SOME TEAMS…WELL…THEY JUST…STINK…LATE & CLOSE
Hitting well in late and close situations is a real challenge in baseball.
Not doing that well, of course, is detrimental to a team’s season success.
After all, highly paid, stat-squelching opposing closers have to be faced, and those suckers could be oh-so hard to get a hit off of.
2026 SO FAR:
The Mets are two games into this March-birthed season (baseball in March is in fact March Madness) and that late and close hitting showed up in a tying run off the bat of Luis Torrens in the bottom of the 10th.
And a come from behind, 3 run inaugural Mets HR by Luis Robert Jr.!
Yes, indeed, this is a new day! Wow!
2-0 this year might have been 0-2 last year.
That was BTW some strength poke out of the park by Luis Robert Jr., on a pitch down at the knees on the outside half of the plate. Against a strong wind, on a frigid night.
OK…on to my previously drafted article…
The Mets had an above average overall offense last year.
But when it came to late and close situations, as defined by Baseball Reference (“Late & Close is defined as the 7th inning or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck”), the Mets were quite pedestrian.
The median MLB team, in terms of Late & Close plate appearances, produced the following mediocre slash line in 2025:
.229/.310/.366.
The Mets in 2025?
Remember the prosecuting attorney in the movie Movie “My Cousin Vinny” demonstratively saying at one point, “IDENTICAL”?
Well, Mets’ and baseball’s 2025 L&C “almost identical” as you can see below.
.229/.312/.361.
Virtually the same as the median MLB team produced, as you can see, although overall, the Mets bats provided a significantly better than average MLB offense in 2025.
They, simply, hit very, very well in situations that were not late & close, but hit like a mere median-average team in late and close situations.
The average fan that looks at a player’s stats is going to look at their basic overall season stats. Average, home runs, RBIs.
They’re not going to drill down into Boutique-type stats like “Late & Close”.
So these fans could have gotten excited about Alonso and Nimmo and McNeill and Marte, our dearly departed Mets 2025 Brothers, but the team as a whole underwhelmed in 2025 Late & Close situations. Which is where games are won and lost many times.
This malaise, despite not having to face a late & close squelching beast like Edwin Diaz during 2025, while he was still a Metsie.
We will see how well the restructured Mets do in late and close situations this year. I hope they rank higher amongst the 30 major league teams in Late & Close situations than they do in regular stats situations. Because if you finish higher overall hitting-wise than you rank in late and close, as occurred in 2025, you are not clutch enough.
To be clear:
The 2025 Mets’ batting average, OBP and slugging % slash line for all plate appearances averaged 9th best.
Ninth best overall, but only 15th best in late and close situations?
Big difference.
Ergo? Not clutch in “late and close”.
I believe that’s one big reason why Steve Cohen and David Stearns chose to make the roster changes that they have…Subpar 2025 late and close output. Not just the oft-mentioned 2025 porous defense that was hemorrhaging runs.
Hopefully, the newly acquired Mets hitters will rake better in late and close situations in 2026 than the 2025 team’s hitters did. I believe this team will be far better in late and close siruations.
If they do, wins will pour in and fans will SMILE. Even if they never heard of the “late and close” stat.
By the way, Bo Bichette in L&C situations in 2025?
He hit a robust .325/.354/.558.
As you can clearly see if you look closely, lately I’m smiling over here, just thinking about that.
Mets game one against Skenes was not a good test of “late and close”. Because, after the first inning, it was never close. But the Mets, in that first inning of the opener, when it was EARLY AND CLOSE?
EXCEPTIONAL.
AND A GREAT SIGN THAT “LATE AND CLOSE” MAY BE MUCH MORE INTERESTING IN METSVILLE IN 2026 THAN IN 2025.
ALONSO WATCH
1 for 5, no RBIs on Saturday.
His last RBI was a full month ago.
