I May Be Wrong, But…

1. I hope 1B Ike Davis made the right decision. He’s decided to work out for a few more days, rest for a month, and avoid surgery. If his decision was wrong, he’s lost for opening day. It’s imperative that the lefty bats of Davis and Duda are in the same lineup next spring, sandwiching David Wright.

2. The Mets need to start the best defensive outfielder they have in the system in centerfield next spring. Right now that’s Jason Bay. Lucas Duda’s bat has to be in the lineup and he needs as much help as he can out there. I played third. My shortstop was Paul Altruda. Paul knew I moved better to my left, so I hugged the line. He covered that by playing a little deeper and closer to second base. I would go out and get myself a $3-4mil/yr. defensive specialist in free agency, put him in center until Matt den Dekker matures, leave Bay in LF.

3. My four year man-love with Jesus Montero looks like it has come to an end. There’s no way in hell that the Yankees are going to trade him after hitting two home runs on Labor Day. This is probably your future Yankee DH for the next five years minimum.

4. Not only did pitcher Phil Humber throw seven scoreless innings on Monday, but he threw it against Minnesota, the team that traded Johan Santana to the Mets for a package that included Humber. That’s cold. Humber is a perfect example of never giving up too early on a pitcher having control problems. As long as he has his velo and sickness, he can still be worked with.

5. OF Alex Escobar turned 33 on Tuesday.

Phil Humber, Dave Kingman, Chris Schwinden, Juan Carlos Gamboa, Cory Mazzoni

Phil Humber:


Phil Humber had to make the Chicago White Sox's roster in spring training. Then he was expected to be a rotation fill-in while Jake Peavy was on the disabled list. Now, he's emerged as the team's best starter. Humber pitched seven shutout innings Saturday and the White Sox reached .500 for the first time since April 16, beating the Cubs 1-0. - http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=310702116&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines  


Dave Kingman:


Kingman has the most career homers of anyone on this bottom eight list, with a total of 442. But the 18.0 WAR he posted over his 15 year career was horrible, thanks to some awful defense in the oufield and a first base. A quarter of his career offensive value was lost due to that defense, using bWAR. He posted just three over 3.0 bWAR in his career just once, that beign 1979 where he led the league with 48 homers and a .956 OPS. But the awful defense and relatively short career ended up doing him in. - http://bloguin.com/theoutsidecorner/2011-articles/june/the-eight-worst-hitters-with-300-homers.html  


Chris Schwinden:


7-3-11: - http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/07/best-mets-minor-league-surprises-mid-season-edition.html   - Chris Schwinden – Buffalo, after two relief appearances with Bingo to start the season, the 6’3″ righty was quickly called up to Buffalo and placed in the starting rotation. He is the only prospect to show positive development at AAA this year while at the same time staying healthy. In 15 game starts, he is 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA. In 87.2 IP, he has given up a paltry 67 hits, with 75 K and 30 BB. His AAA opponents are hitting only .211 against him, and his WHIP is 1.11.


Juan Carlos Gamboa:


7-3-11: - The best bat so far on the GCL Mets team is shortstop Gamboa (.371/.436/.457/.893. The 20-year old played earlier this season in the Mexican League (.265), but his game has gone up a notch in Florida. He’s only 5-7, but he can run with the best of him.



Cory Mazzoni:


Mazonni made his first professional appearance for Brooklyn last night.


Mazzoni is an innings-eater: He has logged 1062/3 innings this year, 411/3 innings more than anyone else on N.C. State's staff. By having him pitch on Saturday, the Wolfpack bullpen could be saved for extended innings on Sunday. The junior right-hander has not given up a run in his last two starts covering 15 innings, victories over Boston College and Florida State. http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/06/03/1244333/avent-wont-gamble-again-will-play.html#ixzz1Obm2ZYVP  


MAZZONI outdueled Clemson ace Scott Weismann in the 4-0 series opener, with the 4-hit shutout vaulting the Wolfpack on to a series victory over the #16 Tigers. It was the first shutout posted by N.C. State since a combined shutout vs. Texas in 2004. The 6-1, 195-pound righthander matched his career high with 10 strikeouts in the impressive series opener, while facing only 35 batters, with a pair of walks. Clemson ranks among the nation’s top offenses, currently owning a .318 team batting average while averaging nearly eight runs scored per game. Clemson managed a 2-out double by Jeff Schaus in the opening frame and Richie Shaffer had a leadoff single up the middle in the 2nd – but Mazzoni then retired 16 consecutive batters (and 20 of the next 21). The Tigers tried to rally, loading the bases with 2-outs in the 8th, but Schaus popped up to shortstop to extend the shutout. Two runners were aboard in the 9th, but Mazzoni closed things out on a Will Lamb groundout and Jason Stolz flyout to right field – http://collegebaseball360.com/2011/03/30/georgia-tech-corner-infielder-matt-skole-n-c-state-ace-cory-mazzoni-lead-week-6-primetime-performers  


