With the news of Josh Naylor re-upping with the Mariners for 5 years at somewhere between $90 and $100 million it would appear to make Pete Alonso the pure number one first base option in the game available to the highest bidder.
Coinciding with this news came the report that Edwin Diaz and his representatives cite a 50-50 probability that the 2025 Mets closer will be in their bullpen for 2026 and beyond. Now on the closer side of things there are many more options available but losing Diaz would indeed be a big chip to swallow.
So let’s play a financial game. With the current offers on the table to Alonso and Diaz the Mets were prepared to fork over approximately $57 million in salary for these two star ballplayers. If the Mets indeed do not have these obligations then who could they afford to add in their place? Furthermore, if the dialogue about preventing runs is indeed accurate, then pitching and defense need to be upgraded as well.
Slugger
One of the things people sometimes forget is that 6 batters who drive in 80 runs each are just as valuable as 4 who drive in 120 each. The difference is that the 120 RBI hitters will command salaries that could spell bankruptcy for teams with less well heeled owners than Steve Cohen. By contrast an 80-RBI hitter is going to cost well under half that annual rate. Towards this end you can consider what it would cost to get a guy like Rhys Hoskins who is good for 25 HRs and 80 RBIs at likely a pay rate now of about $15 million or less per season. Is he a direct replacement for Pete Alonso? Obviously not. However, at half the pay rate him (or someone at that level) would open up another nearly $20 million in payroll budget.
Closer
We’ve all seen the best of Edwin Diaz who can be absolutely unhittable when he’s at his best. Yes, he does walk a few too many even then but the strikeout pitch is pretty amazing. Obviously with an opening bid of $90 million over four additional years he’s going to cost quite a bit to his perhaps new employer. By contrast you can look at guys either at the tail end of impressive careers like Raisel Iglesias, Kenley Jansen or Aroldis Chapman, or you could go in another direction to elevate a lesser known closer-in-waiting like Brad Keller. Keller earned just $1.5 million last year at age 30 during which he appeared in 66 games and finished the season with a 2.07 ERA. There are other options that are economical (including handing over duties to youngsters from the farm or converting already under contract Clay Holmes from good starter back to All Star level closer).
Starting Pitcher
Most folks have been drooling about adding the top pitching free agents like Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez and others of that ilk, bear in mind they will all be seeking contracts that approach what Gerrit Cole got from the Yankees — 9 years at $36 million per year for a total of $324 million. Having someone with a career 3.18 ERA would be a great addition but what if you found a couple of 3.60 ERA starting pitchers with an uptick in their performance metrics? Rather than banking $36 million per year on a guy who last season only made 17 starts, what if instead you got a pair of $12 million starters who would look far better than David Peterson, Sean Manaea or others in the current depth chart?
Center Fielder
Here’s where it gets very interesting. The Mets have attempted the solid glove-first approach during David Stearns’ first two seasons as the head honcho for personnel decisions. The first time around it was Harrison Bader who holds a career batting average of .247 and only managed .236 with the Mets. Then he turned to Jose Siri whose career average is only .206. In his pre-injury abbreviated trial with the Mets he was even worse. There are other glove-first centerfielders out there but if part of the deal is scoring runs as well as preventing the opponents from doing likewise it’s going to hit you deep in the wallet to attempt to bring in someone like Cody Bellinger. However it is entirely possible to find major league quality players better than the Stearns duo. Wait, it’s a trio. He added Cedric Mullins to everyone’s dismay last year as well — a career .247 hitter who was below the Mendoza line for the Mets. Maybe the POBO needs a GM to assist him with roster decisions.
16 comments:
Very valid points here. ❤️ the 6 with 80 ribbys comparison
Every day I became a bigger member of the Fuk deez guys camp
And... I truly believe the Mets have seen the best of Diaz
Sign or trade for a power 3Bman
Find a 20/80 guy for first
Keep trying to pry away either Skenes or Skubal
Stearns has a true dilemma. Benge they could probably sneak into the early season line up, Jett and Morabito by the second half of 2026, Clifford late 2026. If they had gotten MLB ready just a little sooner, the decisions might be a little easier. Tons of moving parts if Alonso and Diaz go. If they stay, the risk of albatross deals is real.
