Paul Articulates - The cost of replacing Pete Alonso

There is a lot of buzz this offseason about what Pete Alonso will do.  Will he re-sign with the Mets?  What will he be offered by other teams?  What is his real value?  Was 2024 just an off-year or was it the beginning of his decline?  The answers to these questions are pure speculation because the story will not be known until it is history.

So without adding to the speculation, I thought it would be reasonable to determine all of the factors that the team must consider if they were to replace what Pete brings to the team.  Some of those factors could be obtained in a single replacement player, but no one has exactly the same game, so some of what Pete would bring to the team would have to be replaced by others in his absence.

What does Pete Alonso bring to the Mets?

1) A power bat for the middle of the lineup.  Pete has a career OPS of .857, driven by a .341 On-Base Percentage and a .516 Slugging Percentage.  He has hit 264 home runs in his career and driven in 712 runs.

2) A below average fielding first baseman by any published metrics but he has very good scooping skills for balls thrown in the dirt.  His fielding metrics are primarily driven by his lack of range (speed, quickness) and his tendency to rush throws to a pitcher covering which drives up his error rate.

3) A New York City fan favorite that brings in millions of dollars in attendance, branded merchandise sales, and advertising.

4) A generous personality who is very active in local charity work that enhances the team’s reputation.

5) A humble spokesman who represents the Mets admirably in all public appearances.

How do the Mets replace these five things if Pete Alonso decides to accept another offer?

1) A power bat for the middle of the lineup may be the easiest thing to replace.  We have already read many articles about players like Kyle Schwarber being available in free agency, so one could argue that the HRs, RBIs, and OPS could be replaced in full by a Schwarber.  Of course, Philadelphia’s DH, has not demonstrated any skills as a first basemen.  Others that have credible first base on the open market that have power stats would include aging players like Carlos Santana, Paul Goldschmidt, and Donovan Solano who are all 38 years old or above.  Those who are in their early thirties like Pete would include Rhys Hoskins, Ryan O’Hearn, Dom Smith, Josh Bell, and Ty France.  Only Hoskins, with a career OPS of .819 comes close to Alonso’s power production.  So clearly the offensive load would have to be carried in part by other Mets if one of these replacements were chosen.

2) A better fielding first baseman is certainly possible.  Of the players mentioned above in the power category, O’Hearn (+4 DRS), Bell (-4 DRS), Hoskins (+2 DRS), and Smith (-1 DRS) are average fielders which is somewhat better than Alonso (-9 DRS).   Having seen them play, only Smith stands out as someone on par with Pete for scooping balls in the dirt but they would add range and a few less errors.  For balls not scooped, the error goes to the player making the throw, so the statistical impact would be borne by the other Mets infielders.  The fielding gem out there is Ty France (+9 DRS), but of the five categories listed he is only going to solve one or two.  

3) Replacing one of the main faces of the franchise is a hard thing to do.  Yes, the team will still have guys like Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto.  But there was a certain connection between Alonso and the blue-collar Mets fans that would be difficult to replace.  Trade unions might boycott the project to move the fences in (wink).  In all seriousness though, there would be an impact to the revenue stream if the Mets lost Pete.

4) Both number 4 and number 5 are intangibles.  There are many players that contribute to the team’s reputation through their charitable work and their public persona.  There’s just no one quite like Pete – as humble as he is powerful and someone that cares about the city.  Like item 3, there is an economic impact to losing someone that draws fans closer to the team but this part is less quantifiable.

To summarize the five categories, the cost to replace Pete Alonso on the team will be difficult to bear.  Since there will always be a trade between power bat and slick fielding (unless we can steal Freddie Freeman), Pete will have to be replaced by more than one player.  Possibly a strong field, less bat first baseman in combination with a power hitting DH.  The farm has some candidates, but Ryan Clifford is not going to be ready to star in 2026 and others that could convert to the position need thousands of reps to acquire the necessary skills.

I am sure there is a very detailed analysis of all the potential candidates, their strengths, weaknesses, and calculated value to the club that exists in a folder on David Stearns’ desk.    As the free agent market develops over the next several weeks, that folder will become very worn as countless possible solutions are evaluated.  I hope that the outcome will be one that restores #20 to the roster.