The Morning Report 12.24.2015 | Mets "Adding Depth"?, Mets Following the Off-Season Plan, Monell Clears Waivers, Mets Lose 3 MILB Free Agents

Adding depth. We’ve officially agreed to a 1-year deal with Alejandro De Aza. #Mets pic.twitter.com/gqwXlrE80v

— New York Mets (@Mets) December 23, 2015

(Chris Soto: The Mets added another layer of questioning behind the whole De Aza signing fiasco. After multiple team insiders reported that De Aza was brought in to be the other half of a lefty/righty platoon with Lagares, the team published this tweet officially announcing the signing....."Adding Depth". What does this mean? De Aza's $5.75M salary certainly is quite a bit to pay for a pure bench piece.....but why would they go out of their way to make that statement?)


Joe D. | Metsmerized Online- The Mets signed a left-handed outfielder to platoon with Juan Lagares on Monday- which by the way was the team’s stated goal from the moment the hot stove season started. I thought the De Aza signing was the first misstep by the Mets this offseason. Before that I applauded every single move they’ve made. Walker is a significant upgrade all-around from Daniel Murphy and Asdrubal Cabrera is a shortstop with some power who, while he may not be the defensive stalwart you were expecting, when you have 80 percent of your rotation with strikeout rates above 10.5 that becomes barely an issue. It also frees up Wilmer Flores to become that super-utility guy I always envisioned for him.

(Chris Soto: This whole Alejandro De Aza story has really over exploded. Joe is right.....this was the Mets plan from Day 1 and they've been saying it ALL off-season. Statistically speaking, Walker is an upgrade over Murphy, Cabrera IS an upgrade over Flores, and Flores as the UT guy is an upgrade over Kelly Johnson. Now the duo of Lagares/De Aza is a step down offensively from a full season of Cespedes but as good as Cespedes was in August and early September for the Mets.....he was equally awful in late September and October. So yea, the overall stats take a hit, but the club probably gets more consistent offensive contributions. Most important in this whole thing, though, is the fact that Cespedes is STILL a Free Agent! The off-season is not over, and while the chances are small, there is still a chance that the Mets reverse course and sign him if the price is right. It's not like the team is forced to make De Aza and Lagares their starter. The club could very easily use them on the bench which would make them a nice upgrade over the 2 OF's we entered the off-season with [Kirk and Ceciliani])

HOT STOVE REPORT (courtesy of mlbtraderumor.com)

• C Johnny Monell has cleared waivers and has been assigned to AAA Las Vegas. Monell was DFA'd last week to make room on the 40 man roster for SP Bartolo Colon.
• The Mets lost 3 more minor league free agents as the mass exodus from their upper level teams continue.
• Both LHRP Scott Rice and RHP Tim Stauffer signed minor league contracts with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
• RHRP Jon Velasquez also signed a minor league contract to go play for the Washington Nationals 

The Morning Report 3.12.2015 | Edgin dodges a Bullet, Thor Dominates, Gee Adjusting to Bullpen Life, Flores 2015 Projection.

Adam Rubin | ESPN New York- “Left-handed reliever Josh Edgin may escape his current elbow issue with "rest and rehab." Mets officials were still awaiting more details from team doctor David Altchek, the source added. A second source added that surgery -- either Tommy John, or something more benign like the removal of the bone spur that Edgin was diagnosed as having last August -- did not seem necessary"

(Chris Soto: Sounds like Edgin has dodged a bullet. Irregardless, it doesn't sound like he will be ready for the start of the season and is likely to open the year on the DL. The chances of Scott Rice and Sean Gilmartin making the team has risen significantly because of this despite both of them having 13.50 ERA's so far this Spring. However, don't sleep on Dario Alvarez. He has thrown well so far in his 3 IP striking out 4 along the way.)


David Lennon | Newsday- "That ain't fair," one Marlin said. "They need to give us aluminum bats or something." ...Wednesday must have felt like looking down the barrel of a gun for the Marlins -- from the wrong end. Syndergaard made...an impression, maybe because the Marlins previously were unfamiliar with the 6-6 blond giant who threw "thunderbolts." Syndergaard struck out five in his 2 2/3 scoreless innings and allowed only one hit.

(Chris Soto: Harvey was a bit sluggish yesterday and spent the afternoon working on his slider and curveball more than in his previous start but then Thor came in and absolutely stole the show. He was pumping fastballs in the zone between 97-99 mph and Marlins batters were beyond outmatched. In my opinion...the most impressive thing is that it's only March 12th and these velocities are already off the charts. By the time April 6th rolls around...everyone should have an extra 2-3 ticks on their respective fastballs.)

