4/2/24

Tom Brennan: Aged to Perfection? Let's Look at Prospect Pitchers This Spring

“HEY! HOW DID OUR PROSPECT PITCHERS FARE THIS SPRING?”

Once upon a time....

Doc Gooden debuted with the Mets at 19 years, 143 days old.

Darryl Strawberry? 21 years, 55 days old.

Ruben Tejada?  20 years, 162 days old.

Nolan Ryan? 19 year, 223 days old.

All 12 Mets top 30 prospect pitchers have not cracked the MLB ceiling yet.

What are their current ages, prospect rankings and highest levels in 2023? 

(Spring training stats and prospect breakout game performance, in parens):

RK LVL PLAYER/AGE

5.  AA   Christian Scott: 24 years. (5 IP, 3.60 ERA, 8 Ks)

10. AA  Blade Tidwell: 22 yr. (1.2 IP, 16.2 ERA, 4 Ks; 1 prospect game IP, 1 R)

11. AAA  Mike Vasil: 24 yr. (1 IP,  0.00 ERA, 1 K). Rough Sunday start. 

13. A      Brandon Sproat: 23 years. (Excellent prospect game IP, 2 Ks)

14. AA   Dom Hamel 25 yr (3.1 IP, 10.8 ERA, 2 K; 2 prospect gm IP, 1 R, 2 K)

18. AA   Tyler Stuart 24 yr (5 IP, 3.6 ERA, 2 K; 1 perfect prospect gm IP, 0 K)

19. A      Nolan McLean: 22 years. (One excellent prospect game IP, 1 K)

22. A      Calvin Ziegler: 21 years.  (One excellent prospect game IP, 2 K)

24. AAA  Nate Lavender - 24 years. (3 perfect IP, 7 Ks!)

27. A      Raimon Gomez - 22 years. No stats.

28. AA   Joander Suarez - 24 years. (2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1 K)

29. A     Saul Garcia - 20 years. No stats.

Twelve total pitching prospects.  On average, 23 1/2 years old.

One 25 year old, five 24 year olds, one 23 year old, three 22 year olds, one 21 year old, and one 20 year old.  And five of the 12 have pitched very few, if any, innings in pro ball yet.

Collectively, as a group, that seems a bit old to me. I'd feel much better about our pitching top 30 if, on average, they were one year younger.  I do not know how this compares to other organizations.  

Thoughts?

Before I go, though, kudos to six pitchers not in the Top 30 who pitched very well in Spring Training:

DANIEL JUAREZ  4.2 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 4 Ks, 0.00 (does he ever not pitch well?)

JUNIOR SANTOS  3 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 Ks, 0.00

JOSH CORNIELLY 2.2 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 Ks, 3.38

JORDAN GEBER 4 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 Ks, 0.00

BEN SIMON 2 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K, 0.00

TYLER JAY 5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 Ks, 0.00


THINGS THAT ANNOY ME THAT I CAN'T CONTROL

The Syracuse Mets opened their season on March 29.  The other 3 minor league Mets teams open an entire week later.  Why?  

Just start those 3 teams a week earlier.  i know there is a lot of logistics involved, but teams should know who 85% of their players will be with by, say, March 22.  

Let those guys play and other 15% of the guys play as soon as their assignments are finalized.  

Me personally?  I'm selfish - when I look at the Mets' MILB scoreboard, I want to see 4 or more teams scheduled, not just one, so I can see how everyone is doing.  And, when the Mets and 4 minor league teams play on any given day, I am 95% confident that at least one of the 5 teams will win. Wins make me happy, I don't know about you. 

METS CANNOT HIT

5-0, 10 inning loss? Lowest runs scored in spring training, lowest runs scored in first 4 regular season games?

Nauseating to watch. My brother agrees. This franchise always scores less than you’d expect. Always.

Mets 8 runs in 4 games. Atlanta 34 runs in 4 games. Good grief.


23 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

With the excellent pitching in the Spring everyone was on cloud 9. However, they didn't hit then and guess what, they're not hitting now. Methinks farming out your hottest run producer was not wise but understood. Martinez can't get here soon enough, but what will people say if he starts off say 3-30 with a .100 average?

Tom Brennan said...

Reese, anything is possible with the Mets, and usually to the negative.

TexasGusCC said...

Vientos only hit .250 during the Grapefruit League, but just the fact that they were punting the DH for ten games is annoying. Taking ten games for granted…. Why was it that he couldn’t stay active instead of giving us DJ Stewart? But, you know what, when all you want to be is mediocre at best, and that’s the goal you make clear in advance of the season, deal with it.

