MACK - My Sunday Observations - Douglas Orellana, Noah Hall, Calvin Ziegler, David Peterson, Zach Thornton, Ethan Lanthier, Jonathan Santucci, More Players In The Draft

Our first view of Ryan Helsley was quite impressive. What followed wasn’t. Helsley made pitching look easy in the inning he pitched. Three strikeouts in three outs. All the hype was he was going to be the perfect set-up man for Mets closer, Edwin Diaz. What followed was one strike of the bat and the winning run was history. I know this is premature, but Helsley is one of the top CLOSERS in the game. Is Diaz feeling the pressure here? Should the Mets begin to consider a flip-flop here? Do I have nothing else to write about this morning? I’ll move on…

Well, well,  well.  I really don’t care how many hits a team gets, walks, steals, none of that. To me, it's all runs and ribbys.  This team can't be on that float going down 5th Avenue in October without the top four bats in this lineup producing. Well, yesterday, 11 of the 12 runs batted in for their game came from Nimmo, Lindor, Soto, and Alonso. THAT'S what I'm talking about.

David Adler                        @_dadle

I really like that the Mets traded for:

+63° arm angle Ryan Helsley

-60° arm angle Tyler Rogers

4th-highest arm angle among RHP and lowest arm angle among RHP

The Top 30 Mets Pitching Prospects

isaacgrofman@substack.com

16. Douglas Orellana

FF: 55/55 | SL: 60/60 | CB: 55/55 | Control: 45/50 | Arsenal: 45 | Uniqueness: 70 | FV:45

With a funky look and short arm action, Orellana features a true north-south arsenal. His headliner is a four-seam fastball that touches 99 mph with extreme cut, an unusual and uncomfortable look for hitters. He pairs it with both a slider and curveball that drop straight down with death-ball movement, giving him two distinct vertical breakers.

The slider, sitting in the high 80s, flashes near double-plus potential. Health has been a concern, particularly as a starter, but he’s now thriving in a closer role at Double-A Binghamton, where the 23-year-old has handled the jump in competition well. Don’t be surprised if he follows a Dedniel Núñez-type breakout path, either later this year or in 2026.

 

The Top 30 Mets Pitching Prospects

isaacgrofman@substack.com

17. Noah Hall

FF: 45/50 | CH: 55/55 | FC: 50/50 | SL: 50/50 | CB: 50/50 | Control: 50/50 | Arsenal: 55/55 | Uniqueness: 55 | FV: 40

Hall is a lower slot righty that has done well in Brooklyn this year using his Changeup heavily. It is a good pitch off his fastball which doesn’t have a very good shape even though it tops out around 96. He is fun to watch and gets creative on the mound, messing with batters timing by changing his delivery. Potential future back of the rotation piece.

 

The Top 30 Mets Pitching Prospects

isaacgrofman@substack.com

18. Calvin Ziegler

FF: 70/70 | SL:55/60 | CB: 55/55 | Control: 45/50 | Arsenal: 50/55 | Uniqueness: 60 | FV:45

Ziegler is a stuff monster and flashes a unique 4-seam that gets 18 vert from a 5.6 slot and reaches the high 90’s, it is a pitch that will be be a real weapon for him. He also has a “death ball” curveball with outlier depth. We have not seen a large sample from him since 2022 due to injury so it is hard to project him as an MLB piece. But he is still just 22 and he has three plus pitches with unique shapes from a unique slot, which gives him the floor of a MLB reliever if he can stay healthy.

Mets mailbag

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6514282/2025/07/24/mets-trade-deadline-clay-holmes-mark-vientos-lineup/

Is there an idea on how David Stearns views contract extensions before players reach free agency? Have there been any rumblings of an extension between David Peterson, who has one more year of control? — David E.

Tim: Stearns viewed extensions as vitally important in Milwaukee and as less so in Queens. The Mets have the luxury of going year to year with players in arbitration and still being competitive in free agency to re-sign them, as they did with Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso. (In Nimmo’s case, an extension would have saved them a lot of money; that’s less clear in Alonso’s case.)

And so there’s less urgency to lock in younger players when you’re less sure of their overall trajectory. Just think back to last offseason. Who would have been the two players most fans would want extended the most? Francisco Alvarez and Vientos. Neither would look particularly good right now.

In general, extension negotiations happen more in the offseason and spring training than in the middle of the regular season. So it’s not a surprise I haven’t heard any rumblings of an extension with Peterson. That’s another case in which the Mets can probably afford to play out the rest of this season and even into 2026 to get a better gauge of what Peterson could make as a free agent. In my opinion, the gap between Peterson’s on-field results and many of his peripheral stats makes his open-market value harder to predict, at least for now.

Pitching Prospects

isaacgrofman@substack.com

10. Zach Thornton

FF: 50/55 | SL: 50/55 | CB: 50/55 | CH: 45/55 | Control: 60/60 | Arsenal: 50/60 | Uniqueness: 50 | FV: 45

There’s growing evidence that Thornton is a much different pitcher this year compared to the 2024 version. Reports indicate he's throwing at least a tick harder, has added a “kick” changeup, and is working on creating more separation between his slider and curveball. That could help explain his breakout season so far. Across Low-A Brooklyn and Double-A Binghamton, he’s posted a 28% strikeout rate, a 4% walk rate, a 1.98 ERA, and a 2.60 FIP. His 2024 pitch shapes weren’t ideal or fully refined, but even then he flashed MLB starter traits, with a cut-ride fastball, two quality breaking balls, and plus control. With the reported improvements, his ceiling may be even higher.

