A Jaylen Palmer picture posted by Mack when Palmer was drafted.
Jaylen Palmer has tools.
Fast.
Athletic.
He also strikes out an absolute ton.
Objectively, he had a very bad season. He hit .173.
He fanned 183 times in 120 games and 464 plate appearances (PAs).
In other words, he fanned in 40% of his PAs. 40%.
He played at 3 levels in 2023.
He hit poorly in Brooklyn. As in .167. Fanned a ton.
He got promoted and hit poorly in Binghamton. As in .143. Fanned a ton.
He nonetheless got promoted to Syracuse, too, which was puzzling since he hit poorly, and fanned a ton, in Brooklyn and Binghamton. I surmise that the organization was trying to eliminate holes in the AA lineup in anticipation of an Eastern Division title run, which fell just short of success, in large part due to enhanced team hitting.
He started out poorly for Syracuse. Hitting .172 on Sept 12. Fanning a ton.
But...
In his last 11 games, he walked 11 times, was hit by a pitch, went 11 for 35 with 4 HRs, and cut his strikeouts down to 14. So, in his last 47 plate appearances, he got on base 23 times, a very impressive rate.
He hit .250 in his 21 games in AAA, with 6 HRs and a .594 slug %, shocking me, frankly. Maybe you, too.
He's fast, steals a lot of bags (82 of 99 over the past 3 years), and plays good D in the outfield and passably in the infield.
Is he a late bloomer who is suddenly starting to figure out how to not strike out as much in September?
Might one more minor league season do the trick?
I've never seen a guy with huge K #s in the minors transform to become a MLB player. Especially a guy drafted in 2018, who now has been to the plate 1,766 times as a pro.
Maybe Jaylen can be the one to pull it off, as unlikely as that seems.
2024, presumably, will tell the tale, assuming they even bring him back.
After all, 11 great final games does not a season make.
On the flip side, let’s compare him to a super-contact guy:
Rhylan Thomas may not have Palmer’s speed or power, but in 2023, he fanned just a Tony Gwynn-like 28 times in 346 PAs, a mere 8% K rate, and all that additional contact led to an average for Thomas that was 155 points higher than Palmer’s in 2023.
In baseball: Contact Matters. All Contact Matters.
To emphasize the disparity between the two, Palmer had 118 more plate appearances than Thomas. If Thomas had gotten up 118 more times and fanned all 118 of those times, he would still have fanned 37 fewer times than Palmer did. Mind-boggling.
If I could keep just one, I’m keeping the Tony Gwynn guy.
ATLANTA HITTERS ARE A BUNCH OF SLUGS:
301 homers and a staggering .501 team slugging % through 157 games.
By comparison, the great David Wright’s career slug % is .491. SMH.
METS SPLIT A TWINKIE:
11-2 win, 4-2 loss to the Marlenes. Pete had 4 hits in game one & 1 HBP.
Joey Lucchesi is 4-0, 2.89 in 47 innings…nothing wrong with that, huh?
Francisco Lindor was the star of the night, hitting three homers in the doubleheader to join the 30-30-30 club. Nice job! (Homers, doubles, steals).
Senga surpassed 200 Ks (WOW), as he continued to emulate David Cone.
But the pen blew game # 2.
Vientos homered (9), but otherwise, the Baby Mets hit like a bunch of babies.
And Baby, that’s all I’ve got to say for today.
Except I did note though that Dom Smith has hit more HRs lately, but his RBIs were really low. Looked, and in 118 at bats with RISP, .178 with 2 doubles and one HR. How bad is that? In 574 Nationals plate appearances in 2022-23, he has 44 RBIs. Pete Alonso by comparison had 46 RBIs in just April and May this year. Still thrilled Smith is gone.
23 comments:
For me, what stood out from the Baby Mets was Baty’s misplay in the ninth inning. It’s obvious that the young man is having some growing pains and certainly needs the game to slow down for him. In all fairness, Lindor last week with the infield in had a misplay that cost them a game, but Baty took his eye off the ball and he booted it badly. Too, he isn’t hitting. He needs a reboot this winter and maybe a sports psychologist.
