PTBNL....Who is He? When Will he Make an Impact?

The trade is done....but the analysis is incomplete. 1B Ike Davis was traded for RP Zack Thornton and a PTBNL who "is a 2013 draftee of significant value" and "is the centerpiece of the deal." This tells me that the player is a Top 10 round draft pick. So lets take a look at who those guys are.

The "Highway Robbery" Guys
CF Austin Meadows- 1st round- 19 yrs old - Extended Spring Training

• The Pirates Compensentory pick for failing to sign Mark Appel in 2012 has been drawing heavy comps to Cincinnati's Jay Bruce. Meadows was a huge Mets target in the 2013 draft but was nabbed 2 picks before them. He has the potential to develop into a .270 hitter with 25+ HR and 90 RBIs. That potential also comes with 120+ K's as well. He was assigned to the GCL last season where he hit .294 with 5 HRs and 20 RBIs in 43 games. The Mets have a number of OF prospects in the lower levels right now in Jared King, Ivan Wilson, Bradley Marquez, and Champ Stuart, but none of them carry the potential Meadows has.

C Reese McGuire- 1st round- 19 year old- Single-A West Virginia

• A BP Top 60 player, McGuire was seen as a sure fire 1st rounder, but not someone who should go high in the draft. He's seen as a top rated defensive catcher with chance to develop some offensive potential. However BP grades him out as a potential .250-.260 hitter that can hit 15 HRs. While the profile isn't sexy, the Mets organization is thin at catcher at the lower levels with Jeff Glenn and Colton Plaia manning the dish for Savannah. So far in A-ball, McGuire is hitting .216 with 4 RBIs in 10 games.

The "Much Needed" Lefties

LHP Blake Taylor- 2nd round- 18 years old- Extended Spring Training

• Much like the Mets system, the Pirates organization is heavy on RH pitching prospect but lacking in lefties. Taylor is a highly projectable guy who currently has a 90-92 mph FB and a plus Curve. At 220 lbs he won't add much more velocity but his FB could become a premium pitch if he can harness his control. His lack of a 3rd pitch limits how quickly he can advance in the system though and he seems like he's at least 4-5 years away from helping a big league team.

LHP Cody Dickson- 4th round- 22 years old- Single-A West Virginia

• Dickson is pretty much a mirror image of Taylor except 4 years older. 91-93 mph FB from the left side with questionable control and a plus Curveball. His 3rd pitch is a change-up which is currently a below average pitch. Dickson perform well in the NY-Penn League last season with a 9.3 K/9 rate but did display those control issues walking 24 in 57 IP. While the system is starving for left handed starters it's hard to see Alderson liking either one of these guys without a third pitch.

The "Solid" Grab

2B/SS/CF JaCoby Jones- 3rd round- 22 years old- Single-A West Virginia

• Make sure that "C" is capitalized! JaCoby is a high upside speed/athleticism tools play that has spent time at 2B, SS, and CF. While Jon Heyman has stated that "he looks like he can be a star ballplayer," his swing is ugly and will need to be re-built and quick frankly he hasn't performed to warrant his upside. JaCoby received a full season assignment and so far looks good hitting .288 with a HR, 8 RBI's, and 2 SB. While Meadows is superior to the group of CF's the Mets have now, JaCoby seems to be the same type as them, especially King who is currently in Savannah.

The "We've Given up on Cechinni" Guys

SS Trae Arbet- 5th round- 19 years old- Extended Spring Training

SS Adam Frazier- 6th round- 22 years old- Advanced Single-A Bradenton

• If Alderson nabs either one of these two guys, it may signal that he no longer has confidence in Gavin Cechinni's ability to stick at SS long term. The Bucs went over-slot to grab Arbet who is regarded as a good all around offensive SS who has a fringy arm and fringe range at SS. In 38 games at SS for the GCL Pirates last season, Arbet did commit 21 errors. Frazier on the other hand is High IQ defensive whiz at SS with an advanced feel for the strike zone. This comes with practically 0 power though as he hit exactly 0 HRs in the 3 yr college career.

