Reese Kaplan -- Sometimes Fans Pick the Wrong Scapegoat

It’s funny when you talk to fellow Mets fans to see how the tide rises and falls on various players with the majority of people opting to follow whatever the majority have to say.  Just as many are convinced that Brett Baty is the second coming of Brooks Robinson who will anchor 3rd base with his bat and glove, just as many are willing to push Kodai Senga out the door for a bag of balls.

Really?

Yes, it’s very clear that he has had issues staying healthy and with his arm motion he needs pretty much everything to be clicking properly for him to operate at the highest level.  Last season was a tale of two Sengas with his first several starts resembling the ace-level stuff he’s shown in the past and later in the year he was hurt and then demoted to Syracuse.  While the Mets were struggling to make up the one game deficit to make it into October baseball the powers that be felt they were better off with the nearly 5.00 ERA of Brandon Sproat and the over 7.00 ERA of Jonah Tong rather than taking a chance on Kodai Senga.

Now it’s highly understandable that the club has issues with the starting rotation (and the bullpen and the infield and center field and DH).  Given the limited history Senga has had in the majors it’s very easy to get out the broom and sweep him out the door as if he is the root of the problem.  But is he?

For his major league career in the USA he has made 52 starts which is about a year and a half of regular duty.  For those many opportunities he has a 20-13 record which looks pretty good.  His career ERA is 3.00.  He’s struck out 320 batters in less than 286 innings.  Ummm...those numbers are pretty impressive.

Now go take a look at the bevy of starting pitchers available in free agency or via trade rumors and compare them to what Senga has done.  Whether you’re considering folks on the auction block like Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Michael King, Shota Imanaga, Zac Gallen or even 43 year old Hall of Famer to be Justin Verlander and they are not pitching at that level.

Then there are the trade options like Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta, Paul Skenes or Tarik Skubal and evaluate what you’re going to have to sacrifice to make a one-year deal happen with no guarantee you won’t lose that newly acquired pitcher in free agency in 2027.  No one is suggesting Senga is better than Skenes or Skubal, but he has shown more than Peralta. 

Let’s also take a look at money.  Senga is in the midst of a contract with health clauses in it that could keep him in New York for 2026, 2027 and 2028 at a rate of $15 million per year.  Do you want to know who makes more than that?  Try Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea.  Now think again about the value you’re getting from Senga.

One major and somewhat surprising change made when the season ended was the termination of coaching contracts for almost everyone including pitching guru Jeremy Hefner.  Now it is understandable that someone needs to be held accountable for the horrific pitching the team experienced in 2025, but will a new coach have a better handle on how to keep Senga healthy and pitching to that All Star type of level?  No one knows, but it certainly seems premature to peddle Senga away off a bad year when the team right now only has Nolan McLean, Sean Manaea, David Peterson and Clay Holmes in the starting rotation.  Of that group you place great faith in McLean, moderate faith in Holmes, and then no one knows what to expect from Manaea and Peterson.  Compared to this group it would surely seem trading away Senga is not wise unless he leads to addressing another major need.