LOOKING AHEAD…
Toronto recently made Vlad Jr an offer of a roughly $340 million extension over 10 years, which VJG considers far too low.
Guerrero is an interesting person to gauge, as most MLB hitters don’t have a former major leaguer as a father, and his father Vlad Sr is in point of fact not just any hitter, but a Hall of Famer.
Vlad Sr was excellent throughout his career, but was not very good in his age 34 year. Then, he had a strong bounce back year with 115 RBIs at age 35, and subsequently played a final year at age 36, where he hit .290 but with just 13 HRs and 63 RBIs in 145 games.
So, if I were the Mets next off season, I’d see Vlad Jr as realistically finished, or in major decline, by the time he turns 37, so I would offer him 10 years, $500 million, and hope that is enough.
That would cover his age 27-36 seasons.
Vlad Jr is a first baseman, while his daddy was a fine outfielder with a cannon for an arm, making him more valuable as a position player than his 1B son, which is not meant to denigrate his son, who is excellent.
But Vlad Sr was also a greater hitter than Vlad Jr, hitting .318 in his career vs. his son’s .288 current career average.
Vlad Jr is not Juan Soto, either, who walks far more than VJ does, so it seems he should not be paid as much as Soto.
Toronto may well make him an offer he can’t refuse. But, if not….
Just some looking ahead thoughts.
What do you think of the chances of Vlad Jr becoming a Met?
Me? I’d sure love to see him team up with Soto, Lindor, and Vientos.
Thunderous.
25 comments:
Here is my back of envelope analysis for what it is worth:Last four years VG had 16.5 fWAR worth about $165M or $41M per year. For a 10 year contract at $500M he needs to generate 50 fWAR to pay out straight up - less if there are deferrals. Chat GPT guesstimates that a NY Mets WS Championship could be worth $300-$500M (prompt: “ How much would a World Series be worth to the team for the ny Mets”) so if you add two or three championships over the 10 year period one can make the case for this type of deal - especially with deferrals. The big question: can the Mets win one or two WS in the short term with Pete vs Vlad? So is Vlad worth that much more than Pete on a 4-5 year deal that starts next year?
Unconfirmed reports from unnamed sources say that Pete Alonso is expected to sign with an unnamed team by Labor Day, so just relax.
RVH, very astute analysis. I do think a younger Vlad raises the Mets annual win totals by 5 per year, which makes reaching the playoffs annually quite probable and likely deeper dives into the post season. I say that, of course, realizing Toronto has not been much of a playoff team with Vlad. I think, though, that pairing Soto, Lindor, Vlad and Vientos has line up lethality. I personally would go to more games to see that.
Corbin Burnes to the D Backs for 6 years, $210 million. 6 years for a pitcher is a LONG contract.
Saw this Facebook trivia: "Mark McGwire got his first MLB hit off Tommy John in August 1986. Tommy John's dentist was Mark McGwire's dad."
With this anecdote, I may CAP my Mack's Mets puns for 2024.
Sorry Tom, I just can't get on board with this signing. How can you possibly not think that he will age badly. He's only 26 and already out of shape. He is even worse defensively (-9 for career) than Pete.
He's going to age like Prince Fielder. If we sign him to the contract, you mentioned it will destroy our payroll for years to come. The luxury tax will be suffocating to the team for years.
I agree that he is a very good hitter, but he can't run, he's a below average fielder, a DH in the next few years. I would take a hard pass.
JoeP, at my age, I am not looking at it for 10 years. If I got 5 great years...
But that weight is worrisome.
Even Vladi Jr, a Mets minor leaguer in DSL this past summer at age 17, was listed at 6'2", 220. How big will he be in 5 years?
Pete gets a big plus for keeping himself in great shape. He has always worked HARD
Vlad Jr in his career has shown a propensity to add weight quickly, but also to shed it. Will it be harder to keep off over the next 10 years? Probably. His biggest future challenge.
What really scares me is how motivated a person is when he has over 400m guaranteed. Except for personal pride, what would be his motivation to stay in shape. He has already had to constantly shed weight.
Speaking of Vlad Jr, I trust the writers of this site for info on our prospects. Do you have any insight on his potential. Do they view him as a potential star, or did they just take a chance due to his bloodline?
As far as his weight it would depend on who he follows. His father or brother.