The "Never Have Enough Arms" Righties

RHP Buddy Borden- 7th round- 22 years old- Single-A West Virginia

RHP Neil Kozikowski- 8th round- 19 years old- Extended Spring Training

RHP Chad Kuhl- 9th round- 21 years old- Advanced Single-A Bradenton

RHP Shane Carle- 10th round- 22 years old- Single-A West Virginia 

Look you can never have enough pitching prospect. Even though the Mets system is flooded with RH arms I wouldn't be surprised to see Alderson grab another one. Borden and Kuhl were both Pitchers of the Year in their respective conferences and both feature low 90's FB's (though Borden can reach 96), and curveballs/change-ups that could be league average pitches. At 6' 4" Kozikowski has a ton of room to add velocity to his low 90's FB but is a young who is years away from helping a team. Lastly, Carle is another tall lanky righty who makes a living off of his heavy low 90's sinker.

Draft 13 – Daniel Ayers, Reese McGuire, Ryan Boldt, Ryan Healy, Drew Ward

Daniel Ayers, LHP, Columbus HS (IN) - The 6’-3”, 205-pound southpaw has been dealing this season. On May 7, he tossed seven shutout innings, striking out a season-high 16 batters to two walks. Over six starts, he has a 0.73 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 72 K/18 BB over 37 innings, allowing just 14 hits. His fastball sits in the 89-91 mph range with movement and both his curveball and slider are decent offerings, both sitting in the mid-70s. He has great mound presence and feel for pitching, and his size suggests there is still more in the tank. Committed to Western Michigan  LINK

Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood HS (WA) - The 6’-1” left-handed hitter has not struck out in his last 70 plate appearances. Over 25 games this season, he is hitting .419/.546/.770 and has drawn 21 walks to just two strikeouts. He has 11 doubles, three triples, three home runs and has added nine stolen bases. For all of the talk about his plus defensive abilities, including an arm that is becoming legendary, the kid can stroke it at the plate and has shown a great approach at the plate. Mix that with a high character and he should hear his name called in the first 15 picks in the 2013 MLB draft. LINK

Ryan Boldt, OF, Nebraska 40% - Boldt got hurt this spring and will play minimally, if at all, prior to the draft. That means a team will have to go out on a limb to take him in a signable area. That means he may end up at Nebraska. LINK

Ryon Healy, Oregon - There was a time not too long ago when Ryon Healy was a No. 1 prospect. That is, relative to all other prospects in the California Collegiate League back in 2010. Of all the youngsters he observed, John Manuel of Baseball America had Healy pegged as the best. He was even good enough at the time to invite comparisons to Scott Rolen and Evan Longoria. Those comps don't apply now. Healy was a third baseman, but has gone on to primarily play first base at Oregon. The folks at Baseball America (subscription) think there's at least a chance Healy could be given a shot to play third at the pros, but it sounds like first base is going to be his permanent home. LINK

Drew Ward, Leedey (Leedey, Okla.) - Re-classified as a senior, Ward was previously regarded as the top player in the Class of 2014. Playing against mostly small school competition, Leedey has dominated, batting .556 with 40 RBI, 55 runs scored, seven doubles, three triples and nine home runs. He also drew 56 walks during his senior season as few teams decided to pitch to Ward. A shortstop in high school, Ward has a strong enough arm to play third, but he could end up at first base, according to some reports. LINK

Draft 13 – Cavan Biggio, Dominic Smith, Reese McGuire, Scott Frazier

Cavan Biggio, St. Thomas Catholic (Houston, Texas)

The son of former MLB all-star Craig Biggio, Cavan could play second base at the next level, but is also a possible third baseman. Biggio's stock has risen considerably since last year. He had an outstanding tour with Team USA 18U during the summer and had another strong year at the high school level with a .407 batting average, 33 RBI, eight doubles, three triples and seven home runs. More than likely a compensatory round pick, Biggio could sneak into the bottom of the first round. LINK

Dan Kirby‏@DanMKirby - Dominic Smith just tripled in 2 runs for Serra HS. Now has a pretty decent .784 OBP over last 9+ games w/ 2 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR.

Reese McGuire, Kentwood HS (WA) - McGuire possesses the best defensive skills of all catchers in this year’s draft crop. McGuire has a cannon for an arm and great athletic ability behind the plate that includes premier blocking ability and maneuverability. He has a good, strong frame and has showcased the ability to drive the ball with power, but still remains raw in terms of offense, as he may need to develop the mechanics of his plate discipline. McGuire should project to be an everyday catcher in the future based upon his plus defensive ability, and could become an all-around star player if the right adjustments are made to his offensive game. LINK

Player:  Scott Frazier

Position:  RHP

School:  Pepperdine

Date of Birth:  12/3/1991

Height/Weight:  6’7/230

Bats/Throws:  R/R

2013 Class:  College Junior

Previously Drafted:  2010, 5th Rd, Phillies

Scouting Report:

Size, velocity, and potential to be drafted early

Low 90′s fastball, touches 96

Change projects as average or slightly above

Change sits 80-82

Slider projects as below average to average

3/4 armslot

Improved mechanics will be key to future success - 

LINK

Draft 13 – Corey Ray, Eric Jagielo, Reese McGuire, Kevin Ziomek, Phillip Ervin

 

Corey Ray, OF, Simeon HS (IL) - Playing in the same backyard as the Cubs, Ray is a 5’-11”, 190-pound left-hander who is a quick-twitch athlete with very good speed, as well as excellent bat speed. His short, compact swing allows him to make consistent contact and drive the ball to all fields and more power should come as he matures. He has a strong arm, and both his speed and instincts allow him to play all three outfield spots. The weather was brutal for baseball players in Chicago this spring creating many rain outs and cold-weather games. In 15 recorded games, he has hit .381 with nine extra-base hits, nine stolen bases and has drawn 13 walks for a .536 OBP/.643 SLG. He could be available when the Cubs pick at 108. Committed to Louisville. http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2013-mlb-draft-25-high-upside-targets-for-chicago-cubs/32522/#MvYdf3hwz57dhWIe.99  

Eric Jagielo is a third baseman right now, but he could end up shifting to first base or a corner outfield spot in the pros because he doesn't have the softest hands or the most accurate throwing arm. Regardless, what Jagielo does really well is hit. He controls the strike zone well, thanks to good pitch recognition, solid hand-eye coordination and plus bat speed. He also projects to hit for plus power. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1600761-ranking-the-10-fastest-rising-2013-mlb-draft-prospects/page/7

 

Before Reese McGuire can think too much about the MLB Draft, he wants to lead Kentwood High School to another state championship. The highly touted catcher helped the Conquerors win the 4A (Washington’s largest classification) title last year, and another trophy would cap an unforgettable senior season. “The season is great,” McGuire told me. “We got first in league, so it was awesome. Our pitching stepped up and everyone has done their part to make the team better.” Even though he’s focused on “the now,” McGuire isn’t afraid to look ahead to the MLB Draft in a few weeks. http://allaroundtim.com/reese-mcguire-ready-for-mlb-draft/

Kevin Ziomek, Vanderbilt - The 6'3" Ziomek drew some early buzz because of a blistering start in which he shut down his opponents and missed a ton of bats.  He hasn't sustained that pace but he's still firmly entrenched as a 2nd round option.  For Cubs fans, there is the obvious connection with minor league pitching coordinator Derek Johnson -- so it would seem the Cubs would know more about Ziomek than any other team. http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/05/mlb-draft-2nd-round-the-college-lefties/

 

Phillip Ervin's only chance to play Division I baseball came from Samford, and in three weeks he'll likely be the highest drafted player from the state of Alabama. And if you're in Birmingham and want to see him play up close and in person, this Thursday and Friday is your last chance. http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2013/05/samfords_phillip_ervin_the_sta.html

Mack Ade – Chris Rivera, Lee Mazilli Jr., NKOTB, Reese McGuire, Hunter Hayes

Tracking baseball prospects does have areas that are pretty predictable. One is looking up a high school senior’s stats from previous years and being impressed with what has been reported to sites like MaxPreps.

I hate high school baseball statistics. I have no idea the quality of opponent these kids have played against.

I’m always reminded of one of my local high schools here in Hardeeville, South Carolina, the Abundant Life Academy. It was a private school that allowed its coach to recruit home schooled travel team veterans in a three county radius, something no public school could do. The result was ALA won the State Championship for, like, six years in a row.

All of this sounds very impressive until you get a look at the lack of quality on the teams they played against. Some had less than 15 total players on their team. Their pitchers threw in the high 70s and there was some years that the vast majority of the games were ended early due to the lopsided scores at the time. Every ALA starter hit well over .300. Pitchers K/9 stats were off the charts. It was a statistic smorgasbord.

So, naturally, I expected to see the same thing when I went to MaxPreps to get Chris Rivera’s stats for this portion of my weekly column. I first looked up his sophomore year:

          .359/.490, 28-H, 18-RBI, 21-R

Sounds normal… next came last season:

          .194/.283, 18-H, 14-RBI, 19-R, .909-FP

Was I missing something here? This is the guy that Matt Garrioch says is the number one pick overall and The Bleacher Report has at #4.

No one questions Rivera’s ability to play the position. The comparisons quickly go to the likes of Christian Colon, though his speed is slower. The interesting part of his game was the success he had last year as a pitcher, sitting in the 91-92 range.

I had talked to him early this year about his 2012 stats:

Mack – Chris, I want to jump ahead to the 2011-2012 season at El Dorado. Tell us about what went right and what went wrong last season?

Rivera – “Well what went wrong was I didn’t hit the way I wanted to, but  did play the defense I knew how to play and I pitched well for my team. As a team, we did a lot of things right, and I couldn’t have been any more proud to be a part of the team.”

I checked back in with him this week to see how the team was preparing for the new season:

for the rest...  click here... http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/2013/02/02/mack-ade-chris-rivera-lee-mazilli-jr-nkotb-reese-mcguire-hunter-hayes/  

2013 Draft-Notes - Eric Fisher, Reese McGuire, PG Games

1B Eric Fisher, Arkansas -- Fisher didn't factor into the equation for the Hogs last season, but hopes to do so in 2012. He had a very solid summer, hitting .307 with nine doubles, two triples, two homers and 29 RBIs. He also had a .423 OBP with nine stolen bases. PG

Reese McGuire was called the top defensive catcher in the class by announcers and he looked the part during the game.  He showed quickness behind the plate and a strong, accurate arm.  He also did a nice job blocking a ball in the dirt. - BLF

Kendall Rogers‏ - Florida 2013 commit, LHP AJ Puk is an absolute monstrous presence on the mound. Working his off-speed stuff here early… TAMU commit  Kohl Stewart 93-95 MPH with a 87 MPH slider!... UCLA 2013 commit Jonah Wesely looks like he's ready to go for Bruins today. Very impressive-looking specimen. 6-foot-2, 215… 15 year Mayky Perez from the DR up to 90 MPH…

Perfect Game -  AJ Puk (IA)easily sat 90-91 for the East team… Kevin Davis (AL) 92-93 mph with a sharp 79 MPH curveball for the East!...  Stephen Gonsalves (CA) up to 92 MPH for the West… Brett Morales up to 94 for the East…

Matt Grabusky‏ -  Kevin Davis showing a nice curve 76-79… strong inning for Derik Beauprez, 90-91, 2 k's…

Nathan Rode‏ - LHP Stephen Gonsalves just started that new arm swing/delivery at the USA Baseball trials to get in a better rhythm

Patrick Ebert‏ -  Derik Beauprez with a really sharp 1-2-3 8th inning, 2 Ks as West heads to 9th leading 7-6…

Jonah Wesely‏ -  PITCHING IN THE ALL-AMERICAN GAME WAS THE GREATEST AND MOST FUN EXPERIENCE OF MY LIFE! THANKS EVERYONE FOR THE SUPPORT! I LOVE YOU ALL!

