Tom Brennan: Surprising Steamers Stuff; Roster Is Reforming; There Once Was a Guy

Picture of a Steamer…FULL STEAM AHEAD!

So the Mets, on December 18 or thereabouts, as I write this, agreed to sign pitcher Griffin Canning.  So I did what I like to do: 

See what Steamers (Fangraphs) projects him to do in 2025, after his high innings and high  5.16 ERA with the Angelinos in 2024.

Well, the “steam team” had him pegged at 129 MLB innings for 2025 and a much better, and not-so-bad, 4.22 ERA.

So I looked to compare him to leaky Paul Blackburn. 

Steamers projects Paul with a high 4.66 ERA, giving him an Adrian Houser feel, if you catch my drift.

Tylor Megill, you ask?  A 3.77 ERA projected for 2025. Nothing shabby about that. So get off the big fella’s back.

How does that compare to ace Kodai Senga?  

Darned close…at 3.79. That is “Ace Kodai” with a small a.

Dandy David Peterson (oft referred to as “my ace”)? A dandy 3.71 ERA.

Garrett Crochet, whom the Mets failed to trade for? 168 IP, 3.02 ERA. 

 - Just thought I would throw that in there.

Sean Manaea, who was up for grabs, and grabbed by the Metsies once more?

 - Steamers sees regression, to a 4.01 ERA. Ugh. May they be WRONG.

I project Manaea at a better 3.50.

Compare Manaea to newly acquired Clay Holmes, who Steamers had down for 2025 at 144 innings, 3.52 ERA. Yeah!

Jose Butto? 3.86 ERA, 62 innings, but no starts, as per Steamers for 2025.

Back to Griffin Canning. His career stats reveal a few things:

Far better starter (results-wise) at home. Lousy road W-L record.

He had 7 VERY BAD starts in 2024, in which he allowed 47 runs in 33 IP.

In all his other starts, 139 innings, much better at just 58 total runs.  

So, cut down the number of bad starts, to four, let’s say, and you have a much better pitcher.

He fanned a lot fewer batters per IP in 2024 than in 2023. Why? Dunno.

He allowed a high 31 HRs in 172 IP, so spacious Citi Field ought to help there.

So, I say:

Get Canning in Hefner’s gain-of-function pitch lab, and fix him real good.

So that he can Terminate more opposing sluggers.

ROSTER REFORMING…

Like the T2 Terminator machine in the Terminator 2 movie, the Mets roster had to melt down at the start of the post-season, and then re-form.

It is almost fully reformed. When it is, it will be extremely dangerous, and resilient.

Other teams will run screaming in fear.

Finally…

THERE ONCE WAS A GUY…

…who, in his ages 25-28 years for a non-Mets team hit .284, averaging 38 doubles, 7 triples, 25 HRs, 102 RBIs and 99 runs.

Very solid numbers.  Fairly close to Juan Soto numbers.

This person, this “guy”, Bobby Bonilla, then became a NY Met. 

Not terrible as a Met was the former Pirate, but disappointing to many.

Of course, Soto is a much better OBP guy than Bonilla was, has more HR power, and will start his Mets career 3 years younger than Bobby Bo started his Mets tenure.

Still, it reminds you that Soto will need to continue to perform at extremely high levels to justify that gargantuan contract. His past numbers don’t count, but his Mets numbers sure will.

So…

Help Soto out, Uncle Steve.

Move the fences in. 

We want to see “WOW” stats from him. 

And a few more cheap homers will help boost his stats to WOW status.

Lastly, a touching Christmas photo I saw on Facebook: