11/16/24

Reese Kaplan -- What If Things Don't Proceed As Planned?


So there are folks who figure the Mets are off on a neo-Steinbrenner spending spree to catapult them into the first division of competitive baseball team.  There are others who are more about moderation wherein the club signs a few key pieces or trades for them, expects productivity from existing players and awaits promotions from the minors of the top rated prospects when needed due to injury or big team performance problems.  Both approaches are interesting and perhaps valid, but let’s take a look at the third option.

Back in the post-Madoff Wilpon era the Mets refused to spend money because frankly they didn’t have the capital available.  That situation is not parallel to 2025 as the Mets are clearing payroll responsibilities larger than some other teams’ entire payrolls.  No, the Mets have the money to spend if desired and there are some contract swaps that could be done in the trade market.  However, things don’t always go as you expect.

Right now the club is rumored (and that’s the key word) to be interested in bringing both Sean Manaea and Luis Severino back to the starting rotation.  If accomplished, it would give the men a known top five of Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino.  Considering they went virtually all of 2024 without Senga and most of 2024 with Megill bouncing back and forth between Citifield and Syracuse, that staff is likely better than what was already playing in 2024 with 32 starts from Kodai Senga added to the mix as well as a full season of David Peterson.


However, there’s a pair of big ifs in this approach.  What if one of the 29 other teams offered Sean Manaea more years or more money than the Mets were planning to put into a contract?  Do you still go after him given Steve Cohen’s deep pockets or do you draw a line in the sand and say there’s a limit?

The same question arises about Luis Severino whose greatest attribute this past season was health.  The 3.91 ERA is not terrible but it’s not the metric of a superstar pitcher either.  Yes, there’s something to be said for knowing that certain pitchers can play in New York and Severino has done it for both teams here, but at the same time his injury history and overall performance metrics suggest he is a decent third or fourth starter who should not be paid as a first or second.  Again, what is the line in the sand?

To continue this speculation and pessimism, what happens if in other positions of need like the bullpen, the outfield and Pete Alonso that the club doesn’t find anyone doing cartwheels at the prospect of joining the Mets?  

Blink for a minute and think that right now if you lose out on Alonso’s power and you’re starting to think the 2025 team could show up with Mark Vientos at 1B, a fight between Luisangel Acuna and Jeff McNeil for 2B, Francisco Lindor at SS and a fight between Ronny Mauricio and Brett Baty for 3B.  

Francisco Alvarez will be behind the plate but then you have Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte in the outfield while Tyrone Taylor recovers.  That’s a mighty thin team offense. 


So what is the plan if the prices become well beyond reason?  Do you swallow hard and pay them or do you try to make do with the aforementioned mix while hoping for fast development in upstate New York?  

I’m not trying to rain on anyone’s Saturday parade, but there is no guarantee that Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Alex Bregman, Teoscar Hernandez nor any other top notch talents are guaranteed to be coming to Citifield.  Just consider both extremes of what could or might happen and then try to figure out that midrange position which is neither overly optimistic nor overly glum.  

17 comments:

Steve said...

Even in spite of Steve's dollars, players may want to play elsewhere. Reality. There needs to be plan Bs and Cs when developing the team. I would bet Stearns has these plans.
Most of those top talents you listed in the last paragraph have concerns of some kind. With the goal of continually playing meaningful October games, are they really worth the years and dollars they are looking for?
Signing one, let alone two players with qualifying offers will destroy the next draft. The picks the Mets would receive if someone signs one of their qualifying offered players does not offset the losses.
I remember that the top prospects did not perform well but I would believe they still have value. There are some trades to be had out there. Could the trade of a prospect for international bonus money be made to increase the amount to be offered a certain pitcher be a smart out of the box move? It has been written elsewhere he may be interested in endorsement money as well. Where else but NYC?

Steve said...

Some of the trade proposal s seem plausible. Hurt the prospect pool but... Crochet added with Senga, Peterson and Manaea doesn't seem all that bad. Roberts, Jr. in center seems to be a good upgrade.
Can a prospect be traded for international bonus money to increase the amount to be offered to some pitcher? Said pitcher is written to be interested in endorsement opportunities as well. Where else but New York? Great second half of the season callup with Sprout?

Mack Ade said...

