those days are mercifully over.

As I noted in my previous post, baseball media pundits have shifted from a speculative consensus that Jacob deGrom would sign with another team this winter to a much more optimistic narrative (outside of ESPN) that the New York Mets could actually retain their ace. My personal preference has always been for the Mets to retain one of their all-time great pitchers. Not at all costs, however, but rather after making a proper assessment of Jake's future value. After all, no other team in baseball should have a better idea of where deGrom stands medically and how much it is reasonable to expect from him going forward. As long as another team doesn't go way out on a limb with their offer, I hope the Mets re-sign him.

I understand there is disagreement on this, and I'm not trying to convert those of you who would rather see the club spend owner Steve Cohen's money elsewhere. Wherever you stand on that issue, I think it's pretty amazing how differently the Mets organization is perceived by their own players and those outside the organization. I think this note from Mike Puma's piece in the New York Post last week offers Mets fans a reason to smile whether or not Jacob deGrom is on their wish list:

A source said deGrom places a high value on winning and believes the Mets have reached a place at which they can compete for the World Series regularly. DeGrom has also told teammates past and present — as The Post has reported — that he is happy playing for the Mets.

Think about it. We're almost exactly two years out from Steve Cohen buying the club from Fred and Jeff Wilpon. Had deGrom's opt-out happened when the Wilpons still signed the checks, Jake would not have seen the Mets as a club that would "compete for the World Series regularly." Beyond that, there is a vast difference in the perception of how the organization is run from top to bottom all around baseball.

It feels like a distant memory now, but Steve Cohen took quite a bit of criticism for the rough start to his regime. The club couldn't entice a big name to be their President of Baseball Operations. Then they had to fire GM Jared Porter a month after hiring him. His replacement Zack Scott didn't make it all the way through his first season without being sacked for a bizarre incident after the Mets limped home to a 77-85 record despite a significantly upgraded payroll. As the season was winding down to a disappointing conclusion that September, Mike Puma in the New York Post had a quote from an (of course) unnamed "former MLB executive" that the first year of Cohen owning the team, "the value of the team has gone backward significantly."

The article was full of negative, reactionary quotes from this "former MLB executive," who, if nothing else, provided ample evidence of why his job title was prefaced with the word "former." The tone and quality of his analysis made me wonder if it was someone formerly affiliated with the Mets — perhaps Steve Phillips — or worse, maybe Jeff Wilpon? But I digress...

Things were indeed looking a bit grim as Cohen's regime staggered toward the first anniversary of his purchase. And the idea that the Mets were building something was greatly obscured by the stumbles of an organization still laboring to find its footing. But the following spring, before the 2022 season got underway, it was becoming clear that all the doomsaying and handwringing from the previous year was premature and, frankly, more than a little ridiculous. Putting the worst possible spin on events was an unfortunate holdover from the Wilpon years.

If Fred and Jeff were still running the show, I doubt Jake would even consider staying with the Mets. Nor do I believe Max Scherzer would have signed with the Mets last winter. Whether or not deGrom and Brandon Nimmo join Edwin Díaz back with the Mets next season, it's pretty remarkable that these guys expressed that they would like to be back with the Mets. It wasn't all that long ago that players seemed to be jumping at the chance to jump on the next lifeboat off the foundering ship. I've been a Mets fan for so long, and I'm still not quite used to the idea that MLB players can actually see the Mets as a preferred landing place. I vastly prefer this new reality, however, and hope I get the chance to get used to it.

To finish reading this article on Mike's Mets, please click here.

Tom Brennan - 2013 Mets Quiz Questions!

2013 METS QUIZ QUESTIONS!

I thought I'd do a series of 10 posts, starting this very self-same day, involving quiz questions for different Mets' seasons, arbitrarily starting with 2013, when the Mets went a scintillating and sizzling 74-88 under skipper Terry Collins, and finished a mere 22 games behind Atlanta, and working my way up to 2022.  

It was a race in that 2013 season - until the end of April, perhaps.  Anyway...

Questions at the top, answers below, to give you time to see if you can guess the right answers before you actually read the right answers.  

If you can't guess all 11 answers without peeking, then c'mon now, are you REALLY a Mets fan?

1) Which Mets pitcher won the most games in 2013?

2) Which excellent 2013 pitcher also had a very solid year in 2022?

3) Which hitter led the Mets with a .462 on base %?

4) Which 1st baseman lost his starting job to the mighty tandem of Josh Satin and Lucas Duda?

5) Which SS who'd never make you forget Mr. Lindor played in 95 games in 2013?

