Credit where credit is due...
Prospects 1500 does an excellent job at ranking the top 50 prospects for each of the 30 MLB teams. I guess when baseball eventually goes to 32 teams, they will have to change their name to Prospects 1560, though. Quite the conundrum.
Anyway, I had not gone through a Mets top 50 this year before now, in part because the bottom 10 or so of those 50 involve so much guesswork.
But since P 1500 did a Mets top 50, I thought through how I would comparatively rank mine (right column) as compared to theirs (left column). Let me know where you think we're both wrong - or right.
PROSPECTS 1500 |
BRENNAN
COMPARISON |
1. Francisco Alvarez*, C, 21, MLB |
Agreed
# 1 |
2. Brett Baty*, 3B/OF, 23, MLB |
Agreed
# 2 |
3. Ronny Mauricio*, SS, 21, Double-A |
#
4 Behind Parada |
4. Kevin Parada, C, 21, Single-A |
#
3, ahead of Mauricio |
5. Alex Ramirez, OF, 19, Single-A |
Agreed
# 5 |
6. Jett Williams, SS, 19, Rookie (FCL) |
Agreed
# 6 |
7. Blade Tidwell, RHP, 21, Single-A |
He’s
my # 8 |
8. Dominic Hamel, RHP, 23, Single-A |
He’s
my # 9 |
9. Mark Vientos*, 1B/3B, 23, MLB |
He’s my # 7 –
based on at times huge HR rate |
10. Calvin Ziegler, RHP, 20, Single-A |
Agreed # 10 |
11. Matt Allan, RHP, 21, Single-A |
Written
before his latest surgery – now my # 35 |
12. Mike Vasil, RHP, 22, Single-A |
Due
to Allan injury, bumps to # 11; Mike GOOD |
13. Jose Butto*, RHP, 24, MLB. |
Bumped
to # 12 |
14. Joel Diaz, RHP, 18, Single-A |
Bumped
to # 13 – young and talented |
15. Nick Morabito, OF, 19, Rookie (FCL). |
Bumped to # 14:
bad brief 2022 debut; happens |
16. Jacob Reimer, 3B, 18, Rookie (FCL) |
Bumped
to # 15 |
17. Willy Fanas, OF, 18, Rookie (DSL) |
Bumped
to # 16 |
18. Simon Juan, OF, 17, Rookie (DSL) |
Tied at # 22
after his weak 2022 DSL hitting |
19. Jesus Baez, SS/3B, 17, Rookie (DSL) |
Bumped Jesus to #
17 Bryce
Montes de Oca at # 18 |
20. Eric Orze, RHP, 25, Triple-A |
Hi K reliever
(136 in 100 career IP): agree # 20 |
21. Wyatt Young, 2B/SS, 23, Triple-A |
Wonderful-in-2022 Wyatt Young up at # 19 |
22. JT Schwartz, 1B/3B, 23, Single-A |
Agreed - # 22 –
love to see more JT pop in ‘23 |
23. Grant Hartwig, RHP, 25, Triple-A |
I like Hartwig at
# 21 – a fine 2022 |
24. Zach Greene*, RHP, 26, Triple-A |
I’m OK with # 23
for the ex-Yankee prospect |
25. Javier Atencio, LHP, 21, Single-A |
I’m OK with # 24 |
26. Christian Scott, RHP, 23, Single-A |
Bad Arizona – I am
dropping him to # 36 |
27. Luis Rodriguez, LHP, 19, Rookie (FCL) |
No 2022, so I
drop him to # 37 |
28. Daniel Juarez, LHP, 22, Single-A |
Fine 2022, so I
have him at # 26 |
29. Stanley Consuegra, OF, 22, Single-A |
Stan the Man I
have at # 25 |
30. Bryce Montes de Oca*, RHP, 26, MLB |
I moved Bryce up
to # 18
(s/b even higher); Jordany Ventura comes up to # 30 |
31. Omar De Los Santos, OF, 23, Single-A |
I’ll leave him at
31, but HIGH Ks a real danger |
32. Junior Santos, RHP, 21, Single-A |
Like Junior at #
27 – but he’s gotta do better |
33. Khalil Lee*, OF, 25, MLB |
Pushed him to # 40 –
fans too much, & issues |
34. Hayden Senger, C, 25, Triple-A |
I like Senger at
# 29; OK catcher, decent bat |
35. Jordany Ventura, RHP, 22, Single-A |
I like Ventura at
# 30; injured Allan down to 35 |
36. Robert Dominguez, RHP, 20, Rookie (FCL) |
I like Dominguez
at ## 32; Scott moves to # 36 |
37. D’Andre Smith, SS/2B, 21, Single-A |
Smith works for
me at # 33; L Rod down to # 37. |
38. Jose Peroza, 2B/3B, 22, Single-A |
Jose is my # 28,
and I feel that is conservative |
39. Daison Acosta, RHP, 24, Single-A |
Acosta I am good
with at # 39 (strong 2nd half) |
40. Josh Walker, LHP, 28, Triple-A |
JW at # 34 after
his 51 Ks in 32 IP; Lee # 40 |
41. Kevin Kendall, 2B/SS, 23, Single-A |
Kendall impressed
me in 2022, so # 38 & rising |
42. Carlos Cortes, 2B/OF, 25, Triple-A |
Sad to push Cortes to #41; his 2022 was bad. Junior
Tilien slots
in at # 42. He showed a lot in 2022 at a young age - I
got 3-HR-in-a-game Junior up at # 42 (he had 2 HRs in a game also). Two game wonder or future stud? Time will tell. |
Two game 43. Nick Meyer, C, 25, Triple-A |
Nick drops to my
# 43, due due to weak bat |
44. Joander Suarez, RHP, 22, Single-A |