Okay

Let's consider that the Mets strike.out on three pitchers and, not only not dign anyone, but also lose Alonso and Manaea

What's left for opening day?

1B. Vientos
2B. McNeil
SS. Lindor
3B. Baty
C. Alvarez
LF. Nimmo
CF. Acuña
RF. Marte
SP1. Senga
SP2. Peterson
SP3. Megill
SP4. TBD
SP5. TBD

Tom Brennan said...

Reality will be that Cohen money talks. But can it talk enough to win this year's team rebuild? Keep also in mind that this team has a real dearth in pitching in the minors. That will be an impediment. You want to see some scary stats? Look at Dom Hamel's road stats in 2024. Using him as an example, he may be a stopgap reliever in 2025 getting 10 Mets innings. It is THIN down there. It would greatly help if Sproat shakes off his rough AAA debut and is MLB ready by Memorial Day. 35 pitchers used by the Mets last season.

Jjgmdpc said...

Look, no matter what we do we won’t field a team that can compete with LA and a potential pitching staff of Ohtani, Yamamoto, Sasaki, Glasnow, Kershaw and probably Beuhler. Only Sproat had a decent year and he hit a brick wall at Syracuse, otherwise our top 30 prospects were either injured or had poor years. Gilbert, Tidwell, Acuna, Houk, Parada, Ramirez and even Clifford all dropped in rankings and have little trade value. Sign Snell and Manea. Sign Scott and Estevez. If Soto signs elsewhere keep Alonso(I hope it’s not Philly). Use Cohen money and a low level prospect to get Bellinger from Cubs. Santander or Hernandez for right field. Not an World Series team, but a playoff team.

TexasGusCC said...

If the Mets miss out in the top players, I hope they can reset the Tax. Did anyone realize that Paul Goldschmidt had a better OPS the second half than Pete Alonso did? Why are we automatically moving Vientos and not giving the kid a chance?

How do y’all feel about putting Mauricio in CF in Syracuse and telling him that’s his new position? The Pirates are moving O’Neal Cruz and Padres’ Merrill used to be a SS. I’ve seen Mauricio range and he can glide for popups quite a ways.

Lastly, is there interest in taking Benintendi’s contract of three years left at $15MM per year to knock down the ask on Crochet?

Tom Brennan said...

Gus, do what it takes to get Crochet. You hardly ever win without stars.

And yes, Mauricio s/b in the outfield. I think DP pivots at 2nd base and incoming slides to break up double plays are a high MCL risk, given his injury history. In the outfield, also, he should be able to stay in single digits in errors. He has speed to get to balls and a strong arm, just avoid collisions and walls.

TexasGusCC said...


Sorry, Benintendi is $17MM, $17MM, and $15MM for three more years, and he will play as a 30 year old next season.

Tom Brennan said...

I can only imagine how many permutations and combinations of possible acquisitions Stearns and his staff have to consider as deals start flying. He has so many decisions to make, and other clubs will compete hard for the same talent.

Mack Ade said...

Gus

The Mets seem to have plenty of potential centerfielders. Key word is potential.


Mauricio uses a glove like a weapon.

Future DH at best

TexasGusCC said...

No Mack, the Mets don’t have real CF prospects outside of Gilbert and Williams. There’s a reason Acuna only played 9 games out there in Syracuse and honestly, I don’t know about Williams. But, I’ve seen Mauricio and believe he can do it. His 20/20 potential is something few could match.

Mack Ade said...

Gus -

What about Morabito and Benge?

TexasGusCC said...

I thought of Marabito, but he is considered a fourth outfielder. Beige is a few years away. Should we avoid a 20/20 CF until then? We can always “Moolie Betts” him and move him back to the infield, or trade him.

TexasGusCC said...

Besides, let Benge show that he’s better.

TexasGusCC said...

Per MMN:
“ Luisangel Acuña had a big night in the Venezuelan Winter League, going 3-for-5 at the plate with a double while scoring two runs and stealing three bases.”

TexasGusCC said...

Also, Mets fired their AAA hitting coach and AA hitting coach. Thank God!

TexasGusCC said...

Check this out, LOL: sports hysteria!
https://www.mlb.com/news/paul-skenes-pirates-debut-patch-card-offer