ANGRY MIKE: 2025 PROSPECT REPORT: ELIAN PENA

ANGRY MIKE 

BACKGROUND: 

Elian Pena was the most highly touted prospect the Mets have ever signed from an International free agent standpoint and even from a MLB Draft standpoint. His $5 Million signing bonus was almost twice as much as the previous club record ($2.85 Million - Yovanny Rodriguez) and close to matching Kevin Parada’s record signing bonus from the 2022 Draft. Needless to say expectations were massive for the young phenom, who many scouts deemed as one of the most polished and talented prospects they’ve ever seen. 

Scouts compared him to Juan Soto because of his advanced pitch recognition, plus bat to bat skills, and burgeoning power potential. Scouts raved about his work ethic and high baseball I.Q., which is about as rare for a prospect his age, as was the 65 scouting grade he received for his “Hit Tool”. Only 1 other teenager received a 65 scouting grade for his “Hit Tool” (TerMarr Johnson - 70 Grade - 2022 MLB Draft) out of the thousands of prospects entering the professional ranks as free agents or via the MLB Draft. 

Vlad Guerrero Jr, Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Wander Franco, and Julio Rodriguez rank among the teenaged greatest prospects ever to be procured from the South American talent pool, and not a single one received a unanimous 65 scouting grade for their “Hit Tool”, Elian Pena was the first prospect ever to receive that distinction. 

2025 SEASON:

That’s why it made perfect sense to see Pena struggle mightily in his first 40-50 AB, because he’s part of the Mets franchise now, it’s the only way his career could’ve started. “X” was on fire and podcasters already started pushing the narrative that Pena, despite all the “can’t miss” hype was an epic bust of biblical proportions.

Then, something funny happened right before our eyes, and the baseball world learned about who exactly Elian Pena really is. What was to be just another normal Dominican Summer League game versus the Yankees affiliate, quickly became the “Boxscore heard around the World”. Pena fought back the criticisms and premature bust labels by producing the most legendary breakout games ever recorded by prospect when he smashed a grand slam, a 3-run homer, and a solo homer against the Yankees. 

3 Homers | 8 RBI -> “THE BOXSCORE HEARD ROUND THE WORLD”

Mets fans erupted in disbelief across every social media platform, they were telling friends and family about Peña’s incredible performance, regardless of whether they knew who Pena was or what the Dominican Summer League even was. Unfortunately for those non-Pena enthusiasts the news was just too incredible not to share.

And that was just the beginning…

If Pena followed up his breakout performance with league average numbers, Mets fans would’ve been satisfied, but the hot streak he went on for the rest of the season was nothing short of historic. Almost every day Pena began recording multiple hits or walks or stolen bases, as well as generating offense by scoring multiple times or driving in multiple runs a game. 

Multiple times a week Pena recorded monster games doing all of the above. Saving the best for last, Pena finished off his historic professional debut, the only way Elian Pena could, with his second 3-HR game of his career & another 6 RBI.

2025 SEASON STATISTICS:

| .292  BA | .421  OBP | .949  OPS | 9  HR | 36  RBI | 47  RUNS |  

| 13 DOUBLES | TRIPLE | 21 SB | 36 BB | 16%  BB-RATE | 16  K-RATE |

Pena started the season:  | 4 for 42 | => |  0.950  BA  |  

Pena finished the season going: | 48 for 136 | =>  |  0.352  BA  |

Pena hit LHP to a tune of (.324 BA) & hit RHP equally well (.284 BA)

Pena also hit well with RISP (.289 BA)

Pena only played 55 games for the season but had an incredible 14 multi-hit games (25%), & in 27 games (49%) he was on base multiple times.

Compared that to how Pena struck out multiple times in a game only 3 times (5%).

Despite the sluggish start to the season his elite plate disciplined was as advertised, 16% BB-Rate (MLB average is 8%) & 16% K-Rate (MLB average is 16%).

After a tough June (.186 BA), he posted (.306 BA) for July, and a (.404 BA) for August, as well as a (.509 OBP) & (1.296 OPS).

47 Runs and 36 RBI hitting out of the leadoff spot is impressive production for a teenager in his first professional season, so are the 21 SB (only 4 CS).

2026 OUTLOOK:

Mets couldn’t have asked for a better professional debut from their highly touted phenom, and it was confusing why they didn’t have Pena make his pro debut stateside, as they did with other recent I.F.A. signings Francisco Alvarez Ronny Mauricio. Pena was clearly a man among boys in the Dominican Summer League and looked ready to begin his career at the Florida Complex League at the very least. 

The removal of short-season Low-A ball rookie leagues might have been one reason or perhaps the Mets just wanted to give Pena one more summer to mature physically. At the end of the day, they have to be thrilled at how Pena quickly established himself as a premier talent, and how he was able to quickly overcome adversity. 

That is a facet of of player development you won’t find in box scores or talked about enough in mainstream prospect sites, but I assure you, from a organizational standpoint, it’s critical to assessing a player’s current abilities and future potential ceiling. That’s why teams like to provide prospects with extended looks at each minor league stop. 

They aren’t just waiting for a player to get on a hot streak so they quickly promote them. They’re actually waiting for the league to make adjustments to that player and see how responds when the hot streaks eventually end. Is that prospect able to quickly make their own adjustments when they hit a slump? Is that prospect able maintain a disciplined approach, despite failing to achieve the results they’d like? 

That’s why the prospects who accelerate thru the minors faster don’t always have video game numbers t every stop. In many cases the numbers may look pedestrian, because of peaks and valleys in their production. Prospects who can effectively manage the disparity in production during the peaks and valleys are the ones who can handle multiple promotions in the same season, because they can quickly make the necessary adjustments as the competition becomes more and more advanced. 

That is the type of developmental path Pena will be on, because of how well he was able to make in-season adjustments. Prior to his signing several scouts believed Pena was more than capable of making his MLB debut before his 21st or even 20th birthday. Even if that is the case the Mets have the organizational depth to be patient with their budding superstar and can afford to not rush him in a manner that becomes counter-productive. 

At the same time, generational talents like Pena, need to be challenged or the game becomes too easy and they risk that player becoming complacent. That happened with the Rays and former #1 overall pick Delmon Young, who was one of the premier talents of his generation, whose development was often criticized because they kept him in the minors too long. The same can be said of how the Mets handled Brandon Sproat. 

M.L.B. competition can never be duplicated in the minors, the best teams can do is subject young prospects with the task of facing older and more experienced competition, which is it is imperative the Mets continue to challenge Pena along his developmental path. Others might insist on a more conservative projection, but I believe Pena will finish the 2026 season in Brooklyn. 

If he continues to perform as expected he should be done with Double-A and Triple-A during the 2027 season, positioning himself for a potential MLB debut in September, similar to Alvarez. The 2028 season is when the Mets will undoubtedly decide on a full-time position for Pena because he will certainly be ready for a full-time position.

There’s two types of prospects in Major League Baseball:

The type of prospects who are talented and capable of providing solutions to MLB roster needs if they see a potential fit.

The other type of prospects are the 1%’ers, rare & elite talents that teams make room for when they are deemed ready for MLB reps.

Elian Pena is the “1%’er” caliber prospect and when his time comes, I assure the Mets will do whatever they need to do in order to make room for him. Until then, Mets brass and fans have to settle for imagining a lineup with multiple supremely talented players like Soto, Pena, Lindor, Alvarez, Jett Williams, and Carson Benge for at least a couple more seasons. 

Something tells me that the dynamic duo of Elian Pena & Juan Soto will be well worth the wait…