Tom Brennan: Mets’ Drafting Historically Has Not Been Adequate

HEY! HOW HAVE THE METS DRAFTED AS A FRANCHISE? WELL? BADLY?

Mack will take us through the 2024 MLB draft as it pertains to the Mets  starting July 14.   

DO NOT MISS IT.

He is the guru here on upcoming draftees and the draft.  

I do not venture there in this article, other than conceptually.  I leave the postulating about who we might draft to the prognosticators.

My thoughts in this article focus on drafting successfully, and seeing how poorly the Mets have done drafting over the decades, and compiled largely from prior articles of mine.

Drafting is an art form, they say.

I disagree. I think drafting in the early rounds, while having elements of hit-or-miss, comes down to this:

1) This Mets team needs to ramp up its efforts to pick much better in rounds 1 through 5 than it has historically; the Mets have drafted very poorly in those rounds, as is outlined further below. Poor drafting leads to a) lower quantity and quality of homegrown talent and b) greater need to hook the team’s "arm" up to the extremely costly Free Agent I.V. drip.

2) My advice essentially is to draft only power arms and power bats, with "power speed" factored in for hitters. Far too many non-fireballers and power-impaired, gravity-hindered hitters have been drafted in years past, resulting in below average promoted relievers and far too many wasted hitter draft picks. 

3) Draft no undersized players; the organization already has plenty of them.

Interestingly, I read the following, and it seems there is FINALLY a real commitment to the “peer arms/power bats/power tools philosophy I have been espousing for many years here:

“According to a report from The Athletic‘s Will Sammon, several industry members believe the Mets might shift their draft philosophy with Stearns and VP of amateur scouting Kris Gross at the helm. 

In addition, the belief is the Mets might do a mixture of what the Brewers and Astros have done in the past and sign “explosive athletes with big tools and pitchers with raw electric stuff.””

Continuing on with my article: 

Dom Smith was picked # 11 overall, a misJUDGEment when a power hitting monster whose last name started with J was still available (he went at # 32 that year). When you draft superior power hitting and pitching you will assuredly miss on many picks, but the ones you do hit on could be the team’s next APPLE or NVIDIA. (See my note on James Wood of the Nationals further down in this article.)

3) Avoid strategic overpays for drafted high school and college arms, especially HS arms. Situations like Matt Allan’s and JT Ginn’s can blow up entire years' drafts when such high gamble picks fail.

4) When the Mets’ draft brain trust is delighted that a draftable player slips down to where they can draft him, beware: Maybe the other teams see what our drafting team fails to see. Kevin Parada, for example, may fall into that category, although the jury remains out.  He slipped down, and is so far under-performing his 11th overall slot.

5) If a player has a seemingly very good bat, but is slow afoot and uncertain as to whether he can be nothing more than a 1B/DH, probably wise to look elsewhere.

I looked at Mets' 1st rounders 1965-2022.

 Not good, I concluded. At all.  

My brother Steve thinks this franchise's drafting over 60 years has been awful.  I largely agree.

I took into account, in my subjective first round Mets selection gradings, where the guy fell in the first round - so, if a Paul Wilson was first overall, and Anthony Kay was 31st overall, and they performed the same, Wilson would get a worse grade.

First, I ranked the roughly 55 Mets first rounders through 2020 by assigning them  an A thru F grade.  

Lots and lots of low performance grading scores:  

Drafting can be a crap shoot, but shoot, there's a lot of crap here.  

F's?  I count 22 of them.

D+, D, D-?  I count 9 of them.

So more than half the Mets' first round picks were Ds and Fs.

Nine more in the C category, so 40 were C or lower, and fewer than 20 were As or Bs.  

You really want your long-term scorecard to read the opposite.

And I did not want to tamper with this table I did after the season of 2022, so I did not move Kevin Parada down.  I had him at a "wishful thinking A+", but he has performed more like a C- so far, for a # 11 overall pick. 

Also, I am rolling with Jett as an A rated pick from 2022, but his 4 month injury makes such a rating guesswork.

