For the past few years and prior to the start of the season I
have been predicting the offensive outcome for position players. In 2024, I
went against the grain and forecast the Mets as going deep into the post-season,
and that’s what happened. Last year I did not have good vibes and was uncertain
as to how well they would do. And they did not fail to disappoint.
This upcoming season I am once again going against the grain and predict that not only will the Mets win the NL East, but they will do so by a comfortable margin. Neither the Braves nor the Phillies did much to improve themselves this offseason. We not only have a strong lineup, and a potentially powerful bench as well as a starting staff, if healthy, as good as any team in MLB. Of course, the key is staying relatively healthy
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I’m assuming the team averages slightly less than 5 runs per game for the season. That may be a rather conservative assumption. The new approach to hitting seems to be more contact oriented than in the past, therefore we can hope to be more productive in situational hitting. The team has invested a lot in the latest technologies as we now have hitting and pitching labs to help maximize the abilities of a very talented group of players.
Hopefully, this is the year that players such as Alvarez
and Baty reach their potential and Benge turns out to be as advertised. Alas,
Lindor may be taking a step back. We shall see.
Ray
February 21, 2026
6 comments:
I think some of the starters, other than Soto and Lindor and Bo, will be getting time off, so I think your other category is low and some of those are too high. It would be great if they scored 800 runs as a team though. That would definitely have us in the running for the playoffs.
I will break this down further today in my 9am ET post.
They are 100% set up to produce a more productive offense in 2026. Especially in competitive games.
Prior Mets teams have consistently defied the probabilities by underachieving with RISP. Let's hope that the new group that has been assembled, including the hitting coaches, has a much better mental approach at the plate.
i hope you are right, but I don't see the homer numbers for many of the players reaching the levels your project. I am especially concerned about Alvarez. His expected variance -- floor -- ceiling -- is ridiculously extreme, in my judgment. I really need to see if he has improved his sequencing, which last year was among the worst I have observed across the league. I may have to do a post or two on the kinematic sequence and how to recruit energy from the ground and how it is transferred because people seem to project numbers for Alvarez that are simply not plausibly projected without a change in sequencing efficiency on his part.
I like that you have Lindor’s numbers down from his normal based on his hamate injury. But, taking it a step further, dies he still lead off? Ans Semien is a bit low, I believe. He only played until August and played in a tougher park for homeruns and offense.
I really think my estimates are low across the board. Rather be conservative at this point .
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