 

Mike Puma | New York Post- Dillon Gee still is getting used to the whole bullpen routine. “[Gee] is very awkward at it,” manager Terry Collins said. "It’s a whole different role for him and you could see it as he came in that inning; he hung back–to-back sliders, which he never does. It’s a new phase in his game and we’re going to continue to run him out there in those situations.” “I felt fine and I am pretty pleased the way it went,” Gee said. “I just wish I would have made a better pitch to that first guy.”

(Chris Soto: I continue to stand my ground when saying that Gee and Montero are not "natural" fits for bullpen roles. They both require additional time to warm up in the bullpen and neither guy possesses a "premium" pitch that can play up in the bullpen. For what it's worth though, Gee was hitting 91 mph in the bullpen yesterday which was his max last season. Based on that info it seems like Gee's fastball could play up to 93 mph out of the pen once the season gets going.)


Brian Joura | Mets 360- While most people fret about his defense, Flores has not really hit yet in the majors. In 375 PA in MLB, Flores has a .635 OPS and a lowly .264 BABIP. But, in his last 26 games, Flores posted a .290/.327/.500 line in 107 PA. In this stretch, 12 of his 29 hits went for extra-bases, including four homers. Our official forecast [.265 AVG/.310 OBP/.400 SLG, 11 HR, 55 RBI] leans much more to the optimistic side, [but] can Flores produce a .290 BABIP in the majors?

(Chris Soto: I think the Mets 360 group's forecast is actually pretty spot on...A .710 OPS would be amongst the Top 7 MLB SS in terms of offense and is far better than anything the team has had over the prior 3 years. The 11 HR and 55 RBIs though are based on only 484 Plate Appearance. If he gets a full season of 600+, I think he can reach 15 HR and 70 RBI.)

FLASH: Scott Rice re-signs with Mets

     The Mets have announced that the organization has re-signed LHRP Scott Rice to a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training camp. The club expects Rice to be fully recovered from season ending surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. After an extremely successful rookie campaign in 2013 as the team's primary "LOOGY" reliever, Rice took a huge step back in terms of control in 2014 posting a BB/9 rate of 7.9 per 9 innings.

Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (Bullpen)

    We have clearly improved at the C, SS, and CF positions even though the players are the same. We expect the same lackluster production at 1B, and the same solid production at 2B and 3B. As we stated before, LF looks like its a real wild card since we still have no idea who's going to be starting and RF should be at least equal to last year's production but has a chance to be a bit better. The rotation is obviously not the same without Harvey, but the current group of guys may surprise you. Last but not least lets take a look at the bullpen.

(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)

2013

Players: Scott Rice, LaTroy Hawkins, Scott Atchison, Bobby Parnell, David Aardsma, Brandon Lyon, Josh Edgin, Greg Burke, Gonzalez German, Pedro Feliciano, Carlos Torres, Vic Black, Rob Carson
Stats: 26-31, 3.98 ERA, 40 SV, 10 SO, 178 BB, 392 K, .256 BAA
(22nd in MLB ERA)

     Let's not beat around the bush for this part. The bullpen flat out stunk in 2013. Yea they finished 22nd thanks to a strong end to the season but only 3 teams gave up more runs than the Mets bullpen (Colorado, Houston, and Seattle). The same 3 teams were also the only ones who had higher BAA then the Mets. The bullpen even finished dead last in K's by a wide margin of 26.

     Parnell was the only household name in the pen last season and was excellent saving 22 games with a 2.16 ERA and even winning 5 games in the process. However a neck injury cut his season short leaving the bullpen to a bunch of minor league call-ups and spring training invite guys.

     Rice was a pleasant surprise in 2013 but heavy usage in April and May, due to Edgin's poor performance and demotion to AAA, led to him imploding in June to the tune of a .423 BAA and a 10.50 ERA. Once Edgin, was re-promoted to take some of the burden off him, both pitchers performed admirably posting sub 1.50 ERA's in July and August.

     Hawkins was also a pleasant surprise posting a 2.93 ERA and converting 13 Saves in Parnell absence. In fact, the 40 year old was the most consistent pitcher all year long and finished strong with 7 saves in September while giving up 0 runs and only 7 hits.