6) Why is having a guy named Buck on your team always a good idea?

7) Which excellent current player hit .202 with 5 RBIs in 2013?

8) Which outfield clowns made Andrew Brown (remember him?), who hit .227 with 7 HRs, 24 RBIs in 150 at bats, look like a superstar?

9) Which player showed you can spend 13 years in the minors (including having a 6-26 W/L record in your first 4 minor league seasons) before your MLB rookie debut and have a great year?  And also qualifies in Asia as a key food group?

10) Which acquisition shocked us by playing more games and having more HRs and more RBIs than the Captain?

11) Which closer had a 2.65 ERA and 35 saves?

See Answers Below.

(Keep going, I said BELOW!)

Answers:

1) Dillon "I can't get no respect" Dillon Gee led the staff with 12 wins, as he went 12-11. No one else won 10, although Sean Marcum went 1-10. 

You know your team is in doubly deep doo-doo when one of your pitchers goes 1-10. Gee was a nifty 51-48 in his career as a 21st rounder. Nice.

2) Zack Wheeler was 7-5, 3.42 in 2013.  Still very tough.

3) Zach Lutz had a .462 OBP, although he did not get up very much.  It's just good to have two guys who are named Zack/Zach be the answers to consecutive questions.  Especially if you've ever been to beautiful Zach's Bay.

4) Ike Davis bewildered Mets' fans again by hitting a desultory .205. Ike's YIKES!

5) Omar Quintanilla got up 359 times and hit .222 with 21 RBIs.  You know your team is in deep doo-doo when you get non-offense from a starter like that.

6) Catcher John Buck hit 15 HRs and knocked in 60 in just 368 at bats.  Man, who wouldn't have loved that from the Catchers' Department in 2022?

7) The man too many fans (and the Wilpons) loved to hate, hitter Travis d'Arnaud. He's just been excellent for someone else.  In 1,098 post-Mets at bats, 63 doubles, 50 HRs, 187 RBIs. 

8) Outfielders Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Matt den Dekker, Colin Cowgill, and Rick Ankiel had 280 combined ABs and produced 53 hits (.189).  You know your team is in doubly deep doo-doo when you get non-offense like that.

9) Lefty Scott Rice got in a whopping 73 games as an age 31 rookie and went 4-5, 3.71!!  Never give up!  Condoleeza Rice agreed.

10) Marlon Byrd went a terrific .285/.330/.518 with the Mets that season, with 21 HRs and 71 RBIs in 117 games.  On the other hand, he probably cost them a better draft pick.

11) Trick question - the bullpen closer tandem of LaTroy Hawkins and Bobby Parnell combined to do it.  And Hawkins did that at age 40.

How many of the 11 questions did you get right? 12?

Next article, I move on to 2014 quiz questions.

2024 Prospect - LHP/OF - Jonathan Santucci

 

11-2-22 - 2024 MLB DRAFT - TOP 50 COLLEGE PROSPECTS 

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/1/15/2023-mlb-draft-prospects-fn7a2-afbw9?s=03  

23             LHP/OF

Jonathan Santucci

Duke

Santucci is an impressive two-way player for the Blue Devils with a real shot to stick on the mound or in the outfield. Most scouts, however, like him on the mound. The fastball features good riding shape up to 95, sitting 91-93 later in outings. His slider shows good depth and can be tough for hitters to read off his fastball with late, deep break. The changeup is also promising with fading action away from righty bats, though he's still ironing out feel for the pitch. That said, Santucci has a conviction and willingness to throw the pitch whenever he wants. There's a fringier curveball in there too, but for now he's primarily a three-pitch lefty with more projection ahead of him and a track record of pitching big innings in the ACC.

UPDATED RESEARCH - 2023 Draft Prospect - RHP - Brandon Stone

 

Brandon Stone 

RHP          Shawnee West HS (KS) 

 

11-4-22 - WWBA WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS NOTEBOOK - https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022-wwba-world-championships-notebook-1?s=03 - 

RHP Brandon Stone, Shawnee Mission West (KS), 2023

Performance: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 7 K, 4 BB, 59% Strikes

Commitment: Johnson County CC (KS) 

Brandon Stone got himself on the 2023 Draft map by touching 95 MPH in a September start. He didn’t have that velocity at Jupiter, but still showed some things for evaluators in the rainy Florida weather. The fastball sat 86-90 MPH touching 91, with really good carrying life from an over-the-top armslot. 

More interesting was his 76-78 MPH curveball, which had nasty two-plane break and could be a true 70 grade pitch with more refinement. The 6-6, 210 lbs. righty has projection written all over him, and will be closely monitored when the weather warms up in Kansas.

