5/29/09

The Mack's Updated Top 50... err... 27 Prospect List




Requirements: Be 24-years old at the beginning of the regular season, or have less than 100 at-bats at the major league level in one season.


Chief Determination Factor: Ceiling and Tools.


Explanation: Most prospect lists have players that are in line to make it to the majors. Not mine. Mine, as stated, is all tools, talent, and ceiling. Batting averages and WHIPs are secondary when you are playing for a team who’s first agenda is to develop players, not win games. Example: Brad Holt can not become a major league pitcher unless he masters secondary pitchers, thus, he has to throw them in real games, thus, there’s a big chance he will give up some runs while mastering… well, you get the picture.


Many of the usual names are not on my list. Names like Nick Evans, Dylan Owen, Mike Antonini, Eddie Kunz, Carlos Muniz are no longer on this list because, in my opinion, they have reached their potential and will progress no more. Sure, some, or all, may wind up back in the majors, but that doesn’t make them a prospect. They once were. They no longer are.


No, this is a list of players to still get excited about.


In addition, it’s impossible to rate someone that is currently on the DL, so players like SP Scott Moviel will have to earn themselves back on when they get back to playing.

1. SS Wilmer Flores – 17 yrs old - Savannah – Flores isn’t having the greatest time in Savannah, but he’s not bottom fishing either. His playing time has been limited in May for reasons no one will explain. Unlimited ceiling at 17-years old.

2. SP Jonathan Niese – Buffalo – in my book, here’s your next Mets rotational pitcher, but it’s not going to happen until 2010. Until then, I hope the Mets leave him alone and let him pitch his turn in Buffalo. He’s definitely having his problems, but he’ll work them out. Look for a late September call up.

3. SP Brad Holt – 22 years old – St. Lucie – Take away his first outing this year and his numbers stand out. Holt is next in line behind Niese and should enter the Mets rotation in 2011.

4. SP Jenrry Mejia – 19-yrs old - St. Lucie – And, right behind Holt, comes Mejia. It’s going to be very hard to hold this kid back, even though there doesn’t seem to be a place for him to slot into. Is he trade bait? I hope not because, in my opinion, his stuff is far better than Maine or Pelfrey at the same stage in their career.

5. SP Jeurys Familia – 19-yrs old – Savannah - Familia continues to impress with his 93+ fastball and excellent curve. Like Mejia, he’s years away, and both will be fighting for a starting slot in 2012 or 2013.

6. 3B Jefry Marte – 17 yrs. old - Savannah – Marte has probably just gone through his worst month in organized ball, but that doesn’t lower his ceiling. Frankly, he’s being rushed this year and should have started this season for Brooklyn.

7. OF Fernando Martinez – 20 yrs. old - Buffalo – I can’t believe this guy is still only 20-years old. Yes, he made it to Queens, but this may be the best it gets. Look for Martinez to take over LF full time in 2010, and slot into batting second.

8. RP Roy Merritt – 23-yrs old – B-Mets - Merritt proved he was human in May, but that doesn’t lower his ceiling potential. Right now, he’s the top reliever in the system and should get an invite to Queens when the rosters expand in September (did I actually mention September this early?)…

9. SS Reece Havens – 23-yrs old - St. Lucie - Havens continues to under-perform and, at his age, needs to step it up immediately.


10. C Josh Thole – 22-yrs old – Binghamton – This is a perfect example of someone who supposedly had no tools and very little ceiling, proving all of us so-called experts wrong.

11. SS Ruben Tejada – 20-yrs old - B-Mets – Has never played at the correct level, but manages to survive. Very high celing and, at the rate the Mets bump him, will be ready just when Jose Reyes’ option comes around.

12. OF Cesar Puello – Extended Camp – small injuries kept Puello in extended camp so far this year, but the fact still remains that he has the second highest ceiling of any outfielders, behind F-Mart. I expect him to open up in Brooklyn, where the press will fall in love with him.

13. SP Eric Beaulac – 22-yrs old – Savannah – Reminds me of Jake Ruckle. Not much press, just nice stats.

14. SP Brant Rustich – 24/yrs old - Lucy – I’m still waiting for Rustich to blow the doors out of the stat sheets. The Mets can’t seem to decide if he is a starter or not, which has definitely slowed down his progress.

15. 1B Ike Davis – 22-yrs old – St. Lucie – Should be ranked first if untapped potential was the only criteria.

