I promised
all of you that, as soon as the season ended, I would breakout and post my
current Top 30 prospects.
This is
performance based, not players that came to the Mets full of promise but have
only produced butterscotch pudding. A perfect example of a player that didn’t
make this list is catcher Ronald Hernandez.
I still like the guy, but based on what he did in 2025, I don’t like him “top
30 guy”.
Nolan
McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah
Tong (maybe) are not on this list. They have
graduated.
I will post them in each of my weekly Observations and In Focus posts… one player at a time… beginning with #30.
Today, we
move to #5:
5. RHSP Will Watson
23/years
old 6-1 180
7th rd. 2024 – USC
2025 – A/A+/AA: 28-G, 23-ST, 3-9, 2.60,
1.20, 121.1-IP, 142-K, 58-BB
Will Watson
is widely regarded as one of their breakout prospects in 2025.
He signed for
$281,300, just under slot value.
Prior to USC,
Watson attended California Lutheran University and San Joaquin Delta College,
where he was drafted in the 20th round by the Seattle Mariners in 2023 but
opted to return to school.
Watson's
journey to pro ball included a solid college season at USC in 2024, where he
appeared in 16 games (9 starts), posting a 3.93 ERA over 50.1 innings with 46
strikeouts, 27 walks, and a 1.411 WHIP.
Watson
profiles primarily as a pitcher with starter potential but could transition to
relief if command issues persist. He's praised for his competitiveness,
athleticism, and ability to miss bats,
2025
Performance and Rise
Watson's
first full professional season in 2025 has been a revelation, earning him spots
on Mets top-prospect lists. He began at Single-A St. Lucie, where he dominated
with a sub-3.00 ERA and high strikeout totals, including a career-high 7 Ks in
4.1 hitless innings in his debut on April 9.
Promoted to
High-A Brooklyn in June, he continued excelling (e.g., 8 Ks in 4.2 scoreless
innings on June 13), then reached Double-A Binghamton by late summer.
Scouts call
him a "wildcard" arm with quick-rising potential, though his fringe-average control (walks
remain a hurdle) could cap him as a mid-rotation starter or high-leverage
reliever.
ETA to MLB:
2027, but aggressive promotions suggest 2026 is possible.
Pitch
Repertoire
Watson's
arsenal is deep and versatile, featuring a five-pitch mix that plays well against both lefties and righties. He's
experienced a velocity spike in pro ball (up 2-3 mph across the board),
crediting Mets development for better extension and spin. He throws from a
low-three-quarters slot with a leg kick and long arm action, adding deception.
His fastball-centric approach keeps hitters off-balance, and he's noted that
opponents "haven't been comfortable" facing it.
Four-Seam Fastball
94-97 mph
(avg. 95)
Rise/run
profile with elite spin (up to 2,300 RPM);
explosive life up in the zone for whiffs. Primary pitch (50-60% usage).
Plus
grade; generates
swing-and-miss (often his best offering). Peaks at 97 mph.
Slider
84-87 mph
(mid-80s avg.)
Sharp, late
break with two-plane movement; pairs well with fastball for righties.
Above-average; key for stealing strikes and Ks
(recently "working really well"). 20-25% usage.
Cutter
88-91 mph
(upper-80s avg.)
New addition
in 2025; hard, late cut to tunnel with fastball/slider.
Fringe-average
but improving; used as bridge pitch (10-15% usage). "Still finding the
right spots," per Watson.
Changeup
87-90 mph
(upper-80s avg.)
Tailing
action with arm-side fade; firm but flashes plus potential vs. lefties.
Above-average; complements fastball for reverse
splits. 10-15% usage.
Curveball
78-82 mph
Deeper, 12-6
break as change-of-pace; less used but adds depth.
Average;
situational for early counts or stealing strikes. <10% usage.
Strengths: High-spin fastball and slider combo
drives his 25-30% K-rate; athletic delivery aids repeatability. Areas for
growth: Command (4+ BB/9) to unlock full potential—refining this could elevate
all pitches to plus. Watson's meteoric 2025 rise—from seventh-rounder to
Double-A playoff starter—marks him as a Mets system bonus. With the
organization's pitching lab, he could emerge as a dark-horse rotation piece by
2027.
