Tom Brennan: Why $765 MM Juan Soto Deal Was a Huge Mets Win; and The Pen

 

BOOM!!

I was gonna write on something else this week, but when Juan Soto made the right choice, in fact the ONLY SENSIBLE CHOICE. to sign with the New York Mets, I changed my writing focus to Juan Soto, the biggest acquisition the Mets have ever made.

Some folks would say, hey, dude, that’s quite a gastronomical contract (i,e.,  grossly astronomical). 

BUT ATTENDANCE AND OVERALL TEAM REVENUES WILL EXPLODE

Any businessman knows that costs (even gastronomical ones) are just one half of the equation, but revenues are the other half. 

And if attendance jumps by 700,000 to 1,000,000 next year, which it easily could, how much money will that put into the Cohen coffers?  Could that many more ticket sales, and potentially tickets selling at higher prices, cover his entire salary? Off the cuff, it seems like it might.

The fight for the "competitive baseball revenues honor" in New York, year in, and year out, has hands-down gone to the Yankees.  Many millions more in revenues. 

Heck, even with marquis Mets players in Lindor and Alonso, and in a major population market, the Mets remarkably were only 17th in attendance in 2024, a huge 1,000,000 behind the 2024 Yankees. The Mets' 2.3 million in 2024 could jump to 2nd in attendance in 2025 (say 3 million to 3.3 million).

Why just to 2nd highest?  No one catches the Dodgers in attendance - they will remain # 1.  Great weather and more seats.   

But Soto will captivate Mets fans more than Francisco and Pete, as Soto's at bats are known to be extremely entertaining and, all by themselves, are worth the price of admission. 

Juan Soto is a whopping 4 1/2 years younger than Ohtani.  Had Ohtani started out in MLB from the beginning of his baseball career, which he instead spent in Japan, he would have turned free agent years earlier and gotten a lot more money than he did.

IF SOTO'S CONTRACT WAS NOT ESSENTIALLY ON A STRAIGHT LINE PAYOUT

We have to be aware that although his 15 year contract is essentially "straight line" in terms of annual salary, if it were done in an "age-producing payout" instead, it would probably work out to $75 million per year for years 1 through 5, $50 million per year for years 6-10, and $26 million per year for the last 5 years.  In other words if he signed for just 5 years, it would have been for at least $375 million.   The early 5-6 years are what makes the annual salary so costly into his late 30s.

ADJUSTING DIMENSIONS

One of the pitch lines by the Yankees towards Soto, was that Yankee Stadium, dimensions, wise, was made for him. 

Should the Mets' dimensions also be "made for Juan"?  Yes.

I will repeat my often-expressed refrain that the Citi fences should come in 5 to 7 feet further.  Let Juan get a few cheap HRs each year  - it will add to his career statistical legacy AND help make sure that the fan's love relationship with Juan stays strong.  If he hits .270 with 34 HRs, some fans will think the Mets overpaid.  If he sneaks out 5 more HRs with shorter fences, though, those numbers become .285 with 39 HRs, with which only a few critical fans will have an issue.  That fence move-in would help Lindor and Vientos, also, just to name two.

Hitting in the pitchers’ park named Citi Field, lifetime for Juan, with the current pitcher-friendly dimensions? A rip-roaring .333/.466/.709.  No one else on the team comes close.  

But I think it would be foolish to think he will put up .333/.466/.709 at Citi over the next six prime years - but he might actually do that with slightly shortened fences that will only make the park "hitting neutral" rather than a pitcher's paradise.

Let a slightly shrunken park cause the superstar to put up superstar numbers, year in and year out.

LET US NOT FORGET THESE POINTS, TOO

Let's not be remiss to forget that Soto hits VERY WELL in the playoffs, unlike his former compadre Judge.  

And let's not forget that he scored a whopping 130 runs last year.  

And let's not forget that he is like Nimmo on steroids in terms of his ability to get on base via hits and walks.

And of course, let us not forget that Juan Soto will also make other hitters in the lineup better. Much better. That’s hard to measure, but it’s true. We will see it in 2025 for ourselves.

Let's recall that for so many of the Mets' team years, they were average to below average in offense.  Those days are over.  Let's also be aware that Soto plays in almost every single game.

And, let's overlook that he doesn't steal a lot of bases.  I am fine with that.  Who needs him trying to steal more and getting hurt and missing time?  Think "Mauricio".  

And his defense?  It could be better perhaps if he tried to emulate reckless Juan Lagares, but Lagares got hurt a lot and missed a lot of games.  Heaven forbid that Soto misses any time.  He knows that to put up colossal HOF stats, he has to play a ton of games every year. Which means avoiding reckless injuries.

And his presence on this team will make premier talent want to join Juan Soto in Citi Field in the future. 

OK, I'm done.  And I am EXCITED.  

One other person who is overwhelmingly thrilled about Soto is my brother Steve, who has ALWAYS said that getting Soto was an absolute must.  He hated the Wilpons.  He loves Steve Cohen.  A lot.

He added (for Messrs. Cohen and Stearns) to forget keeping the prospects…trade what you have to in order to get the lethal Garrett Crochet…

And have a better bullpen in 2025 than the Yankees. 

Last years, the Yankees’ bullpen was 6th with a 3.62 ERA. THE METS’ pen was 17th, at 4.02. 

In 2023, the Yankees pen was first at 3.34; the Mets pen was 22nd at 4.45. 

Those 2 years, the Mets pen was just 65-64, 73 of 114 in saves (64%). 

The Yanks pen was a clearly better 64-50, with 89 of 129 in saves (74%).

So…Steve Brennan has a point. A big point.  Have a top 10 pen.

RULE 5 LOSSES

Brings back the old memories of Mets doubleheader losses in the 1960s: 

“The Mets lost two today.”

“Nate Lavender was selected by the Rays with the 12th pick, while Mike Vasil was selected by the Phillies at pick 29.”

- For me, losing Nate the Great is very disappointing.