Mack's spin -
If you follow either college ball of the draft, you know what happened here.
Hoglund was a solid upper top 10 pick in the upcoming draft until he went down with an injury that caused the need for Tommy John Surgey, but also robbed him of the remaining schedule this year, as well as all of 2021.
It's a risk at #23, but there is just too much talent in this arm to pass by.
RHP 6-5 210 Ole Miss
2020 Ole Miss stat line - 4-starts, 3-0, 1.16, 23.1-IP, 37-K
Final 2021 stat line - 11-starts, 4-2, 2.87, 62.2-IP, 96-K
5-20-21 - mlb
29. Dodgers: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi
He’d be a top 10 contender if not for his recent Tommy John surgery and there could be a number of teams in the second half of the first round who would be willing to have him rehab in their system.
5-18-21 - reviewing the brew -
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
This would be a somewhat risky move for the Brewers, but with potentially high upside. Prospects Live, in their Mock Draft 4.0, has the Brewers selecting Gunnar Hoglund out of Ole Miss. Recently, it was announced that Hoglund had suffered an elbow injury and underwent Tommy John surgery. He’s out until the middle of next season.
Prior to that injury, Hoglund was a consensus Top-10 talent, and getting him at 15th overall would present good value.
Hoglund has a very high floor with his strong command and solid pitch mix. He will be a starter going forward, but will the drop to 15th be good enough value for a guy who just underwent TJS? The Brewers will have to balance making safe choices to improve their farm system and taking some risks to get a chance at a top talent.
5-11-21 - Carlos Collazo @CarlosACollazo
Disappointing to hear that Ole Miss RHP Gunnar Hoglund will have to undergo Tommy John surgery with a UCL tear. He seemed like a pretty solid lock to go inside the top 10 picks. Arguably the best command in the 2021 draft class.
5-6-21 - MLB - 5-6 Mock Draft-
8. Rockies: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi
A Pirates supplemental first-round pick out of high school in 2018, Hoglund has kicked his stuff up a notch this spring and came back from missing a start with biceps stiffness two weeks ago to one-hit South Carolina for six innings last weekend.
4-26-21 - mlb.com mock draft -
13) Phillies: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi
Hoglund is the wild card of the week because of the missed start. If he bounces back fine, he likely doesn’t make it this far.
4-22-21 - pipeline podcast mock -
10) Mets (Mayo): Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi -- We’re talking a four-pitch mix from a 6-foot-4 frame here, with all his stuff ticking upward this spring.
4-19-21 - TTF - Mock 2.0 -
13. Philadelphia Phillies: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi
Scouts are torn if Hoglund will become a mid-rotation starter or an end-rotation starter. There are even those who think he’s destined for a reliever role. Most of his pitches are still maturing, and his velocity doesn’t seem to hit the upper 90s. At 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA this season, he’s making it hard for scouts to pigeon hole him.
4-2-21 - Through The Fence -
26. Minnesota Twins: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi
Scouts are torn if Hoglund will become a mid-rotation starter or an end-rotation starter. There are even those who think he’s destined for a reliever role. Most of his pitches are still maturing, and his velocity doesn’t seem to hit the upper 90s. While that isn’t a concern, he’ll have to become more of a technical pitcher to get outs.
3-30-21 - Prospects Worldwide -
7. RHP Gunnar Hoglund | School: Mississippi | B / T: L / R | Ht: 6’4 | Wt: 215lbs | Age: 21.6
Hoglund has a lot to like on the mound. What your buying into is Plus Command, good stuff, with ability to locate his entire arsenal in or out to L/R with ability to miss bats and high end projection. In his time at Mississippi, Hoglund has impressed and in the shortened 2020 season in 23.1 IP with a 37:4 K:BB and a 1.16 ERA. Working with a low effort delivery that should see some added velo down the line. An Above-average Fastball sitting 90-93 MPH T96 with a strong Vertical Approach Angle and ride up in the zone. Although he shows more tendencies working arm-side up in the zone with that heater, he shows good arm and glove-side command. His secondaries include an Above-average Slider with sharp bite and swing and miss tendencies that flashes plus often. And a Changeup to round out the arsenal. He ditched a Curveball for more usage on that Slider and seems to have been a smart move, Maybe that Curve makes a comeback at a later date. Hoglund has shown everything needed and then some to solidify himself in the first to start 2021. A strong floor as a mid-rotation arm with some upside to tap.
3-10-21 - draft risers -
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi (No. 23)
3 G, 17.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 28 K, 5 BB
If you just compare Hoglund’s box score stats to his first three games last year, he’s actually been a bit less successful in terms of preventing runs (three runs in 2020) albeit with similar strikeout and walk numbers (27 K, 4 BB).
While Hoglund has been bitten more by the long ball this season, with three homers allowed already, scouts are excited about the stuff coming out of his hand. After sitting around the 89-91 mph range a year ago, Hoglund’s fastball has mostly been in the 92-94 mph range through three starts this season and up to 96 at its best.
That uptick is encouraging, particularly when adding fastball velocity was the No. 1 item on Hoglund’s preseason to-do list. While Hoglund has mostly gone to his fastball/slider combination, scouts believe he has a four-pitch mix that is average or better across the board now with his added velocity. While there are pitchers in this class with bigger pure upside, Hoglund offers a reasonably high floor given his command and starter attributes.
2-22-21 - First Round Arms -
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi (No. 23)
Line: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 11 K (95 pitches)
Hoglund is arguably the best strike thrower in the class and for the first time in his collegiate career, he walked three batters in one game on Sunday against Texas Tech. Should we be concerned? Not really.
Hoglund showed the same advanced command that evaluators have become used to this weekend, but allowed a few walks mostly by nibbling around the zone and just missing the edges. He was hitting his spots with most of his pitches and doing a good job spotting his fastball at the bottom of the zone.
However, that nibbling did lead to an elevated pitch count earlier in the game, and he wound up with 95 pitches total—around 18 per inning. This is just the third time Hoglund has struck out double-digit batters in a game and scouts are looking to see more whiffs from him this season.
2-19-21 - Top 10 SEC Prospects -
10. Gunnar Hoglund, Ole Miss, P
Hoglund is in an odd spot with this list. Several players on this list are hoping to play their way into high MLB Draft slots and earn a huge signing bonus. Hoglund has already been there. In 2018, the Pirates drafted him 36th overall. The slot value for his draft spot (which usually provides a pretty fair estimate of the type of compensation in play) was just under $2 million. Hoglund turned it down to come to Oxford. In his second season with the Rebels, Hoglund was 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA when COVID shut down the season. With 37 strikeouts in 23 1/3 innings last year, there was little reason to think Hoglund won’t earn his way to a second offered million-dollar MLB payday in 2021.
2-15-21 - CBS - Top 50 -
20. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
Hoglund is the counterculturist's pitcher of choice in this class. He's a 6-foot-4 command-and-control artist whose collegiate walk rate (4.6 percent) is more descriptive than Turgenev. Although Hoglund's fastball often sits in the low-90s, the pitch has boring action that allows it to hop over bats up in the zone. It's possible that some crafty coach or instructor will find a way to milk extra oomph from his fastball. Should that happen, his strike-throwing ability and secondaries are good enough to give him a mid-rotation future. Otherwise, he's probably a No. 4.
Click here for the full list of Mack's MLB Draft Scouting Reports.
No comments:
Post a Comment