MACK - MY Friday Observations - Wednesday's Trades

 

Morning Thoughts

What I think of Wednesday’s trades.

First all, no one can predict the future. If they could both Mike Piazza and Aaron Judge would have gone 1.1 in their draft.

And no one can predict where players who are labeled “rentals” will wind up in their next season. Mets fans balked when the team traded their top two shortstop prospects for a rental at that position. Turns out the Mets resigned him in the off-season. That was Francisco Lindor. How did that work out?

This analysis is only based on talent vs. talent, for this season only.

A side bar. I started as a Mets writer when I was a syndicated sportswriter paid to cover the Savannah Sand Gnats. I quickly learned that I didn’t get my best info from showing up fifteen minutes before the game started and watching it from the press box. Instead, I would show up 3-4 hours before the game to hang out with the players, their families, and, eventually, the scouts who I sat with behind the plate.

Early on, I made the mistake of getting too close to some players and their families. I now know that altered my opinions of these players. I actually cared about them.

What I didn’t realize that this was a job only situation and I needed to stop letting my emotions affect my writing. Anyway…

Trade 1:

Mets trade OF Drew Gilbert, RP Jose Butto, and SP Blade Tidwell to San Francisco. Mets receive back RP Tylor Rogers.

Again, you must first ask yourself what you want from this team THIS year. I don’t know about you, but I have written about a team that has not brought home the trophy since 1986. That’s 39 years. 39 years. I’m getting pretty tired of analyzing trades for a player’s future value.

-Very few members of the 2025 are playing consistent, positive baseball. There’s Edwin Diaz, David Peterson, and Reed Garrett on the mound and… and… hell, the best BA on this team is Starlin Marte.

-It’s a team of slumps, injuries, disappointing youngsters, and current stars producing like rookie level minor leaguers.

-Every game seems like this team is sliding down a razor blade.

-The addition of Rogers to a pen that includes Diaz, Garrett, Gregory Soto, and the back from the IL, Brooks Raley totally remakes this pen into one of the best in the National League.

-Nobody traded was a top prospect. Gilbert should have been by now, but 12-HR and .246-BA is nothing to write home about.

Thomas Nestico                               @TJStats

Drew Gilbert (acquired by SFG) is a left handed hitting OF that has been seemingly average at the dish in AAA this season

He won’t blow anyone away with exit velocities, but he remains productive thanks to his pull tendencies and stinginess at the plate

-Butto showed promise earlier this year, but is coming off a disappointing 5-ER in 1.2-IP in his last outing

-And an old favorite of mine, Tidwell, has a 9.00-ERA for the Mets and 4.10 for Syracuse. Not McLean or Tong numbers.

Thomas Nestico                               @TJStats

Blade Tidwell (acquired by SFG) is a volatile pitching prospect that has flashed impressive strikeout stuff but has struggled to find the command to be consistent

His deep arsenal buoys his floor and gives the Giants plenty of tools to help Tidwell reach his ceiling

-None of the top prospects, at the same positions, were traded here.

-As of Rogers, this is one of the most talented, most successful, and most consistent pitchers you are going to see for this team. You’ll love his funky delivery and release. Just don’t look for high K/9 numbers here. He generates more groundballs than most pitchers in the game.

Thomas Nestico                               @TJStats

Tyler Rogers (acquired by NYM) is a submarining reliever that has been utterly dominant throughout his career

Perhaps the most unique pitcher in baseball, Rogers won’t beat you with speed, but he will with his one-of-a-kind delivery. This is a huge boost to the Mets bullpen!

Pitch Profiler          @pitchprofiler

The Mets get another demon, and this one throws FUNKY

 Daniel Wexler         @WexlerRules

 

-The Gilbert and Tidwell departure creates an opening in Syracuse for both Carsen Benge and Jonah Tong. We’ll see.

So…

If you want to win the World Series this year, this is a great deal.

If the Mets resign the 28-yr old for around 4-5 years, it is an absolutely great deal. 

Remember the flack they got when they trade their two top shortstop prospects for a rental of Francisco Lindor.

Me?

Rating:  A+

Trade #2

Mets trade RHP Nate Dohm, RHP Frank Elissalt, and 3B Jesus Baez to St. Louis for RHRP Ryan Helsley.

Dohm and Elissalt are two two mid-level starter prospects that simply have no path to a future Mets rotation.

Baez, in my opinion, is a real deal prospect with a bright future in this game. The concern of his loss will fade if one of the current three Mets third baseman work out (Baty, Vientos, Mauricio). If not, you will hear ad nauseam about this guy 

(I show Brooklyn having only two productive starters now… Brandon Girton and Noah Hall. Look for promotions from St. Lucie post haste with guys like Will Watson and Ethan Lanthier. As for Baez’s replacement, probably Kevin Villaviceio.)

Helsley is one of the top closers in the game and is at the prime of his career. In addition, perfect insurance is if signs up with the Mets in the future and Diaz doesn’t. Lastly, simply put, the Mets now have the best bullpen in the game.

Pitch Profiler                                     @pitchprofiler

DAVID STEARNS OWNS THIS TRADE DEADLINE

Hours after acquiring late-inning weapon Tyler Rogers, the Mets acquire the flamethrowing Ryan Helsley!

How’s that for progress?

Again, I analyze this on this season, not the future. With that…

Rating -  A++

In closing, David Stearns decided this week to improve this team for a stronger chance to win this year’s World Series. The majority of players traded away were pitchers, the area where there is the most prospect depth. The future of starters seems cemented with the likes of Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Christian Scott, Brandon Sproat, and Jack Wenninger. None of them were traded away. In fact, none of the top five Mets prospects were traded away.

I just see no downside here.