The 2026 season ended September 27 in Washington, a 6–4 loss to the Nationals.
74–88. Last place in the NL East.
The payroll was a record. The finish was the worst since 2017, and the first last-place finish since 2003. But the season didn't end the way it started. After the deadline sell-off, the kids got their chance, Lindor and Soto got healthy, and the Mets played winning baseball. David Stearns called that stretch "real," and he backed it by making Andy Green the full-time manager through 2029.
That matters.
But it's over.
What happens next won't be decided by September momentum. It will be decided by the unglamorous work of the next seven weeks.
The Mets' offseason doesn't begin with free agency.
It begins with subtraction.
Remember the Distinction
The 26-man roster is who plays. The 40-man roster is who the organization is willing to protect, pay, and store.
Right now, the 40-man is full. And as many as four more players are coming back to it. Shortly after the World Series, Jorge Polanco, Tylor Megill, Reed Garrett, and Justin Hagenman come off the 60-day injured list, and they count again.
The Calendar:
The protection and non-tender deadlines fall before the CBA expires. The Rule 5 Draft falls after. In 2021, the lockout canceled the Rule 5 Draft entirely.
The deadlines will happen. The draft may not. The Mets won't bet on that.
The Math
A dozen names, gone before the Winter Meetings.
That's the real offseason.
Who Gets Protected?
Must protect: Jefferson Rojas, the organization's No. 1 prospect.
Should protect: Gary Gill Hill, Jacob Reimer, Jack Wenninger, Zach Franklin, Ben Simon.
On the bubble: Ryan Clifford and Chris Suero. Clifford was supposed to be the next homegrown bat; a stalled year at Syracuse says otherwise. Suero's versatility is real, but a third catcher is exactly the kind of spot a crowded 40-man can't afford.
The long list of eligible players isn't the failure. Every organization exposes dozens. What the list reveals is the problem: former top picks and top prospects who stalled on the way up.
The Obvious Exits
Some decisions make themselves. Robert Stock, Cristian Pache, and Christopher Morel are all out of options. Eric Wagaman, Hayden Senger, and Christian Cairo are depth, not answers.
None of those moves will surprise anyone.
The interesting decisions are somewhere else.
The Game Is Played at the Margin
The 40-man isn't decided by the stars. It's decided by the players at the edge. That means how they were used, what they cost, and whether they can be stored.
Duarte, Warren, and Yan all earned a look. Duarte stepped into setup work after the deadline and was nearly unhittable for weeks. Yan, after a twelve-year trip through the minors, struck out hitters at an absurd rate.
But earning a spot and holding one aren't the same thing.
Warren is out of options. Keeping him locks a bullpen spot before camp even opens. Duarte is different: whatever his option status turns out to be, he finished the year strong enough that the Mets should protect him and live with the roster cost.
Yan's value is performance plus flexibility, with real upside.
Warren's value has to be performance alone.
Two Ways Out
Vientos and Mauricio may both be gone by Opening Day. But they're on different clocks.
Vientos is a November decision. He's arbitration-eligible for the first time. Tendering him means a raise for a player who has struggled for two straight seasons, and Stearns didn't mention him in his end-of-season remarks. The Mets can non-tender him, trade him, or tender him and cut him cheaply in spring.
Mauricio is a March decision. He's out of options and likely still pre-arbitration, so tendering him costs almost nothing. He homered three times in the final two games, and when asked, Stearns left the door open for him to compete for a bench job in spring.
Translation: carry him through the winter, or trade him before someone claims him for nothing.
Same possible outcome. Different mechanisms.
The Real Question
The Mets finished strong. That's real.
But September doesn't set the roster. November does.
Stearns has already said the rotation needs reinforcing, first base wasn't good enough, and there are options beyond Marcus Semien at second. Every one of those additions needs a 40-man spot that doesn't exist yet.
A 40-man roster isn't a list. It's a statement of belief about who matters in 2027.
Over the next seven weeks, the front office has to make that statement, one marginal decision at a time.
Sources: FanGraphs RosterResource; Baseball-Reference; MLB.com, AP, and SNY coverage of David Stearns' end-of-season press conference; Mets On SI; 2026 transaction reports.
Final qualification: Official 2026–27 offseason dates have not been published. Option status is reconstructed from 2026 transaction records; confirm against official rosters. The current CBA expires December 1, 2026, and a new agreement could change the Rule 5 Draft, termination pay, and other rules discussed here.
9 comments:
That will be an interesting sorting out. David’s headache
Not sure on Reimer
The next moves will be a good “tell” into how they will be operating going forward. I expect a few surprises but the lock out will also influence roster changes & also create opportunities to pick up some additional pieces that could better fit needs so time will tell.
Something interesting to watch
extremely good post that does a great job of actually helping fans and us understand how an organization looks at its 40 man roster. The only thing I would have added that matters to the decision is the FO belief that individuals they leave off the roster who are eligible for Rule 5 will likely be taken. Few are for a simple reason that teams have to keep them on the roster for a full year or give them up. Teams need catchers and relievers, and some starters but they may not be willing to go deep see diving for others who they aren't confident will warrant a roster position for the full year.
I agree. No real position and hasn’t mastered AA. I don’t know how a team can hold him on its MLB roster all year.
There are some other easy targets:
McDermott, Perez, Pintaro, Wisenburger, Weston, Abner…
I really want to cut Semien because I just don’t want him in the lineup at all. Tom says platoon him at 1B, but I want that spot for someone with a future. I don’t see Semien’s drop off reversing, but he also offers a team a 15-15 second baseman whose barrel rate was strong and so was his sprint speed. As the Mets will have to pay him if they cut him, I’d rather hold for bench or trade value. But, we have heard many times that former stars are a pain in the ass to keep around for the bench and I believe Semien falls into that category.
I don't want him in a Mets uniform either, Gus.
Great summary on the tough decisions facing the team. I would not protect Reimer - I think Mauricio is a better offensive and defensive player than him and he is teetering on the edge. Austin Warren is a very tough decision - I agree that he blocks a relief spot, but in the second half, he was one of Green's most trusted arms.
A strike of, say, half a season would cut half of Semien’s $26 million salary for 2027, and reduce the 2027-28 cost of dropping him to $33 million, still a ton of cash, but less than the $46 million he is owed. My thoughts with Semien at first base is that if he were to be able to do a platoon at first against lefties, and some other fill-in games at second perhaps, then you only keep him as long as you have to before you get jettison him.
Hopefully, by midseason, Amick would be ready to be the 1B in half the remaining games. I still think a guy who won multiple Gold Gloves can learn 1B, and as I’d mentioned previously, he had ta lefties in his career 20 points better than lefties. I’d bring in Pitre at 2B on opening day.
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