     Unfortunately after those 3 guys the rest of the pen was dismal. Aardsma had one good month before sporting a 5.00+ ERAs the rest of the way. Lyon and his 4.98 ERA was released halfway through the season after showing that he couldn't a be a set up man to Parnell (6.12 ERA in non save situation appearances). Atchison's old UCL-less arm couldn't stay healthy and couldn't strike anyone out (5.2 K/9) while Burke and his 5.68 ERA racked up some serious frequent flyer miles between NY and Vegas.

2014

Closer: Bobby Parnell: 28 SV, 3.15 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9

Set-Up: Victor Black: 3.50 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 4.6 BB/9
LOOGY: Scott Rice: 3.77 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 4.1 BB/9
ROOGY: Jeurys Familia: 3.66 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 4.2 BB/9
RH MR: Gonzalez German: 3.41 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
LH MR: Josh Edgin: 3.84 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 4.0 BB/9
Long Man: Carlos Torres: 3.92 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9

     Much like the projections for the rotation, we need to take the bullpen projections with a grain of salt. That said, these numbers do not look that bad at all. One obvious thing that stands out is that this pen is going to be built on young power arms and will not repeat as the league's worst K machines. At the same time this group is also projecting to be one of the most inexperienced with only 9 years of MLB service time between them (Of which 5 years belongs to Parnell). The oldest guy in the bunch (Rice) will only be in his 2nd MLB season.

     This pen has some potential and is either going to be very energetic and strong armed or is going to implode in our faces. It will all depend on how Terry Collins uses them. Our saving grace here is that Jeff Walters, Jack Leathersich, Chase Huchingson, Cory Mazzoni, and Jacob DeGrom are all ready to hold a spot in the pen if any of these guys falter.

    Also from a statistical standpoint you can't be much worse then last year's group

Verdict: Massive volatility due to inexperience but at a bare minimum will be a push. Could possibly finish at moderate improvement if group can keep the BB rates in check.


You can't analyze the Mets pen without throwing in how they are managed.

It's like going to The Palm Restaurant, ordering the Filet, and asking for a bottle of ketchup.

First thing first... the starters have to average at least six innings per game. That happens, they may have enough here.

I still think there is one more outsider that will be signed for the pen. Until then, I'll reserve judgement. 

That Was Good Rice

The story of Scott Rice began all the way back in 1999 when he was drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the 14th round. 14 years later, Rice has reached the climax of his story by playing in his first MLB season for the New York Mets. The turning point in his career came after years of minor and independent league, where Rice stayed ever committed to his dream and it finally paid off.

Unfortunately, today he will undergo surgery to repair a sports hernia that will end a season for the surprisingly effective lefty. His final line for the season: a 4-5 record to go along with a 3.71 ERA that included 41 strikeouts and 27 walks. In case you're bad at math, he ended up with 14 more k's than bb's in his 73 appearances, which is the most in the majors at this point of the season.

The numbers 14 and 73 aren't just special to Rice, they should without a doubt strike a cord with all Mets fans. Gil Hodges' number 14 was retired in '73 after his stint as the manager of the Miracle Mets. Scott Rice should stay with the Mets simply for his wonderful reminder of the past through numerology, but it also goes without saying that he earned the right stick with this team in 2014. Hmm... there's that number again.

Scott Rice mauled left-handers to the tune of a .174 average against and struggled with an average of .362 against righties. and the Mets put him to work in the same way they did, Pedro Feliciano.  Rice should easily take up the Lefty's only role  next year and he should thrive in it. He also will deserve it. Rice performed admirably in a bullpen that wasn't expected to be any good at all this season. One of the few bright spots and great stories on this Mets team.

Scott Rice came into the season with little fanfare. If anything, he was in the spotlight for being so unknown. 2013 has been the year of well known studs. We have eaten up every start from the likes of Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler. We have drooled over prospects in the works like Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero, but we have never stopped to appreciate plain old Scott Rice. All he did was do his job, a job that has been a long time in the making.

His career has been a slow cook but any good chef will tell you that rice is best when you give it some time. Scott Rice's time has come and I'll be rooting for him to make an impact in what should be an interesting bullpen next year. Too bad Frank Francisco won't be back. I love chicken and rice.

