"HEY!! THE REMAINING METS SCHEDULE SEEMS TO BE NOT SO DAUNTING"
The Mets entered Thursday's action with 61 games left, a 53-48 record, and winners if 29 of their last 42 games. Remarkable 42 game stretch when one considers some of the bullpen struggles over those 42 games.
And then, in game # 102, they won a thriller against perhaps 2024's toughest MLB starter this side of Paul Skenes in Chris Sale, 3-2. Now they who were 24-35 are now 54-48. Lindor stays blistering with a 2 run blast, and the suddenly scalding Jeff McNeil, a bit unlucky of late, gets a break on a game winning hit misplay in the 10th, as the RF overran his shot to deep right.
They also seemed to get a break in the 9th on a bang-bang out call on an attempted steal of third, and from a botched Atlanta suicide squeeze in the 10th. Serendipity.
Jose Butto was magnificent in relief as were Diaz and Maton, the eventual winner. Severino was fine for 6 innings, too, against Braves. (I underestimated Butto, who along with Dedniel Nunez have been terrific. Butto has a BAA of .148 in 52 innings). Dedniel though has bragging rights so far with his 2.43 ERA, ahead of Butto’s 2.44.
They trail the Phillies by "just" 10 games and the Braves by a mere half a game.
And Senga’s 2024 debut is tonight. Casper the Friendly Ghost is psyched.
LET’S LOOK AHEAD…
The schedule ahead looks fairly benign, too, even though most teams are tough opponents who can beat the Mets on any given night.
I subjectively grouped the schedule into 4 categories:
1) Tough teams, 2) Not Easy teams, 3) Not So Hard teams, and 4) Weak teams
1) Tough Teams - 13 games
- Phillies 7
- Orioles 3
- Brewers 3 (final series of year, and the Brew Crew may have already clinched)
2) Not Easy Teams (23 games)
- Braves 6 (injuries to Acuna, Albies, others makes them 24-29 since Acuna hurt)
- Padres 4
- Red Sox 3 (left for dead, but the Yanks have allowed Boston back in)
- Minny 3
- D Backs 3
- Reds 3
- Cards 1
3) Not So Hard Teams - 6 games
- Mariners 3 (just acquired Randy Arozarena from the Rays)
- Blue Jays 3
4) Weak Teams - 18 games
- White Sox 3 (50 games under, and may threaten the Mets' 40-120 record)
- Marlins 3 (yes, they are pests but may sell off at deadline, and are 28 under)
- Rockies 3 (well, they did score 20 in Colorado on Wednesday)
- A's 3 (improving, but 22 games under .500)
- Angels 3 (Trout should still be out, and they are 12 under .500. Pillar hitting well)
- Nats 3 (8 under .500)
Conclusion:
Lousy teams can get hotter, and good teams can get colder. You have to win, period.
Assuming the Mets bolster their pen and also get Senga and Marte back soon, and effectively, I however do not see why they couldn't go 38-22 (or better) in these last 60 games. That would make them 92-72. 40-20 seems feasible, and would make them 94-68, and if they can win 4 or 5 of the 7 against the Phillies, perhaps that 10 game deficit to the Phillies can be eliminated. The Mets, however, dug themselves a deep trench when they lost 27 of 39 and free-fell from 12-8 to 24-35.
So the division title remains a long shot, but the Wild Card seems a lock. They were several games out of the Wild Card, and behind several teams, but after Wednesday are a half game ahead in the Wild Card race and the hottest team in baseball over their last 43 games.
Thoughts?
STRANGE SCHEDULE FOR FCL METS - AND MORE MINORS OBSERVATIONS
So, the Mets just drafted 20 players, are signing most of them and some others, too, adding roughly 20 new players ready to play very shortly - and the only rookie league team, the FCL Mets, has their season schedule wrapping up this week. (Why they don't have a 90 game schedule that stretches to September 1 is beyond me).
I guess some of the new draftees will be assigned to St Lucie, bumping out lesser performers, and all of the FCL players they plan to keep and the draftees not assigned to St Lucie will….scrimmage unofficially?
Anyone have a better read on this than me? Maybe they don’t want the new guys not assigned to St Lucie to have the pressure of seeing themselves go 2 for 20 with 12 Ks as they adjust?
Strange also is the fact that he Mets had a ton of rainouts they won’t make up. They ended up 23-28 (51 games), while 4 teams played 59 official games.
One individual who impressed after his mid season promotion from the DSL to the FCL was big bonus catcher Daiverson Gutierrez - only 15 FCL games, but he had a .463 OBP and just 4 Ks in 50 plate appearances. The excellent K ratio is eye-popping and has to bode well for the future.
I wonder if he will be sent back to the DSL or to St Lucie for more playing time. That strikeout rate would seem to support a St Lucie assignment.
Also in the FCL, Simon Juan hit 7 HRs, and Jeremy Rodriguez hit .282, but with lots of errors, excusable as he just recently turned 18.
Meanwhile, the DSL teams play on for I believe another 3 weeks. The Mets’ 2 DSL teams entered Thursday action a combined 30-39 with a -54 in net runs scored.