SEASON	PLAYER	POS	PICK	GRADE
1982	Dwight Gooden	RHP	5	A++	Should have been a HOF
2022	Kevin Parada	C	11	A+	I’ll give him an A+ and let him earn it.
2022 2020	Jett Williams Pete Crow A.	IF CF	14 19	A A	I am hoping he is a Crow equivalent. Think he’ll be great; time will tell.
1967	Jon Matlack	LHP	4	A	Great pitcher for a lousy hitting team
1980	D. Strawberry	OF	1	A	Should have been an A++
1978	Hubie Brooks	SS	3	A	Fine, fine hitter
2002	Scott Kazmir	LHP	15	A-	108 game winner; none with the Mets.
1990	Jeromy Burnitz	OF	17	A-	315 HR, 981 RBIs for #17? Yes.
1973	Lee Mazzilli	OF	14	A-	Lee had a very good, long career
2011	B. Nimmo	RF	13	A-	A surprisingly good pick. He's now A+
1985	Gregg Jefferies	SS	20	A-	Considered an A, but defense not good.
1992	Preston Wilson	OF	9	A-	Very solid: 141 and 121 RBI seasons.
2017	David Peterson	LHP	20	B+	So far so good for an overall # 20
1977	Wally Backman	SS	16	B+	Great against righties, tough, no power
2019	Brett Baty	3B	12	B	His recent hitting in AA gives hope.
2010	Matt Harvey	RHP	7	B	Great pick – until hurt. 2.5 fine years.
2014	M. Conforto	OF	10	B-	Did enough to squeeze him into a B-.
1994	Terrence Long	1B	20	C	Decent for a 20th overall pick. No NYM.
1998	Jason Tyner	CF	21	C	Powerless .275 utility hitter with speed.
2001	Aaron Heilman	RHP	18	C	Modest career, not a bad pick for # 18
1968	Tim Foli	SS	1	C	Solid, long career; not #1 overall caliber
2013	Dominic Smith	1B	11	C	Milledge better. .246/.308/.424.
2008	Ike Davis	1B	18	C-	A few promising stretches, but a failure.
2005	Michael Pelfrey	RHP	9	C-	Workhorse; you want more out of # 9
1979	Tim Leary	RHP	2	C-	Injury prevented him from being more.
2008	Reese Havens	SS	22	C-	Could have been fine but many injuries.
2003	L. Milledge	OF	12	C-	Should've been better. .269/.338/.395.
1987	Chris Donnels	3B	24	D+	910 PAs, .233. Hit .195 with NYM.
2016	Justin Dunn	RHP	19	D+	Hurt.  So far, 5-4, 3.94 ERA. NO NYM.
1983	Eddie Williams	3B	4	D	.252 in 1,281 PAs, none with NYM.
1980	John Gibbons	C	24	D	50 career Abs, .220
2016	Anthony Kay	LHP	31	D	Fizzled; doing well in Japan in 2024.
2004	Philip Humber	RHP	3	D	Perfect game, bum arm, lousy.
2000	Billy Traber	LHP	16	D-	12-14, 5.65.  No NYM.
1983	Stan Jefferson	OF	20	D-	Career .216 in 920 PAs, 27 with NYM.
1994	Paul Wilson	RHP	1	D-	Injured pitcher.  40-48, 4.86 for a #1 overall.
1971	Rich Puig	2B	14	F	11 career PAs, and he walked 1X.
1989	Alan Zinter	C	24	F	.167 in 84 career PAs, none with NYM.
1975	Butch Benton	C	6	F	Butch who? .162 in 89 career Abs
1972	R. Bengston	C	13	F	Richard who?
1966	Steve Chilcott	C	1	F	Injured catcher - looked like Reggie.
1997	Geoff Goetz	LHP	6	F	Minors pitcher who did not pitch much.
1965	Les Rohr	LHP	2	F	Injured pitcher
1996	Robert Stratton	OF	13	F	Career minor leaguer.
1991	Alfred Shirley	OF	18	F	Never draft a guy named Alfred, Shirley
1986	Lee May	OF	21	F	Wrong Lee May.
1984	Shawn Abner	OF	1	F	Abner Doubleday did not like that pick.
1981	Terry Blocker	OF	4	F	Great football player name; weak at BB
1980	Billy Beane	OF	23	F	Good GM - those who can't play, GM
1992	Chris Roberts	OF	18	F	Never made it out of the minors.
1976	Tom Thurberg	OF	13	F	Never made it out of the minors.
1993	Kirk Presley	RHP	8	F	Terrible pick, uh huh, uh huh.
1988	Dave Proctor	RHP	21	F	Proctor was a Gamble – that failed.
1974	Cliff Speck	RHP	17	F	Cliff who? 2-1, 4.13, 28 innings with Atl.
1969	Randy Sterling	RHP	4	F	Randy who?
2012	Gavin Cecchini	SS	12	F	Bust.
1995	Ryan Jaroncyk	SS	18	F	Lousy minor leaguer. Lousy pick.
1970	G. Ambrow	SS	23	F	George who?
2018	Jarred Kelenic	OF	6	Inc.	Jury out. So far, not good. Got us Edwin.
2021	Kumar Rocker	RHP	10	Inc.	Re-drafted in 2022 by Texas.

