Reese Kaplan -- More Thoughts on 2027 Roster Decisions

The interesting thing about the Mets right now is the carousel of unknown players entering and exiting as the team uses the remainder of August and September to get to know who may or may not be a part of the team’s future.  Many decisions will need to be made between now and the start of 2027 baseball (if a strike allows the season to take place). 

The first big decision, of course, is outfielder Luis Robert.  When he’s good he’s a stellar defender, decent speed, home run power and dynamic player on the field and at the plate.  The problem is that he is not healthy most of the time and is slated to earn $20 million next season for below Mendoza line hitting and more time on the IL than on the field. 

For his career Robert is a .255 hitter with about 21 HRs and 62 RBIs per season to go along with 20 SBs.  Paired with Gold Glove level defense that seems desirable.  The problem is that he’s been in the majors for parts of seven seasons and has only had 500 ABs in one of them. 

Keeping Luis Robert in 2027 is indeed expensive but the Mets do have a $2 million buyout option they could choose to exercise.  The $18 million savings could be put into addressing other team needs and the club could go into the season with the outfield of Juan Soto, A.J. Ewing and Carson Benge as they have for many games this year. 

The three expensive pitchers returning are going to be very difficult to trade away without paydown of their salaries or accompanying them with some prime minor league talent.  This tris includes starter Sean Manaea, closer Devin Williams and apparently now reliever Kodai Senga.  In order they earn $25 million, $13.7 million (most deferred and counting as $5 million against payroll), and $15 million respectively.  There’s no way to justify Manaea’s paycheck.  Williams is more appropriate and if he can rediscover his Milwaukee self he’s a relative bargain at that price.  Senga is a challenging one.  If he is a short reliever in a setup role he’s overpriced.  If he’s a starter he’s acceptably priced if the good Senga emerges once again. 

Rumors started that Bichette wants to return to the Mets and expects them to be significantly better next season.  That’s good news and bad news.  If he returns to his career norms then he is an expensive but high quality hitter with defensive challenges.  The Mets most definitely need bats, so having him back is not a bat thing at all.

At second base, however, the Mets need to make a decision.  Can they restructure Semien’s deal to keep him around as a backup and veteran presence or will they again trot him out every day with a few straight years of poor performance as the regular second baseman?  If the utility role evolves then they likely need to look outside the organization unless they feel Ronny Mauricio is finally going to be healthy and productive.  Obviously Brett Baty is not the answer at second base.

First base continues to be a lost cause.  Jorge Polanco could play there if healthy, but that if comes with an awful lot of hesitation.  He’s not hitting at all and the health issues continue, but at his pay rate he’s going to be back again unless they pay down 25 to 30% of his salary in a trade.  Even if they did that no one emerges as a quality starter.

However, the real issue for this team is going to be its bullpen.  Assuming Williams is back and Senga remains, there is not a whole lot else there worth trotting out to the mound to hold leads.  Dedniel Nunez is a healing work in progress but beyond him it’s a bunch of pitchers with ill health or limited experience.  Expect some new faces to arrive. 

Right now the 2027 roster is not fully known and its potential for success is going to depend as much on health and productivity as it is on the yet unnamed manager who will lead them.