We have clearly improved at the
C,
SS, and CF positions even though the players are the same. We expect the same lackluster production at
1B, and the same solid production at
2B and 3B. As we stated before, LF looks like its a real wild card since we still have no idea who's going to be starting and RF should be at least equal to last year's production but has a chance to be a bit better. The rotation is obviously not the same without Harvey, but the current group of guys may surprise you. Last but not least lets take a look at the bullpen.
(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)
2013
Players: Scott Rice, LaTroy Hawkins, Scott Atchison, Bobby Parnell, David Aardsma, Brandon Lyon, Josh Edgin, Greg Burke, Gonzalez German, Pedro Feliciano, Carlos Torres, Vic Black, Rob Carson
Stats: 26-31, 3.98 ERA, 40 SV, 10 SO, 178 BB, 392 K, .256 BAA
(22nd in MLB ERA)
Let's not beat around the bush for this part. The bullpen flat out stunk in 2013. Yea they finished 22nd thanks to a strong end to the season but only 3 teams gave up more runs than the Mets bullpen (Colorado, Houston, and Seattle). The same 3 teams were also the only ones who had higher BAA then the Mets. The bullpen even finished dead last in K's by a wide margin of 26.
Parnell was the only household name in the pen last season and was excellent saving 22 games with a 2.16 ERA and even winning 5 games in the process. However a neck injury cut his season short leaving the bullpen to a bunch of minor league call-ups and spring training invite guys.
Rice was a pleasant surprise in 2013 but heavy usage in April and May, due to Edgin's poor performance and demotion to AAA, led to him imploding in June to the tune of a .423 BAA and a 10.50 ERA. Once Edgin, was re-promoted to take some of the burden off him, both pitchers performed admirably posting sub 1.50 ERA's in July and August.
Hawkins was also a pleasant surprise posting a 2.93 ERA and converting 13 Saves in Parnell absence. In fact, the 40 year old was the most consistent pitcher all year long and finished strong with 7 saves in September while giving up 0 runs and only 7 hits.
Unfortunately after those 3 guys the rest of the pen was dismal. Aardsma had one good month before sporting a 5.00+ ERAs the rest of the way. Lyon and his 4.98 ERA was released halfway through the season after showing that he couldn't a be a set up man to Parnell (6.12 ERA in non save situation appearances). Atchison's old UCL-less arm couldn't stay healthy and couldn't strike anyone out (5.2 K/9) while Burke and his 5.68 ERA racked up some serious frequent flyer miles between NY and Vegas.
2014
Closer: Bobby Parnell: 28 SV, 3.15 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
Set-Up: Victor Black: 3.50 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 4.6 BB/9
LOOGY: Scott Rice: 3.77 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 4.1 BB/9
ROOGY: Jeurys Familia: 3.66 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 4.2 BB/9
RH MR: Gonzalez German: 3.41 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
LH MR: Josh Edgin: 3.84 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 4.0 BB/9
Long Man: Carlos Torres: 3.92 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9
Much like the projections for the rotation, we need to take the bullpen projections with a grain of salt. That said, these numbers do not look that bad at all. One obvious thing that stands out is that this pen is going to be built on young power arms and will not repeat as the league's worst K machines. At the same time this group is also projecting to be one of the most inexperienced with only 9 years of MLB service time between them (Of which 5 years belongs to Parnell). The oldest guy in the bunch (Rice) will only be in his 2nd MLB season.
This pen has some potential and is either going to be very energetic and strong armed or is going to implode in our faces. It will all depend on how Terry Collins uses them. Our saving grace here is that Jeff Walters, Jack Leathersich, Chase Huchingson, Cory Mazzoni, and Jacob DeGrom are all ready to hold a spot in the pen if any of these guys falter.
Also from a statistical standpoint you can't be much worse then last year's group
Verdict: Massive volatility due to inexperience but at a bare minimum will be a push. Could possibly finish at moderate improvement if group can keep the BB rates in check.
You can't analyze the Mets pen without throwing in how they are managed.
It's like going to The Palm Restaurant, ordering the Filet, and asking for a bottle of ketchup.
First thing first... the starters have to average at least six innings per game. That happens, they may have enough here.
I still think there is one more outsider that will be signed for the pen. Until then, I'll reserve judgement.
Jared Diamond
Michael Baron