Mets fans watched in horror last week as Edwin Diaz suffered a freak knee injury during a relatively mild celebration on the mound following Puerto Rico’s WBC win against the Dominican Republic. Although many quickly reacted by calling for a ban of major league players in the WBC, this was an injury that could have happened stepping off a curb – it was not due to any undue stress from the game (that we know). It was one of those perfectly “Metsy” moments like those that are lamented in Devin Gordon’s book, “So many ways to lose”. It could only happen to the Mets.
This is an example of why you need to build depth into every position on a baseball team. This is why Steve Cohen and the Mets leadership have been working hard to do just that. Can you replace Edwin Diaz? No, just as you can’t replace Jacob deGrom. But you can position yourself to continue to win. Today’s post discusses the Mets’ bullpen this year and how Buck Showalter and Jeremy Hefner will try to best utilize the depth they have to grind out victories.
Who will close? Most of the voices in the media insist that David Robertson becomes the new closer. Those folks have a valid argument, as Robertson is very familiar with the role. He had 20 saves last year between his time with the Cubs and the Phillies, and he has 157 saves in his career. However, he is not the pitcher he used to be with the Yankees and White Sox, or the Phillies would have never let him go.
Robertson posted a 2.40 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP last year, which are much improved over his two prior seasons. So there is a probability for success but it is not a given. Who else could fill the role? Adam Ottavino was solid last year as Diaz’ set-up man, posting a 2.06 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP. Once again, great numbers, with significant improvement over his two prior seasons. With both pitchers, one has to wonder whether they had a breakthrough moment or a positive glitch in their performance – time will tell. At least there are two very capable players to fill the role.
Who will set up? If not Robertson or Ottavino, the Mets can possibly look to newcomer Brooks Raley who had a career year with Tampa last year. He recorded 6 saves while pitching to a 2.68 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP in 2022. Raley is 34 years old, so he joins several Mets pitchers who are beginning to get mail from AARP.
The Mets can also call the number of Drew Smith. Smith has had flashes of brilliance in the pen over the last few years, but has not maintained consistent performance. Smith With the left-handed Raley and the right-handed Smith, the Mets could have some real versatility if they can both pitch healthy and with the talent that each has shown.
Who will go long? This was an easier question to answer before Jose Quintana got hurt. Both David Peterson and Tylor Megill were promising “next up” players for the starting rotation, and it made sense that one or both would break camp with the MLB team and be their long reliever to keep them stretched out. However, when Quintana went down, it became very likely that one of the two – probably Peterson – will become the fifth starter. The other goes to long relief or finds regular work with AAA Syracuse.
There is also a case for the Mets to begin the year with a six man rotation to reduce the stress on their aging starters’ arms in the early season. If they do, count on Megill to be number six, and then the Mets will have to move to Joey Lucchesi as their long man.
Who are the wild cards? The Mets brought in Eleiser Hernandez from Miami during the offseason. Hernandez is a pitcher who at his best gets lots of strikeouts and soft contact ground balls. At his worst, he is a fly ball pitcher with a scary number of them landing beyond the fence. His trial this spring did not produce strong results, so it is most likely that he will throw in the minors until he can make appropriate adjustments.
The other big wild card is Bryce Montes de Oca. He has one of the most exciting fastballs in the Mets camp with a velocity well into triple digits and pitch movement that raises eyebrows. Unfortunately he has not been able to control that movement yet, so he has too high a walk rate to pitch in critical situations. The Mets had a guy in 1969 named Nolan Ryan that featured high velocity and good movement but walked too many batters. We can only hope that the Mets current pitching coaches can right this ship and not give up on de Oca.
There are many more arms in the Mets organization, and as the rosters shape up, we will provide some previews of the AAA and AA staffs with an eye to what future Mets we can expect to see.
3 comments:
The pen will be the Achilles Heel for this team this season
Someone needs to step up big time
My guess is Drew Smith
Bryce MDO had me excited until the injury. Now, who knows?
If healthy, his extreme K rate and non-existent HR rate was a positive weight that I thought would easily outweigh his control issue: a Trevor May, only better. But the extreme velocity and movement may make him a hire health risk pitcher.
Edwin’s loss is devastating. I still think that without him last year, they win 88-90, not 101, games.
MDO tries to throw too hard! He will break down every so often.McGill is the same thing.
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