Reese Kaplan -- Is it Time to Replicate the Sell Off of July 2023?

Back in 2023 the Mets did something no one really saw coming.  The club was going nowhere fast and the Cy Young quality duo they’d brought in towards the ends of their careers were not delivering the Mets into October baseball.  Without much buzz ahead of the July trade deadline the Mets sent Max Scherzer to the Texas Rangers in what was primarily a salary dump more so than a red letter prospect acquisition.  In that deal they brought in since departed Luisangel Acuna and big payroll relief where the Rangers took on all but $22.5 million of Scherzer’s salary. 

Looking at the numbers produced by Acuna you can easily say he was nowhere near equal value for a man slated to have his plaque immortalized in Cooperstown.  Then again, if you pull up the numbers for Scherzer since departing and he’s not quite what he was during his prime time days.  He’s above .500, having gone 21-18 over this 3+ season period of activity but his 4.57 is markedly worse than what he was expected to deliver.  He’s had a hard time staying healthy which might account for the fact his ERA resembles more of Tylor Megill than Cy Young.

The other major chip heading out of town was multi Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander who in late 2023 became a Houston Astro.  It was a strange deal in which the Mets paid down all but $5 million of his upcoming salary for the following years.  It netted them since departed Drew Gilbert and strikeout king Ryan Clifford.  How has Verlander done after leaving Citifield?  Well, he’s below .500 at 22-26 as a starter with an ERA of 4.03.  That last number is not awful but it’s not how he built his path to the Hall of Fame. 

This upcoming July trade deadline has a number of interesting candidates around the league for blockbuster types of deals and obviously the free agent to be, Freddy Peralta, is going to be high on that list.  The Mets have no guarantee he would be back in 2027 and if they concede the unlikely scenario that they’re destined for October baseball, then whatever they can get now for Peralta is certainly worth discovering. 

Now any interested team needs to know that while they get Peralta to help them with their post season drive for August, September and October, they also have to know that unless they push super hard for Peralta to sign an extension during these three months they could be losing him just as the Mets would if they held onto him.  Still, being healthy and pitching in a top 10 quality in the majors would suggest the Mets can get quite a return for him despite him being a short term rental.

Obviously this same issue arises in Detroit where Tarik Skubal is down and out for most of this year after requiring surgery on his elbow which has kept him off the mound.  He’s due to be a free agent at year’s end and with the Tigers sporting a record of just 22-35 which is even worse than the Mets it would appear sensible for Detroit to try to net as much as they can for him beyond a compensatory draft pick at year end as he tries to sell himself to the highest bidder.  

Since becoming a full time starter in 2024, Skubal has a 31-10 record while striking out 10.9 per 9 IP with a WHIP of 0.906 and an ERA of 2.30.  That effort is worth two straight Cy Young Awards and at age 29 right now he’s entering a very lucrative prime time period for the middle of his career.  Expect teams to pay the sun, the moon and the stars to get him, though how much he can help in 2026 is still a great unknown.