 And now, by year:

SEASON	PLAYER	POS	PICK	GRADE
2022	Parada	C	11	A+	I’ll give him an A+ and let him earn it.
2022 2021	Jett Williams Kumar	IF RHP	14 10	A Inc.	I am hoping he is a Crow equivalent. Re-drafted in 2022 by Texas.
2020	Crow	CF	19	A	Think he’ll be great; time will tell.
2019	Brett Baty	3B	12	B	His recent hitting in AA gives hope.
2018	Jarred Kelenic	OF	6	Inc.	Jury out. So far, not good. Got us Edwin.
2017	David Peterson	LHP	20	B+	So far so good for an overall # 20
2016	Anthony Kay	LHP	31	D	Fizzled – in minors currently.
2016	Justin Dunn	RHP	19	D+	Hurt.  So far, 5-4, 3.94 ERA.
2014	M. Conforto	OF	10	B-	Did enough to squeeze him into a B-.
2013	Dominic Smith	1B	11	C-	Not a  Milledge. .246/.308/.424.
2012	Gavin Cecchini	SS	12	F	Bust.
2011	B, Nimmo	RF	13	A-	A surprisingly good pick
2010	Matt Harvey	RHP	7	B	Great pick – until hurt. 2.5 fine years.
2008	Reese Havens	SS	22	C-	Could have been fine; too many injuries.
2008	Ike Davis	1B	18	C-	A few promising stretches, but a failure.
2005	Michael Pelfrey	RHP	9	C-	Workhorse; you want more out of # 9
2004	Philip Humber	RHP	3	D	Perfect game, bum arm, lousy.
2003	L. Milledge	OF	12	D+	Should've been better. .269/.338/.395.
2002	Scott Kazmir	LHP	15	A-	108 game winner; none with the Mets.
2001	Aaron Heilman	RHP	18	C	Modest career, not a bad pick for # 18
2000	Billy Traber	LHP	16	D-	12-14, 5.65.  No NYM.
1998	Jason Tyner	CF	21	C	Powerless .275 utility hitter with speed.
1997	Geoff Goetz	LHP	6	F	Minors pitcher who did not pitch much.
1996	Robert Stratton	OF	13	F	Career minor leaguer.
1995	Ryan Jaroncyk	SS	18	F	Lousy minor leaguer. Lousy pick.
1994	Terrence Long	1B	20	C	Decent for a 20th overall pick. No NYM.
1994	Paul Wilson	RHP	1	D-	Injured.  40-48, 4.86 for a #1 overall.
1993	Kirk Presley	RHP	8	F	Terrible pick, uh huh, uh huh.
1992	Christ Roberts	OF	18	F	Never made it out of the minors.
1992	Preston Wilson	OF	9	A-	Very solid: 141 and 121 RBI seasons.
1991	Alfred Shirley	OF	18	F	Never draft a guy named Alfred, Shirley
1990	Jeromy Burnitz	OF	17	A-	315 HR, 981 RBIs for #17? Yes.
1989	Alan Zinter	C	24	F	.167 in 84 career PAs, none with NYM.
1988	Dave Proctor	RHP	21	F	Proctor was a Gamble – that failed.
1987	Chris Donnels	3B	24	D+	910 PAs, .233. Hit .195 with NYM.
1986	Lee May	OF	21	F	Wrong Lee May.
1985	Gregg Jefferies	SS	20	A-	Considered an A, but defense not good.
1984	Shawn Abner	OF	1	F	Abner Doubleday did not like that pick.
1983	Stan Jefferson	OF	20	D-	Career .216 in 920 PAs, 27 with NYM.
1983	Eddie Williams	3B	4	D	.252 in 1,281 PAs, none with NYM.
1982	Dwight Gooden	RHP	5	A++	Should have been a HOF
1981	Terry Blocker	OF	4	F	Great name for a FB player; lousy at BB
1980	John Gibbons	C	24	D	50 career Abs, .220
1980	Billy Beane	OF	23	F	Good GM
1980	D. Strawberry	OF	1	A	Should have been an A++
1979	Tim Leary	RHP	2	C-	Injury prevented him from being more.
1978	Hubie Brooks	SS	3	A	Fine, fine hitter
1977	Wally Backman	SS	16	B+	Great against righties, tough, no power
1976	Tom Thurberg	OF	13	F	Never made it out of the minors.
1975	Butch Benton	C	6	F	Butch who? .162 in 89 career Abs
1974	Cliff Speck	RHP	17	F	Cliff who? 2-1, 4.13, 28 innings with Atl.
1973	Lee Mazzilli	OF	14	A-	Lee had a very good, long career
1972	R. Bengston	C	13	F	Richard who?
1971	Rich Puig	2B	14	F	11 career PAs, and he walked 1X.
1970	G. Ambrow	SS	23	F	George who?
1969	Randy Sterling	RHP	4	F	Randy who?
1968	Tim Foli	SS	1	C	Solid, long career; not #1 overall caliber
1967	Jon Matlack	LHP	4	A	Great pitcher for a lousy hitting team
1966	Steve Chilcott	C	1	F	Injured catcher
1965	Les Rohr	LHP	2	F	Injured pitcher

