What goes up, must come down. We've all heard that one.
How about, what goes down must come up?
Which Mets had a down 2020 and will bounce back strong?
For some, a bounce back in 2021 will be truly key for the team, as they are core players.
For others, it means fighting to return to the major leagues or to shore up a very shaky major league career foundation.
CORE PLAYERS:
Pete Alonso - do you think he will be closer to 2019 or 2021 this season?
Marcus Stroman - will the year off and pending free agency be a 2021 boon to Stroman?
JD Davis - if not traded, same question as for Big Pete.
Francisco Lindor - had a very solid 2020 for most mere mortals, but he was less other-worldly than in prior seasons. Will he have one of his standard pre-2020 superstar 80 extra base hit seasons?
Jeurys Familia - also if not traded, will he improve over his 2020, which was shakier than his 3.77 ERA indicated?
Seth Lugo - he wanted an answer about being a starter - his 2020 poor starter performance seemed to cement his role in the bullpen. Can he excel as a pen arm in 2020?
Dellin Betances - 2020 was just a lost season for the former beast pen arm - can he rediscover his "Bullpen Beast" in 2021, or is he in permanent decline?
Robert Gsellman - 2020 was a terrible, injury-riddled season for the Gazelle, but he has a career winning record as a Met. Can he get back to decent again?
Noah Syndergaard - will he be the god of thunder again upon his return in 2021? (Me? I think he will return with a flourish).
OTHER PLAYERS:
Tomas Nido - last year's results were far too limited to be statistically significant. Will he finally prove he belongs? Or will we see the Emperor has no clothes?
Franklyn Kilome - got smacked around in 2020, but he was coming off Tommy John. Will we see a new and improved pitcher, or have we seen the true Kilome?
Jordan Yamamoto - he had a horrific 2020 - was it due to injury, and can he bounce back to his 2019 form when he threw some bad games, but 4 terrific ones?
Joey Lucchesi - after 2 very solid seasons with San Diego, he was hurting and hardly pitched in 2020. When he did, he wasn't good. He says he's healthy. Can he return to 2018-19 form?
Jerry Blevins - he did some fine pitching for the Mets a few years back, but he was off in 2020 and getting up there in baseball doggie years. Anything left in the tank?
Jose Peraza - had a strong early start to his career, but the last two seasons have been pointing down. Can he fix the direction of the arrow?
Mallex Smith - ditto the Peraza question. Mets' outfield veteran signings in hopes of a rebound (e.g., Carlos Gomez, Juan Lagares) have not fared well as Mets in recent years.
Tim Tebow - is this the year he reaches superstar status, or fades forever from the baseball diamond?
Ali Sanchez - can his bat rise, and his catcher's game with him, or will his bat forever be not-quite-ready-for-prime-time?
Who did I miss, folks? Probably some of the AAAA bullpen guys. Maybe, for instance, Drew Smith will rise and dazzle us at some point in 2021.
What do you think, folks?
11 comments:
The question that comes to my mind immediately is how will Conforto deal with probably not having a .424 BABIP? Those numbers don’t happen too often, and especially over 162 games.
Then, if Smith is standing in the grass, can he hold his own? The whole Mets defensive outfield is shaky.
As for Peterson, will the 2020 version stay or the minor league mediocre guy?
Will Diaz’ career even years good, odd years he sucks trend continue?
Your question about Alonso is the reason I would have traded him. The GM’s credo: ‘Better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late’. If Alonso’s year is closer to 2020, you won’t get much for him. Cash in the years of control for a limited player.
Texas Gus, I guess it is never too late to trade Pete, but that would be a shocker indeed right now. "Face of Franchise" stuff.
I have high confidence in Edwin - don't ask me why, just do. He got off to a bad start in 2020 that kept that mentality of "what's wrong with Edwin?" going, but that first blown game was a HR by Ozuna, who ended up with an insane 56 RBIs in 60 games, so that clearly was excusable.
