Tom Brennan: Edwin, Devin, Craig, Parnell, Jeurys - Closer Shelf Lives; and Whoa! Crow Dough!

DEVIN WILLIAMS MIGRATED FROM THE BRONX TO QUEENS

 

THE SEASON STARTS TOMORROW. 

AS ALWAYS, THE BULLPEN COMES INTO FOCUS. 

Edwin Diaz was an epicenter of brilliance on a sinking Mets ship in 2025. 6-3, 1.63, and a ton of saves.

My guess is, at age 32 in 2026, he will likely will excel again…for LAD.

But the Diaz contract is for THREE years, ages 32, 33, and 34.

Age often becomes the enemy of the closer. 

Will it for Edwin? Time will tell.  

He did throw a little less hard after his WBC injury than he did in the season prior. Still very hard, to be sure. But what if he slips two more MPH this year? Or 4 more MPH by 2028? Can he compensate?

We all know he holds base runners extremely poorly. What if his K rate slips dramatically in LAD years 2 and 3?  What if his WHIP rises by 30%?  That’s a lot more scampering base rabbits, running wild and free.

His K/9 was still high, but down in a more than insignificant way than his stunning K/9 rates of his prior 2 seasons.

That’s enough sugar for now.

How have other very good and great relievers aged?

Craig Kimbrel? 

He failed to make the Mets opening day roster in part due to mensa-mensa velocity. In years gone by?

Absolutely Hall of Fame caliber - thru age 30. Killer. Beast. Flamethrower.

Thereafter, he was high quality - in just his age 33 season. 

But in his age 31, 32, 34, 35, 36 and 37 seasons?  Nope. NG. Not A-OK.

Nothing whatsoever like the exhilarating and blistering performances he achieved through age 30.

He is remaining in camp, hoping an opportunity opens up. Good for him.

Jeurys Familia?  

Very solid through age 30, but downright mediocre thereafter.

Devin Williams? 

Superb through age 29.  A 1.60 combined ERA in 2022, 2023, and 2024.  

Shaky, but with a strong WHIP and K rate, in 2025, at age 30. 

But don’t forget his 4 excellent post-season innings in 2025.

One year bad blip? We will soon find out. I am leaning towards a solid rebound in 2026. A 2.50 ERA?

He is in the same age range as Edwin and also signed for 3 years, but at 2/3 the cost.

One more…

Bobby Parnell?

The former 100+ MPH Mets closer had very solid relief years at ages 27 and 28, then injuries caused his career to crumble.

In conclusion, it is hard to project when a post-30 aging reliever will stumble, humbly crumble, and downright bumble. 

And 2026 alone (no matter how good) may not be all-revealing for the above active guys signed to a multiplicity of seasons. 

But as relievers that are getting older? 

It is clear they are an unpredictable bunch. 2027 might not be heaven.

YOUNG CROW PICTURE FROM A BRENNAN ARTICLE 5 YEARS AGO

WHOA!! CROW DOUGH!

Read this - and said WHOA!

“The Cubs and (former Mets uber-prospect) Pete Crow-Armstrong agreed to a six-year, $115 million extension, a source told MLB.com's Mark Feinsand, keeping the center fielder as part of the team's core through the 2032 season. 

“The club has not confirmed the contract, which is pending a physical. There are no options in the extension, which buys out his first two free-agent years and is the largest contract ever with no club options for a player with five years of control remaining. 

“Escalators for 2031-32 could make the deal worth as much as $133 million, per source.”

- Now THAT was a terrible trade. No more dumb deals!

 - Wait, I’ve written that about 100 times since the Crow was dealt away.