ANGRY MIKE: HOW QUICKLY CAN TEAMS REBUILD DEPTH IN THEIR FARM SYSTEM AFTER MULTIPLE HIGH-PROFILE TRADES?

ANGRY MIKE 

The Mets have the #1 Farm System in the MLB because they ascertained a success rate with draft selections over the last 4 drafts that has never been duplicated in franchise history. Their streak of successful draft classes started with the 2022 MLB Draft, and despite whiffing on 1st Round pick, Kevin Parada and his franchise record $5 Million signing bonus, the Mets were able to acquire several impact players with their early round selections, and with their selections in the later rounds.

2022 Draft Class:

        Name                    Round 

Jett Williams                1st 

Blade Tidwell                2nd 

Nick Morabito               2nd 

Jacob Reimer               4th 

Jonah Tong                 7th

  Dylan Ross                  13th 

Their 2023 Draft Class was arguably as successful, as 2022, as the Mets turn their attention to college starting pitchers in the early rounds, sandwiched between 2 premium high school talents in Colin Houck and A.J. Ewing. The Mets continued to fortify organizational depth in key areas of need with tactical precision. 

2023 Draft Class:

Name                             Round 

Colin Houck                      1st 

Brandon Sproat                2nd 

Nolan McLean                   3rd 

Zach Thornton                  5th 

A.J. Ewing                        7th

Brett Banks                      11th

Being able to add future R.O.Y candidates in Tong and McLean, potential “ACE” talents in back to back drafts is as rare as it gets, even when teams use 1st round selections and $10 million in bonuses. Adding those type of elite caliber players in the 7th and 3rd rounds, for a little over a $1 million dollars is equivalent to catching “lightning with chopsticks.” 

2024, the David Stearns officially took over for the Mets, and he teamed up with for Astros executive Kris Gross, to deliver another stellar haul of impact talent that strategically supplemented our farm system in key areas of need.

2024 Draft Class:

  Name                                Round 

 

Carson Benge                        1st 

Jonathan Santucci                  2nd 

Trey Snyder                           5th 

Will Watson                           7th 

Ryan Lambert                        8th

Brendan Girton                     10th

The 2024 Draft class supplemented the farm system with key players missing from our organizational depth chart. Starting with Benge, who was ranked as our best position player after his first full season. Stearns drafted Jonathan Santucci, who instantly became our best LHP prospect, as well as other impact players in the later rounds.

2025 Draft Class:

 Name                                Round 

Mitch Voit                              1st 

Antonio Jimenez                    2nd 

Peter Kussow                         5th 

Cade Lohman                         7th 

Peyton Prescott                      8th

Truman Pauley                      10th

Despite losing picks for signing Juan Soto, the Mets enjoyed another impressive haul of high upside talent. The Mets bonus pool allotment for the entire class was only a few hundred thousand dollars more than Kevin Parada’s bonus in 2022. They added Peter Kussow who resembles Jacob Misiorowski & Caden Lohman, who’ll remind you of Trey Yesavage because of his delivery. Truman Pauley (12th Rd), has electric stuff and a fastball generating 22.5” of I.V.B and a wipeout “gyro slider”. 

With the farm system overflowing with impact talent every minor league level, social media is on fire with mock trade proposals suggesting the Mets acquire everyone from Tarik Skubal to Sydney Sweeney. These rash mock trades are indicative of a mental health condition known as, “anger displacement”. 

Anger Displacement Definition:

“act of directing anger or frustration towards a target other than the original source of the anger…”

SOURCE   ->  METS 2025 SEASON 

TARGET   ->   METS ENTIRE FARM SYSTEM

 ===>    2022 DRAFT   thru   2025 DRAFT   <===

->  25 selections became -> Top 30 caliber out of 84 selections (4 Drafts)

->  25 Prospects / 84 Selections -> 30% Success Rate

=> 10 Impact Prospects - from selections in Rounds 6 thru 13

->  10 of 25 -> Top Prospects -> procured from RND 6 - 13 

->   RND 6 - 13: ‘22 - ‘25 -> 10 / 32 picks -> 31% success rate 

->   Add: T.Stuart (6), P. Gervase (12) -> 38% success rate

->   RDS 1 - 5: ‘22 - ‘25 -> 15 / 24 picks -> 63% success rate

->   Add: B. Tidwell (2), K. Morris (3), N. Dohm (3) -> 75% success rate

->   RND 14 & Up -> 28 selections -> ZERO % success rate

->   2022 -> 5 of 8 picks -> yielded impact talent or trade asset 

->   2023 -> 7 of 9 picks -> yielded impact talent or trade asset

->   71% -> Top 6 RND picks -> yielded impact talent or trade asset 

->   10 Impact Prospects + 2 Players used in trades 

Analysis of Mets Drafts: 2017 + 2018 + 2019 + 2021

—>     Round 14 - 30 (2017-2019) -> 0% success rate

—>     Rounds 6 - 13: ZERO % SUCCESS RATE

==>   ZERO “Tong Caliber” players drafted = 0% success rate

->       Megill & Vasil only players on MLB rosters

->     Rounds 1 - 5 -> 6 for 20 -> 30% Success Rate 

==>    6 impact players for 110 selections (all 4 drafts)

==>    5  %  Success Rate -> 4 Drafts Combined  <==

->       Baty, Vientos, & Scott, Peterson -> still with team

->       Kelenic & Woods-Richardson -> used in trades

The risk variance associated with success rates for draft selections, the total number of rounds being lowered from thirty to twenty, CBT Tax threshold penalties, and penalties for signing free agents are the primary reasons volatility for future drafts will continue to fluctuate. 