35 comments:
Meanwhile, Syracuse lost 5-3, in the same cold conditions essentially as at city Field, except it was about 5 to 7° colder where they were playing, if that is even possible. The bottom, half of the lineup, comprised of veterans went 0 for 13. While I understand that there will be some bad hitting performances in the first two games are very very cold weather for the Syracuse squad, the extremely bad hitting of several of the veterans so far in the first two games makes me wonder, as it makes others wonder, why AJ Ewing is not on the AAA team.
Personally, I wonder why Kevin Parada is not on the AAA team, too. I was just challenge of there and let them sink or swim. But hey, that’s me.
Does yesterday count as a “win when trailing in the ninth” or does extr innings not count in that stat?
Did y’all see the Braves sixth run ninth inning to win capped off by Dominic Smith’s grand slam?
Wow…the Revenge of Dom Smith, coming to a stadium near you.
That is 4 more RBIs than Alonso has compiled after February.
Sounds like it should count as that win when trailing in the ninth stat, logically, but I don’t define the stats.
My favorite stat is 2-0.
I turned away after no runs were scored after Lindor, Soto, and Bichette scored nada with no out and bases loaded 😅
Oh
BTW
did anyone notice in the first two games Bo can't throw?
One more stat to add to you 2025 accolades for naught: they were the fifth ranked offense in terms of oWAR on FanGraphs.
Mack, I would call that late and choke, except when you’re playing in January weather, I’ll give them a pass. I am however, amazed that Robert hit that low pitch out of the park in those conditions. That guy could be really, really good. When I first heard that they were looking to try to get him, I was really thinking why? He just had to injury filled very mediocre hitting years. But maybe we’ll get a huge comeback year from Robert. Give that Soto guy a run for his MVP $$.
He did have 13 WAR in essentially 2.5 full seasons over his first 4 years. Do that again.
No, I did notice that his throws tail into the runner if he doesn’t get on top of it correctly. Poor Polanco, he was talked into this gig, you can tell.
The Soto thing was terrible luck. I can’t believe the Pirates good luck the next inning. Wow.
Move Semien to third, Bo to 2nd.
Simply put l, Syracuse is not fielding the best they had on paper.
Reimer is hurt Suero is simply wrong
Holding back Ewing is simply criminal
Holding back
Cut off...
Holding back Suero was wrong
I have never been a fan of Robert
May revisit this
Yesterday was throwing error to Polanco
I hope the Alonso 'bashing' stops soon. He did far more for the Mets than any fan had a right to expect and he was beloved by most. It was wise to let him walk, but the better approach is not just to wish him well, but to hope for his finding continued success in his new environment.
We don't need to feel good should he struggle in order to feel good about what we have. Spent the offseason praising the approach Stearns has taken, which is really just the beginning of his taking full control over what the organization's approach will be over the next decade. I liked it over the winter; and I like it over that part of the winter that is the regular season :-)
Not a fan of Garcia. I'd do a break down of the weaknesses of his body mechanics, but hopefully he will be gone before I have the opportunity to prepare one.
I am not surprised that the bullpen has holes at this point, but I one positive is worth pointing out. Last year we could have used a long man given how weak our starting pitching has been. Right now we have two and a quarter long men. Myers, Manaea and Brazubon Very important at this early stage of the season when starters are just stretching out. Peralta was out of gas after 4 and is a 6 inning pitcher at best, though a good and durable one.
Vientos is batting 1.000; a pessimist could read that and say, 'Nowhere to go but down". I'm a Cautious Optimist so I won't.
Only overall roster problems I see are of two sorts. We aren't making optimal use of the 26th spot. It's an opportunity for a genuinely versatile player who can add to areas of relative weakness, e.g. speed, infield defense, and Young does not do that.
Second is overall infield defense. I hate the solution that employs the fact that we have players playing out of their optimal positions as if it were an attribute of versatility. And I hate it more if any time off due to rest or injury means even more movement of players to positions that are even less desirable positions for them.