 

The Top 30 Mets Pitching Prospects

isaacgrofman@substack.com

11. Ethan Lanthier

SW: 60/60 | FF: 55/55 | SL: 50/55 | CH: 55/60 | Control: 45/50 | Arsenal: 55/55 | Uniqueness: 50 | FV: 50

Lanthier features a fairly typical arsenal, but there’s real intrigue in his two breaking balls, especially the sweeper, which pairs good depth and sweep with high spin from his high release point. While his four-seam sits in the mid-90s, it lacks the vertical carry you'd expect from his slot, hovering around 18 inches of IVB. His changeup, potentially thrown with a “kick” grip, shows promising depth as well. 

At 21 years old, with a 6’5”, 230-pound frame and four pitches that could all grade out as at least average or better, he’s showing the foundation of a potential top-of-the-rotation starter. There’s still significant development ahead, but the ingredients are here for a quality MLB arm.

 

The Top 30 Mets Pitching Prospects

isaacgrofman@substack.com

12. Jonathan Santucci

FF: 50/55 SL: 55/55 CH: 55/55 | Control: 40/45 | Arsenal: 40/45 | Uniqueness: 45 | FV: 45

As a lefty who touches 97 mph with a strong slider, Santucci was an intriguing draft prospect. However, beyond these two pitches, his arsenal is limited. His fastball shape, around 18 inches IVB from a higher release in college, is likely to settle into a less impressive 15–16 inches in pro ball.

Aside from his above-average velocity, the pitch offers little special value and may struggle to be heavily relied upon. His slider is a solid offering, sitting around 83 mph with slightly more sweep than a typical gyro slider, posting an impressive 53% whiff rate in college last year. He’s also flashed a decent changeup with some depth. Still, with below-average control and a notably shallow pitch mix, Santucci’s profile suggests more of a lefty reliever ceiling at the MLB level.

 

Why We Need More Players In Person At The Draft

carloscollazo@substack.com

We don’t.

This headline was entirely click bait. Sorry about that.

Just a few days after the conclusion of this year’s draft, the lack of players in attendance became a storyline. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez wrote this piece explaining why there were no players in Atlanta for the 2025 draft. I also started getting asked about it after the piece came out—not before—in a few post-draft interviews.

This feels like one of the biggest non-stories imaginable.

Did anyone watching the draft even notice there weren’t players in attendance this year? Is anyone’s biggest critique with the draft as a TV product the lack of more in-person player interviews? I sincerely doubt it.

My running theory is that no one other than the people in charge of the broadcasts really cares too much about this.

We’re entirely capable of “marketing” the players who are drafted without those players showing up in person to take an awkward picture with the commissioner, throw on a jersey and then have an even more awkward in-person interview about what it was like to just be drafted.

As Gonzalez points out in his piece, there are reasons why players and their agents are incentivized to not show up to the MLB draft:

Representatives from each of the three agencies denied possessing a hard-and-fast rule preventing players from attending the draft, stating that those decisions ultimately rest with their clients. But those agencies, as well as other agents throughout the industry, did identify two key reasons why some of their clients ultimately don't attend.

 

One is that amateurs, particularly those who just graduated high school, don't want to subject themselves to the public shame of potentially seeing their names fall in the draft, preferring instead to host draft parties surrounded by friends and family members from home. Another, more prominent reason is that the MLB draft's economic landscape disincentivizes it.

Each selection within the first 10 rounds comes with an assigned value, but teams are free to divide their total draft bonus pools however they would like. Signing bonuses, then, are subject to negotiations. And those talks often take place minutes before players are selected, potentially influencing whether teams take them at certain spots. After that, deals still need to be finalized. Scott Boras, baseball's most influential agent, believes attending a draft can hinder leverage.

Baseball’s draft is different from the drafts of the NBA and the NFL. We don’t always need to try and copy those leagues. We can embrace what’s unique and different about our draft and still provide compelling reasons to watch the broadcast even if players don’t show up.

I thought one of the more touching moments of the draft was watching Tyler Bremner celebrate with his entire family after the Angels made him the second overall pick. Are we really going to make the case that that’s worse TV than him sitting by himself (or with a handful of family members) and then walking up on a stage at the actual draft? I’m not.

Players can still participate in the draft—and regularly do—without actually being there in person.

It’s the best of both worlds: The players can be with their families and friends in a controlled environment during a stressful time. There’s no worry about losing any sort of leverage in signing a deal. We can do remote interviews with players after they are selected just fine. And the draft itself actually moves at a quicker pace because we’re not slowing things down when an in-person player is selected.

If players really want to show up to the draft and take part in the live experience—that’s perfectly fine. I’m all for it. I just think this is a non-issue.