So that's it on 1965 - 2020 first rounders - very poor. 

Moving on:

I also did a prior series of draft retrospective articles spanning 2012 through 2023.  Not involving the first rounders only, but all rounds.

So…how did the Mets do drafting in those years, anyway? 

REPORT CARD TIME.

Let’s take this in 2 tranches:

A) 2012 thru 2020 - plenty of time for the paint to have dried on those drafts. The players’ records are self-evident.

B) 2021-2023 - I'll get to those afterwards, below.

So, for 2012-2020?

Which picks turned out very good to well above average? 

- Pete Alonso 2nd round (# 64) 2018

- McNeil 12th round 2013.

- Pete Crow-Armstrong 1st round (# 20) 2020.  (Jury still out on Crow).

Which high picks were solid?

- Conforto (1st round, 2014) (but even though quality, the Mets passed on the far superior Trea Turner)

Which high picks may end up decent, but the jury is still out?

- Jarred Kelenic (1st round, 6th overall 2018)

- David Peterson (1st round, 20th overall 2017)

- Mark Vientos (2nd round out of HS, 2017) STARTING TO LOOK UP!

- Brett Baty 1st round, 2019)

Which lower picks have turned out fairly well? 

- Paul Sewald (10th round, 2012) - better than fairly well, as an ex-Met.

- Colin Holderman (9th round, 2016) - now a fine set up man for Pittsburgh

- Tylor Megill (8th round, 2018)

- Luis Guillorme (10th round, 2013)

Which higher picks were (are) only borderline major leaguers?

- Gavin Cecchini (1st round, 2012)

- Dominic Smith (1st round, 2013)

- Justin Dunn (1st round supplemental, 2016)

- Anthony Kay (1st round, 2016)

Which lower picks were (are) barely borderline major leaguers?

- Tomas Nido (8th round, 2012)

- Brad Wieck (7th round, 2013)

- Tom Szapucki (5th round, 2015)

- Pat Mazeika (8th round, 2015)

- Bryce Montes de Oca (8th round, 2018) (HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL)

MY TAKE? 