16. SP Robert Carson – 20-yrs old – Savannah – Carson is having an up-and-down year so far in Savannah, but, if he solves his wildness, he'll make it someday

17. OF Sean Ratliff – 22-yrs old - Savannah – On May 4, was named SAL player of the week after hitting .552, 1.34 slugging, 8 doubles, 2 HRs, 6 RBIs, and 10 runs scored. The Mets need to bump him up to see how he hits at the A+ level.

18. RP Jimmy Johnson - 23 years old – Savannah - Lots of talent here, though he needs to start moving up at his age.

19. SP Jeffrey Kaplan – 23-years old - Gnats – Converted reliever turning heads in the Coastal Empire.

20. SP Dillon Gee – 23-years old - Binghamton – this is where I get all the flack about the way I grade the players… the reason Gee is so low is, in my opinion, he has just about reached his ceiling… it doesn’t mean he won’t do well as a major league pitcher; it just means you get what you see… now.

21. CL Samuel Tavares – 20-yrs. old – Extended - 4-2, 0.90, 0.90, 37 Ks, 30.0 IP, 18 saves for the 2008 DSL Mets… may be fast tracked to Brooklyn.

22. 3B Adelin Rodriquez – 16-yrs. old – Extended – the Mets top international signee last year… looks like he’s coming straight to the States for 2009.

23. SP Carlos Avellones – 18-yrs old – VSL – the 2nd top player signed last year by the Mets’ international people. Will play this season in Venezuela. All ceiling at this point.

24. SP Orlando Tovar – Extended – excellent 2008 season for the VSL Mets (0-1, 1.54, 1.07, 8 starts, 52K, 41.0 IP… might be the best K/IP ratio in the organization… so far…

25. RP Jhoan Burgos – Extended – Burgos was in only nine games last year for the VSL Mets, but definitely impressed: 1-1, 0.42, 0.80, with 22 Ks in 21.1 IP.

26. SP Angel Cuan – Extended – Cuan was the SP1 with VSL last year and pitched fantastically, without any offensive help… 14 startrs… 1-8, 3.13, 1.14… also, 74 ks in 72.0 IP with only 11 walks.

27. SP Ismael Valdez – 19-yrs. old - Extended - was 6-1, 1.07, 0.89 in 15 games, 14 starts for the DSL Mets… ace of the staff, if there is such a thing in the D.R. All ceiling.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Roy Merritt does not have a high ceiling he is AT BEST Pedro Feliciano lite.

Mack Ade said...

Dear No Name:

It's an opinion poll.

I say tomato...

Feel free to list yours... with your name

Mack

Anonymous said...

Mack, his name is Aderlin Rodriguez not Adrian

Mack Ade said...

my bad typo...

thanks

Mack

acerimusdux said...

Mack, love the site, like your ranking criteria, but to be blunt, this isn't one of your best efforts.

First, I think the top 3 should be Martinez, Holt, and Mejia in some order. If you really think Flores has a potentially higher ceiling than those, you can argue for him there, though that's putting an unusual emphasis on untapped potential. But then Niese, who is at best a #3 SP, really doesn't belong in the top 5. I just think the criteria hasn't been consistently applied here.

Roy Merritt and Jimmy Johnson also don't seem to belong anywhere on a list that is emphasizing ceiling. Neither is in the Mets top half dozen relief prospects. Meanwhile you are leaving out altogether guys like Eddie Kunz, Eric Niesen, Nick Carr, and Ryan Coultas. Kaplan is another low ceiling guy you are ranking too highly by this criteria.

If ceiling is a top criteria, you probably want to be cautious about college arms recently drafted in the mid to late rounds who put up good numbers either at lower levels or in the pen with good command of marginal fastballs.

My attempt at 27:

B+ to A: Martinez, Holt, Mejia
The above combine very high ceilings with dominating current performance.

B: Flores, Marte, Davis, Rustich, Pena, Puello, J. Rodriguez, A. Rodriguez
These guys have high ceilings with some uncertainties.

B-: Niese, Havens, Nieuwenhuis, Kunz, Moviel, Coultas, Carr, Niesen, Familia, Carson
These guys have ceilings that top out more as average big league regular, #3 SP, or setup man.

C+: Gee, Tejada, Thole, Ramirez, Ratliff, Allen
These are lower ceiling guys who lack the tools to be an average or better regular or #3 SP, but who still look like they'll have a good chance to contribute to an MLB team as good platoon guys, quality bullpen arms, or #4 SP.

Mack Ade said...

Now, THIS is a good response...

Thanks for your thoughts and opinions...

In fact, stuff like this would be best served as a guest writer

Email me at macksmets.com and I'll invite you in so you can write your own prospect report

Mack