Nick Ciuffo‏ -  Had fun at the PG All American game. Thanks to Perfect Game USA for the experience. Hope I made Lexington proud

Travis Demeritte‏ -  Game was BEYOND awesome !!! Thank you for everyone that watched !!!

Kacy Clemens‏ -  Wow... The PG All American Game was a memory I'll never forget. I had Such a blast out there! PETCO Park was awesome. I'm sad it's all over!

Reese McGuire‏ -  I want to thank everyone who supported me back at home tonight! Love an miss all y'all. Appreciate the support more than you might believe!

Cavan Biggio‏ -  Awesome experience at the PG All American Classic. So thankful for the opportunity to play in the game. Thanks to Perfect Game USA

Rob Kaminsky‏ - PG All American was something special.. Thank you for something i will never forget.

2013 Draft-Notes - Yale Rosen, Reese McGuire, Stuff

The first hitting star of the night from June 26th is Yale Rosen of the Newport Gulls by way of Washington State University. Yale went 3 for 5, with two home runs and five runs batted in. He also scored three runs in the Gulls 12-7 win over the Muskrats. Yale Rosen

Player:  Reese McGuire -  Position:  C   School:  Kentwood (WA)   Date of Birth:  3/2/1995   Height/Weight:  6’1/190   Bats/Throws:  L/R   2013 Class:  Senior   Committed To:  San Diego  Scouting Report:  Reese McGuire is a lefthanded hitting catcher with the ability to affect the game offensively and defensively.  He enters the summer of 2012 as the top Northwest position prospect for the 2013 MLB Draft.  For the rest of the scouting report: http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/2012/06/25/2013-mlb-draft-profile-reese-mcguire/  

Sabr convention hashtag:  #SABR42 

Astros George Springer has hit his 15th Home Run at High-A Lancaster 

Red Sox sign Taiwanese SS Tzu-Wei Lin for $2.05 million 

Turkey Deploys Antiaircraft Units Along Syrian Border 

Adam Rubin –                                                     

After posting a 6.07 ERA in May, Jon Niese finished June with three wins and a 1.89 ERA. 

Kevin Goldstein‏ -

                          Q - Jackie Bradley is now dominating Double-A. What's his ceiling?

                        A - CF with plus D and high OBP. VERY valuable.

Q - Does age generally trump "newness to baseball" where prospects are concerned?

                        A - Absolutely. 

Dodgers sign Cuban prospect Yasiel Puig. 

Buster Olney‏ -

Dodgers have scouted Bryan LaHair, and like other teams, they have concerns about defense. Maybe that won't matter, because they need help.

This is great: Giancarlo Stanton will be in the Home Run Derby.

Jim Callis –

Q - If a team pays for college, does that count against the bonus pool?

A – No.

Updating the numbers ... Nationals can pay Lucas Giolito $3,034,710 w/o forfeiting a pick

Pirates can pay Mark Appel $3,837,575 w/o losing a 2013 draft pick.

Cubs can go to $4,156,395 for Albert Almora w/o relinquishing a pick

           

Frankie Piliere‏ -

As nasty as he looks Carlos Rodon looks rusty or just off command wise tonight

Jason Churchiil –

For those emailing about Tony Cingrani: 90-93 FB, plus change with sink and fade, mediocre breaking ball, questionable delivery/arm action.

Jonathan C. Mitchell‏ -

Red Sox 1st pick Deven Marrero hitting .500/.538/.750 with a HR in first 3 pro games… Rangers supplemental pick Joey Gallo has a HR, 3B, and 11 BB in first 5 pro games… White Sox supplemental pick Keon Barnum already has 3 HR and 8 H in first 5 pro games… Reds supplemental 1st round pick Jesse Winker with 2 2B and 6 BB in first 8 games…