Drafted hitters 2012-2020? 

If Vientos, Crow, and Baty all blossom, the Mets have done OK over the 2012-20 draft period. If they do not, not so good. But, if you add in international draftees Gimenez, Rosario, and Alvarez, not bad at all.

Drafted pitching, 2012-2020? 

Simply terrible pitching draft outcomes long-term. Try making a single staff out of those draftees. Maybe for the LI Ducks, not for the major leagues.

Another key factor to underwhelming Mets drafts for those 9 seasons? 

Think about the only sure things from those drafts in rounds 2 thru 5? 

Just Alonso, and maybe Vientos. 

So, out of 36 total second through fifth round picks in those 9 years, just one hitting star emerged, and one possibly star-caliber player in Vientos?

2023’s draft is giving us Sproat (YAY)…and an infirmary full of injured guys. More on 2023 further below.

2012-2023? Stunning.  

But how badly did the Mets compare to the competition?  

Poorly when the Mets draft results are compared to Baseball America's typical draft success, as explained below.

BASEBALL AMERICA: 

Posted in 2019 by BA was a study of drafts spanning decades. The article had a bar chart of how many make the majors from each round.

Round 1: 73%

Round 2: 51%

Round 3: 40%

Round 4: 35%

Round 5: 31%

Round 6: 25%

Round 7: 22%

Round 8: 20%

Round 9: 20%

Round 10: 18%

Round 11+: 4%

So, for rounds 1 through 10, the average was 33.6% of those drafted should make the majors, or 3-4 per season per team. Throw in nearly 1 who makes it on average in rounds 11-20, and the average team should have 4 guys make the majors each draft, and probably 5 or 6 a year, when one goes back to seasons where there were 40 rounds, not 20.  Let's say 5 in total for those 40 player draft years.

(Baseball America did not differentiate between pitchers and hitters; my guess is the percentage of pitchers making the majors is significantly impacted by major pitcher arm and shoulder injuries.) 

Back to the Mets.  For the above 9 season period, 2012-2020, the Mets (based on my count) had 21 players make it, or 2.3 per season. 

That's just bad Mets results.  And relatively few high impact players.

Even worse is beyond round 1 (in round 1, regardless of their star power, they have 9 who have made the major leagues in 2012-20).  

Rounds 2 through 7 have been brutal.  Based on the BA stats above, on average, 2+ players in rounds 2 through 7 should end up making the majors from each draft. Instead of the average of 12 or 13 for those 6 seasons, the Mets have had just FOUR from rounds 2 through 7, and only one so far of more than limited consequence: 

In round 2, Pete Alonso and Mark Vientos. 

Round 3? No one.  

Round 4? No one.  

Round 5? Szapucki. 

Round 6? No one.  

Round 7? Brad Wieck.

Oddly, after those really abysmal 6 rounds (2 thru 7), round 8 had 4 players make the majors, 2 of whom (Megill and Nido) have played a lot. 

It is possible that a few draftees from later in the 2012-20 period, like frequently injured Matt Allan and (less likely) Ryley Gilliam, might still make it.  But even if those two do, this body of 9 years of draft work still represents very bad draft outcomes for the Metsies.

After the first round, if you asked the question, "why the heck did they pick THAT GUY?", you'd have been asking the right question.

Bad draft outcomes over large spans of time of course lead to a dearth of home-grown talent, and then free agent signings galore in order for a team trying to be competitive to fill gaps, which then thrusts such a team trying to compete into the tangled web of luxury cap problems.

I say that drafting power arms, power bats, power speed is the long-term formula to Mets' drafting success.  

The draft is a crap shoot, they say....

So let's "crap less" so we draft better than the average team, instead of far worse, how about that?

Thoughts in my next article are on the more recent 2021 through 2023 drafts, the seasons where players are still in their minor league developmental stage and a bit too early to truly judge.

"When you, Mr./Mrs. Mets Fan, next feel a draft, may the draft for you be a sweet tailwind and not a biting, bitter headwind."