I liked Peterson's ability to actually PITCH - so I am hopeful he won't encounter a sophisticating jinx, but this is, after all, major league hitters he is facing and they do adjust.
Hopefully, Smith managed to get lots of outfield work in somehow during this bizarre off season.
Conforto? A huge chance of some significant BABIP regression this year. After his .322/.412/.515 in 2020, Baseball Reference projects him at .260/.362/.472 for 2021, not great if accurate, and Boras is his agent. Ugh.
Yeah, I looked at that 7/$175MM estimate to resign him on SNY.com and thought they need to all be replaced. I don’t know about .260, but Conforto is in the .270’s maybe .280’s kind of hitter. I’d love to be wrong and see what those guys at SNY see.
Crazy $$ for Conforto. Maybe he is raising his game to a new level starting in 2020. It happens. Sometimes.
Ignoring last season's small sample size and BABIP crazy numbers, Michael Conforto has never quite been the hitter I thought he would become. To the point where I accepted that he was a .260 hitter, good for 25-30 HRs and 85 RBI. That has value. But, still, disappointing. In the four seasons when he's had at least 300 ABs, he's put up averages of .220, .243, and .257.
Seems like a wonderful person and an asset. Maybe he's just now reaching the next level. That BABIP is unsustainable.
I've never shared the burning desire to extend him at this point. There was a time when it would have been a bargain, maybe a 5-year deal in 2018, but the Wilpons weren't doing anything like that at the time. Now he's coming off great numbers after a strange, aborted season with only one year to wait until he's a free agent with Scott Boras as his rep. There are no discounts to be had anymore. It would be nice to keep him.
Personally, while I have concerns about Pete, but I don't think trading him at this point would have been a good idea. For starters, he's young and hugely popular and, yeah, he hit 53 bombs in 2019 with, I think, 120 RBI. Again, my mantra: I won't overreact to WEIRD COVID-2020 SEASON.
I am very glad, right now, that Mets have retained, so far, Alonso, Smith, and Davis. I'd like to get a longer look. Each one has shown tremendous upside in bright flashes, but I am also not convinced what's real and what isn't yet. Another season will tell us a lot.
Besides, again, from a PR perspective I think trading Pete would have been nearly impossible and possibly unthinkable. The Mets finally get a young slugger and ditch him almost instantly?
Right now, all those guys work for peanuts. Pete doesn't have to be great to be a nice piece in the puzzle.
I liked Peterson. I also doubt that he'll be strong all season long.
He threw 116 IP in AA in 2019 (giving up 119 hits).
Last year he threw 49 IP and needed to sit for a while because of arm fatigue.
Is this a guy who will give us 180 innings in the regular season and still have something for the playoffs? I'd be surprised.
But: I liked his poise, composure, and overall competitiveness. He was terrific. I like him in the #5 slot and hope he can build strength and stay relatively healthy.
Jimmy
Jimmy, very well put on all counts.
But heck, no one called me out for leaving Jose Martinez out of my article :)
He fits right on - potentially good bat, no field.
Oh man .. grest topic - I kinda just gotta throw in my $0.02
For Tom :-) Bounceback player of the year: Steven Matz
Alonso: Separate comment to follow
Stroman: Not worried about him - he is a workout freak - he'll be fine and a have a strong season
J.D. Davis: I think his ceiling at bat is his 2019 numbers. I think he'll be fine defensively and good, not great, offensively.
Lindor: He is a superstar player and will continue to be
Familia: I think he is a WYSIWYG (or whizzywhig). 2020 was it - no worse, chance to be a bit better. I haven't yet done the deep dive into his recent stats. I think it makes a huge difference how he is used as to what the results are. Perhaps more later on him.
Lugo: My candidate for continued regression. I hope he is full time bullpen.
Betances: Who knows?
