MACK - MY Sunday Observations

 

Good morning.

Today, we shift from defense to pitcher injuries. Major League Baseball recently issued a 62-page study where they observed and documented pitcher injuries.

Pitchers that were targets were ones that had both higher velocity and overall talent while exerting maximum effort more often, both in-game and in non-game situations.

( https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/43026688/mlb-study-identifies-factors-rise-pitching-injuries ) -

Over 200 experts were interviewed for this study. They included:      

Former professional pitchers, orthopedic surgeons, athletic trainers, club officials, biomechanists, player agents, amateur baseball stakeholders, and other experts in pitcher development.

You walk away from this study with the following results:      

1.     Chasing velocity is the No. 1 contributing factor to pitching injuries

2.     Tracking pitchers during the season was easy to do

3.     Doing the same during the off-season wasn’t

4.     Injuries spike during the spring, leading to speculation that not many pitchers come to camp properly prepared for the next season

5.     Another off-season concern is pitchers that overwork themselves, specifically working on new pitches.

6.     Regarding speed, the average increase in fastball velocity has completely paralleled the increased incidence of injury

7.     Concern for including horizontal and vertical break and spin rate makes one wonder how much new obsession there is to analytics.

8.     Major league pitchers didn’t seem to take these issues seriously and risked injuries using dangerous pitches because they thought that the reward of using those pitches totally outweighed any risks.

9.     This same kind of dangerous pitching happened in the minors.

10. The belief is pitching at a major league level throws all the concern for injuries in the trash bin.

11. Pitchers that know they won’t pitch many innings tend to use maximum effort, leading to future injuries.

12. Moreover, reduced usage could contribute to injuries.

13. Found a trend that minor league pitchers were not properly prepared for the rigors of a major league grind (workload,  innings limits, more rest between appearances).

14. Minor league pitchers are not being properly exposed to ‘back-to-back’ performances.

15. There seems to be a deemphasis of concern for cardiovascular and endurance training for pitchers.

16. Instead, the training is more in the form of "power-and strength-focused training".

17. There is too much heavy lifting and far less anaerobic training than in the past.

18. Pitcher injury history can be a predictor for future injury.

19. More players are becoming susceptible to another injury as they climb the amateur and professional ranks.

20. Pitchers out of the draft have been pitching year-round. Early round pitchers have been doing this for three years. The wear and tear on their pitching arms starts there, not in the majors.

21. It is inconclusive if the recent rules changes contribute less or more towards injuries.

22. There is no evidence that the new pitch count is a factor here; however, slowing the game down may contribute to more injuries since the pitcher has more time to focus to throwing at maximum effort pitch after pitch.

23. Early season or spring training injured list placements points to the pitch clock having little to do with injuries.

24. COVID may have had a lasting impact on pitchers.

25. Changes in training routines may have helped spike injuries over the past three seasons.

26. Regarding surgeries, there are “incorrect perceptions" of surgery may provide a false sense of security for players.

27. Pitchers might be willing to risk it all, thinking surgery can always create an opportunity to come back as strong, or even more.

28. This is especially true when it comes to Tommy John Surgery. Pitchers seem to be willing to sacrifice their elbows because of their belief that this procedure can fix it, especially quicker than in the past.

29. The addition of the new internal brace doesn’t seem to be helping.

30. Fact – 20% of pitchers that have TJS never make it back.

31. Emphasis on speed or addition of junk pitches, at an early age, contributes to youth injuries.

32. People get stronger… ligaments don’t.

33. Youth pitchers actually rip the bone off their elbow due to the growth plate being weaker than the ligament.

 

Jerry Blevins        @jerryblevins

This is the main reason why I never started doing the newest training for velocity. I knew I could pitch MLB level with my velocity and have minimal arm issues. I was worried that if I added velocity, my body couldn’t maintain a 162-game season.

 

Me?

This is a lot to take in. It’s great to see that this is being studied. Now, you are going to have to find some young pitcher and tell him he no longer can throw as hard as he can.

How many years have I been harping on this? Chasing velo and middle field defense.

Did you ever wonder if a pitcher can’t keep up his speed into the third time around the lineup, how in the hell is he supposed to keep it up after thirty years old?

Sure there are many exceptions, but the fact remains that there is a sizable percentage of young pitchers that do nothing more than attempt to hit the 100 mark, simply burn out in less than five years.

One of my favorite pitches was a fairly fast one that a pitcher would thrown towards the body of the batter, but at the last few moments it would come back into the edges of the zone. Totally unhittable. Always called a strike. Mike Pelfrey used to throw it early on in his career.

I have no idea how fact it went… maybe 90… but it could have been 60 and it still wouldn’t have been able to be hit.

Look at Roki Sasaki. He throws two pitches… fast and faster.

So far he has missed more than half of the 2023 season to an oblique injury (throwing only 91 innings), missed most of the 2024 season with a right arm injury (threw only 111 innings), and had his velocity drop from 98.9 to 96.9.

And yet the baseball world now considers him the second coming of Bob Gibson.

Sometimes I see very little of the game I grew up with.

 

Analytic Facts –

Luisangel Acuña.

Had a max exit velo of 109.8 in 2024 on 136 ML pitches.

Actually ticked up from his 109.6 in the minors in 2024

Below average O-Swing%

Tripled his AAA barrel% up to 9.1% with the Mets.

95th percentile sprint speed

Put up 3 full OAA at SS/2B in limited defensive time

 Jett Williams

Looked like one of the best batters in the minors, though it was a minimal 112 pitch role.

Had one of the lowest chase rates in all of MiLB (O-Swing%)

But also one of the lowest in-zone swing rates (Z-Swing%).

26.7% walk rate

.533 OBP

Nolan McLean

BA had him rated with a 130 stuff+ on his slider, the best in any NL arms.

Overall stuff+ mark of 113 ranks him 2^nd behind Philly RHP Moises Chace (119).

2024 slider at 85.1 with average 2,900-rpm and 14” glove-side movement.

 

Monday brought an early morning pre-Christmas eve present.

32-year old LHSP Sean Manaea signed a new contract with the Mets… 3-years, $75mil in total

We don’t have to spend any time discussing his stat line. We know this guy.

Me?

1.     Manaea immediately slots into the SP2 role, behind Kodai Senga

2.     Going forward, I show the following rotations:

a.     Starting five: Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, David Peterson, Frankie Montas, and Clay Holmes

b.     SP6-8 candidates: Tyler Megill, Griffin Canning, and Paul Blackburn (I would slot Canning into the SP6 and use him as a long man, move Megill also to the pen, and have Blackburn as my SP1 in AAA-Syracuse)

3.     Great clubhouse guy

4.     Best friends with Frankie Montas

5.     Nothing to dislike here

 

Lastly…

I didn’t expect to write about Pete Alonso this week, but I can’t stay away from what I am feeling about this right now.

I’m assuming the rumored offer of 3yr/$90mil is accurate. Let’s also assume Boras’s desire to secure a contract for his client that lasts into the next decade is also true. It’s hard for me to believe any team is going to pay someone this long that is basically a one-dimensional player. And… he didn’t even do that well last season.

The 2025 Mets will be the Lindor/Soto Mets, with Vientos rising. These are the star bats on this team.

Don’t get me wrong. I love what Alonso has done for this team and I’d love to have him back next season but hold steady with the three-year offer.

Right now, Alonso’s future with this team may be being determined with all these rumored additions of new third basemen. And let’s not forget the rumors of the Mets desire to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or the development of top 5 prospect Ryan Clifford.

There are long term options to solve the need for a first basemen into the 2030’s.