Cory Mazzoni has made strides this season, but he still lacks true upside. His fastball lacks movement and ranges from 89 to 93. He throws a workable changeup and a breaking ball that can be good at times. Mazzoni’s delivery is smooth and easy and he uses a 3/4 arm slot. His command has been inconsistent. http://mlbdraftguide.com/1/2011/04/25/cory-mazzoni-draft-profile  


4-18-11 from http://bullpenbanter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=410:college-baseball-weekend-09-observations&catid=18:articles&Itemid=11  on Cory Mazzoni: - Average height; thin and athletic; not projectable 3/4 arm slot with a low effort delivery Fastball without much movement; showed some good arm side run in the third but didn't last; 92 & 93 in the first, 92, 91 & 92 in the second, 89 in the third, 89 & 90 in the fifth, 91 in the sixth, 93 in the seventh (via announcer) Slider had hard 2-8 break early in the outing; worked well as a chase pitch; 81 in the first (via announcer) Curve ball has good shape and 1-7 movement; 79 & 81 in the first, 81 & 80 in the second (via announcer) Curve ball & slider started to blend together by the middle innings to the point where I started to wonder whether they were variations rather than unique pitches Straight change-up with some arm side run and drop; used judiciously and had hitters ahead of the pitch when he threw it; 81 in the second (via announcer) Fastball command was good in the first inning, but deserted him from that point on Fastball from the second inning on tended to be left up in the zone; hittable when he wasn't hitting his spots Command of his breaking ball(s) was significantly better; he often froze hitters with pitches on the black on both sides of the plate Got more aggressive in the strike zone when his command wouldn't let him hit corners with consistency


6-14-11: - http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/6/14/2222649/2011-mlb-draft-new-york-mets-review#storyjump  - 2) Cory Mazzoni, RHP, North Carolina State: Low-90s fastball, sometimes faster, good breaking ball, good splitter, interesting stats. Note outstanding K/BB and K/IP ratios. 3.30 ERA, 137/29 K/BB in 115 IP.


6-22-11: - Draft Update: - 2nd round (71st overall) pick, SP Cory Mazzoni, signed for $437,500. Slot figure was $514,800. That’s called under-slotting.

Michael Fulmer, Phil Humber, Terry Collins, Dillon Gee, Jose Reyes

.minorleagueball - 1S) Michael Fulmer, RHP, Oklahoma HS: Mid-90s fastball, good slider, needs better changeup but hardly a serious flaw at this point. Also has an Arkansas commitment


baseballamerica - White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper has worked his magic with (Phil) Humber this season as the 28-year-old suits up for his fourth organization. After entering the year with just 51 major league innings in six pro seasons, Humber has been one of Chicago's most effective starters in going 6-3, 2.95 through 12 starts (plus two relief outings). His stock had slipped so much that the Twins let him leave as a minor league free agent following the 2009 season—despite being one-quarter of the package received from the Mets for Johan Santana. Similarly, Miller helped the Tigers fetch Miguel Cabrera when the lefty still had his maximum trade value.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14246  - It takes some managers years to endure the trials that Terry Collins has in first season as the Mets' skipper. For starters, Collins is managing a team in the largest market in the country that still sought to secure a loan from Major League Baseball after owner Fred Wilpon lost a reported $700 million in his buddy Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme. In a recent feature story in the New Yorker, Wilpon had unflattering things to say about his team's three biggest stars, opining that third baseman David Wright "is not a superstar," shortstop Jose Reyes "would not get Carl Crawford money" in free agency, and right fielder Carlos Beltran was "60-70 percent of what he used to be." Collins has also been without his best starting pitcher all season, as left-hander Johan Santana’s rehab from last year's shoulder surgery continues. Santana suffered a setback over the weekend and likely won't be back next month, as the Mets had hoped.



http://bigbadbaseball.blogspot.com/2011/06/gee-this-cant-continueright.html  - Dillon Gee (Hong Kong crossover actor or porn star?) is 7-0. Now, no, he can't be Abb Vaughn (go back aways and you'll get the reference...) but he is one of the few genuinely bright lights in the New York Mets' rather soggy 2011. There is a lot of skepticism out there in the over-numerated world of baseball anal-y-sis concerning Dillon, however. It seems that he's living some kind of charmed life according to a series of "advanced metrics":



http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/6/14/2221852/comparing-2008-jose-reyes-to-2011  - Despite hitting only three home runs so far this season, Reyes has a wOBA of over .400 and a wOBA per swing of .223. Compare that to his .366 wOBA and .193 wOBA per swing in 2008. Looking at his production on a per swing basis allows us to filter out the value Reyes gets from stolen bases. Certainly, his 20 steals this year have helped mitigate his lack of home runs, but wOBA per swing isolates only value accrued by swinging the bat. From that perspective, Reyes has been better so far this year even without the long ball. The lack of home runs has largely been mitigated by triples. Based on 3-year averages in BABIP and HR/FB rates, Reyes should have roughly 15 2B, 5 3B, and 7 HR. Instead, Reyes has 19 2B, 11 3B, and 3 HR.*