Steve Sica - Does Tanking Really Work in Baseball?

With the Mets sitting at 37-54, if the season ended today, they would have the fourth overall pick. Of course, the MLB Draft Lottery could move that pick around, and if it falls to seventh or worse, the Mets' selection would drop another 10 spots because of the MLB's luxury tax penalty. 

While the Mets sit in a very distant last place in the NL East, the division title and all three Wild Card spots seem out of reach heading into the All-Star Break. There are already fans across social media rooting for the Mets to tank and land a top draft pick. 

As of July 6, they are just two games better than the Angels for the No. 1 overall selection. But for all the losing involved, is tanking, whether intentional or not, really worth it in the long run? Is the cost of playing horrible baseball for a season or two, risking alienating your fan base, and establishing a losing culture around your franchise actually worth the chance at sustained success over the next five to seven years? 

Unlike the NFL or NBA, tanking in baseball isn't nearly as common or as obvious. The MLB Draft is also very different from those of the other two sports. The NFL Draft is an event. It's discussed throughout virtually the entire offseason leading up to the end of April. It draws higher television ratings than the first round of both the NBA and NHL playoffs, which are taking place at the same time. That's because in the NFL, one player—especially a quarterback—can completely change the course of a franchise. 

One thing I like about baseball is that it's perhaps the ultimate team sport. One player doesn't automatically make you a World Series favorite. Just ask Mike Trout or Shohei Ohtani during his Angels days. Bryce Harper, the first overall pick in 2010 and one of the most hyped prospects in recent memory, has yet to win a World Series. That's not a knock on him at all. 

He certainly helped turn the Nationals into winners during the mid-2010s, though they ironically won the World Series the year after he left for Philadelphia in 2019. Harper reached the World Series with the Phillies in 2022 and won NLCS MVP honors that year, but you could argue he wasn't the only reason for their success. Philadelphia has done an excellent job of surrounding Harper with talent through both free agency and smart trades. 

High draft picks are nice because they bring in a player who immediately becomes one of the top prospects in your system, but that doesn't guarantee Major League success. Plenty of top prospects become busts. The Mets selected Kevin Parada with the 11th overall pick in the 2022 draft, and he has yet to make it past Triple-A. 

If tanking really worked and high draft picks were the secret formula for winning World Series titles, the Los Angeles Angels would be the late-1990s Yankees by now. They haven't made the playoffs since 2014 and haven't posted a winning season since 2015. They also haven't finished higher than 10th out of 15 American League teams in each of the last six seasons, and that streak is likely to reach seven by the end of 2026. Not only have the Angels been one of baseball's worst teams over the past decade, but their farm system is also routinely ranked near the bottom of the league. 

Meanwhile, their crosstown rivals, the Dodgers, have won back-to-back World Series, made the playoffs every season during that same span, and consistently boast one of baseball's best farm systems. They've accomplished all of that despite rarely picking until the late 30s or early 40s in the draft and often forfeiting selections after signing qualified free agents. 

The best modern example of tanking working is the Houston Astros. Between 2011 and 2013, they lost a combined 324 games and failed to win more than 56 games in a single season. Those lean years paid off with several outstanding draft picks. By 2015, they had reached the ALDS. By 2017, they had won the franchise's first World Series. They sustained that success throughout the late 2010s, returning to the World Series in 2019 and 2021 before winning another championship in 2022. For the sake of this discussion, we'll ignore the trash can scandal. The point remains that being very, very bad can eventually produce tremendous rewards for a franchise.

The Baltimore Orioles followed a similar path during the late 2010s and early 2020s. They went 47-115 in 2018, lost 108 games in 2019, and then lost 110 games in 2021, securing the No. 1 overall pick after each of those seasons. Eventually, they emerged from their rebuild. In 2023, just two years after losing 110 games, they won 101 games, the franchise's best record since 1979. However, they didn't experience the same postseason success as Houston. 

They were swept by the Rangers in the ALDS. The following season, they won a respectable 91 games but were swept again, this time by the Royals in the Wild Card Series. In 2025, they fell below .500, and now, in July 2026, they sit at 42-48. After all that losing, their peak still didn't produce a single postseason victory, something they haven't accomplished since 2014. 

Tanking can improve your draft position, and in theory, the higher you pick, the better your chances of landing a star player. But scouting, player development, and drafting well matter far more than draft position alone. So does navigating free agency wisely and making trades that strengthen your organization rather than weaken it. It's still too early to fairly evaluate David Stearns' draft classes since he's only overseen two. 

Carson Benge looks promising, but that's about all we can say with confidence. The 2025 class has shown flashes of promise, but there are also early concerns, both about performance and staying healthy. 

To all the fans, myself included, who are starting to root for this team to tank, ask yourself one question: Do you trust David Stearns and this Mets front office with a high draft pick, even the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 MLB Draft?