Gsellman: Who cares? I would be extremely surprised to see him on the Mets opening day roster
Syndergaard: All we can do is hope. Hope that he doesn't push too hard to come back too fast and try too hard once he gets back. Being his walk year doesn't help. But somehow, I actually think he'll be OK and get better as the year goes on, peaking around playoff time.
Others: Nido. .ugh .. is he really the first backup? I hope McCann stays healthy. If Nido can catch once a week, I should be just fine; scary if he has to catch every day for 6 weeks running
Kilome: No idea
Yamamoto: Good pickup I think. Could be some hidden gold - or silver - or bronze there
Lucchesi: I miss Steven Matz already
Blevins: I was a huge Blevins fan in the past for some reason. Not feeling it so much for Act II
Peraza: Nobody has been talking much about this signing, but something tells me he will be a bigger part of the 2021 than one might think at this point.
M. Smith: no, no, and no .. why? Billy Hamilton 2
Tebow: Not worth blog space
Sanchez: I don't have any feel for him at all. If he can catch every day at Syracuse this year, he may be a better bet than Nido in the long run.
D. Smith (and D. Zamora). My two sleeper picks to really help the bullpen in 2021.
J. Martinez: The man can (could) hit, but like M. Smith, why? I like good defenders on the bench, although if he can turn into a pinch hitter deluxe, there could be value, but I really don't get this signing.
Honorable mentions for this article: (1) Brach: Not expecting much from him this year. (2) Castro: If he can learn to throw strikes, he could be a real weapon. (3) Any of the returned pitchers from the Matz trade. Reid-Foley might help a little by being another arm for short stints, but not long term. The others are another year or more away.. .TBD.
Now for Alonso:
I kind of wish we could stop talking about Pete as "2019 Alonso" and "2020 Alonso". There is another story to look at, that being that he is a hitter prone to slumps:
If you look at the first 60 games after the All Star Break in 2019 against all 60 games of 2020, they are not too awfully different:
BA OBP SLG OPS
2019 First 60 after ASB 0.237 0.346 0.500 0.846
2020 All 60 0.231 0.326 0.490 0.817
Also, his 2020 was a tale of two hitters as well:
BA OBP SLG OPS
Games 1 thru 18 0.197 0.329 0.303 0.632
Games 19 thru 60 0.246 0.325 0.577 0.902
So his final 42 games of 2020, his OPS was over .900. If he can get off to a better start of the year, it will not look quite as bad. It is hard on the fans to watch a player bring the batting average (etc.) up from a really poor start.
His first 18 games after the ASB in 2019, he was 8 for 64 for a .125 average, seeing his batting average dive from .280 to .254 by August 1, with the OPS dropping from over 1.0 to .941.
He is a hot and cold hitter, prone to 60 to 80 at bat slumps. He will have them, as he had in both 2019 and 2020.
No, Pete didn't have a horrible year in 2020, he had a horrible 18 or so games, just like he did in 2019. It's just that 2020 was only 60 instead of 162 to make up for the long drought. I am not worried about him. He will be a .250+ hitter with OPS .900+ and 40+ homers over a 162 game season.
One last comment about David Peterson - we always forget that he was the 2017 Mets #1 draft pick, 20th overall. The guy SHOULD be a good pitcher, not just an mediocre minor leaguer they called up who luckily pitched pretty well over a 60 game season.
Yea, I understand his minor league track record is not expansive or exclusive and I personally need to keep reminding myself of his draft status and think he will he will be a very solid MLB pitcher. #20 picks should develop into decent #2 or 3 rotation guys as their floor. I look for better things from both Allan and Ginn in due time.
‘69, outstanding points on Alonso. I will keep an open mind.
Jimmy, I feel similarly about JD Davis that you do. Hope we are correct.
Remember 1969, great minds think alike. I did a very similar article on Pete for Monday, just saw your post. LOL. We approached it somewhat differently, so I will leave it as is for Monday.
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