Mack Ade macksmets@gmail.com
Highlights from last Ernest Dove podcast:
1. 100% healthy Zach Thornton
2. Also in pitching camp, R.J. Gordon, Jack Wenninger, Ryan Lambert, and
Brandon
Girton
3. Small, under 20 pitchers select camp.
4. Position players concentrated on
strengthening. Positive updates on Boston Baro, Eli Serrano III, Carson Benge, Jacob Reimer, AJ Ewing, and Collin Houck.
5. Camp now in the "dead period ".
6. Re: players that left the AFL early... Brett Banks is
100%, and DeAndre
Smith, is also 100% healthy
7. Austin Treosser may be injured. No details.
High-leverage
relievers still on the board after Ryan Helsley signing
Robert Suarez, who quietly put together is one
of the most efficient seasons in the league for the Padres. The 34-year-old
right-hander logged 40 saves with a 2.97 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP, giving him the
kind of recent track record teams crave in the ninth inning.
Joe Ryan
https://fansided.com/mlb/mlb/ranking-joe-ryan-trade-destinations-from-favorites-to-dark-horses
New York Mets
The New York Mets unearthed an ace in Nolan McLean,
but the rest of the rotation is in shambles. Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat aren't
ready. Kodai
Senga is too unreliable. Sean Manaea took a huge step back in 2025. Ryan provides
instant stability and production at New York's weakest position. The Mets'
offense can mash as well as any group in MLB, but unless New York can keep
opposing lineups in check, the wins won't come frequently enough in 2026.
Eric Cross @EricCrossMLB
Only two players in MLB history met all of
the below thresholds through their Age 26 season...
200+ Home Runs
650+ RBI
750+ Runs Scored
75+ Stolen Bases
.400+ OBP
Juan Soto and Mickey Mantle.
Ben Yoel @Ben_Yoel
A.J. Ewing
Mets biggest prospect rise in 2025. He could
be the CF of the future.
He stole 70 bases this year.
Mack – MM
LHRP Jose Castillo, who was non-tendered by the Mets in November,
has signed with Japan's NPB with the Chiba Lotte Marines. Castillo pitched for
four teams in 2025… the Mets, Mariners, Diamondbacks, and Orioles.
32-IP
3.94-ERA
Ugly Baseball Contracts
Sean Manaea, New York Mets: Manaea took a huge step
backward with his 5.64 ERA last season after dealing with a stubborn oblique
injury. He’s due $50 million over the final two years of his contract, though
more than $14 million of that is deferred. It’s still a high AAV for a pitcher
who is soon to be 34 and has only once posted a 3-fWAR season.
8 comments:
Manaea needs to grow his hair back?
Watson at # 5? That will be cool if he dazzles in 2026.
Soto is a bum. So, I guess, was Mickey Mantle.
Hopefully, AJ Ewing will someday surpass Patrick Ewing as NY’s greatest athlete named Ewing.
Love the Dove Camp Notes.
Manaea
I don't expect much here
I just look for some quality innings until either Scott, Sproat, or Tong is ready
Watson
I simply love this guy, but expect his best work will be done for another team
Ewing
Still my odds on favorite for, latest 2027 OD LF
Teammates of his are big fans of Will Watson. With enough pitch command he could be deadly.
I would consider calling the Cardinals and see what it would take to get Willson Contreras to bat behind Soto and play first base?
He is due $18 million a year for the next two years with a club option for 2028.
if he waves no trade clause and the Cardinals are looking to get rid of some money. I think Mark Vientos and Nick Moribito trade with suffice if we take on all the money.
Mack , I have always praised your work, with that said the way you have revealed your top ranking ( i can even tell how many there were has been super disjointed in its delivery) with that said Watson at 5 (wow)
I do trust your judgement and hope your right because that would mean a stud, a huge riser and something that could lead to super staff or killer bullpen or even a major piece in a trade that i dream of in the Lindor capacity... (Churios, or Witt Jr please)
I don't understand how Manaea can just completely lose his talent. He made changes to his delivery that made him great in 2024, then lost something in his mechanics in 2025 after returning from an injury that changed how his ball moved. With all the technology in Mets camp, I would have to think they can get him back to what he was.
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