Before I forget...Here's a "hindsight special" for you.  

The Mets in 2021 drafted Calvin Ziegler 46th overall. 

They did not pick uber-athlete James Wood, who was picked # 62.  

Even if Ziegler hadn't gotten injured, I am very puzzled why a super-speedy 6'7" kid with superior power was not selected by the Mets.  

Hopefully it had nothing to do with demographics.  

This was a VERY BAD MISS.  

Wood right now looks like he may have superstar potential, after tearing up both spring training and AAA. 

Lastly, unlike when I wrote the above article that I brought forward here to this column, the 2021-23 drafts' 2nd rounds and beyond have far more drafted player game performance to look at, to see if the poor drafting trend of 2020 and prior is changing for the better.  

I'd say that the answer is YES.it seems to be improving.

2021 - a potentially decent draft, despite the Kumar debacle.

Kumar Rocker was to receive well over $1 million in over-slot $$, affecting the quality of later picks, and then the Mets got skittish over his health exam and turned the pick back.  But the under-slotting to sign guys after Kumar had to have had some effect. (Since Kumar subsequently needed TJS, probably smart to pass him over. His turn down got the Mets Kevin Parada in the 2022 first round instead).

Calvin Ziegler - 2nd round - I addressed him above - 2 very bad health years in 2023 and 2024, and he is likely to lose half of 2025 to after his 2024 TJS.  

A decent pick - young, power arm - but TJS is the true pandemic.

Christian Scott in Round 5 looks like a major steal.

Dom Hamel (round 3) has panned out perhaps about as expected, Mike Vasil (round 3) ditto, JT Schwartz - 4th round ditto, except he has not demonstrated power while playing a power position.  A few others like Wyatt Young and Trey McLoughlin that possibly could help someday in Queens, the latter (as a pitcher) being the more likely of the two to reach the bigs since pitchers in quantity are constantly needed in the majors.

Nate Lavender: a great pick in round 14. A fine lefty reliever, then needed TJS of course in the first half of 2024.  Will we see him in late 2025?

2022 looks outstanding after round 1, in which Jett and Parada were taken:

Brandon Sproat throws 100 MPH and was a solid 3rd round pick in 2022, but he elected to return to college and the Mets drafted him again (successfully) in 2023.

2022 # 75 overall, Nick Morabito, has superior speed and a very good bat and knack for getting on base, and moderate power likely will develop.  Very good pick, it appears. 

Blade Tidwell at 2022 - round 2 (52) seems to be a solid pick so far, with real MLB starter potential  - throws HARD.

Tyler Stuart at 2022 - round 6 looks like a solid 6th round pick with MLB hurler potential, either as a starter or a reliever.

Jonah Tong at 2022 - round 7 still reminds me of a younger version Orel Hershiser - seemingly an excellent 7th round pick.

Rhylan Thomas at 2022 - round 10 was an excellent choice.  Power and speed are not his game, but pure hitting, low Ks, and solid OF defense make that a noteworthy pick.  Seems like he has real potential to be a 4th or 5th outfielder.

Paul Gervase at 2022 - round 11 was excellent, too, and his 2.50 ERA in 2023 and 2024, and 129 Ks in 76 innings?  You'll take that in Round 11 any time.

2023's Draft? 

Sproat may be the G.O.A.T.

Colin Houck was a # 32 overall pick who started poorly this year, but has improved a lot. Very high Ks. Time will tell for this SS.  Toolsy and young.

Brandon Sproat throws 100 MPH and was a superb 2nd round pick in 2023 - a true, franchise-enhancing  power arm.  Possible future ace.

Nolan McLean is a fine righty fireballer chosen in the 3rd round who could help the Mets on the mound in 2025/26 - I like the "power arm" pick, even if he can't reduce his strikeouts as a hitter sufficiently to also become the hitting version of Dave Kingman, too, except Kingman was a contact specialist compared to McLean.

Boston Baro, AJ Ewing, Kade Morris and a few others can be better evaluated in a year.  Playing decently so far.

That is it, dear readers, what are your thoughts?

You can submit them in draft form if you’d like.