By Mike Steffanos
After a really rough start, the New York Mets are looking like the competitive team we hoped to see.
Coming into the season, I thought the 2024 Mets bore similarities to the 2005 club. When I resurrected my long-dormant blog in 2020, I wrote a series of posts about those 2005 Mets. They were the first Mets team I wrote about when I started the original version of Mike's Mets in August of that season. I live in a place with few Mets fans. All of my friends were Yankees and Red Sox fans. To this day, I have no close friends or family who root for the Mets. Taking the unusual step of becoming a blogger when I was already in my mid-40s was me looking for a place to talk about that Mets club.
It turns out this year's Mets team had a little too much in common with the 2005 crew. Those Mets lost their first five games of the season before righting the ship and winning six in a row. This year's club also lost their first five. While they didn't emulate 2005's immediate winning streak to get back over .500, the 2024 Mets have gone 10-3 since, boosting their record to 10-8 and achieving a tick above blessed mediocrity. More importantly, they have taken four consecutive series against decent or better teams that had been playing well: Cincinnati, Atlanta, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh. The first three of those series wins were achieved by taking the rubber game, something the Mets were terrible at last season. Then they took it up another notch in sweeping the Pirates. The Reds, Royals, and Pirates were hot coming into their respective series, and winning 2 of 3 in Atlanta was an impressive achievement.
This isn't to say we're watching the gelling of a powerhouse team here in Queens. But we see a club that can hang around in the Wild Card race all year and possibly grab a playoff spot. While certainly not perfect, the bullpen looks like a huge upgrade over last year's. This is crucial for a squad that doesn't feature starting pitchers who go deep into games — not even the 6 or 7-inning outings that pass for exemplary starts in today's game.
José Buttó is one pitcher who has delivered a couple of 6-inning starts after repeating his excellence against the Royals. More importantly, he is providing the Mets crucial starting pitching depth. The Mets are finding it impossible to keep sending Buttó back to Syracuse. José has grabbed that fifth starter slot, at least until Tylor Megill returns. Even if Megill does come back fairly quickly, I could see Buttó locking down the spot starter/long relief role that Trevor Williams excelled at in 2022.
Many people, including some who get paid for their opinions on baseball, wrote the Mets off after they went 1-5 on their opening homestand. That was, of course, silly. It would be equally foolish to foresee the Mets going neck-and-neck with the Braves this season based on the past 13 games. This is not a great team playing in Queens this season. There will be more periods of disappointing play like that first homestand this summer, mixed with more hopeful stretches like the current one. Again, this is reminiscent of the 2005 crew.
But I believe the 2024 Mets have more potential than their counterparts from 19 years ago. While no Pedro Martínez is leading the current rotation, there is more quality top-to-bottom. Kaz Ishii was the fifth starter for half the season for those old Mets and was awful. There were no prospects on the farm ready to debut for that club. Omar Minaya had to scramble to piece together a rotation back in 2005. In contrast, the current farm system has several interesting arms with a real chance to be Major League contributors.
5 comments:
Glad you are writing again Mike. As usual, a great piece that looks at things rationally, unlike the Olneys of the world that are looking for headlines.
Yes Mike, thank you for another well-thought article.
I myself am still trying to figure out what to think about the upcoming 5 months or so until game 162. I think I find myself perhaps a bit more bullish on this team than your article, but you are right to believe that they will need some good fortune to remain in it.
Some positives I see:
(1) The use of the entire roster and getting the most out of the bench players. It is key to keeping them all fresh and ready and give them semi-regular at-bats if they expect them to be productive later when needed.
(2) As stated by others, the bullpen looks better. Hopefully the circular train from Syracuse to New York will slow down and the pen becomes fairly stable.
(3) Carlos Mendoza does not seem to be overmatched as a rookie manager. Referencing #1 above, I am impressed by the use of his bench. It would be nice if he could challenge the starters to give him another inning once in a while, but, overall, a passing grade so far.
(4) Baty - he looks like he believes he belongs. That confidence can go a long way to becoming a very good player. While some may complain now about his lack of extra base hits, they will come as he continues to swing well. Give me the average at this point.
(5) They are winning with great starts from Nimmo, Lindo, McNeil, and even Alonso (more than half of his RBIs so far are driving himself in with a homer) and Alvarez (one homer to date). I am convinced that those five will progress to their career averages - then the lineup becomes very deep.
And I don't like to gloat over others misfortunes, but the Braves are going to need some good fortune to keep that pitching staff held together (although they are doing OK without Acuna having a great start).
I am in the 'looking at playoffs in 2024' camp at this point.
Thanks, guys.
I actually think the Mets have a really good chance of making the playoffs this season. I'm particularly impressed with the bullpen which is something the Mets have always struggled to build before Stearns. But I do think it's fair to point out that it can still go either way for this team. Watching Olney go way too far towards pessimism made me feel that I wanted to fairly look at both directions this season could go. But if you forced me to bet either way I think I'd go with a wild card berth
Last year our bullpen looked fine in April. They did not for the whole second half. The reason was that they were overused. This year's pen has to be protected by starters that go more than 5 innings or some good long relief. They have neither right now.
The Mets have also not really faced much good pitching. There have been a few, like this kid Jared Jones for the Pirates, who one-hit the Mets through five. Otherwise this team has been lucky to avoid the good ones. The Atlanta series did not bring matchups against Strider (injured) or Fried (rotation).
The Dodgers series will test that.
No need to apologize. Glad you are back. I stand by my forecast that the Mets are a playoff team
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