Tom Brennan - Preliminary Top 50 Mets Prospect Worksheet

SOME GUPPY PROSPECTS DESERVE TO BE RANKED

I came across another website's (Prospects1500) Top 50 (actually Top 52) produced prior to the 2022 season, and found it pretty solid stuff (good for them) except for 2 notable misses I mention at the end (so make sure you read that far).  

I added in Parada, Tidwell, & Jett, 3 very talented draftees in July 2022, to the list. 

The Brennan Top 50 list is a work in progress, so I thought this might be an interesting way to start it.

I'll formulate a tighter top 50 later, probably in January 2023.

Here is their logic on prospects' Tiered Ranking, which make logical sense to me:

Prospects1500 Tiers: Tier 1: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years Tier 2: Players with an above-average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor Tier 3: Players with an average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor Tier 4: Players who have the potential of making the majors, or have a high likelihood of making the majors but providing minimal impact (e.g. middle reliever, low-ceiling UT guys. Tier 5: Players of interest, worth keeping an eye on, who have an outside chance of making their team’s 40-man roster

Ages/levels at left were respective ages and highest levels prior to 2022.

Tier 1	Brennan’s Nov. 2022 Take
1. Francisco Alvarez, C, 20, High-A	Agreed. Tier 1, # 1. BOOM!
2. Brett Baty, 3B, 22, AA	Agreed. Tier 1, # 2. BANG!
Tier 2
3. Ronny Mauricio, SS, 20, AA	Agreed. Tier 1, # 3.  114 RBIs in 2022 pre-Thanksgiving.  BASH!
4. Matt Allan, RHP, 20, Low-A.	Non-play since 2019. To me, that slides him to Tier 3, # 11.
5. Mark Vientos, 3B, 22, AAA	Agreed. Tier 2 # 5. BOMB!
Kevin Parada	2022 draft, I’d put him at #4 now.
Jett Williams	2022 draft, I’d put him at #7 now.
Tier 3
6. J.T. Ginn, RHP, 22, High-A	Traded.  Strong in Az Fall League.
7. Alex Ramirez, OF, 19, Low-A	Tier 2, #8.
8. Robert Dominguez, RHP, 20, Rookie (FCL).	Fragile.  Tier 4, much lower rank.  Just 12 pro IP?  Come on, dude.
9. Dominic Hamel, RHP, 22, Rookie (FCL)	Tier 3, edging towards Tier 2, my # 9.
Blade Tidwell	2022 draft. High Octane RHP. Tier 2 # 11
10. Calvin Ziegler, RHP, 19, High Sch	Tier 3, # 11.  Unexpectedly wild in 2022.
11. Carlos Cortes, 2B, 24, AA	Slipped to a Tier 4/5 after a bad 2022.
12. Khalil Lee, OF, 23, MLB	Slipped to a Tier 4/5 after a bad 2022.
13. Jose Butto, RHP, 23, AA	Tier 3, he’s my # 12. Solid 2022.
14. Jaylen Palmer, IF/OF, 21, High-A	Slipped to a Tier 4/5 after a K-bad 2022.
15. Junior Santos, RHP, 20, Low-A	Disappointing 2022, I’d put him Tier 4
16. Nick Plummer, OF, 25, AAA	Slipped to a Tier 4/5 after a bad 2022.
17. Joel Diaz, RHP, 17, Rookie (DSL)	Leave him here for now.   He was fair in St Lucie, but made strides.
Tier 4
18. T. Blankenhorn, 2B/OF, 25, MLB	Free agent after so-so 2022.
19. Thomas Szapucki, LHP, 25, MLB	Traded; any doubt he’s a budding superstar??
20. Josh Walker, LHP, 27, AAA	Hurt a lot in 2022;good in Az. #20.
21. JT Schwartz, 1B, 22, Low-A	Hit well, not much power but it was Bklyn.  2023 is his year to shine in AA. I bet he will.  My # 18.
22. Hayden Senger, C, 24, AA	Hit tool not good in 2022.  Tier 4.
23. Carlos Rincon, OF, 24, AA	Hurt most of year; free agent.
24. Eric Orze, RHP, 24, AAA	Some really bad AAA games, but fanned a lot of dudes.  Only his 1st full year.  I think he’ll meet the challenge. In my top 20.
25. Nick Meyer, C, 24, AA	Another low nit year. Grote Light?
26. Joander Suarez, RHP, 21, Low-A	45 IP in 2021-22 after no 2020.  To be a pitcher, you need to pitch.
