Cautious Optimist -- I've Seen the Future and It is Murder/Not Terrible/Not So Bad/Much Brighter Than You Think/ Simply Fabulous

 

Where do we go from here?  

I had a colleague whose general approach to life was captured by the following 'insight' he shared with younger faculty puzzled and anxious about their futures: 

"The past is settled, the present fleeting, and the future unknowable.''   

My colleague, unsurprisingly, adopted a stoic approach to his life; he took life as it came and adjusted accordingly.  It was as if his life was primarily something that happened to him as opposed to a mixture of agency, happenstance and luck -- both good and badl 

The phrase stuck with me but never took root in my approach to life -- for three reasons.   

First, it didn't strike me as true or insightful.

As a factual matter, the past is settled.  Nothing we can do now to change it. But the past should not be confused with the history of it.  History is the recording of what happened, which is not a chronology, but a weaving together of events designed to provide a narrative.  It is an interpretive and creative activity.  Histories are usually fashioned by 'the winners/victors', and it seems that there are always forces afoot who are looking to suppress unflattering aspects of it.

Facts can not be erased, but histories often blot them out from view

The present may be fleeting in the grand scheme of things, but it is rarely experienced by any of us as ephemeral.  We are often advised to 'be present' and to 'live in the present' and to 'cherish each moment.'  All reasonable suggestions, and all presuppose a very different idea of the particular slice of time we refer to as 'the present.'  Certainly not something that is gone in the wink of an eye.

As for the future, it may be unknowable in all its details, but much of it is predictable.  Thankfully so, otherwise making our way through life would be immeasurably more difficult than it already is.  And of course, what we do now, and what we plan to do going forward gives us some say about what it will look like. 

Of course we need to adjust to what happens and to navigate the world as it throws roadblocks and challenges our way, but part of the joy of life is imagining what could be; and part of living a life requires planning for likely events and developing strategies for achieving our goals -- including minimizing the impact of those inevitable roadblocks. 

Second, the stoic approach is morally lazy at best and an attempt to resist responsibility and ownership for the life one lives at worst.

Third, it takes a hell of a lot of fun out of life -- especially the joy we get as fans of our team (which otherwise, for Mets fans, provides so little when we are living in the present).  

Yankee fans can mitigate the pain of living in the present by sharing memories and stories of the past.  

We Mets fans have only 'possible futures' to mitigate the horrors of the present.

Here's my proposal as to how we should deal with our absolutely miserable present: let us dream or at least imagine a brighter Mets future!

Why not.  Let's play GM. Join me.  I'll go first. 

Where shall we start? What are the rules?

Let's make it simple.  Let's each identify a realistic and nevertheless uplifting roster for the 2027 Mets.  No allstars at every position allowed.  All I ask is that the roster you construct is rooted (however loosely) in reality. 

While you are not being asked to fashion a plan for the next five years, the roster you come up is not constructed by selling off the future altogether.  Let's keep it compatible with the organization's general strategy of going forward with at least a fourth of the current roster, and matching that with (roughly) equal parts players obtained from trades, free agency and through promotion from the minor league affiliates. 

You should also indicate which of the players on the current roster you are committed to eliminating from next year's roster.  You can make a suggestion of the new manager if you like but that is not necessary.

Everyone gets to update their initial rosters and explain changes they make right through the trade deadline.  All rosters will be final thereafter.

At the start of the 2027 season, we will compare our rosters with the one the Mets are taking up North.  There are no winners or losers here.  The point of the exercise is that we all get to play GM without having to pay the price, and we get to measure our rosters against what the GM/POBO actually comes up.  

I'll start; join in when you feel like sharing and putting your thoughts into the Mack's Mets eco-system.  I'll keep track of the submissions.

The goal is not to predict what Stearns et al will do, but to imagine what is possible and see how we do.

My roster for the 2027 Mets and some short explanations when necessary

Manager --?  If I had to choose now I would be leaning towards Beltran, but I'm going to wait until the trade deadline to announce my choice.

Oufielders:  Soto, Ewing, Benge, Morabito, Taylor

Infielders: Contreras (1B); Bichette (2B); CJ Abrams (SS) Lindor (3B).  

