Richard Jones - Should the Mets use a permanent six man rotation in 2017?

This is my first post for Mack's Mets. A little about who I am. I grew up on Long Island NY as a died hard Mets fan. I joined the Air Force out of High School. I am now a displaced Mets fan. I live near Dallas Texas where I am a High School math and history teacher. I mostly teach math, Algebra II and Geometry. Some of my students who had me for both suggest that I never attempt to teach English. This indicates that I can't promise there wont be spelling and grammatical mistakes in my post. I will do a better job than I usually do at proof reading but still no promises. Now lets get to it.

The idea of a permanent six man rotation. In reality most teams are already using a six man rotation. It's just that one of the six is being rotated to the DL because of Tommy John surgery. Over the last five or six years there has been an average of 30 Tommy John surgeries performed on MLB pitchers per year. Starters end up under the knife more frequently than relievers. It takes 12 to 18 months to recover and generally two seasons to get back to normal. Bradley Woodrum of mlbtraderumors supplied stats that showed the better a pitcher performed the more likely he was to end up under the knife. The lower a pitcher's earned run average the more likely he is to end up under the knife. He suggest this is because better pitchers are asked to pitch more often. I think it's because better pitchers have better stuff and better stuff requires more of the arm. There's also a connection based on how hard pitchers throw. All of that means that at any given time there are about 36 starters somewhere in the process of recovering from Tommy John surgery and that they are above average starters as a whole.

If there was ever a team that was going to commit to a 6 man rotation it would be the Mets. Before we get into that lets look at some of the objections to a six man rotation.

1. A team's ace, who is likely getting paid a large sum of money, will lose 6 to 7 starts. You want him to pitch as much as possible. The 6 or 7 starts he loses will be picked up by someone with far less talent. That will likely result in more losses.

2. Pitchers will not be as sharp on 5 days rest as they would be on 4 days rest.

3. You lose a roster spot somewhere else or the starters have to go deeper into games which could increase their risk for Tommy John surgery.

So why would a six man rotation work for the Mets?

With the exception of Colon each pitcher in their rotation profiles at higher risk for Tommy John Surgery (including second Tommy John Surgery) than the average MLB pitcher. They throw harder and they have earned run averages below average. Both those factors contribute to a higher rate of Tommy John surgeries needed. The Mets are one of the few teams that have the depth to pull off a six man rotation. The Mets should have high expectations of playing in the post season. In both their last two trips to the post season their starters were far from 100%.

If the Mets come out of spring training in tact they could put forth a six man rotation of Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, Matz, Wheeler, and Gsellman. Lugo and Colon ready to jump in if one of them is not ready. So back to objection number 1. The Mets would be giving 6 or 7 of Syndergaard's and deGrom's starts to Gsellman. Gsellman helped the Mets get to the post season this year. I trust him and I think he earned the opportunity to help us get there in 2017. That increases the chances of having Syndergaard and deGrom at 100% when you need them most. Having Gsellman, Lugo, or Colon as your number six minimizes objection number  1.

Objection 2 is that pitchers will not be sharp on 5 days rest. I currently live near Arlington TX, home of the Texas Rangers. Even before Yu Darvish went under the knife he was advocating for a six man rotation. It was what he was used to and he performed well under those conditions. Japan and Korea are both using 6 man rotations. There are a lot of arm issues in Japan but not Tommy John type injuries. Most of the issues are attributed to the insane use of pitchers as amateurs. The lack of Tommy John surgeries needed suggest the 6 man rotation is working. Japan does have a 28 man roster. The manager does have to declare 3 players ineligible before each game. Pitchers in Japan and Korea don't have issues being sharp with 5 days of rest. They adjusted to that and Met pitchers can adjust to that.

Issue number 3 seems to be the biggest issue. MLB has to increase the rosters to at least 26 or 27 and allow teams to declare a player or 2 ineligible like Japan does. Until MLB does that they would have to build bullpen depth in their minors in rotate players through AAA for the bullpen.

Pitchers are getting bigger and stronger. However ligaments and tendons aren't keeping up with muscle and bone mass. So far MLB has not adjusted. They keep doing the same thing and expecting different results. Albert Einstein spoke to this "Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Paying players to rehab is more expensive than paying them to pay. I only mentioned pitchers missing time recovering from Tommy John surgery. It would also minimize other injuries  such as bone spurs and shoulder injuries. 

The Mets are the team most likely to benefit from a six man rotation and the team in the best situation to implement it.