1/13/14

Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (Shortstops)




     So far we have improvement at the C position, same lackluster production at 1B, and same solid production at 2B. How about SS?

(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)

2013
Players: Omar Quintanilla, Ruben Tejada, Justin Turner, Wilfredo Tovar, Jordany Valdespin
Stats: .215 AVG/.285 OBP/.276 SLG, 3 HR, 40 RBI, 5 SB, 23 2B, 2 3B, 55 BB, 105 K
(29th in MLB OPS)

     No one was worried about the SS position heading into 2012. Our young 22 yr old SS had finished back to back season hitting over .280 with average defense and finished in the Top 7 amongst MLB SS with at least 250 PA both seasons in batting avg. We were wrong not to be worried as Tejada put up an atrocious .202 AVG. However one could say that it was attributed to bad luck as his BABIP was 74 basis points below his career average. He was sent down to AAA for a good chunk of the season and broke his leg a few games after he was recalled back to the MLB in September.

     Omar Quintanilla manned the position in his absence and was pretty bad himself hitting .222 while playing below average defense. Justin Turner also got playing time there and actually graded out as the team's best defensive SS with a +1.4 UZR in his small sample size. But even he hit only .220 when he started at SS, plus he is now gone.

2014
Starter: Ruben Tejada
Steamer Projections: .260 AVG/.317 OBP/.339 SLG, 3 HR, 50 RBI, 8 SB, 52 BB, 87 K

     Steamer projections agree that Tejada was a victim of bad luck. But they also believe that Tejada's two previous seasons had a little bit of good luck baked in as well. Eventually they settled on the slash line above which for the average MLB SS is not too shabby. Plus it's a massive improvement over Tejada's 2013 production and the batting average is even higher than what Stephen Drew produced in Fenway last season.

Verdict: Massive Improvement....because last year was just so bad.

Mack - I agree here. No one, including Tejada, could duplicate the miserable year he had in 2013. Will it be enough to be proud of?  I don't know, but it will be better.

6 comments:

Tommyb said...

Just as the writer sees massive improvement at SS with Tejada, the same applies to 1B. If it were Duda and Satin, they'd have to be much better than last year's deplorable 1B performance.

IBfromWhitePlains said...

I know I'll get the geeks and matrics guys all over my butt for this, but I think it boarders on the preposterous to project a baseball players numbers.

In any event, from Steamer's algorithm to God's Ear is all I can say.


Mack Ade said...

IB: - watch it :)

I got a rash of shit for Saying the same thing earlier this month

IBfromWhitePlains said...

Ha! Thanks for the heads up Mack! Don’t get me wrong. I think stats are fun and informative. It’s just projections I have trouble with. Last year I had a heated exchange with Howard Megdal on his site when he projected Mets run differentials based on this that and the other thing. I just don’t buy it. The baseball universe is in a constant state of flux. On the other hand, reading the back of Henry Aaron’s baseball card from 1966 a kid could get a pretty good idea of the type of year he’d havc in 1967.

Mack Ade said...

IB -

I haven't been the best believer of Juan Lagares, but I'll tell you this...

the actions he did last year in the outfield may have translated onto a stat sheet, but the effort, desire, and talent came from inside him without a nano-second to waste time.

There isn't a stat for a ball hit to center field that the fielder pulls up because it's obvious he wouldn't be successful in changing and throwing home... that happens every day and isn't held against ballplayers.

Lagares left nothing on the field last year.

IBfromWhitePlains said...

Mack - Yeah. Numbers can only tell part of the story. Then there
is the stuff that CAN be calculated that distorts the truth.

For instance: When someone tells me Duda was not bad last year based on OBP and other stuff I can only ask: Did you watch the guy play????