# 46 is my guess |
45. Jawilme Ramirez, RHP, 21, Single-A |
Don’t know, so #
47 is my guess; slotting into # 45 instead is Layonel
Ovalles, who fanned 66 in 46 IP as
a 19 year old in the low minors. |
46. Dangelo Sarmiento, 2B/SS 17 Rookie DSL |
Don’t know, so #
48 is my guess |
47. Cristofer Gomez, RHP, 19, Rookie (DSL) |
Don’t know, so #
49 is my guess |
48. Yohairo Cuevas, 1B/OF, 19, Rookie (DSL) |
Don’t know, so # 50
is my guess |
49. William Lugo, INF, 21, Single-A |
Solid 2022 year; I got
him at # 44, conservatively |
50. Jaylen Palmer, 3B/OF, 22, Single-A |
# 50 is now Cuevas. Dropping Palmer just
outside of top 50 – maybe he will solve his brutal K issue. He has to, or he's gone. Big year-to-year drop. Another high ranked guyin 2022, Sherveyn Newton, is now with KCR system, and he is NOT in their top 50. |
Prospects 1500 went heavily with longer term prospect
outlooks – I tend to weight more recent performance, so even though I put Bryce
Montes de Oca at # 18, I’d normally have him more around # 13. That’s cool, though.
As I do these lists year in, year out, one thing I find
to be true….DO NOT OVERVALUE HIGH STRIKEOUT HITTERS! They always drop
precipitously down the list in subsequent years, because they almost never fix
the problem…so if Omar De Los Santos reads this, take heed – it is what
happens. Fix your Ks, job # 1 in 2023.
Final Note: Prospects 1500 has our top two guys as Tier 1 guys (future All Stars) and the next 7 as Tier 2 (solid future major league careers). By comparison Kansas City has ZERO Tier 1's and just 5 Tier 2's, so the Mets' system is in fine shape, despite shedding guys like Crow and Endy Rodriguez, who are Tier 1s with the Cubs and Pittsburgh, respectively. Had we kept those 2, best Mets prospect year ever?
All we are saying, is give Mark a chance:
Mark Vientos on Monday led the entire majors in the number of at bats. He can’t complain about not getting an opportunity. And on Saturday, he sent a thank you note, hitting 2 homers that combined traversed 900 feet - 430 + 470, AND a 109 MPH single. That didn’t just happen by chance. Chances are, you understand that.
Bryce Montes de Oca Update:
2 hitless, scoreless innings, 4 Ks, 2 walks. That projects over 80 innings to no runs, no hits, 80 walks, 160 Ks. I will accept nothing less in 2023.
Seriously, though, over his last 29 innings (MLB and AAA), 57 Ks. Just stating it for the record. That means 30 outs in 29 innings that weren’t strikeouts. How he let those 30 put the ball in play, I will never know.
Interested in Team Finances, anyone?
Pat Ragazzo SNY gave a nice high level picture here:
7 comments:
10 very short days to St Pattys Day, when there is a big parade. Will there also be a big parade in early November. That would be an outstanding birthday present.
My first colonoscopy in 8 years yesterday. The Mets sucked when I had my last one. I got a tap on the arm, and I asked, have you started yet? And I was told, oh, we’re finished. Nice nap. Apparently my plumbing is fine. Next time, though, a real doctor, not a plumber.
Come to Savannah for SPD
Get drunk then get arrested
I am very pleased that Vientos has hit the ball hard in spring training this year. His brief stint in MLB last year did not go very well, and that can weigh on your confidence. He does have to work on K rate, though to maximize his opportunity. Hope that comes with more experience with good pitching.
Nice job Tom
Looks like your not far off with others opinions
But very true about high K hitters
Eddie
Eddie, thanks. Hope all is well.
Paul, with Vientos, first 18 reg season ABs a nerve-wracking 1 for 18, followed by a deep breath 5 for 18. He looks relaxed and happy and said his goal is to play in every single game for the Mets. That won’t happen, but we’ll see how Billy the Kid approaches putting him on the roster Day 1.
Mack, i turn 70 in November, and if I come down there and streak, I am still fast for my age.
But you will bat. 210
thanks so much for this, Tom...well done.
you had indicated earlier that you would
take a crack at what affiliates these
prospects might be assigned to for 2023.
Looking forward to that...NICKEL7168
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