 

Mack Stuff - Scott Rice, Carlos Torres, Jamie Hoffman, 40-Man Additions

-Scott Rice is another of those first round draft picks that just didn’t happen. He was picked and signed as the 44^th overall pick in the 1999 draft by the Baltimore Orioles, who he pitched eight seasons for. Originally a starter, Rice was converted to the pen and strung together three good seasons (2004-AA: 41-G, 3.66…  2005-AA: 57-G, 3.27… 2006-AAA: 52-G, 3.86. They weren’t great because of his high BB/IP ratio, which has stuck with him throughout his career. Beginning in 2007, Rice bounced around the league, playing for six more teams, three of which were in the Indy Leagues. Last year, in AAA-LAD, he went 2-3, 4.40, 1.35, 54-G, 9-SV, 59.1-IP, 47-K, 22-BB. Rice will pitch 2013 as a 31-year old and has never pitched a pitch in the majors. Minor record over 13-years: 34-52, 3.87, 1.43. Rice has had horrible luck. He got a call-up to the Orioles (2006) but broke his finger in his hotel room door the night before and never made it. The, in 2007, he blew out his flexor tendon. One botched surgery and 2 ½ years later, he had to go play Indy ball and start over. Big boy… 6-7. Observation:  I have no idea why the Mets keep signing pitchers like this.

-And you thought the Scott Rice signing was strange… Carlos Torres was a 15^th round draft pick by the Chicago White Sox in 1999. Chicgao bounced him around between a starter and a relief pitcher, sort of like Jenrry Mejia has been handled by the Mets. He left the White Sox and played for Yomuiri in Japan (2011: 6-G, 2-0, 6.26), but then returned to the States last year for Colorado. He started well in AAA (14-G, 13-ST, 5-4, 3.98, 61.1-IP, 59-K), but faltered as a reliever in the ‘Bigs’: 31-G, 5.26. Torres has a lifetime 3.54-ERA in eight minor league seasons. The 6-2 righty will play 2013 as a 30-year old. Scouting report:

Torres is a three pitch pitcher who features a fastball, curve and change. The fastball is Torres bread and butter, not because of the velocity, which is good (90-93), but because of the movement. Torres’ best fastball is his cutter but he also features a 2-seam and 4-seam fastball. This enables Torres to effectively run his fastball in on righties and away on lefties which helps set-up his curve, which along with his cutter is his strikeout pitch on righties. His change is a very effective pitch on lefties. Despite lacking above average secondary stuff, Torres will have a shot at having prolonged Major League success. It will most likely come as a spot-starter/back of the pen reliever and that success will hinge upon his ability to spot his fastball and have good enough secondary stuff to keep hitters honest. Thus far he’s been able to do just that at the minor league level, so now it’s just a matter of doing it in the Majors consistently.

Observation – same same as Rice.

The Mets also signed OF Jamie Hoffmann to a Minor League contract. The Dodgers signed Hoffman as an undrafted free agent in 2003, out of New Ulm High School, in Minnesota. He played eight seasons in the Dodger chain, his best season being in 2010 for AAA-Albuquerque (.310/.369/.431/.800, 8-HR, 74-RBI). He has had 26 major league at-bats, but his 3814-AB minor league career (9-yrs, .287), include 725-Ks. Hoffman will play 2013 as a 28-year old, bats right, and has played all three outfield positions and third base. 

Observation: Crikies…

Mets add RHPs Zack Wheeler, Hansel Robles, Gonzalez Germen and Greg Burke, LHP Darin Gorski and INF Wilfredo Tovar to the 40-man roster.

                 

                     -an interesting list… no one will question the choice of Wheeler and one can easily justify giving Gorski another year to hopefully duplicate what he did two years ago. Past that, I am surprised (my choices were Armando Rodriguez and Eric Campbell).  It is now obvious that the Mets have bigger plans for Burke than we all thought (he has pitched very well in the winter league). He also had 44 appearances between AA/AAA for Baltimore last year and had an identical 1.53 at both levels. I have no idea why Baltimore dropped him. Regarding Robles, he has impressed in his first two years stateside, including 12 starts last year for Brooklyn (6-1, 1.11, 0.78). Frankly, I don’t understand either the Germen or Tovar decisions. Germen is an innings eater, but he simply was an unsuccessful starter in 2012 at Binghamton (8-12, 4.59). I assume this means he will be moved to the pen because there just isn’t any room for him in either the AAA or AA rotation. Tovar is the perfect example of someone that makes a 40-man because there is an opening, not because he has earned it. Yes, he’s the best defensive infielder in the system, but he has a limited bat with no pop. The Mets have enough of them.