I agree that having multiple bats versus a single bigger bat would provide a more balanced and deeper lineup.
I have been tossing this around in my mind. What about a bullpen starting with some combination of Fairbanks, Williams, Helsley, Rogers? By using the Diaz moneys and the moneys necessary to add the other necessary arms? Add some lower leverage arms with options and arms able to go multiple innings?
The batting order needs a right handed bat to offset the current left handedness of the current batters. Is that Alonso? In the theme of your article, what about Bichette to play second and Hoskins to play first? (Hoskins can provide that clubhouse presence Soto talked about and is expected to sign a short term contact allowing for Clifford's advancement).
Thoughts on that 3rd baseman? Other than Bregman ? Could Baty be that 25 / 80 guy in this article?
Baty would instantly make himself more valuable as a commodity if he produced close to 25/80 as a second baseman where that kind of offense is less prevalent around the leagues.
I don't think so on Baty
Maybe but his defense is simply not adequate
I think your 20/80 person here can be found on another team's 40 and would only be able to be obtained via a trade
Helsley is a gonet
My gut says that Devin will sign a 2 yr deal with the Mets
Baty DRS
2022-24:... -9 DRS
2025: 2B +2 DRS
......3B +4 DRS
Mack -
Baty 3B +4 DRS. I believe that during 2025, Baty became more comfortable at this level. As you note, his defense improved significantly. I believe that will carry over into 2026. Also a sign of that comfort was his batting after the all-star game - .291 with 9 homers in 55 games. Extrapolate this over a full season, close to that 25 home runs. (Granted the RBIs were not there as he only had 20 after the all-star game.)
The Mets are at a point where they can either become way more expensive by signing more so called superstars and locking those positions for years which could work or go south very quickly.
They can also as suggested, trade the future for quick fixes which will then file for free agency at years end and have a high chance of signing with another team.
What is being ignored is the fact that on paper, the Mets had a great team last year and they still fell apart. Teams not only needs to be great but also have players in the minors that can come up and contribute in an emergency.
Any way you look at it, the Mets could trade for Skubal and still have an incomplete rotation. They can bring back Diaz and still have an incomplete BP. They can sign Bregman and still have an average team where current players have a tendency to disappear for large part of the year. They still would not have the speed that a Morabito would bring, would not the youth and promise that Benge would bring.
So at the end of the day, what in my view would be the best for the Mets right now?. Keep your best prospects, add where you can and find out once and for all which players you go forward with, which ones become trade bait in 2026.
That doesn't mean you don't adjust and do nothing for 2026. It just brings forward that you would have most of the team which fell apart in 2025 and could do so again in 2026.
Sign a couple of high end BP arms even if Diaz comes back. Sign a #3 type starter and find out what you have in Baty, Vientos, Mauricio, Benge, Sproat, Tong and others.
To me Sproat needs at least half a season in the ML before we start to see his best. Tong needs a half of season at the AAA level before he is ready. Lets start to put together the future team in late 2026 and complete it with free agents in 2027.
I still feel that a McNeil/Taylor CF to start the year isn’t a terrible option. Now with Morabito on the 40 man and Benge, why bother looking for someone else.
Put Vientos at first base and leave him there. Put Baty at 2B and enjoy better than Bichette numbers at a fraction of the cost. Now it’s easier to fill out the lineup. A righty DH and a third baseman. Can it be Mauricio? Probably not initially, but maybe later maybe not. Arenado has two years left. How about using him for a year and then we will see? I’m sure St. Louis would be quite pleased to get rid of him, maybe add a pitcher? Now onto DH… that should be easier now…
Very true…
Not a fan of projections based on small sample size. We don't know who Baty is yet. But it as much a mistake to underestimate than to overestimate. What Baty has indicated over his career is that he is probably a 15-20 HR guy. His RBI totals are hard to project as one of the most important factors is: how often does he get up with runners on base; how often with runners in scoring position. The incredible lack of balance in the Mets line-up last year surely had an impact in the RBI total of someone who batted 291 after the all-star game. Remember he mostly hit 7/8/9 in the lineup.
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