On Wednesday we noted that most of the Mets offense was under performing from career norms yet I oddly find friends who point to the playoff position the Mets are in right now to condemn this conclusion. Maybe I’m weird not wanting a bunch of sub .250 hitters forming the core (and worse than that with the exception of Jose Iglesias) forming the collection of understudies.
Today we will look at the starting pitching which is going to get both worse and better almost concurrently. On the worse side, we all are well aware of the UCL strain which pushed Christian Scott to the IL. In a way it was not surprising as he went from a dominant level pitcher to rather ordinary and homer prone. Hopefully the rest is all he needs, but these type of injuries are often precursors to TJS which would dramatically alter the 2025 pitching plans.
Right on his heels as the Mets head into Atlanta is the arrival of last year’s American baseball rookie sensation Kodai Senga. Most folks are more concerned that he had a bad AAA start than they are impressed with what he did in his previous rehab games. The important thing to monitor is not how many hits or walks he allowed but the fact that he was pain free and truly will be capable of playing here at the tail end of July and on through the end of September.
Luis Severino has been a mostly very pleasant surprise. After threatening to eclipse the 7.00 ERA plateau last year his free agent contract at what today is a modest level was puzzling given his poor performance and frequent injury history. This year he has been able to pitch every 5th day and the results have been encouraging. He’s made 19 starts, going 7-3 with a respectable 3.58 ERA. His strikeout numbers are down compared to previous years but the BAA is just .225 which is below his career norm. Until the recent hot streak the free-agent-to-be looked to be a prime trade away candidate. Now it appears they are believers and won’t strip the team bare.
Sean Manaea has his on-again/off-again types of performances but right now is turning out to be a good buy as a free agent signing. Also having made 19 starts, Manaea is 6-4 with a 3.73 ERA and better strikeout numbers than Severino hitting nearly 1 per inning pitched. His BAA is almost identical at .226. The club has him on a discounted contract this year due to $2.5 million coming over from San Francisco and the pitcher gets to decide for 2025 if he wants to stay or test the free agent market. His salary would actually be $1 million lower than his total take for 2024, so it’s possible he may feel that’s insufficient.
David Peterson is hovering between having turned a corner and being the luckiest pitcher alive. He has made 9 starts since essentially taking the place of Tylor Megill and he’s gone 5-0 with a dazzling 3.14 ERA. However, before you get champagne and fireworks ready, note that opposing batters are hitting .265 against him, he’s giving up far too many hits and his walk to strikeout ratio is painful. Take what you can get but remember he’s a guy with a career 4.34 ERA after crossing to 5.03 just last season. Granted, he was in pain and started this season on the IL recovering, so it may have adversely affected what he was able to deliver.
Jose Quintana started off slowly and badly this year but after a string of decent starts is nearly ready to dip below the 4.00 ERA threshold. Opponents are hitting .241 off of him but he balances it out with a better than 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. At age 35 he’s also a pending free agent.
Without Scott for a minimum of two weeks the Mets have to decide how they’re going to address the planned 6-man rotation for the balance of the year. The thought behind it was to give recovering Senga and rookie Scott some extra rest. If Scott was here then the 6th man would be Senga. Now, of course, things have changed.
The options immediately available would include Jose Butto who has been a godsend for the beleaguered bullpen. Removing him from there makes the already porous pen even worse, but he has shown the ability to get people out.
Option two is not too attractive. It would be a last gasp effort for Tylor Megill to return from Syracuse to play temporary starter. As a Syracuse Met he’s got a 2.38 ERA though walking too many people and giving up a lot of hits. The problem is that as a New York Met he pitched to a 5.77 ERA when they finally had seen enough. The question is whether he’s a dominant AAA player who can’t cut it in the majors or is he ready to employ whatever is working now and mostly in spring training when he returns?
The third alternative would be to acquire another starting pitcher. This approach might make the most sense with the removal of Butto from the bullpen painful and the return of Megill highly uncertain. Moreover, with Severino, Quintana and Manaea all possibly gone at year’s end, the club needs to think about fortifying its 2025 roster as well as making a run at October baseball.
9 comments:
I have great reservations about our starting pitchers. As you point out, none of them are without their flaws. They are all capable of pitching a good game, but also capable of pitching a stinker. The return of Senga will not be what people expect. It took him a while to get going last year and it will be the same this year. He will get very conservative pitch counts for the first month so he will not be going deep into ballgames even if he is throwing strikes.
It is great to see the team being so competitive and doing everything to win games, but this is not a team (and particularly not a staff) that can dominate in October. It will take more time and more building, not a trade deadline rental to put them over the top.
Gerrit Cole has struggled in his return, with a 5.40 ERA in 7 starts. Most of that, though, is against the Mets thundering hitters that Reese is disparaging. They are actually scoring as well on a per game basis as any team in baseball. And that is after scoring just 16 runs in their first 7 cold and Martinez-less games this year. 480 runs in their last 95 games.
And the bewildering Jeff McNeil is the 2019 McNeil suddenly. I think 50 pound anvils have been lifted from each shoulder.
I am hoping for a flawless Senga return. The starters have not been stellar, but they have been effective…fortunately, they do not have to face the Mets hitters. Scott was 0-3, so the rest of the staff have been middle of the pack in ERA.
I guess we will see who Stearns acquires, because the Mets not only look like Wild Card locks, but the Phillies have to be at least a bit concerned that the 2024 Mets may continue to play like the 2022 Braves, who were 23-27 before going 78-34. Add a reliever or two, and replace DJ Stewart. I think we will be fine.
Megill is a mystery, but was strong in his last start, and has 92 Ks in 66 Mets and minors innings this year. He is good pen and starter insurance.
I expect an addition here come August
Look at the numbers. The Mets are one of the top offensive teams in MLB. Starting pitching remains a concern when unable to complete six innings. Bullpen will be fortified with return of Garrett and Reid-Foley plus a trade acquisition.
Ray, well summarized, assuming Garrett and Foley return OK
Fixing the bullpen, which seems to be in progress, is a lot easier than fixing the rotation. And despite last night’s score, it’s hard to see this team winning a lot of 2-1 or 3-2 games in the playoffs. The Phillies rotation is a multi-headed monster for sure and a huge advantage in a 7 game series vs nearly anyone in baseball. All of that said, a 6-man rotation could help, and I do think that Stearns will find a way to bring in a starter rather than pull Butto from the pen or trusting Megill. In fact, with the team showing that they might just have enough here to maintain playoff level competitiveness even as they get younger over the next couple of years, I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull the trigger on a larger deal that brings in a younger starter with a couple of years of control remaining. The farm system isn’t great yet, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them send a package of say Baty-Acuna-Parada for a high quality starter that will be here awhile.
I think our farm system is pretty good.
He's already on the DL, while rehabbing. And I think the 7-day is only for minor leaguers
Foley is on the 40.
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