But it is early. I expect relievers from our organization's minors to move up in due course to replace the likes of Garcia, and a genuinely versatile back-up infielder who can handle SS as well as other positions thus reducing musical chairs response to injury or rest.
Why move a Gold Glover for a non-Gold Glover?
We all said the team will need some time to gel. The weather sucks now. Baty will probably start at 1B today so we will get a look at him. I’m certain if Baty is solid at 1B he will primarily start there shortly.
Give Bichette some time. He is an elite baseball player, 28 years old & in his prime. He may not be David Wright on defense but he will be a stud for this team.
There is room at the bottom of the bench & bullpen for rising talent that will get promoted. Remember, it’s not even April yet. They are playing for October.
Oh & BYW, Peterson looked strong. A very, very good sign.
Agree with Jules, let’s drop the Alonso shade. He was a great Met, did what any of us would do if we had a chance to sign a $155M contract. I wish him well & look forward to a reunion at some old timers day in 10 years.
Finally: 2-0 gaining Skenes and Keller - not too shabby
I hope, as the weather warms, Myers, Manaea, and Scott dominate multi-inning stints out of the pen
I prefer to look at it as Alonso Observations. Many fans were appalled the Mets let Pete walk. In part, because he was an RBI machine. But the 30+ zone can get tricky for 5 years. And the reality, the observation, is, no RBIs since February. Remarkable. If Pete would have taken 2 years, $70 million, I would have wanted him back. For 5 years, I am glad he is elsewhere.
If I was playing in the field last night, and I was still in my 20s, my hands would have been frozen and bad throws would have not been a surprise.
50 and sunny for today’s game. Flip flops and shorts are in order.
How about Baty to third, and Polanco and Bichette share 1st and DH?
Always liked Dom. Glad to seem him do well. Just don’t help Braves win too often.
This! 1000 times this! Shrinks the team to having below average defense on just 2 spots, 1B and LF. Plus to plus plus defense everywhere else! Also should help overall health and durability for Polonco and Bo
Since the subject of this article primarily was how guys hit in late and close situations, it should be noted that Pete Alonso in his career has hit .217 in late and close situations. That’s a big reason why he’s not here anymore. Because, well,.217 is pretty pathetic.
Also
Look for Vientos to play today, either DH or 1B
After McLean today, off to St Louis. I looked up high temperature there…on Monday and Tuesday, 86 degrees!
I just like the basic construction of the team. Don't even think about what the last iteration looked like. If you stay in place you are just going backwards. We are going forwards, and I expect that to continue. Can't happen all at once. The truth is that after this year is over, Stearns' main job will be figuring out our starting rotation -- believe it or not. We may or may not have Bichette. We may or may not have Robert either. We are starting a build using the phasing logic. We have to have a few starters who will be just beginning 4/5
year stints on the rotation as other phase in. We are phasing in the outfield now with Benge, and may continue with Ewing or Robert and Ewing next year.
We will be phasing in on the infield next year or year after with Pena (most likely) or Ewing as a second baseman? This is how it works. Among pitchers we shall see. I think it's Santucci in, Peterson out. Skubal or Peralta
Torrens is starting today. A troubling trend to sit Alvarez every third day.
I enjoy seeing the Mets win. I don't enjoy seeing them underperform against bad teams. I have seen both this week. They have won two games, but have done so in a less-than-satisfying way. Giving up 7 runs in the opener in cold windy weather with your so-called "ace" on the mound is not good. Failing to score for nine innings against no-one's Cy Young candidate Mitch Keller and a handful of below average relievers is not good. If the Mets lost these ballgames, one would say they "found ways to lose". I hope they perform better today.
It was freezing. Luis Robert said several times, his hands felt numb. They will rake in warmer weather, I believe.
I’d like to see Alvarez DH when he isn’t catching.
I think Mitch Voit, too.
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