In my narrative, Contreras is obtained at the deadline in a trade with Red Sox.  Sox need pitching; Contreras has only one year left on his current contract.  I see Contreras playing 1st for the Mets next year and am open to signing him for another two years either at 1B or DH or both -- depending on whether Soto moves to !B or not. At DH he would replace Polanco  Don't know the price for Contreras, but I think they like left handed bats for their porch.  I assume a pitching prospect in A ball, and either Baty, Mauricio or Clifford, any of whom could cover 1B for the remainder of the season or longer at low cost and allow the Sox to spend their savings elsewhere. 

The Nationals would be in first place if they had any pitching.  They have 10 blown saves.  That's how good their offense has been.  They don't want to pay Abrams going forward. I give them Tong, and a choice from a list of others farther down in the minors; one should be a reliever and the other a position player.

Arrangement of the infield can change.  Bichette can stay at 3rd, Abrams move to 2B and Lindor stay at SS.

His contract makes trading him impossible, and off this year, with a potential lockout, it makes no sense for him to opt out.

Other infielders on roster:  Defense, defense, defense, versatility and someone with a power bat.  I'll fill in by the deadline.

Starting pitchers: McLean, Scott, Santucci, Skubal, Ryan/Holmes

The Mets need a real ACE; they cost money and years.  Spend it now so you don't have to keep doing what we have been doing for years on end at a higher overall cost with less chance of success.  

This is the only area where I am recommending adding payroll immediately, but it saves in the long run as it gives time to develop internal options for the rotation.  Ryan will also cost, but significantly less.  We need veterans who have had success.  I may find an alternative to Ryan later and backups for Skubal, but I don't think you should allow yourself to be outbid for Skubal.

I don't think we will get enough for Holmes at the deadline to make trading him worthwhile.  If you don't trade him, then you need to at least consider extending him and I would.   You buy his option year and add 2 years, and this makes sense since if he falters in the 2nd year, he can go into the bullpen as a high leverage reliever.

Relief pitchers: Williams, Weaver, Brazoban, Minter, Raley, ?   

I may have to update if any are traded at the deadline.  I would also like to add a hard throwing high leverage reliever.  I don't yet know about Lambert and Ross.  And there are always lots of middle inning relievers available in the offseason.  Most fluid part of the roster.  Teams at deadline are always looking for relievers; in the offseason, there are invariably dozens of relievers available.

Catchers: Torrens, Alvarez

If Torrens could hit a bit better, I'd start him for 100 games.  I don't believe in Alvarez at all.  I've produced videos, explained the problems.  Apparently others on the site are not convinced.  I saw an article in the Athletic today in which trading Alvarez is presented as a likely source of a bounty in return.  According to the article he hold up is that the Mets won't give up on such a young talented offensive player.

Honestly, the article could have been better for the Mets if they had planted it themselves.

The reality is the following: The TV booth showed his numbers recently and highlighting his average over the 9 windows of the strike zone and some choice spots outside the zone.  

Every HOLE in his swing they commented on was one I not only identified but explained in the videos. If you haven't seen the videos, don't look at them if you want to believe in Alvarez.  If you do look at them and still believe in Alvarez, I've got a bridge you might interested in purchasing.

He is stubborn, immature and calls a poor game.  The Mets have some really good catching prospects farther down in the minors, but no one ready.  Catchers are in short supply.  

I've already expressed my view that he be sent to movement pattern expert the day after the season ends. If it doesn't take, he's got to go. 

Pray for a team that believes that they can fix him.  Even so, a bounty?  Not so sure.

What to do instead at catcher?  I need more time to think about it.

DH: Polanco supplemented by Soto and Contreras and days of partial rest for others as needed

Other bench spots to be filled in as needed.

Whose on my got 'to go' list?

Vientos, Baty, Manaea, Semien 

Manaea and Semien are high cost liabilities.  This isn't the NBA so there are no big time salary dumps available.  Cohen will have to pay the bulk of salary for both if he hopes to secure a return in the form of a prospect or two.

Mauricio has disappointed when given a chance, but he hasn't been given anything like the chances that Baty and Vientos have.  

One of Wagaman or Young has to go.  Maybe both.  

You can find alternatives to them every year during the offseason. No one is better at shopping in the discard bin than Stearns.

Conclusion

Well that's my first take.

Periodic updates to follow as the market develops.

It's your turn to imagine the future. No need to provide detailed explanations of how the players you choose are obtained or a justification for placing them on your roster. Both will always be welcomed however.  

Mr or Ms. GM.  Let's see what your 2027 Mets roster looks like!