🤣🤣🤣
I agree with JoeP. While I didn't have as much issue with Soto, I think a 10 (or more) year deal for Guerrero would not have a great outcome. Give Pete 5 years - hell give him the 6 (the difference between Vlad's age and estimated 10 year deal). I do not believe in the long term that Vlad would generate 5 wins per year more than Pete.
While definitely not in the sign Pete camp for anything more than 3 years
I am worried about Vlad… sure it sounds great but he isn’t Miguel Cabrera where we say he is an absolute monster, my definition was always Delgado…. You never wanted men on base for Delgado.
I really want Tucker he is older but to me he is the better player
With Pete's market collapsing, I don't think the question is "Do you pay more for Vlad", but "Do you pay less for Pete"? If you can pay less for Pete than his extension offer from 2024, you will get the most affordable, best WAR/$ solution for the next couple of years.
JoeP, Vladi Jr had a bad age 17 season in the DSL. His bonus was not large. Perhaps it was a signing to curry favor with Vlad Jr. Of course, there is always a possibility the DNA kicks in for Vladi Jr. in 2025. But it didn't for Greg Guerrero, who got a lot more bonus $$ from the Mets than did Vladi Jr, but hit just .227 while being often injured and ultimately failed..
The fact that both Greg and Vladi Jr signed with the Mets could be an indicator of Mets future interest in the Toronto superstar
I second JoeP entire comment!
On the assumption that Alonso has no other suitors, be careful…. Corbin Burnes didn’t have many suitors at $245 for seven years, but at 6/$210, he got snapped up pretty quickly and by a team no one was expecting because they have six starters already.
If Alonso says ok to a three year deal, the Mariners, giants, Blue Jays, A’s, Rays, Rangers, Pirates, Reds, Twins, Rockies, Nationals, Royals, Indians, and a few more are all over him. We cannot assume that “he has no market”. As we said yesterday, Boras finds a way to create a market. Either by deferrals (Snell, Burnes, or so many others in the past) or by finding a sucker, Boras earns his money. That’s why players go to him! He doesn’t recruit any more. Give Pete a fair deal, show him love, and he will be a Met. Give him arrogance and attitude, he will be somewhere else and the hole in the Mets lineup will not be filled easily.
Tom, thanks for the info. So, I guess we are getting the short end of the Guerrero stick.
Thanks Gus...my brother from another mother
I’m not saying give him six or seven years, but give him five years at $135MM, and that isn’t an insult. Giving him three years is an insult. He is in good shape, and has been more more consistent that Vlad Guerrero. Look up the numbers yourselves. Yes, I realize he is older but he is in great shape always and takes pride in that. He will be fine.
Tom -
Your window of success may be a short five years. I would guess that Cohen's window is much, much longer. It has been written here that the feeling is Soto will eventually have to move to DH due to decline in playing the outfield. It is also written here that the feeling is Vlad will have to move to DH due not being mobile enough to play first. So, in five years the Mets will have the most expensive set of DHs.
(Crazy thought. Could Soto move to first like Harper?).
With the longer-term view, either sign Alonso to a team favorable deal or do a stop gap as suggested in the earlier post and go sign someone next year. (Other than Vlad next year, Naylor).
Me - either sign Alosno for three years or trade for Arenado and pass on Vlad/
I expect Pete will come on board under a reasonable deal .
Just keep in mind Vlad hit .323 this year, 81 points higher than Pete, who is 4 years older. 600 at bats, that is an extra 50 hits. Apples and oranges.
Some fans love Ronny Mo. My cousin does. Anyone think Ronny Mauricio can outhit, or match, Pete by 2026?
I love Pete (although he does frustrate) saw him hit the bomb in Milwaukee with my adult son. Amazing memory… that said fr, here is another potential option if Pete is too expensive: find a trade with Tampa for Yandy Diaz (solid hitter, great defense, low contract, two years) - for Baty & a below 15 prospect? - then wait for next year (Godzilla also hitting the market) & let Clifford develop further. Creates optionality. Take another swing next year, competitive this year,
True, Vlad had an awesome year last year. His 2 years prior were good, not great. Food for thought. He lost weight last year and got in a little better shape. He played at close to 250 lbs....if that's getting in shape...Yikes.
I don't think Ronny Mo's OBP will ever get much higher then .300.
I don't have that much faith in him.
That Yandy Diaz trade would be a good idea if all else fails.
Frankly it would be great if we could anvoid another mega contract by having another Vientos or two blossom. Come on, farm system!
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