The success rates we’ve seen recently may not be achieved in the future.

In a hypothetical trade for Tarik Skubal, like the ludicrous suggestions being made by the media and fans, it would take a minimum of 4-6 years to replace 4-5 high-caliber prospects, like JETT, Benge, and especially Jonah Tong. Finding a player like Tong in the 7th round, willing to sign for only $226,000, who then blossoms into a potential ace with upper 90s velocity & the potential for 3 plus pitches is as rare as it gets:

2017-2025 || 9 Drafts || Mets had 199 picks || Only one Jonah Tong

PROBABILITY OF DRAFTING ANOTHER JONAH TONG  =  0.50 %

All the data above isn’t there to convince you why the Mets would be foolish to offer 4-5 of their highest ranked prospects for Tarik Skubal, it clearly shows why the Tigers would jump at the opportunity to trade Skubal to a team that is not only desperate and short-sighted.

The Tigers could potentially save at least 7 years, to acquire the same number of high caliber players being offered in recent mock trades. At least 4+ drafts hoping to acquire the players and than another 3+ years to of develop them. 

Of course Detroit is entertaining offers for Skubal, that’s not a major “news scoop” like the “Watergate scandal” or Bruce Jenner becoming Caitlin Jenner, it’s just common sense.

All cards on the table, there isn’t a single scenario that allows the Mets to keep all of the talented players they’ve stockpiled in recent years, it’s impossible.

Believe me, I bloody tried…

Regardless, the Mets need to execute a tactical approach that strategically capitalizes on the surplus of talent we’ve stockpiled in the farm system and MLB roster. Assess which players are nearing MLB promotions, and offer the best chance to add value as regulars. Which prospects are progressing rapidly through the minors, and may not have an immediate fit on the MLB roster.

Replacing 4-6 impact players requires as much luck as it does skill, when identifying and developing potential draft picks.Aside from the risk component built into each draft, the CBT penalties that will be applied annually severely limits the Mets draft capital every year we are over the threshold. 

The current stretch of successful drafts by the Mets, is as phenomenal as it is rare. Whereas the as previous regime’s stretch is a more accurate representation of what is considered to be normal.  

That’s why drafting or signing first-year players has always will remain highly volatile.

The stockpile of talent in the minors earning the Mets the distinction of having M.L.B.’s #1 Farm System is basically “House Money” at a “Blackjack” table. 

They can proceed disciplined and tactical, give themselves a chance to parlay their recent good fortune into the ultimate goal, which is ending the 40 year World Series drought, when it’s within striking distance.

“ONE SHOT, ONE KILL” 

Or they can be proceed undisciplined and short-sighted, not only risking ending up with nothing, but set themselves back decades from ever being in this position ever again…

“I’M PLAYING WITH HOUSE MONEY, UNFORTUNATELY THE HOUSE TOOK IT BACK…”

Paul Articulates – When the trade winds start blowing

The New York Mets have swept a three game series from the Washington Nationals.  In that three game span, the Mets scored 23 runs, banged out 37 hits, and recorded 65 total bases.  Maybe not too little, but certainly too late.  

Even with the sweep, the Mets remain 8 games under .500, and sit 16.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East standings.  With a series coming up against the Phillies where the Mets will face the top two pitchers in a pitch strong Philadelphia lineup, they are likely to drop back to 10 games under .500 with only 44 games to play before the trade deadline.  Amongst those 44 games they will see the likes of last year’s World Series champion Texas Rangers, the Yankees, Astros, and the Padres.  The window of opportunity to be competitively relevant has passed.

With the extremely high probability that the Mets will be sellers at the deadline, people are already speculating about individuals who might be on the trade block.  My guess is that almost all of them might be on the trade block because there is an extreme lack of winning mentality among this group, so it is more than just numbers that might compel the front office to move players.

Mack’s popular but very controversial “Blow it up” post last month took a financial perspective of moving players to facilitate a rebuild around the abundant prospects in the minors with selective acquisitions from the free agent market to compensate.  I will take a very different approach here by putting the shoe on the other foot and viewing the Mets players as valuables on the shelf of a high-end store with 31 suitors doing the shopping.  There are several shelves that the Mets front office will have on display.

The Top Shelf – these are players with high value that will only be moved for a high price

• Edwin Diaz – although Diaz has had problems finding his brilliance after last year’s injury, he is still one of the league’s top closers and will likely return to that status at some point.
• Kodai Senga – Senga was superb last year as a first year player, and the Mets would not be willing to give that up very easily even though this year’s injury has lingered much longer than expected.
• Pete Alonso – Pete will always go through ups and downs in his career, but he is one of the top two or three power hitters in baseball and plays with passion.  He is a NY hero, and although he will likely command a high price in free agency he would be very hard (and expensive) to replace.
• Harrison Bader – With Nimmo struggling and Bader producing both on offense and defense, the Mets are not going to part with Bader for anything less than an eye-watering deal.  This may not have been their plan going in, but with Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert injured and LA Acuna not destroying AAA pitching it will be awhile before the Mets can go without their center fielder.