27. Jake Mangum, OF, 25, AA	Unprotected Rule 5 despite hitting over .300 in 2022. Always ranked lower than K. Lee; s/b reversed.
28. Adam Oller, RHP, 27, AAA	Part of Bassitt deal.  Spotty 2022 for the Oakland franchise.
29. Jordany Ventura, RHP, 21, DNP in 2021 (Rookie ball in 2019)	Did not pitch much at all – time for him to break out.  Or fade away.
30. Michael Otanez, RHP, 24, High-A	Free agent.  Walked > a man per inning. And roughed up in AAA,
31. Simon Juan, OF, 16, International signee	Lousy DSL year but SO young; he will explode in 2023. In my top 30.
32. Shervyen Newton, IF, 22, Low-A	Lousy K-filled year (and career).  Signed by Boston.
33. Mike Vasil, LHP, 21, Rookie (FCL)	Pitched well in 2022, great in Arizona, he is now Tier 3, top 20.
34. Kevin Kendall, IF, 22, Low-A	Looks like a player, definitely Tier 4 (for now) in Brennan Top 30. 2023 is a big year to see if he can size up to mighty Wyatt Young.
Tier 5
35. Chris Scott, RHP, 22, Rookie (FCL)	Bombed in Arizona, but I will leave him in Tier 4 for now.  Was OK in A ball in 2022.
36. Luke Ritter, 2B/OF, 24, High-A	His below average average makes me think Tier 5.  Push him into the 40s.
37. Stanley Consuegra, OF, 21, Rookie (FCL)	Still like him, made progress, in my top 30, but 2023 is year to really show it.
38. Jose Peroza, IF, 21, High-A	He is definitely in my top 30, another Dangerfield prospect. 194 career RBIs.
39. Ryley Gilliam RHP 25AAA	Surged for a bit in past, but fell apart with injuries. Is he done?
40. Daison Acosta, RHP, 23, DNP in 2021 (Low-A in 2019)	Awful 2022 start, fine finish, top 30
41. Justin Lasko, RHP, 24 AA	Yawn. Released.
42. Nic Gaddis, C/IF, 25, AA	Showed some potential but hitting issues – just .202 and 84 Ks in 390 PAs.  #42 is about right.
43. Carlos Dominguez, OF, 21, Rookie (FCL)	Strikeout HR machine at the plate. 173 K in 111 gms for the Lucites.
44. Raul Beracierta, 1B/OF, 22, AA	Hit well in St Lucie, but free agent.
45. Willy Mays Fañas, OF, 17, International signee	Some say he’ll be good. I’m a wait-and-see guy. .257, no HRs in DSL. Fast kid. Turns 18 in Jan ‘23
46. Mitch Ragan, RHP, 24, AA	Released.
47. Wilmer Reyes, IF, 23, High-A	Fragile and a free agent.
48. Warren Saunders, IF, 22, Low-A	Low-pop .206 in 2022. Not top 50.
49. Daniel Juarez, LHP, 20, Low-A	Pitched very well in 2022 – 4-1, 1.66 ERA with 59 Ks in 43 IP in A ball. AND NO HRs allowed in 109 career innings!  Top 30, for sure.
50. Cole Gordon, LHP, 26, AA	Meh.  2 IP 2022. Leave him at 50.
51. Omar De Los Santos, OF 22 Low A	Omar has to be a Tier 4 now.  Fix the K problem in a big way, though, and he is Tier 2.  But his Ks have me rank him in low 30s.
52. Franklin Parra, LHP 22 AA	Released.
TWO GUYS WHO ARE Not on anyone’s Top 50 lists but mine pre-2022, which greatly puzzles me:
BRYCE MONTES DE OCA	Seriously, guy throws as high as 102 and he is not in a top 52 list?  I currently have him at # 13.       85 career IP, 120 Ks, 1 HR, 17 of 20 saves. Will be a  Met in 2023.
WYATT YOUNG	Hit .370 as a rookie, but not in top 52?  Now, in 2 years (one short, one full), he is .290/.380/.400 in 640 PAs, mostly in AA and AAA, 90 runs scored, above average D?  I have him at around # 14.  Could make the Mets in 2023 if an IF gets injured.  A  Guillorme friggin’ clone, Sport.   Oh, and Fangraphs has Young making his MLB debut in 2023, with 28 plate appearances and .242, so that supports him being ranked in the teens.  His career ceiling?  I won't venture a guess, but at one time, Jeff McNeil was thought to have a low ceiling.  He changed that to a vaulted ceiling.

 So - asking all Tier 1 readers…

what dost thou think?