By Chris Dial August 29, 2020
The Mets are having a tough end to the week, even with winning a double header over the Yankees. GM Brodie Van Wagenen was heard on a hot microphone complaining about how operations was going, and the Wilpons were not happy about it, leading to whispers of Van Wagenen possibly being fired. Then news of A-Rod stepping back from the table, allowing Steve Cohen to make a move. Cohen says he wants to spend spend spend if he is the owner. That part is good news for the Mets. Unfortunately, all of this is just gossip, and whatever will be, will be. Let’s focus on the field.
There will be awards if we make it to the end of the season, and possibly if we do not (like 1994). There will be a batting champion. Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon was batting .500 at the end of the day on August 11, leading to some “analysts” to talk about .400. Two weeks later, Blackmon still leads both leagues, at .374. He hit .218 the last 14 games. Regression to the mean is real. Mets second baseman Robinson Cano is hitting .378 but is 16 plate appearances short of qualifying. Maybe by the end of next week.
The Mets do not have any players in the basic count stats races, as Pete Alonso has struggled. Coupled with the COVID-related loss of games and innings, no player is likely to reach the plate appearances to keep up with the current leaders.
One concern is the Gold Glove Awards. With the regular season awards like Cy Young or Most Valuable Player, the “best player” is usually identified. Or perhaps the top tier that fans can enjoy a discussion about – is it Tatis, or is it Mookie Betts? Is the CY winner going to be deGrom for the third straight season or will Atlanta’s Max Fried stay unbeaten?
Gold Gloves require volume. A baseball season usually means 162 games, and a “Cal Ripken” season that means 1400 innings. Even with that many innings, defensive players get about 500 chances up the middle, and down from there. As strikeouts and home runs have gone up, defensive chances keep going down. Gold Glove ballots also get sent out at the start of September…typically. That means a players performance, summarized on the ballots, is just through about 142 games, and to qualify, a fielder needs 710 innings. That works out to be “the starter” because the player played five innings per game, just like a pitcher getting a win.
All the statheads will wince at the idea that 700 innings is enough to determine the best fielder, but usually that’s not where everyone is. Players have usually played most of the games, with 1000-1200 innings. And since defensive runs prevented is mostly a count stat, more innings allows to accumulate more runs.
In 1999, Rafael Palmeiro won the Gold Glove for first base. Everyone knows he did not play first base. He was the DH. Lee Stevens, in case anyone was wondering. But Palmeiro did play 29 games at first, and that worked out to be 246 innings.
Why is that relevant?
Right now, the St. Louis Cardinals have played 23 games. Even if they play 60, which is unlikely, many of those games will be seven innings long. The Cardinals have several particularly good fielders – Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong, Kolten Wong, but they will struggle to see enough chances to differentiate themselves from other fielders. There will be players eligible for the Gold Glove that have played 200 innings.
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