The Designer Label Shelf – these are players with strong pedigree but price exceeds worth

• Starling Marte – His past statistics both on offense and defense plus his current salary makes him pricey.  But despite moments where he flashes his tremendous ability, his lack of motivation is a liability to this team.
• JD Martinez – His reputation as a professional hitter is well deserved, and he was a tremendous bargain this year when the Mets picked him up late on a one-year deal.  However, he is not part of the rebuild and has not demonstrated clutch hitting that a team would need when paying full free agent value for him.

The Dusty Shelf – these are players with high price tags that won’t be valued as much by buyers

• Brandon Nimmo – Nimmo was handsomely rewarded with his 8-year contract extension because of his performance and his dedication to continuously improving.  This year he has had a large and inexplicable set-back which makes his value much lower than teams would have to pay by picking up his contract.
• Jeff McNeil – Much like Nimmo, the former batting champion was rewarded with a generous contract extension but has gone into a deep slump.  His versatility as a multi-position defender and great bat-to-ball hitter could get attention, but he is over 32 years old and owed $40M through 2027.
• Tylor Megill – His two years of remaining team control are attractive, but Megill has not demonstrated consistent performance or health over the last four years.  I think the Mets still believe in him and will hold out for a high price. 
• David Peterson – David also has a remaning year of team control and also has struggled with consistent performance and health in his career.  Results from recent surgeries seem very positive so the Mets will likely overprice him.

The Price is Right Shelf – these are players that teams may find valuable and the Mets could move

• Drew Smith – Smith has some great potential but has never realized it as a Mets pitcher.  He reminds me of Paul Sewald who found tremendous success  by finally realizing his potential with another team.  Unless Smith has some lights-out performances in June/July, the Mets will likely move him for an attractive price.
• Sean Manaea – Manaea has shown flashes of success, but his inability to consistently hit the strike zone work against him being a long-time Met.  Many teams would still be willing to gamble on the prospect of one mechanical change making him a superb deal.
• Luis Severino – Severino has done very well in a Mets uniform, and has earned his keep.  However, with all of the pitching prospects in the Mets organization I don’t believe that Luis is in the long term plan, so the Mets would move him for the right price.
• Jake Diekman – Who wouldn’t want a lefty with Diekman’s ability?  He had some great appearances with the Mets but has fallen apart recently, so the Mets will be willing to accept an offer for him.  That’s too bad in my book because he would have continued his strong performance if not overused.
• Reed Garrett – I would make the same argument for Garrett as with Diekman.  Garrett would not be struggling right now if he was not overused in April or May.  But he will be traded long before the source of his problem (Mendoza) gets it right.
• Tomas Nido – After many years of contributing strong defense and some clutch hits for the Mets, Nido finally gets moved for his low batting average.  Lots of teams will be interested.
• Jose Iglesias – As a strategic utility pickup, Iglesias is earning next year’s salary by showing well in recent games at second base.  His slick fielding and unexpected contributions at the plate will bring the Mets a good deal here.  They will not hold him back as there are several prospects lined up to take the 2B position behind McNeil.
• Tyrone Taylor – Tyrone has earned his spot as the Mets 4th outfielder, and should be valued by the front office, but with the right offer he will go.
• Adrian Houser – Houser failed as a starter, but has shown value as a long reliever.  This keeps him on the team unless there is a good offer out there.  With all the pitching talent in the minors, he could be replaced.

The Bargain Rack – these are players that the front office will offer at a discount to move them

• Jose Quintana – This year’s opening day starter has underperformed all season and his vulnerability to the long ball has been demoralizing for him and the team.  Any and all offers will be accepted.
• DJ Stewart – There was great hope at the end of last season and in spring training this year that DJ could be a viable DH for the Mets with the ability to be a backup outfielder.  His prolonged slump evaporated that hope.
• Adam Ottovino – Otto has been all or nothing in his appearances this year.  In the rebuild plan, his chances are nothing.

Not in stock – these players will not be offered

• Francisco Lindor – Lindor is under contract for too much money for any deal to make sense.  Although he has not proven to be the offensive player or clutch hitter many expected, his defense and leadership make him important to build the new team around.
• Francisco Alvarez – Alvarez has the makings of a future star, and the Mets will not give this up.
• Mark Vientos – Things change pretty quickly when you prove you can hit!  The same guy who just couldn’t get a real chance on an underperforming team has finally gotten his chance and took full advantage.  Now the Mets would be reluctant to send him anywhere but up to the plate.
• Danny Young – Too early and too much team control to give up on Danny.
• Dedniel Nunez – Same logic here.
• Brett Baty – Baty will continue to bounce between the minor leagues and the big league club until either someone beats him for the 3B job or another full year passes.  Until then there is too much risk to let him go.