Last night, Joey Lucchesi (5-5, 4.66) got smacked around in a 6-4 Syracuse loss, and one has to wonder if the end (or Korea) is near. Joander Suarez (5-5, 4.58) tossed several scoreless innings. And Jonah Tong (4-3, 2.55) has hit a speed bump in his last 2 starts for Brooklyn, as they appear to be limiting his pitch counts quite a bit, wisely. The 4 Mets full season teams compiled just 21 hits, while the winning NY Mets had just 3 hits in 10 innings but managed to win the game that really counts when all is said and done.
Speaking of speed bumps, Colin Houck in his last 3 games is 1 for 12 with 11 Ks for St Lucie. Give the lad a few days off?
18 comments:
Big pet peeve of mine about the shorter FCL season. Even shorter due to all the Florida rainouts.
Let's see what happens over the next 48 hours. Maybe some of these kids get to change lockers and playout the St. Lucie season
Mack, I sure hope so. Lucie has played poorly overall, and why not introduce several newly signed players there?
I guess someone forgot to tell the Yankees and Braves about our "crappy" pen. With Butto and Nunez, and now Maton, setting up for Duaz, and Otto and Diekman in less-pressured and less overused situations, and Houser as long man, it doesn't look so crappy now.
Garrett and Reid-Foley are close to return, and we may even add Sproat to the mix.
Sure, if we can get someone like Scott, it would make things better. But trading talented prospects to get someone else's "pretty good" RPs seems unnecessary and even wasteful.
Has MLB given any explanation for shutting down the FCL at a time when teams are drafting/signing kids with no place to play them?
They can't even play in the college summer leagues once theybturn pro.
Makes zero sense.
Bill my best guess is the # of non-promoted guys in the FCL, plus the draftees who are not assigned directly to St Lucie, combined, are enough to play baseball game scrimmages. Maybe better teaching environment for youngsters, but I am grasping at straws.
When you look at the combined poor records of St Lucie and the FCL Mets, it is clear to me that many won't be back in 2025. 50%? More? So they will retain enough to field 2025 FCL and St Lucie teams for 2025.
Bill, this explains it well - they start a month earlier in consideration of bad late summer Arizona and Florida weather, and apparently lowered the limit of minors players to 165 from 180 - rather than bringing in 15 more hungry wannabe pitchers to compensate for teams also wanting to protect their pitching draftees' arms for 2024:
https://northsidebaseball.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/monthly_2024_02/C10B527D-272F-432D-A6BA-576BACBCC232.jpeg.7bbfa53f2e510126385042cd691215e0.jpeg
Tom and Mack,
In the past, after the rookie league games ended, the teams sent players to their Instructional teams in September. Often newly signed players would then be assigned to that team for additional instruction and future development. Are the Mets going to continue with this?
Tom: "the Wild Card seems a lock"? not to be a 'Debby Downer,' but, as most of us have, I've been a fan of the Mets since the original disbursal draft, and, as you said, hot teams turn cold and cold teams turn hot. the Mets are one of only 3 wild card teams, but there are 3 more within 1.5 games. the Metsies could really turn hot (like 1969!) and pass the Phillies... but they're much closer to falling out of the wild card. here's hoping it's 1969 again, not 2023.
Jon, I hear you, but unless injuries derail the Mets, it bears repeating that after the first 7 games of the season, the Mets are the highest scoring team on a per game basis in baseball. A bunch of guys are hot, and we no longer have Nido and Narvaez - we have Alvarez and Torrens. We no longer have Baty scuffling at 3B - we have Vientos. Iglesias was hot before he got called up, JDM tinkered with him, and now he is better. A .380 hitter? No. But one who will hit well. And the counterfeit McNeil has exited and the real McNeil is back.
The Mets didn't hit well last night because it was Super Sale. They've kicked the tar out of Cole twice. And Dedniel and Butto are throwing real quality, so I do not expect them to suddenly shrivel up. And Senga, who sat out the Mets' recent 30-13 surge, is back. And Marte in a few weeks.
I think this team can go toe-to-toe with almost any squad, and thus think that Wild Card contenders won't be able to keep pace.
I'd say worst case over the next 60 is 34-26. That's 88-74. That should get the Mets there. But I think they will win 92, perhaps 94, if they stay healthy.
I always get nervous when fans say the schedule gets easier, etc. Those weak teams sometimes bring out the worst for our Mets. Seem to always play down to their competition. Let's hope they rectify that
Dam Nunez on IL
That sorta kinda explains it, but I still don't understand why they want to cut back, unless it's to save money.
Any reason given?
We have found out that we can beat any team and lose to any team.
Adrian Houser and Shintaro Fujinami have been designated for assignment with Eric Orze back up with the Mets. Is there a market for Houser in a trade?
Odd turn of events. Senga scheduled for tomorrow, implying we need long relief. Then Houser DFA'ed? Nunez to the IL, Fujinami showing much better control, but instead of calling him up, he is DFA'ed. Megill to fill Scott's slots which means he will not provide long relief but then they call up Orze who is a one inning guy. There must be other moves coming soon that will make all of this activity make sense.
Of corse, Dedniel is hurt.
What they should with the FCL is wrap up play this week and then start a new 6 week league for the draftees and selected FCL players. Obviously they cannot fill a roster with the draftees, but the focus should be on getting the new guys some innings or at-bats. Maybe make the remainder an FCL all-star squad or something that the August league players earn the right to play in.
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