Tom Brennan said...

Gus, they gave us DJ Stewart AND Zach Short, instead of Vientos. Inexplicable. You can s..t the season away early. Demoting Vientos was a major mistake.

DJ Stewart stunk in spring training and is hitless now. Short is not a major leaguer.

Reese Kaplan said...

You mean you expect OFFENSE? Perish the thought. No one respects people who drive in runs, at least no one in the front office.

Tom Brennan said...

Reese, I've got an interesting article concerning the offense coming up on Thursday.

Reese Kaplan said...

You mean the NOFFENSE? It's hard to win games when you're hitting under .100.

TexasGusCC said...

Tom, why do GMs like scrubs and AAAA players? I have no problem with Stewart or Short, but in fact, I believe Short made the team. His performance showed out. But, Stewart’s didn’t. So, between Stewart and Vientos, Vientos deserved it. But, so did Taylor. Why isn’t Taylor playing more than Stewart? I have no problem letting the kid have a chance at some regular at bats before Martinez comes…. Just very upsetting to see moves that don’t make sense and are either driven by innuendos, politics, or faulty rationale.

Now, does that mean Vientos can root against his organization’s top team? No. I really don’t know how to handle that.

Tom Brennan said...

Ronel Blanco throws a complete game, 105 pitch, no hitter for the Astros vs. Jays. 30 years old , he was 2-1, 4.50 in his rookie season at age 29. Very weird start to the season.

Tom Brennan said...

Gus, why are you surprised that the Mets (.188) are hitting below the Mendoza line?

Paul Articulates said...

Nice throw by Nimmo yesterday to nail a runner trying to score at the plate. The outfield is looking good.

TexasGusCC said...

Tom, that was cruel… LOL! The manager can’t keep being the punchline. This is the roster he was given. I like Stearns and believe in him, but he should know better than I who deserves their spot and who doesn’t. And, I really think this problem started in December when he refuted a sell off and tried to do things halfway…

Tom Brennan said...

Gus this team may belong in a halfway house.

To be positive, Manaea was sensational. He has really looked good all year.

TexasGusCC said...

My point about AAAA players isn’t just for hitters. Megill gets hurt. Who is doing up for him, Butto or Lucchesi? Neither, they are chasing Julio Tehran. And no wonder fans are pissed. WTF is going on here?

Tom Brennan said...

Gus, Vientos is his own worst enemy in one sense due to his poor fielding in the minors and majors.

But put yourself in his shoes. He played pro ball in 2017, 2018, and 2019. COVID eliminated his 2020. He played mostly minors with some majors in 2021, 2022, 2023. He could be ready for an explosion in 2024, hitting-wise, it can take time (think JD Martinez).

But my brother faults him on his fielding. "Are you telling me he couldn't have taken flies and worked on outfield play on his own in the off season, to be competent out there even if he struggles at 3rd base?" 66 errors in 333 career games at 3rd base? Way too high.

Can't say as I disagree with my brother. Without 1B available, he has locked himself into first base, and Pete is there. He's not fast, but he could have increased his options if he was a remotely close to adequate defensive OF.

My brother added, "And how do we know, if Pete leaves, if Mark would succeed as a MLB first baseman?" We don't.

Someone better than DJ Stewart is out of work...Dominic Smith.

TexasGusCC said...

I agree with your brother…

bill metsiac said...

Gus, according to ML rules, a player optioned prior to OD cannot be recalled until April 12. I don't understand the reason for it, but it explains why Butto, Lucchesi and others can't be here until then.

bill metsiac said...

So do I. The thought of having Vientos play every day in the Queens OF is downright scary.
He is where he should be---in a place where he can play every day and hopefully learn a position.

Having him sit on the ML bench helps no one.

bill metsiac said...

Tom, that comparison of the ages of pitching prospects is interesting. I can only think of one possible reason, and I can't verify it. Is it possible that 50 years ago we were drafting mostly HS grads, while more recently the trend is to college players, who are over 20 on draft day?

bill metsiac said...

One other thing about the "yoots": I may be alone in feeling this way, but Baty is impressing me so far, both with the bat and glove/arm.

Tom Brennan said...

Bill, we need someone to impress us. Glad it is Baty.

Tom Brennan said...

Bill, I think you are mostly right on the age thing. Two reasons: college is higher experience than high school ball, and SO MANY HS pitchers’ arms seem to blow up. The after-TJS result may be < 100%. Some college guys have hadTJS and recovered already and pitched. Think of the downside of drafting Matt Allan, so far at least.

bill metsiac said...

Alvy is more impressive, but that was more expected.