Gus, cannot disagree.
Of course, if Baty followed Canha to Milwaukee, he’d probably become an instant star. Less pressure.
Morning guys
1. Can't add more on Palmer
IMO
The best thing he has done professionally is pose for that picture
2. It looks like that the Mets will not go into the lottery as the 6th worse
Probably 7th
The sad part is this will increase the odds that they will not get the 6th pick in the draft...
But they will also be reduced in bonus money they can offer
3. A lot of chatter recently on the possibility of either Ohtani or Soto becoming a Met next season
Age... med history... clubhouse chemistry
Plus the loss of prospects that would be needled in a trade for Soto
My thoughts?
Both these guys are superstars in this game
Name me one Mets prospect currently in the minor league chain that is or projects as a superstar player?
Lastly doesn't having depth in the chain mean you have multiple players showing promise at the same position.
When did they ever let 2 players play the same time at any position
I love the history of baseball and looking at stats from days gone by. In regard to strikeout numbers, Tris Speaker struck out 393 times TOTAL in 22 seasons. That's like 17 K's a season. Ridiculous
Hi Tom,
When are you going to rank the Mets prospects? The last time you did this was before the July draft and a lot has changed since then.
Raw, probably will start re-rank in a few weeks. Thanks for asking.
Mack, agreed. Superstars who stay healthy are far more valuable than a few decent prospects
So…DJ Stewart plays great, wins the Mets a few games, impacts their draft position, now, will he fade to oblivion in 2024?
O.K. who do u trade for Soto and when do we get to the point, like Atlanta, when the prospects we bring up hit the ground running? Baby Mets ALL have alot of improving to do and having quality players in the farm to push them is crucial.
Me?
First I would need a verbal that he will sign an extension
If he agrees I would offer
Kevin Parada
Drew Gilbert
Paul Gervase
If it were me, I'd target Soto over Ohtani. Net year Soto will be 25. Can't believe he's that young still. Agree with Mack about a verbal commitment to sign long term. Ohtani is an amazing player, but the surgery makes me wary.
Tom,
Wouldn't Jaylen Palmer been a good candidate for the Arizona Fall League to see IF he might be a late bloomer?
Soto does have that youth advantage. I’d take Mack’s offer, which means it isn’t strong enough.
I'm strongly against long-term commitments of 10 years or more. For that reason I'd pass on Soto.
Oh boy,Soto on the radar! People are saying Allvarez and Baty is the. Starting point.
That sounds like a. Good offer to me. But rather give up money for Ohtani and keep those prospects that go for one year of Soto.
Apesquat, you want an ultra low strikeout Hall of Famer, Joe Sewell is your guy. “Over nearly 145 years of professional baseball, no player was tougher to strike out than Hall of Fame shortstop Joe Sewell. In 7,132 career at-bats, Sewell heard the umpire say “Strike three” just 114 times.” Check out his amazing #s.
Contrary opinion here - I am not on the Soto bandwagon.
When he was 19 years old, slugging 34 home runs and 110 RBI the whole baseball world had him as the next superstar in baseball. That got him a reputation like a Trout or a Harper.
In my opinion that never materialized. He has never reached that level of productivity again though his second half surge this season have yielded great numbers. But last year he hit .276 and did not impress in the field. He has peaked, and would not be worth the 10 year, half billion dollar deal that this market and his reputation would demand. I would rather see him underperform to expectations in Texas than with the Mets.
Yes, we still need a productive bat in the lineup with numbers like he has this year, but not for the money it will take. That just robs us of the opportunity to land the pitching that is required just to compete in the NL East.
Paul, take a look at Soto’s home v. Away stats. Much better out of SD and on the road. He walks incredibly much.
And after a lousy April, he has hit very well.
And in 33 career games in Citi, .339/.460/.705.
Get him, and bring the fences in for him, Pete, Francisco I and II. I’d be OK with that.
They will have to pay Soto so much to come here that they won't be able to afford the union carpenters to move the wall! :)
Paul, very true. Stearns will have to sort that out.
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